wraith5
Footballguy
Thanx for posting the graph!This is definitely where we separate the men from the boys. After next week, I believe you will find me playing in the sandbox...
Good luck all!
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Good luck all!
fatness king
Footballguy
I scraped by this week, but most of my byes are done.
Good luck all!
Good luck all!
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
As stu and someone else mentioned above, you have to look at how many teams got cut (1000), the %OWNED heading into that week, and the number who survived....SFO - Gore on 74.7% rosters... 1000 cut.... expected loss 747... actual = 799 (+ 7% over expected)STL - SJax on 5.6%...expected loss 56 ... actual loss = 92 (+64%)CHI - T Jones...8.1%..... 81 .... 125 (+54%)CHI - C Benson...1.1% .... 11 ... 15 (+36%)BAL - JLewis ... 4.2% ... 42 .... 62 (+47%)BAL - M Anderson ... 2.1% ... 21 ... 25 (+19%)TEN - Henry ...... 6.0% ... 60 ... 68 (+13%)TEN - CBrown ... 9.2% ... 92 ... 116 (+26%)TEN - LenDale ... 2.4% ... 24 ... 28 (+17%)NOS - McAllister .. 7.5% ... 75 ... 99 (+32%)NOS - Bush ......... 30.9% ... 309 ... 357 (+16%)Please, never argue this point again. Evidence CLEARLY shows that the Gore owners held serve during their BYE week more than any other RB owner on BYE during the week.ETA - For all those who will inevitably ask, "where do those numbers come from." They come from the mysterious land of EXCEL for Windowsjoffer said:
Last edited by a moderator:
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I assume this is for all entries (including those previously eliminated).It'd be cool if someone with more time than I have could do it just based on the scores of the 4000 people left
-QG
Last edited by a moderator:
HALtheCOW
Footballguy
Wk1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7
25% 119.3 128.2 128.8 114.3 108.9 116.4 104.1
33% 124.1 132.2 134.4 118.3 113.5 122 108.8
50% 132.1 139.3 142.9 125.4 120.6 131.7 116.7
It seems like that the post helpful data is above. That is what the cut would have been each week based on the remaining entries and the listed cut lines.
This analysis does not factor the bye week/injury impact
The average 25% cut line has been 117.14. Injuries are increasing over time (IMHO) but the major bye issues are behind us. I figure it will be a hair higher
25% 119.3 128.2 128.8 114.3 108.9 116.4 104.1
33% 124.1 132.2 134.4 118.3 113.5 122 108.8
50% 132.1 139.3 142.9 125.4 120.6 131.7 116.7
It seems like that the post helpful data is above. That is what the cut would have been each week based on the remaining entries and the listed cut lines.
This analysis does not factor the bye week/injury impact
The average 25% cut line has been 117.14. Injuries are increasing over time (IMHO) but the major bye issues are behind us. I figure it will be a hair higher
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I don't have the data to produce this for only the players remaining (not without spending a few weeks exclusively on data entry), but I think I see where you are going with your thought.If that data were charted, I think the thresholds would drop based on the assumption that lots of good teams have already been eliminated (one bad week is all it takes), but really, it's variable hell trying to project what will happen.I assume this is for all entries (including those previously eliminated).It'd be cool if someone with more time than I have could do it just based on the scores of the 4000 people left
-QG
What's really interesting is the bye-week storm has almost passed. I built my team to survive bye weeks, and I have so far, but I did so at the expense of uber-studs, as it came to be. How well will my bye-week balanced roster do against imbalanced "stud theory" teams going forward?
Speaking of imbalances, I think I think I will go as far as Antonio Gates and Tatum Bell take me (and DeShaun Foster too). Beyond those two (three), my roster is similar to many others.
This is my last comment in this thread. I feel like a pitcher after throwing 5 innings of no hit ball. I'm going to go sit at the end of the dugout and not say a word to anyone.
Just for fun I looked at all the remaining rosters and computed the average %LIVE for all their players.Here are the teams with the lowest average %LIVE:BuckeyeArt said:
15847 29.9
19137 29.9
21726 29.9
13061 29.9
21515 29.8
18388 29.8
12062 29.8
17800 29.7
14926 29.7
17119 29.6
18118 29.4
21129 29.3
10997 29.2
21729 29.0
21867 29.0
20448 28.9
21790 28.9
19232 28.1
These teams can be considered the most improbable teams to have made it this far, but some of them might be looking strong going forward. After all, many of the players with the highest %LIVE scores are the ones who haven't had their byes yet. Since the above teams have low collective %LIVE scores, that might mean they're through their byes.
Here are the teams with the highest %LIVE scores:
16866 40.5
12120 39.9
11307 39.9
19935 39.6
13347 39.6
10934 39.6
13461 39.4
16502 39.4
19476 39.3
20194 39.3
18291 39.3
12403 39.3
16439 39.3
16809 39.2
18359 39.1
18898 39.1
19079 39.1
13018 39.1
10709 39.1
Some pretty good-looking squads there.
Last edited by a moderator:
Here are the most "centrist" teams. That is, the teams with the highest average %OWNED:
16837 31.2
12403 30.2
11006 30.0
10363 29.9
19524 29.8
17479 29.7
16001 29.6
19158 29.6
13815 29.5
17541 29.5
13629 29.5
12094 29.5
And here are the teams with the lowest %OWNED:
21302 8.0
20093 7.9
21293 7.9
21381 7.8
21880 7.7
16289 7.4
21515 6.6
18388 5.3
17115 5.2
16837 31.2
12403 30.2
11006 30.0
10363 29.9
19524 29.8
17479 29.7
16001 29.6
19158 29.6
13815 29.5
17541 29.5
13629 29.5
12094 29.5
And here are the teams with the lowest %OWNED:
21302 8.0
20093 7.9
21293 7.9
21381 7.8
21880 7.7
16289 7.4
21515 6.6
18388 5.3
17115 5.2
RenegadeGM
Footballguy
PRICE WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 5 WK 6 WK 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------Peyton Manning $29 16.8 32.2 20.9 20.9 16.1 0.0 33.0 Charlie Frye $ 9 19.0 17.2 24.5 19.4 7.8 0.0 10.6 Kellen Clemens $ 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Tiki Barber $61 22.1 17.8 11.8 0.0 16.9 25.7 18.6 Warrick Dunn $33 15.2 13.4 6.6 7.5 0.0 20.6 12.9 Jerious Norwood $ 2 6.6 6.7 0.0 16.6 0.0 2.1 7.9 Frank Gore $10 35.0 21.7 13.4 9.9 20.2 14.0 0.0 Reggie Bush $22 19.9 15.3 11.2 11.0 19.6 10.0 0.0 Doug Gabriel $ 1 0.0 0.0 18.5 15.7 2.7 0.0 13.5 Roy Williams $27 6.6 13.1 26.8 22.9 1.7 32.1 10.9 Keenan McCardell $10 2.8 11.6 0.0 0.0 7.7 12.5 9.1 Troy Williamson $ 4 11.7 16.2 7.9 4.7 3.1 0.0 2.8 Lee Evans $14 4.5 3.9 18.7 16.0 24.4 16.2 2.1 Isaac Bruce $ 6 11.4 12.7 10.9 23.0 4.3 9.5 0.0 Nate Burleson $ 6 4.6 1.7 14.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ben Watson $ 9 8.0 6.9 12.6 4.5 7.3 0.0 11.0 Tony Scheffler $ 1 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 Sebastian Janikowski $ 1 0.0 6.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 3.0 8.0 Stephen Gostkowski $ 1 5.0 6.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 Green Bay Packers $ 1 3.0 10.0 11.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 16.0 Detroit Lions $ 1 7.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 4.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 125.8 136.6 138.3 130.9 113.6 121.1 133.0 CUTOFF 0.0 123.7 125.3 106.8 102.0 109.5 101.2Still alive, although I see two problems:
1. My roster is like too many others.
2. My WRs are pathetic for Week 8.... no Roy
or even L. Evans.
My best shot is Tiki going loco from here on out, as his own% is pretty low. I'm not going to get much help from Gore, Bush, Dunn, Watson etc. as everyone has them.
That and Manning throwing 4 TDs every week
Gonna be tough to hit that increased cutoff with the WRs this week... fingers crossed.
1. My roster is like too many others.
2. My WRs are pathetic for Week 8.... no Roy
or even L. Evans.My best shot is Tiki going loco from here on out, as his own% is pretty low. I'm not going to get much help from Gore, Bush, Dunn, Watson etc. as everyone has them.
That and Manning throwing 4 TDs every week
Gonna be tough to hit that increased cutoff with the WRs this week... fingers crossed.
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
i think i'm done this week. if not, week 9 without lj smith, akers, or reggie brown could spell trouble. maybe i shouldnt have taken so many eagles, but all 3 spelled value to me, and so far theyve paid off.
ta2d4life
Footballguy
Present, and accounted for.........along with S. Jackson, and R. Bush. We'll see what happens along the stretch.
I completely agree with you regarding Gore owners. Because his buy-in was so low for a starter after the Barlow trade, he made a perfect RB3/RB4. I can't see anyone with any sort of FF knowledge carying him on their roster as a RB1 or RB2.
chris1969
Footballguy
Add me to the list, but...
Code:
<HTML><BODY><h2>Chris Graley</h2><font color=red>ELIMINATED IN WEEK 7</font><P>Contest questions? First check the <a href="[URL="http://footballguys.com/06contestrules.htm"]http://footballguys.com/06contestrules.htm">the[/URL] contest rules</a>. If your question is not answered there, then send email to drinen@footballguys.com .<PRE> PRICE WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 5 WK 6 WK 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------Jake Delhomme $15 8.3 9.1 <FONT COLOR=RED> 18.8 </FONT> 16.1 <FONT COLOR=RED> 12.4 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 24.1 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 18.9 </FONT>Daunte Culpepper $18 <FONT COLOR=RED> 11.9 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 16.2 </FONT> 14.9 <FONT COLOR=RED> 16.4 </FONT> 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chris Simms $10 4.0 13.0 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rudi Johnson $42 <FONT COLOR=RED> 17.3 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 28.8 </FONT> 7.7 <FONT COLOR=RED> 18.1 </FONT> 0.0 5.2 <FONT COLOR=RED> 11.5 </FONT>Reuben Droughns $39 2.7 15.2 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 14.4 </FONT> 9.8 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 10.0 </FONT>Willie Parker $32 15.8 5.6 <FONT COLOR=RED> 27.6 </FONT> 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 17.3 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 22.8 </FONT> 4.7 Frank Gore $10 <FONT COLOR=RED> 35.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 21.7 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 13.4 </FONT> 9.9 <FONT COLOR=RED> 20.2 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 14.0 </FONT> 0.0 Jerome Harrison $ 2 1.4 3.7 1.3 1.9 6.4 0.0 0.0 Terry Glenn $13 <FONT COLOR=RED> 12.1 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 21.4 </FONT> 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 24.6 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 11.1 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 9.7 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 8.1 </FONT>Travis Taylor $ 2 3.4 9.5 <FONT COLOR=RED> 14.2 </FONT> 7.3 <FONT COLOR=RED> 14.4 </FONT> 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 4.5 </FONT>Troy Williamson $ 4 11.7 16.2 7.9 4.7 3.1 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 2.8 </FONT>Braylon Edwards $ 2 4.3 15.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 22.6 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 13.5 </FONT> 5.7 0.0 2.6 Lee Evans $14 4.5 3.9 <FONT COLOR=RED> 18.7 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 16.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 24.4 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 16.2 </FONT> 2.1 Antonio Bryant $ 9 <FONT COLOR=RED> 15.4 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 23.1 </FONT> 7.6 4.9 5.7 <FONT COLOR=RED> 11.8 </FONT> 0.0 Donte Stallworth $14 <FONT COLOR=RED> 26.1 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 19.1 </FONT> 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ben Watson $ 9 8.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 6.9 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 12.6 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 4.5 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 7.3 </FONT> 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 11.0 </FONT>Heath Miller $ 7 <FONT COLOR=RED> 19.1 </FONT> 2.1 6.4 0.0 4.2 <FONT COLOR=RED> 2.6 </FONT> 8.4 Jay Feely $ 2 3.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 13.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 9.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 10.0 </FONT>David Akers $ 2 <FONT COLOR=RED> 6.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 6.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 8.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 7.0 </FONT> 8.0 6.0 3.0 Green Bay Packers $ 1 3.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 10.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 11.0 </FONT> 8.0 2.0 0.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 16.0 </FONT>Miami Dolphins $ 3 <FONT COLOR=RED> 5.0 </FONT> 2.0 8.0 <FONT COLOR=RED> 9.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 3.0 </FONT><FONT COLOR=RED> 2.0 </FONT> 4.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------<b>TOTAL </b> 147.9 153.2 146.9 123.5 123.1 112.2 92.8 <b>CUTOFF </b> 0.0 123.7 125.3 106.8 102.0 109.5 101.2 </PRE></BODY></HTML>
Shrek
Having a great season
This is pretty much the worst post in this entire thread.
chris1969
Footballguy
Aside from screwing up the code thing, what else was bad?I know it wasn't stellar commentary, but I figured once everyone saw the QB's, RB's, and WR's they'd figure it out.
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
PRICE WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 5 WK 6 WK 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------Michael Vick $17 19.8 26.3 12.6 16.8 0.0 19.5 30.7 Jon Kitna $12 11.4 17.6 25.9 20.0 19.1 17.2 25.1 Chris Simms $10 4.0 13.0 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ladell Betts $ 3 8.3 16.7 24.1 5.1 3.7 3.6 14.3 Kevan Barlow $ 6 9.5 5.6 9.1 15.5 0.8 7.8 10.9 Laurence Maroney $11 8.6 12.5 12.9 27.0 3.8 0.0 4.0 Frank Gore $10 35.0 21.7 13.4 9.9 20.2 14.0 0.0 Jamal Lewis $24 13.8 7.0 8.6 3.4 5.4 8.0 0.0 Donald Driver $36 16.6 24.9 10.9 10.0 5.4 0.0 25.9 T.J. Houshmandzadeh $23 0.0 0.0 30.4 13.5 0.0 26.2 19.1 Reggie Brown $13 10.0 9.3 15.6 10.1 17.9 31.6 17.7 Terry Glenn $13 12.1 21.4 0.0 24.6 11.1 9.7 8.1 Chris Chambers $39 10.9 15.8 11.8 13.2 9.7 17.1 4.9 Mark Clayton $ 6 3.0 4.0 14.8 7.4 7.7 27.1 0.0 Nate Burleson $ 6 4.6 1.7 14.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jermaine Wiggins $ 6 7.9 4.4 1.9 11.9 5.2 0.0 8.5 Alex Smith $ 6 3.8 0.0 11.2 0.0 12.6 10.0 1.6 David Akers $ 2 6.0 6.0 8.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 3.0 Matt Stover $ 2 9.0 14.0 9.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 Cincinnati Bengals $ 2 13.0 6.0 13.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 Miami Dolphins $ 3 5.0 2.0 8.0 9.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 138.1 151.2 157.4 141.7 107.0 146.4 135.1 CUTOFF 0.0 123.7 125.3 106.8 102.0 109.5 101.2I need Vick this week, Betts to see the field more and it would be nice if JLewis wakes up with the new uber offensive stud mind runing the offense now.
Last edited by a moderator:
dawgtrails
Footballguy
I've been playing with 2 WRs for the past few weeks (Glenn, Housh, t Williamson, depending on byes). I am amazed I am still kickin around.
I am carrying Fitz (is he back soon?), Stallworth (is he back soon?), and Jerry Porter (is he back soon?).
If any of them come around, I am looking good I think.
Brees/Kitna have carried me, along with T Henry and Ahman Green.
Get healthy boys!
I am carrying Fitz (is he back soon?), Stallworth (is he back soon?), and Jerry Porter (is he back soon?).
If any of them come around, I am looking good I think.
Brees/Kitna have carried me, along with T Henry and Ahman Green.
Get healthy boys!
gruecd
Footballguy
Not exactly, but I do have the Peyton, Bush/McAllister, Wayne trio (err, quad) that has worked surprisingly well for me.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Jerminator
Footballguy
Peyton/Wayne + Rudi/FWP/Gore here.Rudi needs to PICK IT UP! He seemed like GREAT VALUE at the time and he hasn't killed me (SA owners lament) but I'm hoping the CIN offense gets going here and he starts to roll.
Shrek
Having a great season
It was the code thing. It just made my head hurt. Do you know how to insert the code?
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
RB1 here.
videoguy505
Footballguy
120 yds + 2 rec vs the Bears D is pretty good for an RB3.
I disagree. Lots of high scoring games and a big cut. I wouldn't be surprised to see the cut somewhere around 125-130.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
136.2 + Glenn-4.1. Feeling pretty comfortable right now, the cut won't make it out of the 120's. Remember, only 25% get whacked so whoever posted the line about what the top 3000 scored last week is not using good analysis. It's all about percentages, although with the 6 team byes behind us the scoring will tend to creep up going forward just due to bigger potential rosters.
And yes, I do have Gore and he still DID count for 14 against my awesome Bears D.
Thinking his %own numbers continue to be about 75% after this week.
And yes, I do have Gore and he still DID count for 14 against my awesome Bears D.
Thinking his %own numbers continue to be about 75% after this week.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Manning 29.3
Willie Parker 19.1
Jerious Norwood 10.0
Reggiew Wayne 41.8
TJ Housh 13.6
C.Henry 19.1
Tony Shceffler 9.4
B.Watson MNF
Matt Stover 5
San Diego 11
158.3 with Ben Watson to go but I'll take Scheffler's 9 and call it a day. One of the major cuts this weekend, feeling pretty good but I expect the cut to be north of 130 for sure.
Get Kevin Jones back next week...hope Reggie Bush is OK.
Willie Parker 19.1
Jerious Norwood 10.0
Reggiew Wayne 41.8
TJ Housh 13.6
C.Henry 19.1
Tony Shceffler 9.4
B.Watson MNF
Matt Stover 5
San Diego 11
158.3 with Ben Watson to go but I'll take Scheffler's 9 and call it a day. One of the major cuts this weekend, feeling pretty good but I expect the cut to be north of 130 for sure.
Get Kevin Jones back next week...hope Reggie Bush is OK.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
For what it's worth, after doing a little research, the 75% cut mark in weeks 3, 4, and 5 were 128.8, 114.3 and 108.9 respectively. In weeks 6 and 7, with 6 teams on bye (and lots of widely held players at that), the 75% cut was 116.4 and 104.1. All that said, I'd guess that the cut will probably be somewhere in the low 120's, and very likely NOT above 130.
Last edited by a moderator:
C
CrossEyed
Guest
Well, I'm sitting at about 90 with Chester Taylor and the Minny D still to go. I'm a little nervous at this point, but still hopeful. 
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
147.2
Glenn -4.1
Watson -9.4
Gostkowski -4
Glenn -4.1
Watson -9.4
Gostkowski -4
radiohead417
Footballguy
I'm around 106 + T. Glenn (-4.1)/T. Williamson (-4.1) + J. Kasay (-2.0)
*crosses fingers*
*crosses fingers*
Last edited by a moderator:
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
sitting on 160.2 with Delhomme -21.7, Watson -2.2 Gostowski -7 still to play - I THINK/HOPE I'll see ya'll next week!
Erin Go Bragh
Footballguy
Vick 32.05
Green 27.3
Parker 19.1
Wayne 41.8
Housh 13
Toomer 2.2
Pope 3.2
Graham 9
San Diego 11
158.6 with the likelihood that either Glenn, Gabriel or Williamson improves on at least Toomer's 2.2 and Watson to improve on Pope's 3.2.
Green 27.3
Parker 19.1
Wayne 41.8
Housh 13
Toomer 2.2
Pope 3.2
Graham 9
San Diego 11
158.6 with the likelihood that either Glenn, Gabriel or Williamson improves on at least Toomer's 2.2 and Watson to improve on Pope's 3.2.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
On about 115 with:
C. Taylor and D. Foster (-9.9, -14)
D Gabriel (-14)
B Watson (-2.2)
Patriots D
Am figuring minimum of 125-130 and like my chances to make it through.
C. Taylor and D. Foster (-9.9, -14)
D Gabriel (-14)
B Watson (-2.2)
Patriots D
Am figuring minimum of 125-130 and like my chances to make it through.
Kleck.
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think the cut will necessarily be very high. There are only so many LT, LJ, Brees, Manning, and Wayne owners out there. Looking around, it's unlikely that a lot of teams own today's big performers. A lot of the Lundy, Droughns, M. Bell, Ahman, J. Horn, C. Johnson, and C. Henry owners already bit the dust because those guys have not been consistent. Colston had a big day, but was he even available in this contest? If so, I'm sure the percentage of owners who selected him is miniscule.
Likewise, guys like Greg Jennings, Cadillac Williams, Tiki Barber, Reggie Bush, Laveranues Coles, LaMont Jordan, Anquan Boldin, and Deuce McAllister had less than stellar days.
Likewise, guys like Greg Jennings, Cadillac Williams, Tiki Barber, Reggie Bush, Laveranues Coles, LaMont Jordan, Anquan Boldin, and Deuce McAllister had less than stellar days.
