Reposting this here for the game thread. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll take plenty of heat. But I stand by my system.
Good news and bad news. The bad news is a made a mistake by using the first post to mark up the conference title games. I should have used my second data set from this thread, which was produced based upon results after 15 games. The good news is that it would not have changed the prediction.
The super bowl pick also doesn't change, regardless of wether I use the first post (week 14) second post (week 16) or the final rankings. I use week 16 since some clubs sit their starters that last week. Not really fair to penalize the Seahawks for not trying (and it would not have penalized them anyway).
So here is what we have, based on regular season results minus week 17.
Seahawks (1st offense, 5th defense) 1+5 = magic number of 6
Steelers (8th offense, 3rd defense) 8+3 = magic number 11
The rule is that super bowl champs need their magic number to be lower than 20, which both clubs are.
Efficiencies (yards per point)
sea 13.37 O, 19.17 D
pit 14.10 O, 17.84 D
The Seahawks are more efficient on both sides of the ball. This holds true looking at week 14, 15, or 17. Entering this postseason, clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball were 19-2 in conference title games / super bowls over the past 15 years. When the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the NFC title, that number moved to 20-2 because the Seahawks were also more efficient on both sides of the ball than them. (The efficiencies were split in the Steelers-Broncos game, so it doesn't affect this). Clubs who are more efficient on both sides of the ball in the super bowl itself are a perfect 7-0 in the past 15 years. To me this holds a lot of weight because this isn't an arbitrary stat - its a very fundamental stat based upon points and yards - you can't statistically measure a club much better than that. Combined we are saying that a team usually has to be playing well to get to the super bowl, and when you have a team not only playing well but statisucally better than its opponent, you wind up with a winner.
One other number to consider is point differential. By that we mean points scored minus points allowed. Teams with a higher point differential have won 20 of the last 23 super bowls. Again, that is a very basic stat that should carry a lot of weight when it is that accurate in picking super bowl winners. Its not arbitrary at all.
Point differentials thru 15 games:
Seahawks: 435-248 = 187
Steelers: 354-237 = 117
The Seahawks have the edge here as well. Note that even if I included the final regular season games, the Seahawks would still have the edge.
Furthermore, let us discuss how these clubs are playing.
The Seahawks looked absolutely dominant in the NFC title game. And no-one can pick a weakness on their club right now. They can throw, run, and play defense.
I realize a lot of people believe the Steelers looked great in the AFC title game but I disagree. I know I'll draw heat for these next few paragraphs but I have to say what I think is the truth to put together a solid analysis. The Steelers did not look like a great club against the Broncos. For one, they were not able to run the football at all. In fact, the running game has not been working well for the Steelers lately. When the running game doesn't work, you are forced to throw more. The Steelers did that. When you have to throw more, you are prone to having your QB make mistakes. Contrary to what the general consensus was, Ben Rothlisberger made several mistakes, huge ones.
There are some stats I like that simply are not kept track of by anyone. One stat I would like to see kept track of in the NFL is interceptions dropped. It gives us a lot of info but because no-one keeps track of it, people act like a dropped interception should not be factored into evaluating a QB. Ben threw4 INTs in the AFC title game - none of them were caught.
1. On the first drive, Ben threw the classic, worst-throw-you-can-make pass. He tried to hit the WR who was about 5-10 yards downfield, and the CB jumps the route. That is a horrible throw that a veteran should never make. But Ben did it. The reason it is so horrible is that 9 times out of 10 the CB picks that off and scores a TD. But this time, Champ Bailey whiffed! It was almost like he was too excited to focus - he was 10 yards downfield before he realized he didn't have the ball. Instead, it popped straight up in the air and was caught for a 1st down.
2. Ben threw an INT into the end zone in the first quarter, but the defender couldn't quite haul it in. he had position, but couldn't make the catch. The Steelers scored on that drive.
3. Ben threw another INT into the end zone in the second quarter. The defender didn't get his hands up properly and it passed right between his arms. He could have had it, or at least knocked it down, instead a Steeler WR caught it for a TD.
4. In the third quarter with the score 24-14, Ben hit S John Lynch in the hands with the ball. Like the Bailey play, Lynch had nothing between him and the end zone. If he catches it, its a footrace. He just simply dropped the ball. Disregard all the other dropped ballls, if the Broncos just execute here its pretty much a new ball game.
To me, Ben didn't play well, but neither did the Broncos. They didn't punish Ben for his huge mistakes. But when you look at a box score you don't see that. If they just catch 2 of those 4, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl. Even if they just catch 1, but its that Lynch INT, and he scores, the Broncos may have won that game.
The point is that the Broncos gameplan was sound - they just didn't execute. I think the Steelers were fortunate to win that game.
The Steelers are not going to run the ball against the Seahawks. The Steelers do not have a dominant running game right now plus the Seawhawks excel against the run. On the flip side, I believe the Seahawks will be able to run against the Steelers. The Steelers excelled against the run in the regular season but they haven't fared well against the run in the postseason plus the Seahawks have a dominant running attack.
I think if the Seahawks mimic the basic gameplan of the Broncos - shut down the run and force Ben to pass - that Ben will throw INTs once again and this time the opponent doesn't drop them all.
Seahawks win this game. I think they should win this game easily. In fact, I think they should blow out the Steelers. I won't guarantee that. I think if the Seahawks have trouble with the 3-4 defense of the Steelers, then it turns into a close game. My system pretty much guarantees a Seahawks win tho, and I'll stand by that.
I hope your system is right for this game. I'm
to see what comes in from those who disagree with some of your observations.
Shocking analysis from BGP. Absolutely shocking.
So many different variables go into the stats he uses (strength of schedule, style of offense. injuries..) that it's not worth debating them anymore.
Yes, Seattle has played well all year. They looked great against a Panthers team with their 4th string RB, an injured Julius Peppers, and it's no wonder they could focus 3 guys on Steve Smith. They're a good team, but they struggled mightily away from their home stadium this year and struggled or lost each and every time they played a remotely decent team. I've posted on that before; if you break down their performances this year game by game, it's not all that impressive when you consider who they beat, where they beat them, and how they looked doing it.
As for Ben's "INTs", not all of them should have been picked. The throw to Ward on the first series was a bad throw, and from time to time QBs make them. His receiver (Ward) made a play on the ball, and great receivers do that for their QBs.
To say the 2nd one should have been an INT is ridiculous, because it was as close to being caught as it was being intercepted. It would have been an AMAZING interception.
The third one was a perfectly placed throw to Ward in the back of the endzone over the secondary. Was it close to being broken up? Sure, and a lot of passes a "close" to being broken up. This one was perfect, and it had to be. You're the only one I've heard say anything negative about that throw.
And the Lynch one at the end of the game was a miscommunication between him and the WR. Of course, to say it would've been a footrace to the endzone had he caught it isn't true. I just watched the play again, and he would've made another 10 yards if he was lucky.
He's right in that the Steelers will struggle to run if Seattle brings 8 and 9 guys into the box like Denver and Indianapolis did. Of course, they'll get burned time and time again in the passing game if they do. In the past, during the playoffs teams could do that to the Steelers because Stewart, Maddox, Tomczak, and O'Donnell couldn't make a defense pay for it. Roethlisberger can, but then again, he's struggled lately... right BGP?
We've heard from BGP how Cowher can't coach, how Roethlisberger's fading again, and how every time the Steelers win anything, it's the other team that didn't execute or they got lucky to get by for one reason or another. We've even heard that he's happier rooting for the Browns than a franchise that won't replace Bill Cowher because he can't coach in big games (despite his 11-9 postseason record, 6 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and average of over 10 regular season wins per year)
It's almost comical at this point.
That schedule is cake. They haven't played anybody. 
El had 35 recepts this season. Wilson 26, Miller 39. That's 100 total receptions, just about 6 per game COMBINED. If you think checking down to that group is good enough to win a superbowl....good luck to you.
I clicked this post to read somthing about a bizarre habit of one of the Steelers players and get analysis instead.
Please?
actually I was looking for something...how should I put it?....more within my price range 
