Casting Couch
Footballguy
The safest pick is the Vikings in week 3. I think 75% plus will be choosing the Vikings.
Don't get cute this week, just get the "W".
VIKINGS
Don't get cute this week, just get the "W".
VIKINGS
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Survivor Contests - Currently Week 14 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Hasn't that already happened though when the Saints lost week 1?abbottjamesr said:
Raleigh Engineers
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
MIN just seems like a trap IMO. I was skeptical of Buffalo losing last week and I am again. Emotional losses tend to leave a hang over. and while MIN didnt lose, they didnt win either. Couple that with Cook might be out... I'm just not super confident. Plus, it would be nice to save MIN for later as they have several nice matchups. I do think they will win but I like another team better.
PHI at home vs IND is where I'm going. Zig when everyone Zags and I see it as just as likely of a win for philly as I do for MIN and PHI has less value later in the season.
Full disclosure, my league is double elimination, so if PHI lays an egg it's not the end of the world, but it would hurt if MIN wins
PHI at home vs IND is where I'm going. Zig when everyone Zags and I see it as just as likely of a win for philly as I do for MIN and PHI has less value later in the season.
Full disclosure, my league is double elimination, so if PHI lays an egg it's not the end of the world, but it would hurt if MIN wins
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Typing this out as much to work it out in my head and have my reasoning to check back on when it backfires...
MIN is obviously the no-brainer pick and as nice as it would be to go against it and root for 60%+ of the pool to go out on one game it seems like the chance of that is slim, maybe not even worth the EV. MIN does have some nice matchups the rest of the way but they are in weeks where there are other decent options. They host ARI week 6 but HOU hosts BUF and that's also probably at least a 10 point spread. Week 9 looks like a better reason to save them when they host DET but SF hosts OAK and CHI travels to BUF and KC to CLE. Probably decent enough games and who knows if I make it to week 9 anyway. If they were a good option in a bad week I'd lean more towards saving them.
I was also thinking about Bears and Eagles. Saw a stat about how bad the Bears have been on the road the last couple of years that made me a little nervous about that one. Plus the Cards have to realize they need to start pounding David Johnson and take the ball out of Bradford's hands at some point right? I'll be at the Eagles game with my son who has never been to an Eagles loss, I think combined my kids are about 10-0. As much as I'd like to ride that streak with Carson coming back, the Eagles are pretty banged up and I'd rather wait to use them when Alshon, Ajayi, Sproles are back, JP is feeling better, and I feel more confident the secondary has worked out their issues.
MIN is obviously the no-brainer pick and as nice as it would be to go against it and root for 60%+ of the pool to go out on one game it seems like the chance of that is slim, maybe not even worth the EV. MIN does have some nice matchups the rest of the way but they are in weeks where there are other decent options. They host ARI week 6 but HOU hosts BUF and that's also probably at least a 10 point spread. Week 9 looks like a better reason to save them when they host DET but SF hosts OAK and CHI travels to BUF and KC to CLE. Probably decent enough games and who knows if I make it to week 9 anyway. If they were a good option in a bad week I'd lean more towards saving them.
I was also thinking about Bears and Eagles. Saw a stat about how bad the Bears have been on the road the last couple of years that made me a little nervous about that one. Plus the Cards have to realize they need to start pounding David Johnson and take the ball out of Bradford's hands at some point right? I'll be at the Eagles game with my son who has never been to an Eagles loss, I think combined my kids are about 10-0. As much as I'd like to ride that streak with Carson coming back, the Eagles are pretty banged up and I'd rather wait to use them when Alshon, Ajayi, Sproles are back, JP is feeling better, and I feel more confident the secondary has worked out their issues.
Minnesota. I feel like this is another week not to get cute. Pats are also a lock, but it seems odd to save Minnesota just to use up another team that you would typically want to preserve. Same goes for Jax, KC and Rams (who I already used last week anyway).
If you're insistent on saving those guys up, Bears are a decent pick, though I wouldn't want my pool riding on Mitch Trubisky if I could avoid it.
If you're insistent on saving those guys up, Bears are a decent pick, though I wouldn't want my pool riding on Mitch Trubisky if I could avoid it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
You guys are talking me off the ledge. Might just play it safe and survive for another week...
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I'm taking the Jags.
I simply do not see Blaine Gabbert taking that team into Jacksonville and scoring enough points to win. Bortles has looked better, Fournette is likely back, and I feel almost as comfortable with them as I would Minnesota.
I don't look at it as getting "cute." I think the Jags are only a fraction less safe than Minnesota, and I'd rather have Minnesota later when 2/3 of the entries don't.
I simply do not see Blaine Gabbert taking that team into Jacksonville and scoring enough points to win. Bortles has looked better, Fournette is likely back, and I feel almost as comfortable with them as I would Minnesota.
I don't look at it as getting "cute." I think the Jags are only a fraction less safe than Minnesota, and I'd rather have Minnesota later when 2/3 of the entries don't.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I think my strategy is: See who plays BUF and ARI. Pick the better situation of the two. Hence, MIN this week.
need2know
Footballguy
Tn beat Jax twice last year. With mariota but let's not pretend he makes that much difference
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Agreed! Buffalo, especially the offense, is going to he dreadful all year and the Vikings have a good defense.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
What happened last year doesn't concern me at all. Might even make me feel even better about the idea that the Titans aren't going to go into Jacksonville and beat a far superior team two years in a row no matter who's at QB. Minnesota is a great pick too, but I have them lined up for week 6 against Arizona I believe.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Cook is out. I'm likely not going with MIN just because I dont know what to expect from that offense without him
This seems odd. We saw that offense without him for 12 games last year, and Murray should fill in admirably.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I can sort of understand keeping the Vikings around if there's another match you really like.
Haven't read the rest of the thread (will later just trying to go into this without using others opinions) but if I had to I'd bet against my own team in Jacksonville this weekend.
Or take Philly with Wentz back.
pats are going to destroy the Lions.
But yeah, the smart money is taking the Vikings. Jags if you're going against the grain.
-OZ-
Footballguy
He does.
Agreed to a degree. Vikings week 6 vs Arizona is enticing enough to keep them around.
Jags play in Buffalo week 12. Maybe that being away makes a difference, maybe that it's week 12 and you're vastly more likely to make it to week 6 than 12.
Overall I can't fault someone for strategically taking the jags instead of the Vikings this week.
DropKick
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Yep. That week 12 matchup is the only thing that gave me pause about using Jacksonville this week, but there weren't any other matchups in week 6 that I liked other than Minnesota over Arizona. Maybe Houston over Buffalo, but Houston doesn't give me a lot of confidence.
He does.
Agreed to a degree. Vikings week 6 vs Arizona is enticing enough to keep them around.
Jags play in Buffalo week 12. Maybe that being away makes a difference, maybe that it's week 12 and you're vastly more likely to make it to week 6 than 12.
Overall I can't fault someone for strategically taking the jags instead of the Vikings this week.
So my options were Minnesota this week and then Houston over Buffalo in week 6, or Jacksonville this week and Minnesota over Arizona in week 6. I feel more confident in the latter.
It'd be great to save Jacksonville for week 12, and I've given it thought. So far, I've still got them in there for this week.
Will Houston over Buffalo in week 6 look like a great bet?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Another thing to consider is Rosen may be playing by week 6, and we saw what Mayfield did to the Cleveland offense.Steelers4Life said:
I definitely like Houston over Buffalo, but I'm considering saving MIN for 6
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I'm not a fan of saving teams for other weeks. So much can change with injuries and such. I pick the team that I think has the best chance to be their opponent each week.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I definitely get that, we all have different strategies. I try to be a mix. First look at the teams I think most likely to lose, then if it's a close call I'll take the team I least want to use later.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
That makes a lot of sense. I guess I do that as well when it's a close call between a few teams.
I get the sentiment of that strategy, but some foreword planning is good in my mind. It doesn’t matter which week you lose if you lose.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Well, there are a lot of concerned people who took Minnesota this week.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
all you ca do is laugh
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Its not over yet but the NFL is so unpredictable at times. Im in 3 survivor pools, if ever there was a case to use the same team in all 3, it would have been the Vikes this week. Luckily I hedged, yet I have Houston and Jax as welll, yikes.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I went Jags too... and I'll say that I'm happier with that situation right now than I would be if I had picked the Vikings lol
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
So out of about 15 of us there was 3 left this week.
We all took Minny.
What happens now?
We all took Minny.
What happens now?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Well, a loss is a loss is a lossSteelers4Life said:
Oh well. Both teams I considered this week lost, so I was done no matter what.
I was relieved that having burned Minn for their win over SF, I wasn't tempted to play them this week and had to go away from the great upset.
Then I remembered that I had gone with Green Bay instead.
Oops.
I expect the survivor pools to thin out dramatically this week. Good luck.
Then I remembered that I had gone with Green Bay instead.
Oops.
I expect the survivor pools to thin out dramatically this week. Good luck.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Seems like every year I forget that there's no such thing as a ~90% win probability in the NFL and I should take those big EV shots when they present themselves. Somebody remind me of this next year please! Should have went with my initial gut of Bears or Eagles, both close games but would have moved on at least.
Last edited by a moderator:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
anyone left?
don't expect Buffalo to catch lightning in a bottle twice in a row. They looked bad last week though and Rodgers keeps getting more gimpy. But, GB is not losing at home to BUF
For me, I have LAC penciled in
don't expect Buffalo to catch lightning in a bottle twice in a row. They looked bad last week though and Rodgers keeps getting more gimpy. But, GB is not losing at home to BUF
For me, I have LAC penciled in
massraider
Footballguy
Anyone alive? 
The big contest I am in, has 8500 entries, 4000+ already wiped out by some early season upsets. MIN, JAX, and NE knocked out another 3000 this week. That MIN loss was as big a blowout by a such a heavy favorite in something like 60 years.
We are at 880 Survivors. Crazy.
With so many entries, getting to week 17 is almost certain (now, I am not so sure), so I was saving MIN and NE for later. I advanced by taking CLE and CHI.
I checked to see how many other people took CLE, there were 75 other prophets.
The big contest I am in, has 8500 entries, 4000+ already wiped out by some early season upsets. MIN, JAX, and NE knocked out another 3000 this week. That MIN loss was as big a blowout by a such a heavy favorite in something like 60 years.
We are at 880 Survivors. Crazy.
With so many entries, getting to week 17 is almost certain (now, I am not so sure), so I was saving MIN and NE for later. I advanced by taking CLE and CHI.
I checked to see how many other people took CLE, there were 75 other prophets.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Only because our survivor pool plays by different rules - restricting the top 2 favorites the first 2 weeks, the top 3 the next two, and so on. However, you can pick any (non-restricted) team any number of times. It's a very effective way of whittling down the ~15,000 entries later on in the season (restricting the top 6-7 favorites basically forces you to choose between coin-flip games).Anyone alive?
This week MIN, JAX and HOU were the three restricted teams, and they all lost.
The downside is we didn't actually lose that many entries this week since a lot of the smaller favorites won, so still thousands left alive.Looks like GB, LAC, and JAX
will be no-gos Week 4. Leaning ATL at this point - LAR the other 6+ point favorite but despite their showing this week the Vikes are too good to be 6-point underdogs to anyone.
