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Survivor Contests - Currently Week 14 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros said:
Buffalo's defense carried that team for so long.  

Would you trust Tyrod to go out and win you a game?  He's probably even behind Tebow in my rankings for that.  
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Lol

 
Dr. Dan said:
So lany people in my 2 strike league have 1 strike on NO. what a terrible pick. 

Onto week 2

Survivorgrid.com shows that WAS isnt a bad pick vs IND, and they hold very little value rest of season.

Theres also NO over CLE, with little value rest of season. Not sure how I feel about that after last week though. 

LAC @ BUF is the 2nd highest right now, but the Chargers have decent value this year. 

DEN vs OAK isnt bad either.

What I'm looking at is rest of season value, and while week 2 isnt updated yet, the Chargers have some decent value whereas this year it's pretty tough overall- so many teams with just 1 star already. it's possible it might be beneficial to save the Chargers. I get the idea of picking against Buffalo this year... they look really bad. that might not be a bad strategy. 

I'm probably going Chargers or Saints
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rule #1 of survivor pools:  Don't "save" teams or look far down the road.  You'll always be shocked at how early most people are out.  Take the sure things, worry about the rest later.

 
Pip's Invitation said:
The Chargers often start slow, so I’d rather not pick them in a week 2 game on the other coast, no matter how bad the opponent. Don’t know what I’m gonna do yet. Maybe pick NO on the grounds of the “hopping mad” theory— good teams that lose to bad teams don’t let it happen again if they play another bad team the following week. 
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Ya but coming off that loss, and playing Buffalo, you gotta think that's a win.  If I don't go with the Chargers then I think I might use the Rams now, or the Saints.

 
Pip's Invitation said:
The Chargers often start slow, so I’d rather not pick them in a week 2 game on the other coast, no matter how bad the opponent. Don’t know what I’m gonna do yet. Maybe pick NO on the grounds of the “hopping mad” theory— good teams that lose to bad teams don’t let it happen again if they play another bad team the following week. 
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TB isn't a bad team

 
Rams are a hot pick this week but I don't like the idea of a divisional game if I can help it. Weird things happen. 

New Orleans at home against Cleveland is the most attractive to me right now. it checks all the boxes. It's practically a must win considering their schedule. And I dont see another game I feel great picking them for except maybe week 7

LA Chargers is tempting but I'm just not sure I like them traveling across the country. 

 
Casting Couch said:
I like the VIKINGS if Aaron Rodgers is deemed inactive.
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This is a good call. 

I'm leaning LAR right now but like Dr. Dan I don't like divisional games.  NO seems good but I don't think I trust them.  Tyrod can attack the NO defense the same way Fitzmagic did in week #1 - long bombs to talented WRs.  Not sure I want to risk being knocked out by the Browns :lol:  

 
I'm also thinking Eagles against the Bucc's.  With that front 7 the Eagles have, I have to believe the pressure will be a lot for Fitzpatrick.  Usually that means INT's for ANY QB.  

According to NFL.com here's the top4 percentages of teams being taken so far

Chargers 29.2%

Rams 19%

Saints 16.9%

Eagles 14.1%

After that every team is 3.6% or below

 
Over half my league went out week one with saints and lions

Tought choice between saints vs browns, eagles/bucs, chargers/bills

My first thought was saints but when will we feel this great about chargers again?  Maybe vs the raiders?  Eagles will prob only drop 1 or two division games.  

Prob going saints.  Chargers are so tempting though.

 
chargers are probably the safest even though they're going cross country. the bills are just so much worse than any other team in the nfl.

 
Both my pools are 2 strikes and I took Balt last week. Pretty sure going with Rams but also like 49ers and Wash so may split this week.

 
wow didn't realize that about the saints.  rams look like the safest pick on the board.   cards offense was absolute trash last week.  going rams

 
I'm not liking NO after the above statistic was posted. 

Not liking Chargers after Josh Allen named the starter... just a bad feeling about that.

I guess the best option is LAR. cant see them losing at home vs AZ. Anything could happen I guess with a divisional game, but I now greatly dislike the other two options 

Denver isnt bad but division

SF isn't bad but I feel like Detroit rebounds after that embarrassment 

 
If you believe what the Jets did wasn't an anomaly then I think that might be considered a safe bet vs Miami.  Although we probably don't have any sense on what Miami is capable yet with their game being like 3 hours worth of delay's.

I like the Vikings call quite a bit if there is no Rodgers.  

 
Don't over think this. Rams at home against a qb that doesn't move well with that defense line. Did you guys see Peterson and Thompson wear out the Cardinals front 7. What do you think Gurley will do? 

 
Be careful of the trap week.  I really hate teams on the road or west coast teams coming east.  Divisional games can be flip a coin.  

The saints season start record is ugly.  Here are the top 4 picks from Survivorgrid.com

  1. Rams (34.6%)
  2. Chargers (23.7%)
  3. New Orleans (20.3%)
  4. Washington (4.7%)
Right now, I am leaning Rams, but nervous about a divisional game.

 
I think I have to go chalk with the Rams this week. Washington feels like a classic "overreact to Week 1" pick. Saints and Chargers feel deceptively obvious. Let's not forget that both defenses got shredded last week in losses, and "bet against the rookie QB making his first start" didn't work out to well for people who picked the Lions last week.

The only reason not to pick the Rams is to save them for later in the season, and whenever I find myself falling back on that logic, I slap myself across the face, dump a bucket of cold water over my head, and go chalk.

I've been doing these pools for 15 years, and I can't recall a single time when I lost because I made it to late in the season and ran out of good teams to pick. I can, however, remember multiple times where I got bounced for getting cute.

 
zftcg said:
The only reason not to pick the Rams is to save them for later in the season
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It being a division game doesn’t scare you off?  Hell even the Patriots lose division games from time to time. 

 
tangfoot said:
It being a division game doesn’t scare you off?  Hell even the Patriots lose division games from time to time. 
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No, most important factor is what's "on paper".  Cards should have little success on O and D.  If they do pull it out somehow then...oh well.

 
Chasin' the Bills.....Chargers.

I realize the West Coast team going cross country to play a 1pm game situation but I'm not scared.

 
tangfoot said:
It being a division game doesn’t scare you off?  Hell even the Patriots lose division games from time to time. 
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A little bit, but the Rams won both meetings last year scoring 33 and 32 points - I know every year is different but do you see the Cards scoring 30+ against the Rams?  I've already locked in the Rams.

 
Staying with the Rule .... Home Team vs Non-Division Opp

I like SF ,  think Detroit is in really bad shape on and off the field. Locker room is a mess.

San Diego vs BIlls has a couple bad trends being at 1pm and on road but really has no excuse for losing to that Bills team anywhere or anytime.

 
going Rams probably, but would go Saints if not for the stuff posted here about their slow start. Would be a shocker to see the Browns go on the road and win at the Saints. What did they (the browns) really show last week other than they're a bit more competent than last year and tied in a sloppy condition game against a team that did everything they can to give the game away? TB looks to be a legit contenders this year so that loss for the Saints gets a discount imo.

 
tangfoot said:
It being a division game doesn’t scare you off?  Hell even the Patriots lose division games from time to time. 
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Serious question: are there any stats showing division games are more likely to result in upsets? I feel like that's a truism we all repeat but I wonder what the data actually show.

 
zftcg said:
Serious question: are there any stats showing division games are more likely to result in upsets? I feel like that's a truism we all repeat but I wonder what the data actually show.
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Please note that this analysis does not take road/home teams into account.  I suspect a home underdog fares even better than these stats suggest.

http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/nfl-handicapping/how-often-do-nfl-underdogs-win-outright-a-historical-analysis-by-spread-ranges-2496/

Underdogs getting between 1 and 3 points are 937–896-108 against the spread (ATS). Of those 937 underdogs that covered, 863 won outright – a 92% win rate.

Underdogs getting between 3.5 and 6.5 points are 968-955-22 ATS. Of those 968 underdogs that covered, 641 won outright – a 66.2% win rate.

Underdogs getting between 7 and 10 points are 701-646-36 ATS. Of those 701 underdogs that covered, 364 won outright – a 51.9% win rate.

Underdogs getting between 10 and 14 points are 359-300-15 ATS. Of those 359 underdogs that covered, 136 won outright - a 38.2% win rate.

Underdogs getting more than 14 points are 61-53-2 ATS. Of those 61 underdogs that covered, 6 won outright – a 9.8% win rate.

It's also worth pointing out that Arizona is the worst team in the NFL in terms of being a road underdog and win/loss record.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_home_dog?range=yearly_all&sc=is_away_dog

 
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On to week 3.  

I've rarely done these in the past and I think this might be the furthest I've made it without being eliminated (not jynxing myself I hope).  But here we go for week 3.

Jags vs Titans.  Home game, Bortles is great at home, defense is amazing and they're playing the Titans.  

Steelers seem like an option on the road purely because I can't imagine them going 0-2-1 to start the year.  Seems impossible for them, but that's just the Steelers fan in me talking, and it's probably getting way too cute for a survivor league.

Patriots @ Lions, but it's Patricia vs Belicheck so maybe the student becomes the master?  Unlikely.   

And lastly Vikings @ Bills is the other obvious choice

Jaguars, Patriots and Vikings are the chalk plays I think.  I used the Vikings in 1 league already so I can't go there.  I wouldn't think anyone has used 2/3 of those already so this might be the easy one.  

 
Vikings and the Bears are my two choices for this week.

Arizona's offense is pretty awful and the Bears D likely holds them to under 10.  

Vikings are probably the crowd favorite and I tend to not play the crowd favorite.  Only way to win these outright is by getting half the field eliminated one week.

 
I'm probably going with the Vikings. 

I don't like the Jags this week - the Titans beat them twice last year (yes, I know it's a new season).  But for whatever reason sometimes teams just match-up well with other teams and I think the Titans are one of those teams for the Jags.

 
I'm also not overthinking it.  But if you want to:

Home game
Non-division opponent
Coming off a game they should have won
Rookie QB making first road start
And finally (and probably most importantly) Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 20 teams that have been favored to win by 16 or more points and those teams have gone 20-0 straight-up. 

This isn't the week to get cute.

 
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