Subscriber Contest is LIVE (3 Viewers)

[QuizGuy66]

Man after gobbling up Turkey this weekend, I think the Turk's gonna finally gobble me up this week

I'm sitting at 143.6 (I thought it was 144.6 as I had LT2 at 30.4, but above says 29.4). All I have left is Greg Jennings and he'd have to beat 9.8 to count.

Well I'll cross my fingers and hope for a happy surprise after my ride home from the holiday.

-QG

 

[Sol D]

It would be interesting to see how many of the 500 teams had a week when they were within 5 points of elimination. Again I am assuming and hoping that 171 points will make the final 500. I made the cutoff by 20 or more 9 weeks, by 14 points 1 week. But in week 6 I only made it by 1.8 points, I had 111.3 and the cutoff was 109.5.

Anyone else have a close call on the road to the final 500, better yet can anyone beat 1.8 points?

 

[The Big Donkey]

Anyone else have a close call on the road to the final 500, better yet can anyone beat 1.8 points?

Around 160 this week. Made the cut in week 4 by 0.2 pts

 

[nowayrams]

172.4 with Manning - 22.3

 

[Sol D]

Anyone else have a close call on the road to the final 500, better yet can anyone beat 1.8 points?

Around 160 this week. Made the cut in week 4 by 0.2 pts

Wow looks like we have a winner with the first entry! Obviously only .01 or on the cutoff number can top .02. Thank you everyone for playing.

 

[Silverbacks]

I'm sitting at about 142 with Darrell Jackson left to play. Vince Young came up big for me today.

Somehow, I don't think I'll be around another week.

Good luck to all!

 

[slayer666]

178.8

:fingerscrossed:

 

[franks&beans]

163.9 with Jennings (10.8), Akers (5) and GB Defense (12). Sort of feel comfortable, but with the regular cast of characters doing the scoring, the cut could be higher than folks think.

 

[Sol D]

163.9 with Jennings (10.8), Akers (5) and GB Defense (12). Sort of feel comfortable, but with the regular cast of characters doing the scoring, the cut could be higher than folks think.

Funny how some think the cutoff will be lower than last week. I agree it very well could be higher than last week. But when I look at the breakdown of scoring it appears the cutoff could be around 150 again.

 

[nashua55]

not looking good for my team. i have peyton , wayne and ackers. with addai vultering up the touchdowns, and a eagles team that has quit, manning will probably be out after halftime.

 

[HALtheCOW]

The 50% cut line last week was 161.

I am not feeling very good about my 153.

My 2 QBs (Simms is long gone) let me down with Delhomme (10.4) and Smith (9.4).

I guess I still have a little hope but it is fading fast.

 

[The_Borg]

I'm at 193.4 with Manning (-33.4). That should get me into the 500 club.

 

[ctriopelle]

Based on performances for the remaining 1000 teams, the 50%th percentile line for the whole season looks like this:

146.7 (week 2 numbers here)

155.4

126.5

125.2

142.5

124.0

148.0

149.3

154.0

174.0 (last week)

Of course the 174 is a bit misleading, because it is the top 50% of the top 66% of the teams playing, so its a bit skewed. I'd tend to better recognize the 161 reported earlier as more valid.

average of this list (subbing last week's number with 161) is 143.2. I'd be willing to bet the cut with typical performances from key players is somewhere 145-155 range. This week has a few of the big guys going big, but nothing crazy like last week especially from a quick glance at the WR corps. Hoping for a few points more from either Wayne or Akers, as I'm currently sitting at just over 152

 

[nowayrams]

glad to have you back ct. hope your tday was ok

 

[Sol D]

The 50% cut line last week was 161. I am not feeling very good about my 153.My 2 QBs (Simms is long gone) let me down with Delhomme (10.4) and Smith (9.4).I guess I still have a little hope but it is fading fast.

the week 11 cutoff was 149.7...and the week 11 50% of 1000 cutoff was 174.1. Are you refering to the week 10 500 team cutoff of 159.9?

 

[Darth Cheney]

I think that alot of FWP owners probably got saved by Brandon Jacobs. Which sucked for me as I ahd LT2 and MoJo going off and didn't need Jacobs.

 

[nashua55]

manning to wayne, might give me some hope. puts me over 150. but i still think the cut will be in the 160 range.

 

[Nugget]

Need some help form A. Green tomorrow and Stallworth tonight. 136 and change currently. Stallworth need to beat 6.7, Green 11.2. Not looking good.

 

[shuke]

150.8, need a huge game from Favre tomorrow night.

 

[CrossEyed]

I'm in trouble. My WRs were very average this week. I need a BIG day out of Favre as I still have Driver and Jennings. But right now I'm sitting at about 97 with my kickers (Feely & Gostkowski) and TE (Watson) still to play, along with the GB WRs.Not liking my chances to advance.

OK, somehow I miscalculated earlier. Right now I'm at 147.3 with Driver and Jennings left. They only have to beat 8.8 and 10.8 to add to my score. So while I'm still not feeling real confident, I think I still have a shot, especially when it comes to Driver. He could easily add 20 points to my score the way Favre has locked onto him in earlier games this year.

 

[urbanhack]

 

[ctriopelle]

The 50% cut line last week was 161. I am not feeling very good about my 153.My 2 QBs (Simms is long gone) let me down with Delhomme (10.4) and Smith (9.4).I guess I still have a little hope but it is fading fast.

the week 11 cutoff was 149.7...and the week 11 50% of 1000 cutoff was 174.1. Are you refering to the week 10 500 team cutoff of 159.9?

50% of all active 1500 players was 161 (750th place of 1500). Key stat to follow in this is percent of ACTIVE scores for a given week of play. However, as we get deeper into the contest and a lot of the teams get more "similar", it is also important to watch how the remaining group of 1000 performed on a given week. Only oddity is last week, which set the scoring for our current group. By definition the bar is set unnecessarily high by taking the top 50% of the remaining 1000 as it actually takes the top 33% of the 1500 participants.Please see my above post as to how the current crop of players has looked for top 50% of scores throughout the season.

 

[ctriopelle]

oh yeah, need to add that Wayne's TD put me over 160 by my buzzed addition skills, so I think we may have a ticket punched!

 

[urbanhack]

I need another Manning to Wayne score to have a chance.

 

[nowayrams]

might get it now here come the eagles

 

[nowayrams]

tick tick tick run run run

 

[C-Pod]

Currently at 165.8 plus SEA Defense (-12).

I hope that's enough. This could easily be the highest (and cruelest) cut line considering the high ownership % of some big performers this week. (Gore, TJ Housh, Glenn, Watson, Miami D)

I forget how many LT2 owners also have Gore. They're moving on to the top 500.

 

[C-Pod]

In the final 500 Watson will probably be owned by over 95%.

And Frank Gore will be owned by another ridiculous percentage.

 

[levinakl]

yikes, I hope the ownership % for Addai is low (Hoping the Gore-Jacobs combo gets me through!)

 

[nashua55]

wish the colts would get called for a hold. damn no passes on this last drive, come on manning throw the ball one more time.

 

[nashua55]

eagles defense sucks. good luck to those moving on. i dont think my 154 will be enough

 

[Sol D]

The 50% cut line last week was 161. I am not feeling very good about my 153.My 2 QBs (Simms is long gone) let me down with Delhomme (10.4) and Smith (9.4).I guess I still have a little hope but it is fading fast.

the week 11 cutoff was 149.7...and the week 11 50% of 1000 cutoff was 174.1. Are you refering to the week 10 500 team cutoff of 159.9?

50% of all active 1500 players was 161 (750th place of 1500). Key stat to follow in this is percent of ACTIVE scores for a given week of play. However, as we get deeper into the contest and a lot of the teams get more "similar", it is also important to watch how the remaining group of 1000 performed on a given week. Only oddity is last week, which set the scoring for our current group. By definition the bar is set unnecessarily high by taking the top 50% of the remaining 1000 as it actually takes the top 33% of the 1500 participants.Please see my above post as to how the current crop of players has looked for top 50% of scores throughout the season.

Thanks for the explaination. Much appriciated. Now I am starting to worry that 171 will not be enough... please be enough... please!

 

[ctriopelle]

yikes, I hope the ownership % for Addai is low (Hoping the Gore-Jacobs combo gets me through!)

1.4% so 14-15 guys

 

[HALtheCOW]

C-Pod Posted Today, 12:04 AM Currently at 165.8 plus SEA Defense (-12).I hope that's enough. This could easily be the highest (and cruelest) cut line considering the high ownership % of some big performers this week. (Gore, TJ Housh, Glenn, Watson, Miami D)I forget how many LT2 owners also have Gore. They're moving on to the top 500.

Actually, I am a LT2/Gore owner who is in big trouble. I also had MJD on my RB bench with 23.5. The problem is that I only got 10.4 from my QB (Delhomme). I am only at 153. I am afraid that it will not be quite enough. Good Luck to Me Tommorow with Jennings (-10.1) and Good Luck to everyone who makes the final 500.

 

[ctriopelle]

Thanks for the explaination. Much appriciated. Now I am starting to worry that 171 will not be enough... please be enough... please!

171 better be enough! I'm really planning on 160 being enough!

 

[C-Pod]

yikes, I hope the ownership % for Addai is low (Hoping the Gore-Jacobs combo gets me through!)

Only 1.4% ownership for Addai.I'd be surprised if all 14 of those guys aren't back next week.

Hat Tip to ctriopelle

 

[ctriopelle]

let the waiting game begin....betting the number from Drinin pops up tomorrow morning at about 150-155

 

[nashua55]

my unoffical tally is 156.9, i think i might be close, but i have a bad feeling the graham missed extra is going to cost me. once again good luck to everyone that makes the cut. i think i am done.

 

[my man otis]

162.35 with no QB pts

probably done, but might sqweak through by fractions.

 

[nowayrams]

I wamt to be the team in the finals that has no Gore, no Watson and no LT. Will be there any.

I'm 2 of 3 with 172 this week.

 

[Sol D]

Guesstimate - 135.7 is the cutoff. I will probably be just short.

Do you still think the cutoff will be 135.7? I'm guessing more in the 150-160 range.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think some are overestimating the cutoff this week. High ownership players move the needle, and I don't think this week measures up to last week.

Gore+Watson (80%+) combined for 46.2 last week, 47.4 this week - a difference of just 1.2

Next in RB ownership is Parker (62.2%) who had 22.3 last week but just 5.7 this week.

Next is LT (32.7%) who had 44.9 last week and 29.4 this week.

Next is Bush (29.4%) who had 18.9 last week and 7.5 this week.

Brandon Jacobs (25.6%) does boost the number with his 20.8 pts.

Next, Rudi (18.8%) had 12.8 last week and 13.4 this week, pretty close.

Maroney (18.1%) provides a boost with his 17.8 points.

No other RB is owned by 15%+ of remaining owners. Jacobs and Maroney this week don't make up for reductions for Parker, LT, and Bush.

High ownership QBs were down some this week overall from last week.

Palmer (31.9%) had 24.6 last week and 25.0 this week.

Delhomme (26.7%) had 12.2 last, 10.4 this.

Kitna (24.9%) had 11.2 last, 15.6 this.

Rivers (24.6%) had 17.2 last but just 5.6 this.

Peyton Manning (22.4%) had 19.5 last but just 12.2 this.

No other scoring QB is owned by 15%+ of remaining owners. Palmer was about the same, Delhomme and Kitna wash, and both Rivers and Manning are lower - Rivers by a lot.

High ownership WRs were also low overall this week. Among 15+% players:

Glenn (51.6%) boosts the number with his 24.9 compared to 13.8 last week, but

Evans (45.6%) lowers it a lot more with his 10.8 compared to 49.5 last week.

Williamson (44.8%) put up 0 this, 5.5 last (not likely a factor either week).

Edwards (43.1%) had 4.9 this week but 19.9 last week.

Houshmandzadeh (40.3%) 20.9 this, way up from 3.5 last.

Jennings (38.7%) plays Monday, could boost the number, had just 3.6 last week.

Gabriel (31.5%) not a factor either week.

Roy Williams (27.5%) had 18.6 this, better than 11.9 last.

Michael Clayton (27.2%) had 3.9 this, 2.9 last - not a factor

Wayne (25.1%) had 17.7 this, 24.1 last week.

Bryant (24.4%) had 7.3 this, 4.1 last - not much of a factor.

Wilford (16.5%) had just 2.2 this week, and 12.2 last week.

So, among 15%+ WRs, Glenn was up but also highly owned Evans was way down, Roy W was up but Wayne and Wilford down, Housh way up but Edwards way down.

TEs: Watson was mentioned at the top, and no other TEs will move the needle since Watson is so highly owned and scored so high. Only Heap, Cooley, and Gates were close, and none are owned by even 5%.

None of the nine 10%+ PKs who played scored in double digits, with Josh Brown still to go. Among those, the highest owned are:

Gostkowski (31.8%) 5.0 both weeks.

Feely (19.6%) 3.0 this week, 4.0 last.

Akers (18.9%) 3.0 this, 7.0 last.

Except for Bal, no DT scored more than 14 this week, and Bal is owned by just 4.4%.

Those owned by 12%+ include:

Miami (29.6%) 12.0 this, down from 21.0 last week.

Cincinnati (24.4%) 14.0 this, 16.0 last.

New York Giants (14.9%) 6.0 this, 2.0 last

New England Patriots (12.1%) 9.0 this, 6.0 last.

Miami's drop will outweigh anyone else's increase.

Conclusion is that numbers overall are going to be down from last week. I realize that the cut line is 1/2 rather than 1/3, but I don't expect half of the 1,000 owners to total 150+ this week based on what I describe above. I think we're looking at low to mid 140s.

 

[videoguy505]

Dear Gawd I hope you're right about mid 140s. Sweating here with 161.4 and Hasselbeck (-11) yet to go. It's my highest score ever (just beating my 160.7 last week), and I was feeling a little bit confident that I was peaking at just the right time.

 

[Doug Drinen]

let the waiting game begin....betting the number from Drinin pops up tomorrow morning at about 150-155

Preliminary and unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 153.8

 

[Mapmaker]

In with 175+



See ya all next week !

 

[fflnut]

let the waiting game begin....betting the number from Drinin pops up tomorrow morning at about 150-155

Preliminary and unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 153.8

Wow, good call ctriopelle. Quite nasty, I'm sitting at 154.6 right now with Jennings left to go. He has to get over 20.9 to have an impact though, so I think I may be in trouble.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Well at least I got the puncher's chance. I sure hope that Jennings gets to count for you as I have 143.6 with just Jennings - 9.8 to go. By my calculations, if Jennings counts for you I'll be ahead of you by .1

Hopefully you'll make the cut and have Jennings count toward it

C'mon Turk, pass me by one last time!!!

-QG

 

[Kirby]

let the waiting game begin....betting the number from Drinin pops up tomorrow morning at about 150-155

Preliminary and unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 153.8

152.8 + (Josh Brown -3)

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm in at 151, but with Jennings and Packer D left to go. Engram is out right?

 

[ScoobySnack]

I am done with 159.6 and praying for a real low scoring game tonight