Hi Folks,
I've had a lot of email on this so I sent this out to the mailing list today. Thought it might make for something for you guys to discuss here too so David suggested I throw it here.
J
I've had a lot of email on this so I sent this out to the mailing list today. Thought it might make for something for you guys to discuss here too so David suggested I throw it here.
J
Hi Folks,
I know that many of you are heading to drafts tonight and this weekend and the one
question I keep hearing from folks is where we see Peyton Manning.
It'd be nice if I could throw out the "it'll be interesting to see how this plays
out" or the "we'll know a lot more next week." Those are true statements. But the
reality is that you don't pay us $26.95 a season to sit on the fence. You want to
know what where we are on Manning RIGHT NOW.
So here goes. This is sort of long so if you want to get the bottom line, scroll
down to the end. If you want to see how I support what I'm thinking, read on.
We told you the other day what Mike Chappell had in his excellent article but
here's a refresh.
Link: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...5/1058/SPORTS03
Colts owner Jim Irsay conceded "it'll be close on Peyton. Only he will know if he's
ready. I think there's a good chance he will be.
"We know there's more rehab ahead, but he is on schedule. The anticipation is he'll
be ready, but it'll be close."
As for being ready for the Colts' nationally-televised opener against the Bears,
Manning offered optimism, not a guarantee.
"That is my goal, to be ready for that first game . . . it has been my goal all
along," he said in his first interaction with the media since a July 24 conference
call. "Hopefully it continues to progress up until that point."
Manning was unable to predict when he might be cleared to practice. He also didn't
know how much practice time he would need to get up to speed for the Bears game.
Manning has been working extensively with Erin Barill, the Colts' director of
rehabilitation, following Barill's exhaustive regimen.
"I've had a tough month," Manning said. "It's truly been a challenge for me,
certainly something totally different than I've had to ever experience. Just
constant rehab."
He has worked at regaining the range of motion in his left knee, done some throwing
to keep his arm in shape, is lifting weights and has been able to do some light
running. He did some light throwing at Lucas Oil Stadium and walked around the
field with a wrap on his left knee, but no noticeable limp.
"As far as when and how much time I'll need, we'll just kind of have to wait and
see for that," Manning said.
It's hard to imagine the Colts ushering in their Lucas Oil Stadium era without the
player most responsible for its existence in the starting lineup Sept. 7. Yet
Irsay insisted he has talked at length with Manning about the situation, and
stressed the importance for everyone involved to keep the bigger picture in mind.
"I just told him I want to make sure you feel 100 percent and you're ready to go
because it's a long season," Irsay said. "With the human body . . . you just don't
know for sure. But we're hopeful that he'll be able to go."
**************
When you consider this is the team owner talking about his star player being
hopefully ready for the season opener in your brand new stadium, I interpret "It'll
be close" to really mean something closer to "It's not looking too good for him
being ready in Week 1 but we haven't given up hope just yet." Or something close
to that.
And Manning himself sounds pretty guarded offering hope and optimism over any real
clear cut predictions.
The new news on the issue today is Michael Lombardi of The National Football Post
writing that the Colts are much more worried than they're letting on. He says that
Manning had a second procedure to clean out the knee but that mostly they're
worried about being able to control swelling in the knee.
Link: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2008/0...t-diner-talk-2/
Clipped from the Michael Lombardi article: "I talked to several people in the NFL
yesterday who know things and they assure me that Peyton Manning’s knee is a huge
concern for the Colts. Apparently Manning had to go through another procedure on
his knee to clean things out after having his bursa sac removed last month. What
is the most concerning is not the second operation (which the Colts are denying),
but that they cannot control the swelling in Manning’s knee and any physical
movement causes MORE swelling. Once he returns to the game, gets hit, has to
place a load on the knee, and drive the ball, there can be swelling. All I know
is that there is MUCH more here than meets the eye. Manning has the trainer come
over to HIS home for rehab and is rarely seen. Now, I have been with some big-time
quarterbacks in my career like Joe Montana and Rich Gannon and never have they
rehabbed from home. I thought this was not an issue and that Manning would be
back. However, after talking to my friends in the league, it’s clear that this is
a HUGE concern short- and long-term for the Colts. "
******************
I've cautioned you in the past to be leery of reports from the girlfriend's
cousin's boyfriend that "knows a guy". But Michael Lombardi is a former NFL
executive with 23 years of experience. He's not one of those guys that throws stuff
on the wall and sees what sticks. When he says he's worried, I start to get worried.
Now let's also look at the reality of the Colts schedule.
Week 1: Home vs Chicago. With all due respect to my many Bears fans, it's not out
of line to think this could be a winnable game with Jim Sorgi under center.
Week 2: At Minnesota. Depending on the health of Tarvaris Jackson, this one is a
tougher game. Sorgi would have to face a noisy stadium and an explosive Vikings
team.
Week 3: Home vs Jacksonville. An all important divisional game against a
Jacksonville team that should be very tough.
Week 4: Bye. This is the first week that any team will be on a bye and the Colts
catch a break being in this first group.
So here's what I think that could mean. I think for Week 1, we're now looking at a
50% or more chance that Manning does not play. That could change next week but
that's my feel on this Friday afternoon. I think the Colts will be worried about
two things:
#1. Working the knee too hard and getting into a situation where they're "chasing"
the swelling each week. They know it's a long season and they don't want to get
started on a cycle they have trouble getting off of.
#2. Mobility. Manning isn't the most mobile guy out there of course but he's
extremely good at sliding around in the pocket. People used to call that "happy
feet" until he went a decade or so of 4,000 yard seasons. The truth is his feet
and legs buy him lots of extra time moving slightly around the pocket and if he's
limited there, he could be limiting his ability to protect himself. Something the
Colts would be very hesitant to do.
So I think there's a better than 50% chance he sits week 1 and they see what Sorgi
does.
If the Colts win and Sorgi plays reasonably well, there will be plenty of pressure
for Manning to sit another week and let Sorgi get the start in Minnesota. I'm just
spitballing here but I can see the chances that Manning misses the Vikings game
being about 35-40%.
If Sorgi starts the Vikings game and doesn't fare well (very possible in my opinion)
that's where the pressure will start to mount. Let's say the Colts lose at
Minnesota and they're sitting at 1-1 heading to a huge Week 3 divisional game
against Jacksonville.
The Colts will be facing a tough decision: Do they start Manning in Week 3 or rest
him to get through the bye week and let him start Week 5? I think much of that will
be dependent on how well Sorgi played. And also of course on Manning's health. And
also on the Colts record. If they're 0-2 entering week 3, I'd say Manning starts if
he can walk. If the Colts are 1-1 and Sorgi has looked ok, it'll be a tougher
decision. If the Colts are 2-0 and Sorgi has looked very good, it'll be much easier
for the Colts to rest Manning until Week 5.
If you made me put odds on Manning missing the Week 3 game, I'd say there is about
a 20% chance he sits there.
But it really does depend on how the dominoes fall each game. Obviously, the better
Sorgi performs, the more time it buys Manning. But the Week 3 divisional game
followed by the Bye week are big factors too.
Bottom Line: As of Friday afternoon, I think there's a better than 50% chance that
Manning misses the Week 1 game. I think there's a 35-40% chance he misses Week 2.
And I think there's a 20% chance he sits for Week 3 and then starts after the bye
week in Week 5.
And remember, the NFL regular season may be 17 weeks long, but most fantasy regular
seasons are just 14 weeks long. So missing 3 games is 21% of the regular season.
That's not insignificant.
Bottom Bottom Line: Looking at the Average Draft Position (ADP) where owners are
drafting Manning, we're now more pessimistic than most owners. He's still currently
going about #12 overall which we think is too high. We already had him projected
behind Brady, Brees and Romo (at #31 overall). He'll probably remain our QB #4,
but move further down the overall list (possibly as low as 40-45 overall), but
still before Carson Palmer. It's a gamble to let him drop this far on the overall
list and it's certainly possible he goes out and has his normal season for an owner
that drafted him way later than normal and be a huge value for that owner. That
was my original feeling on him. But despite what the Colts are saying, I believe
his rehab has gone poorly and the chances are there for him to be limited this
season. Enough of a chance that we're advocating letting him fall. It's probably
not the safe prediction as it would be better to say "let's see". But it's our job
to take a stand and that's where we are right now.
Bottomest Bottom Line: Let someone else over-value Manning.
Hope you have a great rest of your day. For information on subscribing to the
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Good luck to any of you folks drafting tonight and this weekend. Hope you smoke the
competition.
J
******************
Joe Bryant
Owner - www.Footballguys.com
Well that clears things up.Thanks, guys! 
Great note and it reminded me to re-up for the subscription - keep up the great work as always!
