Here's my take. SEA has a streak of 55 games of having held the lead at some point in each game. That streak will end. IMO, people are underestimating just how peeved NE is over the cheating label and they will come out extra motivated and moving people off their spot. Think NOS in their first game after Hurricane Katrina.
Defensively, Pats sell out to stop the run. Keep guys in the box, keep Wilson in the pocket. I would guess the Pats play a lot of man to man on early downs and zone in longer passing situations. Take the approach that they will make Wilson have to throw a lot to beat them. Unlike the game from 2012, the Pats have real CBs that will make a huge difference this time around. Lynch doesn't go crazy. Still could get 100 yards rushing but it would have to be on 30-35 carries.
Offensively, Gronk will be mostly neutralized and NE won't care with him being double teamed. They have other options and will be happy to throw to the other guys (Edleman, LaFell, Amendola, Wright, Vereen). I would also guess the Pats will go to bulk size formations with an extra lineman and use Gronk as a blocker and thus have a 7 man wall for Blount to run behind. Key guys in SEA secondary are more hurt than they are leading on and could make a difference.
Pats get up 14-3 in the first quarter. Both teams add a FG in the second to make it 17-6 at the half. Both teams get a TD in the third to make it 24-13 going into the 4th. SEA gets a garbage time TD in the last 30 seconds to cut it to 24-20. Unlike GB, Pats recover an onside kick to win. If the Pats are ahead by more than a score in the second half and hold on to the football (PSI be damned), NE takes this one.