In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.
Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)
The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:
- Reggie Bush 2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
- Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
- Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
- Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
- Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
- M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
- J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2
Allen and Helu are no talent outlier who seem irrelevant to the discussion. I don't see Cohen as being capable of producing the same rushing workload we saw from MJD or Gio. I think Best and Bush are good comps, and we'd like to think he's got tons of more talent than Duke. Anyway, my only point in looking at this is to see how frequently we see rookie RBs grab X number of receptions. Including the 3-down workhorses:
- 90 or more - 0
- 80-89 - 1
- 70-79 - 0
- 60-69 - 3
- 50-59 - 8
Same cohort group, targets:
- 120 or more - 1
- 110-119 - 0
- 100-109 - 0
- 90-99 - 0
- 80-89 - 2
- 70-79 - 7
He's an interesting case study, and one game simply isn't enough of a data point to project. But Howard is going to get 15+ carries a game IMO. Chicago's RB rushing attempts the last 3 years (includes the last 2 years of the Forte era) were 352, 424, and 302. They had 19 last week, which projects to 304. They're not a good team and figure to be behind often. If we project them at 345 RB ATT, and pencil in Howard at 240 (less than last year when he barely played the first 3 weeks), that leaves 105 for Tarik. I'll give him a Charles/Brown/Sanders average of 5.25. I think Howard gets most of the TDs in this offense.
105-551-3
Howard is on pace for 324 rushing attempts. Cohen's halfway stats extrapolate to 108-456-2
RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.
112-81-770-4*
78-56-468-2
Four straight weeks of one reception after catching 24 the first four games
*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons
186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.
Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with
historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year.
Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.
I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.
60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.
So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.
56 receptions, 924 YFS, 4 TDs at his current rate
After week 3 he looked like he was headed for the high end of this range, but now....not so much. Such a dynamic player, hope Fox...awww, forget it.