Sabertooth
Footballguy
Tannehill was top 10 last year. He's top 6 or 7 this year.
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Tannehill's upside (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter yankdog
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't think it's quite that simple. Last year it was a virtual coin flip between QB 8-11. Using FBG standard scoring (which I sadly cannot remember what that is), Tannehill ranked 9th. Guys behind him that I can see passing him this year: Brady, Newton, Rivers, Romo, and Stafford. A lot of those guys are almost interchangeable. There is nothing etched in stone that Tannehill will do better than last year, and those other guys certainly can do better.
It definitely isn't that simple, but just to be the devil's advocate here... guys above Tannehill that could easily drop:Anarchy99 said:
Peyton (41 pts) - getting old, Kubiak going to run the ball and play conservatively while in the lead
Brees (41 pts) - also getting a little old, lost a weapon, team appears ready to dedicate to the run
Wilson (35 pts) - 850/6 rushing probably not going to happen again
Ben (34 pts) - 8.1 YPR last year and very tough schedule this year
Ryan (12 pts) - only 12 points above Tannehill last year, despite 628 passing attempts
Eli (1 pt) - peculiar career resurgence, 601 PA, only 1 point above Tannehill last year
That being said, Tannehill will have to improve to fend off the likes of Newton (-34 pts, missed 2 games), Romo (-16 pts), and Rivers (-4 pts).
If they ever use his legs more, he'll be fantasy gold. Why don't they run him more? The guy has wheels and he's not fragile.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah, I agree with that. It's a crap shoot. But Tannehill has improved each year. I think the addition of a true #1 in Parker, plus the maturation of Landry is going to make him Aaron Rodgers lite. He attempted 30 passes in all but one game last season and that was against the hapless Jags.Anarchy99 said:
Todem
Footballguy
After being out at camp a lot I see a real difference this year. More than any previous camp.
He looks like an NFL QB now. Very confident in the pocket. Very decisive with his progressions, he knows where everyone is and supposed to be. His leadership in the huddle and coming to line calling out the defenses.
The final test is real game action in the regular season under real pressure. I am very hopeful he will use his feet far better this season and also get the ball out quickly and accurately.
It's night and day from the previous 3 years.
I am really excited for him this season.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Remeber this is only his what 5th year of playing QB? He was a wideout in college if I recall correctly until his final season.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Correct-ish. He was a QB in High School but spent all but his half his junior year and the entirety of his senior year at A&M at WR.
2007 seasonTannehill redshirted his first season (2007) at A&M.
2008 seasonSee also: 2008 Texas A&M Aggies football team
Before Tannehill's second season, Mike Sherman took over as head coach. In summer camp, Tannehill competed against veteran quarterback Stephen McGee and redshirt sophomore Jerrod Johnson for the starting quarterback position. He finished third in the contest, behind Johnson and then McGee. Sherman, whose offense utilizes true receivers, moved him to wide receiver.
In his fifth game, he posted freshman school records of 210 yards on 12 catches. After his six receptions for 78 yards in the Iowa State game, he broke the freshman school records for receptions and receiving yards.[3][4] Tannehill finished his redshirt freshman season with 844 receiving yards, which was 11 yards shy of breakingRobert Ferguson's record set in 2000.[5] He attempted only one pass at quarterback the whole season.[6]
Tannehill had expressed his desire to become the starting quarterback at A&M: "I still think of myself as a quarterback, I still want to be a quarterback here at A&M. Hopefully that’s the way it turns out. But if things don’t happen that way, and Coach thinks I can better help being a receiver, then I guess I’m okay with that."
2009 seasonSee also: 2009 Texas A&M Aggies football team
During the 2009 offseason, Tannehill and Jerrod Johnson competed for the starting quarterback position; the job went to Johnson.[7]
Tannehill finished the 2009 season with a team-leading 46 receptions for 609 yards and four touchdowns.[8] About 80% of his 46 catches went for first downs or touchdowns.[9] He picked up All-Big 12 Honorable Mention honors for his performance.[10] He only took eight snaps at quarterback the entire season.[6]
2010 season
Tannehill vs Iowa State in 2011See also: 2010 Texas A&M Aggies football team
Tannehill continued to play receiver during the first six games of the 2010 season. Over those six games, he made 11 catches for 143 yards.[11] He attempted 4 passes during the season opener.[12]
He saw extensive action at quarterback during the Kansas game, splitting time with starter Jerrod Johnson. Tannehill finished with 12-for-16 passes for 155 yards and three touchdowns.[13] In his first career start at quarterback, Tannehill led the Aggies to a 45–27 victory over Texas Tech. He set a school record with his 449 passing yards.[14] He also made a 33-yard pooch punt, his first career kick.[15]
Tannehill quarterbacked the Aggies to a victory over No. 11 Oklahoma, which moved the team into the top 25. He helped the team maintain the top 25 ranking through victories over Baylor and No. 9 Nebraska. During the Nebraska game, he punted twice since the starter was injured.[16] He and his team defeated Texas to finish off the regular season. He picked up All-Big 12 Honorable Mention honors.[17]
2011 seasonSee also: 2011 Texas A&M Aggies football team
In 2011, Tannehill started all 13 games (including the bowl game) at quarterback for the Aggies and served as team captain. He threw for 3,744 yards and 29 touchdowns, with 15 interceptions. He completed 61.6% of his passes and posted a quarterback rating of 133.2. He also ran for 3 touchdowns. Tannehill lost the final game of the regular season to the University of Texas on Thanksgiving Day. Texas was quarterbacked by Case McCoy.
Tannehill concluded his quarterback career at Texas A&M with a total of 5,450 passing yards 42 Touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I just remembered everyone stating he was an extremely high upside, raw talent at QB.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Yup ... I agree with your point completely. The guy has done nothing but improve at QB every single season he's played the position in college and the pros. He's in the 2nd year under his current OC and they just continue to surround him with weapon upgrades. I'm a big fan of Tannehill.
FUBAR
Footballguy
yeah, I'm starting to regret trading him for Flacco and a 2016 1st (probably 1.07-1.10).
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Fins fan, not a Tannehill owner...
He has looked like a different player this offseason, and as mentioned, has already improved year over year every season. Good reason to believe that will continue. However, I would pump the brakes a little. The OL is still a mess. They have not a single OG worthy of playing regularly on an NFL roster, and the depth behind the starting OTs (both very good) and C (great) is sketchy. If any one of the 2 OTs or C go down, that line is going to revert back to the abysmal depths of 2013.
Had really hoped that they would have made the move to get Mathis, but the reality is that they spent so much on Suh that it may have been an unreasonable expectation. I hear Levitre may be cut from Tennessee. I havent followed him at all and dont know if he can still play, but I would assume he is still a better option than the turnstiles named Dallas Thomas and Billy Turner. There is a rookie Jamil Douglas who could possibly step in, but he has not yet seized the opportunity to replace either of these extremely unimpressive guys...so not sure he is ready yet.
Still high on Tannehill this season and looking very forward to seeing him take the next step...hopefully he can stay upright to do it.
He has looked like a different player this offseason, and as mentioned, has already improved year over year every season. Good reason to believe that will continue. However, I would pump the brakes a little. The OL is still a mess. They have not a single OG worthy of playing regularly on an NFL roster, and the depth behind the starting OTs (both very good) and C (great) is sketchy. If any one of the 2 OTs or C go down, that line is going to revert back to the abysmal depths of 2013.
Had really hoped that they would have made the move to get Mathis, but the reality is that they spent so much on Suh that it may have been an unreasonable expectation. I hear Levitre may be cut from Tennessee. I havent followed him at all and dont know if he can still play, but I would assume he is still a better option than the turnstiles named Dallas Thomas and Billy Turner. There is a rookie Jamil Douglas who could possibly step in, but he has not yet seized the opportunity to replace either of these extremely unimpressive guys...so not sure he is ready yet.
Still high on Tannehill this season and looking very forward to seeing him take the next step...hopefully he can stay upright to do it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In a start 1 QB league that's a fantastic deal for you. Flacco could very well have the better season anyway.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Have been very bullish about Tannehill this year, he's got the most weapons he's ever had. Was targeting him, but of course, some new guy that joined our league took him in round 4 as like the 3rd QB off the board. Undone by the clueless guy lol 
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That makes a better QB fall. Don't be upset.Have been very bullish about Tannehill this year, he's got the most weapons he's ever had. Was targeting him, but of course, some new guy that joined our league took him in round 4 as like the 3rd QB off the board. Undone by the clueless guy lol
ETA: I should have said a higher ranked QB fall, because Tannehill could potentially end up being the better option.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Flacco has less to throw to than Tannehill does. The only proven receiver or tight end in BAL is SSmith. That doesn't mean Flacco will do poorly, but I expect him to not be on the same page with everyone for a good part of the season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They were within 8 points of each other last season (which is .5 points per game). Completely crazy talk.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well, I wouldn't either. In a vacuum I take Tannehill, but add a first round pick to the mix and I'll take Flacco. I really wouldn't want either to be more than my backup QB in a dynasty anyway.
I see the argument against Flacco as his lack of weapons, but chalk me up as one that thinks Tannehill's weapons are vastly over-rated. Jarvis Landry imo is the most over-rated player on these message boards. Stills is a one trick pony (that Tannehill is incapable of taking advantage of), Jennings has been in decline, Parker has seen as much time so far in camp as Perriman (and I rate them evenly anyway) and his TE is a career underachiever.
I think Steve Smith, even at his advanced age is the best weapon either QB has and I think guys like Aiken, Maxx Williams, Brown, Gilmore will all be adequate.\
Add in a pass happy OC in Testman that made Cutler and McCown put up stats and frankly I just don't see much of a difference, certainly it wouldn't be crazy if two QBs that were separated by 8 total points on the season flipped places this season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Except I don't see the Ravens having receiving options like Marshall, Jeffery, or Bennett like the Bears did.
For someone that seemingly gets credit by some folks for being an offensive mastermind, Trestman is moving to his 10th franchise and he doesn't tend to stick around for long. Here were the yearly fantasy rankings for his top scoring QB when he was a HC, OC, or QB Coach . . .
1987 TBB 22
1988 CLE 24
1989 CLE 11
1990 MIN 18
1991 MIN 11
1995 SFO 10
1996 SFO 7
1997 DET 11
1998 ARI 8
1999 ARI 33
2000 ARI 23
2001 OAK 3
2002 OAK 1
2003 OAK 37
2004 MIA 30
2013 CHI 23
2014 CHI 14
To be fair, some seasons the starter got hurt and a back up had to take over. Clearly his best success story was Gannon for a couple of years in OAK. He rode the coattails of Steve Young for two years in SFO. But beyond that he has produced decent to above average numbers, but I don't see him as someone that automatically turns water into wine no matter where he goes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah I'm not really saying that he does, just that he has a pass first OC now. Perhaps I like his weapons a bit better than some as well.
Bottom line is I'm not making any bold statement that I think Flacco is going to be a top 5 or even a top 10 QB. My only point is that I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes ahead of another fantasy backup level (imo) QB, a QB he finished in a virtual tie with last season.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Flacco also has excellent protection up front, whereas Tannehill's is potentially a bona fide disaster. God help him if Branden Albert misses any games this season - and he often does.
I keep seeing this Trestman talk, but as I've said before (maybe in a Flacco thread), Kubiak is as much of a QB whisperer as Trestman. Losing Kubiak and gaining Trestman is at best a lateral move.
Anyway, by most scoring systems Tannehill outscored Flacco by about 6% last year. Tannehill is getting back his LT and gaining several weapons in the passing game (+Jennings +Cameron +Stills -Wallace -Clay). But what people seem to be overlooking is that this will be his second year in the system while Flacco will be learning a new system and losing weapons without really gaining any known commodities (rookie WR with the dropsies and a rookie TE who will start the year on the bench).
So I maintain my stance that Flacco outscoring Tannehill this year is crazy talk.
Um, what? Albert missed half the season last year and Tannehill finished QB8.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't really love Tannehill or Flacco this year, but IMO it remains to be seen if losing Wallace, Clay, Hartline, and Gibson and replacing them with Cameron, Stills, Parker, and Jennings is a plus, a minus, or a push for Tannehill. The only thing we know for sure is they are a different crop of options. As I mentioned earlier, initially the odds suggest that changing the majority of receiving options all at once will probably be a negative in the short term (same system or not). Several FBG staffers have Tannehill in the 6-7-8 range (which I think is too high). FBG is nowhere near as positive on Flacco, as 9 FBG staffers have him ranked at 20+.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Thats true. I am a fins fan, so I hope you have this nailed. I am trying to be realistic though.
They had guards last year. Daryn College was not great, but was serviceable, and Pouncey played guard last year with Satele at center. Now Pouncey is back at center, which is an upgrade from Satele...but their guards are horrid. If you have to move one of those bad guards (Dallas Thomas) out to LT - as they plan to do for the 3rd preseason game (again, God help 17), then the next man up at guard is likely a downgrade from the awful guard he is replacing. Its bad on the OL in Miami. Trust me. I think its the weakness that may keep this team from being great this year. Hopefully 17 can rise above it. He is very mobile - he is going to have to be.
Faust
MVP
Faust
MVP
Ryan Tannehill looks sharp again as Dolphins edge Falcons:
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article32779110.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article32779110.html
Faust
MVP
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins Offense Getting Red-Hot Headed into 2015 Season:
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2557854-ryan-tannehill-miami-dolphins-offense-getting-red-hot-headed-into-2015-season
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2557854-ryan-tannehill-miami-dolphins-offense-getting-red-hot-headed-into-2015-season
Faust
MVP
Ryan Tannehill underappreciated so far:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13559853/ryan-tannehill-miami-dolphins-improving-needs-wins
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13559853/ryan-tannehill-miami-dolphins-improving-needs-wins
I'm coming around to the idea of Tannehill as the one mid-tier guy who could make the leap (Bradford could as well, but he's much riskier). Both of my leagues are super deep (16 team and 14 that may expand to 16), so I'll probably have to target him in Rd 4 if I really want him. I just find he gets me a lot more excited than the rest of his tier (Ryan, Romo, Eli, etc)
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Top 5
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If Tannehill is going to be Top 5, then MIA receiving targets are WAY undervalued. Who is going to get all this production? Parker is a rookie that has barely practiced and is still dinged. Jennings didn't come close to what he produced in GB while in MIN. Landry got a lot of targets because there weren't great options last year. Stills did ok in NOS but Brees throws the ball 650+ times a year. Matthews has been a role player. And Cameron has struggled to stay on the field.
Roethlisberger went for 4952/32 last year.and ranked 6th. Someone please show me who gets all the production for Tannehill to do better than that to rank Top 5.
JackReacher
Footballguy
You have to factor Tanne's legs in his production but your point is a good one.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He was top 9 last season. Only 30 points off the top 5. Devante Parker is unlike anything he's ever had.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Look every season somebody makes a big jump. Somebody is going to do it. Last year it was Russell Wilson. This year somebody is going to arrive with a vengeance. At qb this year I think it's Tannehill. He's improved noticeably every season. He's got the legs. He's got the arm. He's not the brain. He's a poor man's Aaron Rodgers.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Good thing he has way better receivers than Wilson then huh?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For argument's sake, let's give Tannehill 300/1 rushing. He could have more or less than that, but that seems like a reasonable number. He'd still need to put up like 4300/32 to get into the Top 5.
He had roughly 4000/27 last year. With all the roster changes, 224 receptions, 2544 receiving yards, and 18 TDs left town. Not saying he can't put up the numbers required to make it to the Top 5, so for those suggesting it please provide a breakdown of how at least 4300/32 gets distributed.
He had roughly 4000/27 last year. With all the roster changes, 224 receptions, 2544 receiving yards, and 18 TDs left town. Not saying he can't put up the numbers required to make it to the Top 5, so for those suggesting it please provide a breakdown of how at least 4300/32 gets distributed.
-jb-
Footballguy
Based on FBG standard scoring, 369 points was top 5 last year. Henry has him at 4120/28 and 260/1 for a total of 337 points. So he would need 32 more points to potentially get to a top 5, assuming consistency in that mark from 2014 to 2015. For ####s and giggles, let's pontificate that he goes for another 80 yards passing, 1 more PaTD, another 40 yards rushing, and another 2 rushing TDs. I think that gives him another 23 points...or 10 shy. Now let's consider that everyone is talking about the imminent slip of Peyton due to age, Brees due to scheme, and Ben due to schedule. If only one of them truly falls, then top 5 isn't out of the question by any stretch.
WALA
WALA
Sabertooth
Footballguy
So to convince you to believe my made up numbers that you disagree with, you want me to make up numbers for other guys that you will disagree with? Why would I do that?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am trying to agree with you, because if Tannehill does produce at the level you suggest he will perform at we are collectively missing the mark on projections for the guys catching the football.
And for whomever added a little production here and there and then lowered Peyton and Brees down the rankings, it works the other way too.
Brady, Romo, and Stafford would not need much to pass Tannehill. And guys like Newton (less likely without Benjamin), Dalton (with healthy receivers), and Rivers could also pass him. And Bradford looks like a candidate if he can stay upright and Eli has a lot of weapons. People just want to bump up Tannehill's scoring by 35 points, but there were 8 guys within 35 points of Tannehill. The point being, last year there was a pretty big tier of players very close to each other.
-jb-
Footballguy
That was me. So, if I understand what yore sayings above is that anything could happen?
Englishteacher
Footballguy
We have a keep 6 dynasty and with small rosters in season and year to year you have to be careful who you keep. That said, I weight rankings about 55% redraft and 45% dynasty. I came up with Tannenhill as my sixth ranked QB and felt good about it.
Always liked the kid. Phenom athlete with a lot of room to grow. New system (Kelly's ) is fantasy friendly and I like Parker, Landry, and Stills. Lamar Miller is an underrated back.
Tannenhill has consistently graded out high in PFF's passer ratings.
Felt real good about him until tonight.
Have my draft tomorrow and my gut was telling me something different.
Always liked the kid. Phenom athlete with a lot of room to grow. New system (Kelly's ) is fantasy friendly and I like Parker, Landry, and Stills. Lamar Miller is an underrated back.
Tannenhill has consistently graded out high in PFF's passer ratings.
Felt real good about him until tonight.
Have my draft tomorrow and my gut was telling me something different.
Trying to project how Tannehill's numbers will be distributed is a fool's errand. All I know is that he's improved his numbers each of first his three years in the league. Also, he may have lost a lot of his targets from last year, but I don't think they were particularly good. I'll take Parker/Cameron over Wallace/Clay any day of the week, and I think both Landry and Miller will make a leap this year.
