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Super Bowl 49 discussion thread: Seahawks vs Patriots (Poll added) (1 Viewer)

Who do you think will win?

  • Seahawks

    Votes: 118 41.5%
  • Patriots

    Votes: 166 58.5%

  • Total voters
    284
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
Lynch picked up the yardage 85% of the time this year, and the Pats gave it up 81% of the time. It's a terrible call.
Ok, call it 80%. But when the pats play run, they must stop it at a slightly better clip, right? So if you run into their run d, maybe you convert less than 80% of the time. But if you run into their pass d, you convert slightly better than 80%. same thing if you pass into a pass d or pass into a run d.On that down, the patriots were "supposed to be" in a run d. your odds of converting a pass there were better than average.

But if they had run it and failed, they would have had to use thwir last time out. And now they have to pass on the following down because if they don't, the game might be over before you get another shot.

so while i agree that the run is a higher percentage play, if you don't convert the run, you get a low percentage pass play and then all your chips are in on fourth down.

So while I agree that the run is the higher percentage play in a vacuum, I still think the pass made sense. Kudos to the pats for figuring it out and stopping it.
An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day
 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.

 
Props to carroll for owning that call.

Personally i think it was a great call - use up all the clock them take your shot. if it's incomplete, you still have all your time left and a timeout for lynch to run. If you run it you only get three more plays and youre forced to go for three passes in a row because the clock is ticking. But if you pass on first you give yourself an extra shot.

I also think that was belichicks motive for letting the clock run. He wanted to bait them into the pass and it worked.

Just an incredible chess match to watch.
It was 2nd down and they had 1 TO, so not following you there.
if you run and don't make it you have to use your t.o. then you cant afford to run again until fourth down. if you pass and don't make it you can do either. that's why he threw it. You want flexibility on every play to put maximum pressure on the defense.
That formation was bunched so tight that there was a really ridiculously small window, by design. They should've gone read option because Russell would've had the option to chuck it out of bounds. Just a crazy call to dial up that formation. Brady would been checking to a QB sneak (unless Thatold Simon was in the slot).
Why couldn't Wilson have thrown it away in the play called? It was essentially a 1 read play. Once it was clear Butler wasn't getting picked and is jumping the route he should have just chucked it out of the end zone.
The call was a bunch formation quick hit. Think of how many things can go wrong there. It's designed to make a split second decision; but they really had a bit more time than that. Check to an option and just extend the play and throw it away if there's nothing there. Or hand it to the guy the eats up large chunks of grass routinely late in the game. The call was just bad; but so was Russell's read.
If it's me, I call a read option there and give Wilson an opp to throw the ball away if it's not there. Still, I don't think the call is terrible because the matchup favors them, normally. The thing is, pick plays are VERY successful against man coverage. They are designed to beat man cover as a matter of fact. There is no point picking zone D because they just pass the threat one to the next zone. NE was playing man coverage. You don't like the play call, fine. All this worst call in the world stuff is knee jerk hyperbole, though. Schematically, it wasn't a bad play call at all. They had skill advantage with 3 WR vs GL. They also had a play designed to beat man coverage and NE played man coverage. Butler just man an incredible play. It's a shame we've come to a point where good defense can't be appreciated. How would Lynch have had 3 shots? They only had 1 TO, correct? If he doesn't get it on that down they are pretty much locked into throwing the next few downs and maybe run again on 4th.

 
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Where's my boy ScottyDog??? :lmao:

I told you once and I'll say it again. Wilson is a good QB, but Brady is a GREAT QB and it showed tonight!

Eat it salty haters!

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
Lynch picked up the yardage 85% of the time this year, and the Pats gave it up 81% of the time. It's a terrible call.
Ok, call it 80%. But when the pats play run, they must stop it at a slightly better clip, right? So if you run into their run d, maybe you convert less than 80% of the time. But if you run into their pass d, you convert slightly better than 80%. same thing if you pass into a pass d or pass into a run d. On that down, the patriots were "supposed to be" in a run d. your odds of converting a pass there were better than average.

But if they had run it and failed, they would have had to use thwir last time out. And now they have to pass on the following down because if they don't, the game might be over before you get another shot.

so while i agree that the run is a higher percentage play, if you don't convert the run, you get a low percentage pass play and then all your chips are in on fourth down.

So while I agree that the run is the higher percentage play in a vacuum, I still think the pass made sense. Kudos to the pats for figuring it out and stopping it.
:goodposting: The numbers thrown out are rather meaningless because there is not factoring in the success rate vs personal. That's how teams/coaches make real life decisions. They know the packages and personal groupings that favor them. What is the success rate for run/pass when it's 3 WR vs. GL? I'm guessing nobody here really knows but I assure you Sea and NE did. It's rather clear from post game that's what influenced Sea in their decision.

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.
Really? There was 59 seconds on the clock when Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle was in no hurry to run that 2 nd down play.
 
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If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
Lynch picked up the yardage 85% of the time this year, and the Pats gave it up 81% of the time. It's a terrible call.
Ok, call it 80%. But when the pats play run, they must stop it at a slightly better clip, right? So if you run into their run d, maybe you convert less than 80% of the time. But if you run into their pass d, you convert slightly better than 80%. same thing if you pass into a pass d or pass into a run d.On that down, the patriots were "supposed to be" in a run d. your odds of converting a pass there were better than average.

But if they had run it and failed, they would have had to use thwir last time out. And now they have to pass on the following down because if they don't, the game might be over before you get another shot.

so while i agree that the run is a higher percentage play, if you don't convert the run, you get a low percentage pass play and then all your chips are in on fourth down.

So while I agree that the run is the higher percentage play in a vacuum, I still think the pass made sense. Kudos to the pats for figuring it out and stopping it.
No idea how accurate it is, but saw that Lynch converted 17/20 3rd or 4th and one/goals this year. And the Pats were dead last in stopping them (81% against). They had almost a minute and a timeout left after 1st down. Time to run Lynch three more times.

Don't get beat on your 2nd pitch. When you really need an out throw your best stuff. Lynch is the Seahawks' best stuff.

 
I wish there was a better we are the champions song than "We Are the Champions" but that's what I've got stuck in my head...

 
If Lynch gets the ball on the 1 to win the SB he scores on 2nd down, 3rd down, and 4th down, and you could run that play 50 more times and he scores every time.

It doesnt matter what the matchups said, the scheme or anything else. Football is a game of inches and no one is better equipped to get you 36 inches than the guy they had lined up that didnt get the ball.
He doesn't score every time.

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.
Really? There was 53 seconds on the clock when Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle was in no hurry to run that 2 nd down play.
They could've gone no huddle and maybe saved 10 seconds but i still don't think they could've run 3 plays. Maybe, it would've been close and their play calls would've been rushed.

 
Todem said:
FUBAR said:
Todem said:
Old Smiley said:
Seriously. Best Superbowl ever?
Hell no.
One of the best for sure.What else could you want?

HOF QB, one of the best ever.

Rising QB

Great defense

guy from nowhere tearing it up

a couple huge WTF moments
One of the best...yes. But not the best.I put SF/Cincy (88) and NYG/NE ahead of that one. Throw in Dallas/Pittsburgh (78) as well.
steelers zona

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.
Really? There was 53 seconds on the clock when Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle was in no hurry to run that 2 nd down play.
They could've gone no huddle and maybe saved 10 seconds but i still don't think they could've run 3 plays. Maybe, it would've been close and their play calls would've been rushed.
Three plays in 45 seconds is easy with a time out.

 
Brady = GOAT

Belichick = Greatest coach of all time

They can both ride off into the sunset now and I won't even care. #### "Spygate" and #### "Deflategate". The controversy is over.

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.
Really? There was 53 seconds on the clock when Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle was in no hurry to run that 2 nd down play.
They could've gone no huddle and maybe saved 10 seconds but i still don't think they could've run 3 plays. Maybe, it would've been close and their play calls would've been rushed.
Three plays in 45 seconds is easy with a time out.
maybe you're right.

 
How much longer are we going to be subjected to the idiocy that is Chris Berman. Its hilarious because he ask a question and players don't even acknowledge him.

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
That actually makes some sense. That last play occurred with only 25 seconds left. And that's why Belichek didn't call a time out.
Nope there was almost a minute left after Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle let 25 seconds or so run off the clock as they were lining up.
Just watched the replay. they just went back to the huddle and called the play pretty quickly. I don't think they'd have time to work in 3 rushing plays.
Really? There was 53 seconds on the clock when Lynch was tackled on 1st down. Seattle was in no hurry to run that 2 nd down play.
They could've gone no huddle and maybe saved 10 seconds but i still don't think they could've run 3 plays. Maybe, it would've been close and their play calls would've been rushed.
I was wrong watched the highlights again on NFL.com and there was actually 59 seconds which should be plenty of time to get 3 plays in. I don't even mind a pass play but why not do a play action fake to Lynch and roll Wilson out with a run pass option? Butler, a rookie DB, knew that slant was coming and made a great play.

 
If a run is 60% likely to score and a pass 40%, you're better off running. No question. But if your choice is between two runs, or a pass and two runs, then you call a pass first. Because if you run first, you have to call a pass next or risk only getting two plays.

And if a pass on THAT down is more like 60% (because everyone expects a run), and only 40% on the following down (when you know its coming because they can't stop the clock again), then passing is the obvious choice. Its just good coaching.

And knowing all that, the pats were ready for the pass.

It's going to be quake forever, but I think it's good coaching on both sides.
Lynch picked up the yardage 85% of the time this year, and the Pats gave it up 81% of the time. It's a terrible call.
Ok, call it 80%. But when the pats play run, they must stop it at a slightly better clip, right? So if you run into their run d, maybe you convert less than 80% of the time. But if you run into their pass d, you convert slightly better than 80%. same thing if you pass into a pass d or pass into a run d.On that down, the patriots were "supposed to be" in a run d. your odds of converting a pass there were better than average.

But if they had run it and failed, they would have had to use thwir last time out. And now they have to pass on the following down because if they don't, the game might be over before you get another shot.

so while i agree that the run is a higher percentage play, if you don't convert the run, you get a low percentage pass play and then all your chips are in on fourth down.

So while I agree that the run is the higher percentage play in a vacuum, I still think the pass made sense. Kudos to the pats for figuring it out and stopping it.
:goodposting: The numbers thrown out are rather meaningless because there is not factoring in the success rate vs personal. That's how teams/coaches make real life decisions. They know the packages and personal groupings that favor them. What is the success rate for run/pass when it's 3 WR vs. GL? I'm guessing nobody here really knows but I assure you Sea and NE did. It's rather clear from post game that's what influenced Sea in their decision.
Just stop- it was a horrible play call.

 
Carroll basically saying exactly what I just said in the post game interviews. He needed to get the plays, saw the pays bring in their goal line d, they brought out their the receiver set planning to run but decided to take advantage of the goal line look, and butler made a great play.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Congrats Pats fans
DD, I was rooting for the Pats all the way, but damn, that one has to hurt as much as the Packer loss. Don't wish that kind of a loss on anyone.

I'm still not over it.

Great season.

 
Carroll basically saying exactly what I just said in the post game interviews. He needed to get the plays, saw the pays bring in their goal line d, they brought out their the receiver set planning to run but decided to take advantage of the goal line look, and butler made a great play.
An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day
 
Doctor Detroit said:
Congrats Pats fans
DD, I was rooting for the Pats all the way, but damn, that one has to hurt as much as the Packer loss. Don't wish that kind of a loss on anyone.

I'm still not over it.

Great season.
Great game, hate when a bad coaching decision makes a difference but Pats deserved to win. Thanks for the note. :thumbup:

 
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Q: Lions lose in gut wrenching fashion to Cowboys.
Cowboys lose in gut wrenching fashion to Packers.
Packers lose in gut wrenching fashion to Seahawks.
Seahawks lose in gut wrenching fashion to Pats.
—Chris, Austin


 
Carroll basically saying exactly what I just said in the post game interviews. He needed to get the plays, saw the pays bring in their goal line d, they brought out their the receiver set planning to run but decided to take advantage of the goal line look, and butler made a great play.
:lmao:

 
wdcrob said:
Bevell has a history of doing stupid #### at the goal line too.
Do we know if it was the call, or if Wilson changed it?
The formation was pass from the get go, no way Wilson changed it. What QB doesn't want to throw a Super Bowl winning TD?

Awful call, sickening. I thought they were going read option in the shot gun, was shocked they threw.

 
Oof. Tough loss for Seahawk fans. Been glued to every play for well over 30 years now. Odd, I've felt much worse after watching them lose other games. I guess I'm getting much more reflective and not reactive in my old age. I missed the final few moments of the game. Heard there was some poor sportsmanship and bad attitudes. I'm sure I'll see it at some point. Haven't watched the press conferences yet. Will get to that tomorrow.

My random thoughts...

* Happy for Brady. Mad respect for that guy. Won't be surprised to see him keep winning more. He's not the sort to pout after a loss. He's not the sort to gloat after a win. He's focused on the next game. Love that about him. I said it in other threads. I'll say it here. I think Brady is one of the all time greats, and the result of this single game wasn't going to change my opinion either way. Winning and losing at these levels is such a crap shoot sometimes. If you're basing your opinions of Brady based on their win today, you're just fickle. Brady didn't make the final play. If Lynch scores and Seattle wins do you think less of him because his team lost? I wouldn't.

* Super happy that Wilson is the QB in Seattle. I believe he'll be the leader of a team that wins a lot in his career. Hard to ever count him out of a game. I think most fans will point at the coaches when they start placing blame for that last play. I rarely begrudge them any play call. Its the players on the field that #### up, and WIlson ####ed up, but I'm still super happy he's out QB here in Seattle.

* Offseason will be interesting for Seattle. Guessing they bring back everyone except for Maxwell (including Lynch). Losing Maxwell is going to hurt. Maybe Simon or Lane develops? We'll see. The salary cap isn't going to be the issue that some think it will be. If you doubt me, check out Davis Hsu via twitter. Dude is all over the cap numbers in Seattle.

* Wasn't surprised to see Seattle let Kam and Wright man up on Gronk. its what they do. Its how they play. If you can beat it, kudos to you.

* Was surprised to see Willson go the entire game without a target.

* Wasn't surprised to see Blount get shut down.

* Was surprised to see that many missed tackles in the Seattle secondary.

Final thought: If you were paying attention, you noticed that depth in the secondary in the modern NFL goes WAY past your starting corners. If you don't have at least four CBs that can cover other teams will find the weak spots. It doesn't matter if you have a Revis or a Sherman. Teams will find a way to move the ball by targeting your weakest links.

And off to the offseason.... Time to start watching all those YouTube videos of the incoming class of rookies.

 
Seahawks had way to many things break there way to get to the Super Bowl God must have stepped in on Wilson on that last pass.

Was talking before the game and if you look back the Seahawks were lucky that Arizona fell apart enough for the Seahawks to get the #1 seed. Then you add in the Packers/Detroit finishing exactly where is needed to not allow the Cowboys to win a tie breaker with the Seahawks. Finally you have the worst playoff collapse of all time by the Packers to let the Seahawks get to the Super Bowl.

Somewhat skewed by my dislike of Carrol, Lynch, and Sherman but really didn't think the Seahawks unlike last year ever showed they were the best team in the NFL. Will be interesting what happens with Wilson this offseason with 1 year left on his contract gotta think you have to lock him up to something long term this offseason.

 
:pickle:

Salty haters say what???

Ha. Trying to get cute with that pass. They were lucky to even be down there with Kearse's circus look what I found David Tyree catch. Karma. Ha

 
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I don't get anyone saying the game was sloppy or poorly played either, I thought both teams played a great game. :shrug:
Brady and Wilson were pretty meh most of the game.

Just was not a great played game by either offense for most of it.

Edit...there were some nice throws by both...but I don't think it was a very cleanly played offensive game by either QB.

 
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Like I said I'm stuck out here in the country without a TV. How were the defenses? Seemed like both offenses were knives through butter.

 

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