I also think Staley will be back as a change of pace. He will restructure. They may cut him and then re-sighn him. There isnt many places for him to go really.
That's kind of what I was thinking. At a cap hit of $4.4 million, I doubt it, as they could use that money and Bettis' to sign a couple of players, but if he's willing to restructure to the point where he's not making more than any of the big backs available in free agency, he may well be back. Consider, his role would really be a replacement for Bettis, with Parker as the feature back. I think he'd do OK in this role, to wit :Using Drinen's awesome data dominator, I fleshed out some interesting situational numbers. First, I compared the two running backs since Staley came to the Steelers (2004 and 2005 seasons in their entirety.) Obviously, a comparison in rushing TDs is not fair, as Bettis has been the goal line hammer, but a straight ypc comparison is not fair to Bettis for the same reasons. So, I looked at all carries that WERE NOT inside the opponent's 10 yard line.
Bettis : 299-1215 4.06 ypc 41 first downs (13.7%) 1 TD
Staley : 196-843 4.30 ypc 27 first downs (13.8%) 1 TD
Very similar, but with an edge to Staley. Then, I looked at goal line situations (carries inside the opponent's 5 yd line), using data from 2002-2005 (since Staley has had almost no goal line carries since joining the Steelers) :
Staley 23 carries, 9 TDs - 39.1%
Bettis 67 carries, 34 TDs - 50.7%
Here, Bettis gets the edge, but Staley is not awful and could up that number behind a Steelers line which is far superior in run blocking to the Eagles of 2002-2003. Next, I checked out effectiveness in short yardage situations, all carries from 2002-2005 where the situation was 2 yards or less to go for a first-down :
Staley : 68 carries, 51 first downs (75.0%) - 3.82 ypc
Bettis : 129 carries, 88 first downs (68.2%) - 2.19 ypc
Taking it a step further, and narrowing it down to only 3rd/4th down carries with 2 yards or less to go :
Staley : 18 carries, 14 first downs (77.8%) - 3.67 ypc
Bettis : 68 carries, 50 first downs (73.5%) - 2.68 ypc
Edge to Staley on both counts.
Now, I know we're comparing an aging Bettis to a younger Staley, and am aware of Staley's injuries, but it seems to me that if healthy, he can serve in the same capacity Bettis did this year and be just as effective, if not more so. If they can keep him at a reasonable price, I say they do it and devote the $$ they'd use on a free agent back to re-up Randel-El, Haynes, or Hope.