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**Streaming Defense** Weeks 14-16 FF Playoffs (3 Viewers)

Dropped Cincy for Detroit. I think this sets up as the game Cleveland will win.
RG3 is back and his fresh legs will be something that Cincy did not prepare for in the cold weather. He isnt the best, but way better than anything they have had this year.

Cincy, Buffalo, SD and Pitt? Sure this team isnt good and the coaches stink, but the players at some point will not want to be an 0-16 team and fight like hell to win a game.
This is that game since they are on the road at Buffalo and Pitt and I think beating Cincy is easier than beating SD.

Cleveland has got to win a game right?
Im debating Cincy vs Detroit as well. Detroit at home vs Cincy on the road but Browns give up 3rd most points to defenses and Bears are only middle of the pack. Not sure really. I have a feeling both will disappoint as both games could be low scoring with lots of running.

 
I have to go with Cincy this week and my opponent picked up DET (I couldn't block because he had lower priority).

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Buffalo and SD give you CLE twice. Not sure there's a better duo than that for Weeks 15 and 16.
Yep, I have byes in my 2 leagues that have them (my 3rd has 8 of 12 in playoffs since total points is the bigger $$$ prize) and in one of them I picked up SD a week early to go with the Bills who I already had. That is the league with up to -5 points for points scored against, so going against the 2nd worst scoring offense is a bigger plus. I have the Bills and Panthers (SD not on wire) in another without a bye. 3rd league (bye) has deep benches, so waiver wire at this point is crap for Ds, but I have Minnesota/Arizona so I'll be a little better than meh. Well, Tampa is on the waiver, but they play @ Cowboys and @ Saints (who are much better at home). Those are not good match ups.

 
Familiarity likely works in HOU's favor. Mind you, these stats are have a healthy Watt factored in but HOU has owned Bortles at home over the past two years.

In 2014 Bortles was 14 of 33 for for 117 yards, no TDs, no INTs. He was sacked 5 times and fumbled but JAC recovered the ball. JAC scored 17 points in this game.

In 2015 Bortles was 17 of 32 for 239 yards, no TDs, 2 INTs. He was sacked 8 times and fumbled twice, he lost one of them. JAC scored 6 points in this game.

Edit: Watt accounted for 3 sacks in each game. Bortles 100% has nightmares about Watt.

Bortles has never thrown a TD on the road vs. HOU. He's been much better at home (5 TDs) but still turns the ball over, fumbling at least once every game. Again, I know the sample size is small and this isn't the same HOU defense but it's clear HOU's DST has put up points at home vs. JAC in recent history. I think they need to be up for consideration for week 15, especially assuming Clowney and Joseph are back.
Considering the options, this may be one of the better ones.  I currently have BUF rostered for the Cleveland matchup, but you've got a point in what BUF has done lately... it's not been pretty.

Still, this gives me pause with Houston:

 
Texans CB Johnathan Joseph has been diagnosed with two cracked ribs and a bruised lung.
It would seem Joseph is doubtful for Sunday's critical divisional showdown with the Colts. Now 32, Joseph has remained a near every-down player this season, and is a critical part of the Texans' solid pass defense. His absence would be a huge break for the Colts.
 
I'd be surprised if Joseph returns by Week 15.
 
I went with Cinci in the two leagues I'm playing this week, and where I could I lined up BUF and SD to take advantage of upcoming Cleveland matchups.  I agree the RGIII factor is unknown, but Cinci rarely gets trounced in a game... and it's Cleveland.  I'm not expecting a dominant performance from any of the upcoming DSTs against Cleveland, but this feels like a classic "don't overthink it" situation.

  • Cleveland has allowed the most sacks in the league with 45 through 12 games -- an average of 3.75 per week.
  • Cleveland has thrown the 8th most interceptions in the league with 12 -- an average of 1 per week
  • Cleveland has the 2nd most fumbles in the league with 9 -- .75 per game (they've only lost 3, but fumbles vs. lost fumbles are largely a factor of luck)
  • Cleveland is 29th in yards per game with 313 per week
  • Cleveland is 31st in points per game with 16.4

 
Rolling Miami in Week 15 against the Jets, and San Diego in Week 16 (fingers crossed I make it there) against the Browns.

A little unnerved by their weak performances last week, but benching either of them down the stretch feels like overthinking it.

 
Does the possible return of RG3 change the calculus for any of Cleveland's matchups (particularly against middle of the pack DST like CIN or SD)?

 
Missed out on Atlanta in one league, so God help me, I'm going with SF against Petty and the Jets. Only other options were Washington and Tennessee.

 
Considering the options, this may be one of the better ones.  I currently have BUF rostered for the Cleveland matchup, but you've got a point in what BUF has done lately... it's not been pretty.

Still, this gives me pause with Houston:

 
 
I'd be surprised if Joseph returns by Week 15.
Yes, I am going with Houston over BUF for week 15. BUF has not been getting it done on the defensive side of the ball. Plus their offense has been doing well so the defense doesn't have as much pressure on them. They were good to start the year but they are not good enough now that I trust them in the playoffs. 

In my league they put up 5 points against Oakland and only 9 against the Jax which was supposedly a no-brained. I can't trust them. 

 
Does the possible return of RG3 change the calculus for any of Cleveland's matchups (particularly against middle of the pack DST like CIN or SD)?
It does make me happier since I have SD for week 16. I just don't know if RG3 will last that long. For this week it would make me like Cincy more. 

 
Does the possible return of RG3 change the calculus for any of Cleveland's matchups (particularly against middle of the pack DST like CIN or SD)?
All we have on RGIII in Cleveland is what happened Week 1 @ Philly.  Now Philly at home was pretty good on D to start the year, but RGIII took 3 sacks, threw for 190 yards and an interception with no TDs.  Cleveland scored 10 points.

In the absence of other options (which is why we're all here to begin with), I'm going with Cinci this week.

 
Anyone risking the Colts this week? Looking to be talked out of it. They played great against the Jets but the Jets have given up. They get the Texans at home. If Luck scores like last week should put a lot of pressure on Brock. 

 
I prefer to take a home Def in the fantasy playoffs. Therefore, its looking like Det is the team. There are some sneaky starts but I just can't trust it.

 
Decided on Atlanta, although I really wish that was a home game.  I, for whatever reason, am really thinking about SF though as I expect them to force Bryce Petty to beat them and hold the running game in check.  

 
Dodds and Tremblay with projections out. Have Dallas ranked super high. Did the same last week.

Would love to understand what they're thinking (or what they're smoking).

Eli historically torches the Dallas D.

 
They can't stop the run. 

Ranked last I think. 
Oh yes, I'm well aware. Although I think that's at least slightly misleading. In the past few weeks, they've mostly shut down DJ and Ajayi. Howard had a huge fantasy day against him, but that was mostly on volume (in a game where the Niners had nothing going on offense) and a couple bunny TDs.

Don't get me wrong. I don't think they're good, and if I had Forte, I'd be starting him without a second thought. But I don't think they're the complete sieve they were earlier in the season (after Bowman went down). And Petty is a ####### joke out there.  You have to assume Niners will stack 8 in the box and hope to bait him into a few mistakes.

 
I don't want to start Seattle this week.  Can't decide between TN, Indy, or Pitt.  All 3 have juicy match ups.
I was looking at these matchups as well.  I prefer home cooking which eliminates Pitt.

Tennessee on the season has allowed fewer rushing yards, passing yards & points while having more sacks and forcing more turnovers.

HOWEVER: Over their last four games Indy has allowed fewer rushing yards, passing yards & points while having more sacks.  Tenn still has more turnover.

Indy has a more favorable match-up with Houston struggling so horribly on offense but the Denver offense aren't exactly world beaters.

Indy and Tenn are equally desperate for a win, then again Houston is equally as desperate with all three of them being tied at 6-6.

Denver is also desperate for a win but I give the desperation edge to the AFC South teams because even with a loss Denver would still be, at worst, in a tie for the final wild card spot.

Offensively Indy and Tenn are separated by 0.2 points per game scored (Tennessee generates more yardage but Indy has run a few more plays).  Time of possession Indy leads on the season by 40 seconds per game but Tennessee leads Indy by 47 seconds in ToP for home games.  HOWEVER over the last three games Indy has had a 3:03 edge in ToP (two home/one away for Indy, one home/two away for Tenn).

So after all that I think you can see why I decided to throw darts.

 
I'm looking for the biggest mismatch, where I can assume the DST team can pull ahead early and force the other into catch up, predictable plays.  Factor in lesser talent and the turnovers and sacks that are the primary point generators will show up.  Having an opponent that is playing for nothing is much more important than home vs. away.

Atlanta, despite their ordinary defense, fits this description against LA Rams.  Just like Green Bay last week.  I'm injured at other positions so need to play the higher upside at DST.

 
I have one I've been pondering that nobody has mentioned. Oakland. Playing KC, a team they know well that usually does not put a lot of points up and they have Khalil Mack- probably the best defensive player in the league right now. 

Am I crazy for looking at them? 

I'm in a 14 team league and a lot of teams carry 2 defenses because of limited transactions so there's not a lot on the wire. 

 
I was looking at these matchups as well.  I prefer home cooking which eliminates Pitt.

Tennessee on the season has allowed fewer rushing yards, passing yards & points while having more sacks and forcing more turnovers.

HOWEVER: Over their last four games Indy has allowed fewer rushing yards, passing yards & points while having more sacks.  Tenn still has more turnover.

Indy has a more favorable match-up with Houston struggling so horribly on offense but the Denver offense aren't exactly world beaters.

Indy and Tenn are equally desperate for a win, then again Houston is equally as desperate with all three of them being tied at 6-6.

Denver is also desperate for a win but I give the desperation edge to the AFC South teams because even with a loss Denver would still be, at worst, in a tie for the final wild card spot.

Offensively Indy and Tenn are separated by 0.2 points per game scored (Tennessee generates more yardage but Indy has run a few more plays).  Time of possession Indy leads on the season by 40 seconds per game but Tennessee leads Indy by 47 seconds in ToP for home games.  HOWEVER over the last three games Indy has had a 3:03 edge in ToP (two home/one away for Indy, one home/two away for Tenn).

So after all that I think you can see why I decided to throw darts.
:lmao:

But I also think it comes down to whether Siemian plays. If he does, he should able to torch Tenn's crappy pass D. If it's Lynch, Tenn just has to focus on stopping the run (which they're not bad at).

 
I have one I've been pondering that nobody has mentioned. Oakland. Playing KC, a team they know well that usually does not put a lot of points up and they have Khalil Mack- probably the best defensive player in the league right now. 

Am I crazy for looking at them? 

I'm in a 14 team league and a lot of teams carry 2 defenses because of limited transactions so there's not a lot on the wire. 
I like them better next week

 
I have one I've been pondering that nobody has mentioned. Oakland. Playing KC, a team they know well that usually does not put a lot of points up and they have Khalil Mack- probably the best defensive player in the league right now. 

Am I crazy for looking at them? 

I'm in a 14 team league and a lot of teams carry 2 defenses because of limited transactions so there's not a lot on the wire. 
I dunno, horrible run D, not great pass D, and KC doesn't give up a lot of points to opposing defenses (though Smith has been more mistake-prone in recent weeks). Oh, and playing on the road in TNF against a team that dominated them when they played in Oakland.

You're right, Mack could get you enough points by himself to make them respectable, but it's not a great situation.

 
I went with Cinci in the two leagues I'm playing this week, and where I could I lined up BUF and SD to take advantage of upcoming Cleveland matchups.  I agree the RGIII factor is unknown, but Cinci rarely gets trounced in a game... and it's Cleveland.  I'm not expecting a dominant performance from any of the upcoming DSTs against Cleveland, but this feels like a classic "don't overthink it" situation.

  • Cleveland has allowed the most sacks in the league with 45 through 12 games -- an average of 3.75 per week.
  • Cleveland has thrown the 8th most interceptions in the league with 12 -- an average of 1 per week
  • Cleveland has the 2nd most fumbles in the league with 9 -- .75 per game (they've only lost 3, but fumbles vs. lost fumbles are largely a factor of luck)
  • Cleveland is 29th in yards per game with 313 per week
  • Cleveland is 31st in points per game with 16.4
Also, Cincinnati's defense is #14 in points against @ 21.6. Not exactly great but it's still in the top half in the league and has been trending up with the last 3 weeks giving up 14, 19 and 16.

 
I have a bye this week but I have pre-emptively collected 4 defenses on my roster over the last 2 weeks.  Partly to put myself in the best position to play matchups in weeks 15 and 16 and party to play keep away from my competition:

Week 15 choices:

miami d @ NYJ, GB d @ Chi., SD d vs OAK, BUFF d vs. CLE.  

It's bw Miami and buff, and my decision will be based on who the qbs are at the time for the jets and Cleveland.  

Week 16 choices:

mia @ buff, GB vs minn, SD @ cle, BUFF at Mia.  

Clear choice here is SD but good to have GB as a fall back in case rg3 starts for Cleveland and plays well.   

 
It took me 13 weeks to realize this but outside of SEA and DEN (and maybe MN), I think all D's are streaming Ds.
Pretty much. I had Philly and thought I was set for ROS, but I just dropped them in two different leagues. They had been mediocre for weeks, but that Cinci game was the last straw.

 
Pretty much. I had Philly and thought I was set for ROS, but I just dropped them in two different leagues. They had been mediocre for weeks, but that Cinci game was the last straw.
I had Philly too... Picked them up off waivers when I realized they were the top defense for the better part of the first half of the season. They have been doing so-so, but my biggest issue is their playoff schedule is not very kind. I dropped them for Cinci this week. 

It took me 13 weeks to realize this but outside of SEA and DEN (and maybe MN), I think all D's are streaming Ds.
DEN was dropped in my league during their bye, scooped them up. We have short benches, but still... why drop a steady D forcing you to stream ROS. 
I don't know if I really like DEN this week dt TEN looking pretty solid. Picked up Cinci and tentatively going with Cinci

 
drafted HOU and held onto them all year, and already picked up SD for the fantasy playoffs.  got the bye this week too, so that works out great since neither of them have good matchups.

HOU has to be the play for week 15, but it's 16 that i'm working on now - SD @ CLE vs. CIN @ HOU.  my decision will be easy if AJ Green plays, but if he doesn't then the home vs. road factor makes this one look like a tossup to me.

 
I have a bye this week but I have pre-emptively collected 4 defenses on my roster over the last 2 weeks.  Partly to put myself in the best position to play matchups in weeks 15 and 16 and party to play keep away from my competition:

Week 15 choices:

miami d @ NYJ, GB d @ Chi., SD d vs OAK, BUFF d vs. CLE.  

It's bw Miami and buff, and my decision will be based on who the qbs are at the time for the jets and Cleveland.  

Week 16 choices:

mia @ buff, GB vs minn, SD @ cle, BUFF at Mia.  

Clear choice here is SD but good to have GB as a fall back in case rg3 starts for Cleveland and plays well.   
SD is great for week 16 but is a terrible option in week 15.

Buff is the choice week 15.

 
SD is great for week 16 but is a terrible option in week 15.

Buff is the choice week 15.
Yeah agreed. But really I think the best point in my post was to consider playing keep away by picking up a bunch of defenses with good matchups.  

Shed your end of bench depth and keep those defenses out of your opponents lineups. 

 
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Week 15 I'll have some troubles, assuming I make it- according to Yahoo I should blow my opponent out. 

A lot of those defenses are taken, so I am looking at potentially picking up ATL @ SF. Depending what's going on with SF that could be a good play. Something to throw out there

 
I have one I've been pondering that nobody has mentioned. Oakland. Playing KC, a team they know well that usually does not put a lot of points up and they have Khalil Mack- probably the best defensive player in the league right now. 

Am I crazy for looking at them? 

I'm in a 14 team league and a lot of teams carry 2 defenses because of limited transactions so there's not a lot on the wire. 
you're crazy.  i hope you're right, but i see this as a 27-24 game with kc running the ball all day.

 
I don't think I've ever mulled anything over more in fantasy than this season's week 15 and 16 streamers. Here's where I'm at..

Week 15:

BUF vs. CLE 

HOU vs. JAC (HOU has owned Bortles at home over the past 2 years)

ATL vs. SF 

Week 16:

LA vs. SF (LA has been a much better home defense this year)

TEN @ JAC (home/away splits scare me)

SD @ CLE

There has been other offenses hemorrhaging points to DSTs. Namely, SD, ARI and DEN over the past 5 weeks. Do we consider picking on them ever?

 
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I don't think I've ever mulled anything over more in fantasy than this season's week 15 and 16 streamers. Here's where I'm at..

Week 15:

BUF vs. CLE 

HOU vs. JAC (HOU has owned Bortles at home over the past 2 years)

ATL vs. SF 

Week 16:

LA vs. SF (LA has been a much better home defense this year)

TEN @ JAC (home/away splits scare me)

SD @ CLE

There has been other offenses hemorrhaging points to DSTs. Namely, SD, ARI and DEN over the past 5 weeks. Do we consider picking on them ever?
Everything hinges on how rg3 looks in week 14. If he is good rg3, Cleveland might not represent as tasty a matchup as we thought before so have a contingency plan in place.  

 
Hearing there's a decent chance of rain in Nashville Sunday with temps in the 40's. 

Siemian got in a limited practice. Hopefully if he does play he won't be 100%. 

 

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