Tatum Bell is the No.3 RB listed on the cheatsheet (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

Yes, I do think Bell can put up Davis/Portis numbers. And yeah, I agree it's going out on a limb. But I also think sometimes that's what it takes to get over on the other sharks in your leagues. Taking the guy a year before anyone else would...

Every year, someone surprises all of us, and someone fails to live up to expectations. Why not Bell this year? I just can't play FF "by the book". Too many variables, and too much luck involved. I play with my gut, works for me. You play it safe, hope it's working for you.

In my opinion - And we saw this in the "Expert Draft" thread where someone went after Gonzo and Mcnabb with their 1st two picks.... Is that you simply CANNOT target 1 player as your hero and just go after him balls to the wall....Instead you need to have a group of tiered "similar" players that could Fall to you in a round and get the one at the proper value.... If some Bozo grabs Bell in the First round what that means to you is that 1 more player in your Value tier is about to fall in your lap - Say maybe Dominick Davis or Jamal Lewis.

Bell in the 1st is a ridiculous mistake no matter how you slice it and no matter what his career ends up to be - Even if you were "right' Sharks will know you were really wrong in the game of Value.

It's great if you think you have an edge and have a good idea that so and so player will outperform what the average draft lists are saying BUT - in order to take advantage of that you need to grab him later and get another valued player as well before him..

Bingo!!!!

 

[Kit Fisto]

I'll spell it out for you then. What is funny is how you have stated your opinion is out on a limb and that it's OK for us all to have our own opinions. Yet, having stated all of that. You continue on to assume based off our disagreement on one player that you know how I draft (even though you have never been in a single league with me) and not only that but you can do soemone elses job just as good as them if not better becasue they too disagree with you view. So what ever happend to us all being aloud to have our opinions?

Edit: This is slowly turning into a pissing pool, so unless you want to further discuss Bell, I'll take my leave now.

If you're gonna spell things out for me, it's "allowed". My issue was with Marc until you jumped on my back. I've moved on from thinking I know how you draft.

My point about Joe and David is that because they are professional fantasy football people doesn't make what they say more valauble than anyone else's views. When all is said and done, FF is 50% luck, and all these sites and magazines are are speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt. It's not gospel, and I think it's wrong for staff members to belittle posters.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I'm not belittling anyone. But yeah, I can write articles, forecast, compile data, etc. As could you. And I'm sure there's more they do that I'm not aware of. But my fantasy football opinions are no less valuable because I don't do it for a living. That's arrogance. And I do value their opinion, when they're not belittling posters for disagreeing with them. It's ballsy to be a professional fantasy footballer, it's just not my professional calling. I could also be a policeman, fireman, ice cream truck driver, Blockbuster shelf-stocker. Just happens I chose the profession I'm in. Doesn't mean it's the only one I could possibly ever do.

Why do I come here? To filter through whatever useful information is posted, then move on to the next site.

And guys, the bottom line here is: it's all speculation. I agree with FFI's prediction on Bell. Others don't. I get it. See you at the end of the year.

So, even though only three people that posted here share your opinion, to call it fringe is insulting, HOWEVER, it's not insulting or belittling to waltz in and tell someone that any John Doe off the street could do their job as well as they can?I'm not going to continue to argue this an drag this forum down, but that was a low blow IMO at the people that run this site. Regardless of your opinions (and yes they are opinions and yours may be just as valid as anyone elses's) insulting people's talents and livelihoods is just not cool.

I didn't say any John Doe could waltz off the street. I said me and my group of fellow FF owners could. In fact, one of my boys contributes articles to Joe. But again, I'm not insulting anyone. I guess I just don't hold footballguys. staff members in such high regard as you. They're prognosticators, not fortune tellers!And if you can find anywhere in my posts where I said I could do a better job than any staff member, please quote it. I never said I could do it better. I simply said I could do it too.

 

[Kit Fisto]

So, even though only three people that posted here share your opinion, to call it fringe is insulting, HOWEVER, it's not insulting or belittling to waltz in and tell someone that any John Doe off the street could do their job as well as they can?

I'm not going to continue to argue this an drag this forum down, but that was a low blow IMO at the people that run this site. Regardless of your opinions (and yes they are opinions and yours may be just as valid as anyone elses's) insulting people's talents and livelihoods is just not cool.

I count Otis, Slash, Rushmore, Tombonneau, banger, finatic, Pony Boy, Stinkin Ref and Loopdog (and me) in the Bell camp to variying degrees. That's 10.I count Rovers, jurb, Joe T, boston fred, Mark Wimer, Marc Levin, Blue Peep, MelvinTScupper, brick and B-Deep generally against Bell's prospects. That's 10.

The other posts didn't really contribute much. The rest is just you, me and jurb.

So I hardly find the opinion on Bell having a great year "fringe". You pushed my buttons. I pushed yours back.

 

[jurb26]

So, even though only three people that posted here share your opinion, to call it fringe is insulting, HOWEVER, it's not insulting or belittling to waltz in and tell someone that any John Doe off the street could do their job as well as they can?

I'm not going to continue to argue this an drag this forum down, but that was a low blow IMO at the people that run this site. Regardless of your opinions (and yes they are opinions and yours may be just as valid as anyone elses's) insulting people's talents and livelihoods is just not cool.

I count Otis, Slash, Rushmore, Tombonneau, banger, finatic, Pony Boy, Stinkin Ref and Loopdog (and me) in the Bell camp to variying degrees. That's 10.I count Rovers, jurb, Joe T, boston fred, Mark Wimer, Marc Levin, Blue Peep, MelvinTScupper, brick and B-Deep generally against Bell's prospects. That's 10.

The other posts didn't really contribute much. The rest is just you, me and jurb.

So I hardly find the opinion on Bell having a great year "fringe". You pushed my buttons. I pushed yours back.

I think the Bell supporters/owners have been extremly overemotional about nearly every Bell thread to date this year. It is not that we, as people agianst Bell as you put it, can not see him doing the things you can. It's just that we find it much more unlikely. Yes, of course Bell can be a top 3 RB, but so can nearly every RB with a starting job. Yes, being in Den gives him a better chance at this. However, the fact that noone can be sure that he will be the starter or hold onto the starting spot also reduces this probablity. The list (which has been covered in great detail many times now) of things that we feel need to happen for Bell to see this kind of success makes us feel he is unlikely to live up to those expectations you guys have placed. Ignoring all of that, this thread inparticular was about drafting/ranking Bell in the 1st round (in FFI's case 3rd) or early 2nd. We as a collective group find this to be faulty drafting for a player with an ADP in the mid 3rd round. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OUR PERSONAL OPINIONS OF BELL. Drafting a guy in the 1st round that has a 95% chance to be there in the 3rd is simply flawed IMO. No matter how high you think he will finish. You could have landed 2 other very highly ranked players beforehand and stil landed the guy you really wanted! I happen to value Rudi Johnson a great deal. I have aquired him in BOTH of the leagues that I have drafted in thus far this year. I think Rudi is a top 8 RB this year a very worthy 1st round pick. Did I pick him the the 1st round either time? NO, absolutly not! His ADP is of a mid 2nd rounder. I would be foolish to waste, yes WASTE a 1st rounder on a guy like him. It would be a waste because I know (or at least 95% sure) that he will be ther for me in the 2nd. You may run into some extreme cases in which you NEED to draft Bell that early as some other players in yoru league value him as highly as you. Maybe you and PonyBoy are in a league together for example. These are extreme situations though and NOT the norm.Sorry to get your feathers in a ruff about a player you so personally value, but this is what the arguement boils down to IMO. It is simply poor strat to take Bell in the 1st round in nearly all situations, regardless of how valuable you see him.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I appreciate your reply jurb. it's ok to disagree. We disagree. I agree with you on your ADP value system, but sometimes I play hunches and take guys earlier than their ADP dictates. I have a strong feeling on Bell's 2005 season, you don't. Okee-doke.For example, I'm hoping a praying Ciatrick Fason falls to me in my dynasty drafts this year. I think he could be the best of all the RBs taken this year. You might not agree.I get my "feathers ruffled" when opinions are dismissed. Thanks for not furthering the pissing match.

 

[P Boy]

Yes, of course Bell can be a top 3 RB, but so can nearly every RB with a starting job.

If you honestly think this is true, I'll say that I now realize why you make some of the statements that you do. You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[jurb26]

Yes, of course Bell can be a top 3 RB, but so can nearly every RB with a starting job.

If you honestly think this is true, I'll say that I now realize why you make some of the statements that you do. You don't know what you're talking about.

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

 

[Reaper]

I count Rovers, jurb, Joe T, boston fred, Mark Wimer, Marc Levin, Blue Peep, MelvinTScupper, brick and B-Deep generally against Bell's prospects. That's 10.

The other posts didn't really contribute much. The rest is just you, me and jurb.

So I hardly find the opinion on Bell having a great year "fringe". You pushed my buttons. I pushed yours back.

Don't count me as being against Bell's prospects - You've got that ALL wrong - I've pimped Bell in all the other threads But, in this thread I feel people are putting his value ahead of where I have him. AT SOME POINT you have to understand his percieved value can become so high that you might as well look to trade him - For instance - If you offered me LT I'll trade ya - If you offered my Kevin Jones or DD I'd still trade - Ive got about 20 guys I'd easily trade - BUT ay 3.6 where he's going i LOVE him.I haven't discussed my particular feeling fro Bell's talents and potential - All I've discussed is his percieved value.

Again, I own Bell in my Keeper league... It's about VALUE - read the VBD articles for some great write ups on this. I think he's a GREAT value at his ADP of 3.6 - I think he does have potential to be top 5 he also has a lot of risks....

As a 1st or 2nd round pick I think he's a foolish pick VALUE wise....

 

[P Boy]

So, Kit, throughout your entire longwinded post, the point is that you think Bell is as good a RB as Portis and Davis were?  Am I correct about this?  I don't care if you do or you don't.  I would only hope that you can see how this is going out on a limb though.  If you read through my several Bell posts, you will find that it is my belief that IF Bell proves to be as good as those 2, then yes he will likely see top 5 numbers.  Unlike you, I simply find it unlikely that Bell (or any unproven RB) is as good as those guys.  It's a very tough measure to live up too, wouldn't you agree?

Olandis Gary, 199912 games featured, 1159 yds rush, 159 yds rec, 7 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1545 rush yds, 212 rec yds, 1757 total yds, 9 TDs

Mike Anderson, 2000

12 games featured, 1471 yds rush in those games, 163 yds rec in those games, 15 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1961 rush yds, 217 rec yds, 2178 total yds, 20 TDs

Rueben Droughns, 2004

10 games effectively featured*, 1183 yds rush in those games, 196 yds rec in those games, 8 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1893 rush yds, 314 rec yds, 2207 total yds, 13 TDs

* - Bell & Droughns split carries in 4 games at the end of the season – Droughns gets ½ a featured game in each of those

Now, if these 3 guys can post those kinds of projected numbers based upon actual results, what would make you think that if Bell has the starting job from day 1 that he can't at least match the numbers of those guys? Those are very Portis-like and Davis-like numbers from guys not named Portis or Davis.

Here’s the issue, jurb, that you just can’t seem to grasp. It doesn’t matter who Shanahan throws back there unless they are named Quentin Griffin. If they stay healthy, they put up huge numbers in that rushing offense. I’ve tried to explain this several times.

Then when you look at ypc & TDs/carry Bell has very favorable averages when compared to all other RBs that have ever played under Shanahan in DEN. That means he just may have the talent to jump into that DEN rushing monster & really turn it loose.

 

[P Boy]

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

I'll meet you halfway. You list the 32 teams & their starting RB, and I'll tell you exactly which ones have 0% chance at being a top 3 RB along with an explanation why.

 

[jurb26]

So, Kit, throughout your entire longwinded post, the point is that you think Bell is as good a RB as Portis and Davis were? Am I correct about this? I don't care if you do or you don't. I would only hope that you can see how this is going out on a limb though. If you read through my several Bell posts, you will find that it is my belief that IF Bell proves to be as good as those 2, then yes he will likely see top 5 numbers. Unlike you, I simply find it unlikely that Bell (or any unproven RB) is as good as those guys. It's a very tough measure to live up too, wouldn't you agree?

Olandis Gary, 199912 games featured, 1159 yds rush, 159 yds rec, 7 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1545 rush yds, 212 rec yds, 1757 total yds, 9 TDs

Mike Anderson, 2000

12 games featured, 1471 yds rush in those games, 163 yds rec in those games, 15 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1961 rush yds, 217 rec yds, 2178 total yds, 20 TDs

Rueben Droughns, 2004

10 games effectively featured*, 1183 yds rush in those games, 196 yds rec in those games, 8 TDs

Projected to featured RB from day 1:

1893 rush yds, 314 rec yds, 2207 total yds, 13 TDs

* - Bell & Droughns split carries in 4 games at the end of the season – Droughns gets ½ a featured game in each of those

Now, if these 3 guys can post those kinds of projected numbers based upon actual results, what would make you think that if Bell has the starting job from day 1 that he can't at least match the numbers of those guys? Those are very Portis-like and Davis-like numbers from guys not named Portis or Davis.

Here’s the issue, jurb, that you just can’t seem to grasp. It doesn’t matter who Shanahan throws back there unless they are named Quentin Griffin. If they stay healthy, they put up huge numbers in that rushing offense. I’ve tried to explain this several times.

Then when you look at ypc & TDs/carry Bell has very favorable averages when compared to all other RBs that have ever played under Shanahan in DEN. That means he just may have the talent to jump into that DEN rushing monster & really turn it loose.

Maybe you should simply reread one of the several other Bell threads in which ALL of what you just said is covered. It is getting rather rediculous that we have to rehash this on a weekly basis, don't you think? Honestly, why does it bother you so much that some people don't agree with your stance on Bell? We are the reson you can get him in the 3rd round! I would think you would be happy about that.

 

[jurb26]

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

I'll meet you halfway. You list the 32 teams & their starting RB, and I'll tell you exactly which ones have 0% chance at being a top 3 RB along with an explanation why.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

I'll meet you halfway. You list the 32 teams & their starting RB, and I'll tell you exactly which ones have 0% chance at being a top 3 RB along with an explanation why.

Have a blastJ.J. Arrington Ari/6

Warrick Dunn Atl/8

Jamal Lewis Bal/3

Willis McGahee Buf/9

DeShaun Foster Car/7

Cedric Benson Chi/4

Rudi Johnson Cin/10

Lee Suggs Cle/4

Julius Jones Dal/9

Tatum Bell Den/9

Kevin Jones Det/3

Ahman Green GB/6

Domanick Davis Hou/3

Edgerrin James Ind/8

Fred Taylor Jac/7

Priest Holmes KC/5

Ronnie Brown Mia/4

Michael Bennett Min/5

Corey Dillon NE/7

Deuce McAllister NO/10

Tiki Barber NYG/5

Curtis Martin NYJ/8

Lamont Jordan Oak/5

Brian Westbrook Phi/6

Duce Staley Pit/4

LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10

Shaun Alexander Sea/8

Kevan Barlow SF/6

Steven Jackson StL/9

Carnell Williams TB/7

Chris Brown Ten/10

Clinton Portis Was/3

 

[P Boy]

Maybe you should simply reread one of the several other Bell threads in which ALL of what you just said is covered. It is getting rather rediculous that we have to rehash this on a weekly basis, don't you think? Honestly, why does it bother you so much that some people don't agree with your stance on Bell? We are the reson you can get him in the 3rd round! I would think you would be happy about that.

I'd say look in the mirror and ask the same question. You are the one who makes the absolutist statements. I'm not even pimping Bell as being the #1 RB this season. I do think he's the guy with the edge & I do think he is the most capable of the guys on the roster right now, but that doesn't preclude someone else stepping in during the preseason. However, whomever does hold the job, if they have it on day 1 and stay healthy, has a chance to put up some very special numbers. That's just the history of the DEN rushing O since Shanahan took over as HC. You seem to want to ignore that at every turn or make up facts like Shanahan being fickle with RBs to support your dislike for Bell, which I still can't figure out.

 

[jurb26]

Maybe you should simply reread one of the several other Bell threads in which ALL of what you just said is covered. It is getting rather rediculous that we have to rehash this on a weekly basis, don't you think?

Honestly, why does it bother you so much that some people don't agree with your stance on Bell? We are the reson you can get him in the 3rd round! I would think you would be happy about that.

I'd say look in the mirror and ask the same question. You are the one who makes the absolutist statements. I'm not even pimping Bell as being the #1 RB this season. I do think he's the guy with the edge & I do think he is the most capable of the guys on the roster right now, but that doesn't preclude someone else stepping in during the preseason. However, whomever does hold the job, if they have it on day 1 and stay healthy, has a chance to put up some very special numbers. That's just the history of the DEN rushing O since Shanahan took over as HC. You seem to want to ignore that at every turn or make up facts like Shanahan being fickle with RBs to support your dislike for Bell, which I still can't figure out.

Where are these absolutist statements PB? I have not ingnored the Den rushing success at all. As a matter of fact I have sited it over and over again as a reason as to why Bell COULD live up to your expectations. Again and for the umptenth time, I just don't find it as likley as you. You choose to ignore (or maybe jus tplace very little importance on) the recent history of Den RBs, I take them into more consideration as do some others for which you seem to have some distinct hate for. Well, if Den did not have a different leading RB 5 of the last 6 years, maybe I would agree. That is a fact though, Den has had a different leading rusher 5 of the last 6 years and the only repeat on that list was Portis. Does that bother me looking at the Den RB situation, YES. If it doesn't bother you, so be it. It's funny how you will try and act as though people are making that information up. Here is a link to it so you can see for yourself http://www.profootballreference.com/teams/denindex.htm Again, I agree with you PB that Bell very well can be a top 5 or top 3 RB this year. What you seem to be missing is that I only happen to find that probability to be much lower than yours.

 

[P Boy]

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

What you are suggesting is that every team has at least a modicum of opportunity to win the SB right now. Even though theoretically that's true, realistically there are probably only 7-10 teams that have a practical shot. Same with RBs. Here's my assessment:J.J. Arrington Ari 0% chance. Green loves to throw the ball, and with Warner & some studly talent at WR, that shouldn’t change. He doesn’t run the ball much in the red zone, and when he does it quite often is with a vulture rather than the #1 RB. Only twice in 9 seasons with MIN did the leading rusher also lead in rushing TDs. Arrington isn’t big enough to be a pounder, either, so he is a likely candidate to get pulled in short yardage.Warrick Dunn Atl 0% chance. Too much other competition at RB, Vick carries the ball too often, passing game isn’t strong enough with Vick’s inaccuracy & lack of talent at WR.Jamal Lewis BalWillis McGahee BufDeShaun Foster Car 0% chance. Fox’s teams aren’t great O teams, and they share the running & passing pretty well. Foster has some serious competition for his job, and the whole thing looks like a RBBC. Not enough footballs to go around for the guys who want to carry it in CAR.Cedric Benson Chi 0% chance. The D isn’t all that special anymore, Grossman is still way early on his learning curve, and Thomas Jones is still lurking on the bench. As much as CHI would like to be a smashmouth team, they’ll be behind too much to do it. And after last season’s debacle, I’m not sure Lovie is a very good HC. Coordinator? Yep, outstanding. HC, show me.Rudi Johnson CinLee Suggs Cle/4 0% chance Suggs has competition to fight off at RB with Droughns & Green, CLE’s passing game & D are subpar, meaning they’ll be binhind a lot this season, forcing more 2nd half throws and a lack of opportunity for Suggs to put up sufficient numbers to even think about being in the top 10. They play in a division where it’s difficult to run the ball.Julius Jones DalTatum Bell DenKevin Jones DetAhman Green GB 0% chance. GB’s D is going to be awful, and they also lost a significant portion of their O-line (again). The best shot GB would have to win more than they lose would be to run relentlessly, but then they take the ball out of their best weapon’s – Favre’s – hands. Green is also going to have a fight to get as many carries as in the past with Davenport & Fischer proven & lurking.Domanick Davis Hou 0% chance HOU is offensively challenged and its not in Capers to stretch the team offensively. He likes to win with D, period. Davis also is going to have his hands full with his stablemates & keeping them from gobbling up too much of his playing time.Edgerrin James IndFred Taylor Jac Priest Holmes KCRonnie Brown Mia 0% chance This team is majorly challenged offensively and the D is getting very old very quickly. The O-line could use an overhaul also. This very well could be a repeat of SF last season, where the lack of respect for a QB made it almost impossible for SF to run effectively, being outnumbered at the point of attack often.Michael Bennett MinCorey Dillon NE Deuce McAllister NOTiki Barber NYG 0% chance Tiki was phenomenal last season, but now he has to deal with Manning’s growing pains 24/7. His numbers after week 10 last season were down significantly than when Warner was pulling the trigger, especially his receiving numbers. Tiki is also on the wrong side of 30, has had a ton of touches the past few years, and is smallish for a RB. Those factors combined mean he’ll need some help in the backfield. Last year’s greatest surprise comes back to Earth.Curtis Martin NYJLamont Jordan Oak 0% chance. This team is going vertical, baby, and for 2 reasons. #1 is that Al Davis has the QB and WRs to do his vertical game thing, and the other is that they’ll have to throw tons to keep up with other teams, as poor as their D is going to be. OAK’s best chance to win games would be to shorten them by running tons, but Davis didn’t trade for Moss to be conservative. Jordan may have a few second halves where he doesn’t get more than 6-8 carries.Brian Westbrook Phi 0% chance Reid is notorious for being a RBBC coach. Westbrook also hasn’t played 16 games in a season yet, and he doesn’t figure to run for many TDs. The competition at RB, the injury history, and the lack of red zone success mean no shot at the top 3.Duce Staley PitLaDainian Tomlinson SDShaun Alexander SeaKevan Barlow SF 0% chance Let’s see, probably a rook @ QB, not a whole lot of help at WR, a D that was in the bottom 10 last year and now is going through a complete overhaul. Then he pissed his team mates off royally. This guy may not put up good enough numbers to be a viable #2 FF RB.Steven Jackson StLCarnell Williams TB 0% chance Gruden is a coach who will completely sell out his running game to throw the ball, and he loves using a RBBC also. Williams has never carried a full load before, either, so he can be expected to be share here also. Just not enough opportunity to even be considered for anything higher than top 10, if that.Chris Brown Ten 0% chance The TEN O machine has been grounded, and they play in a division that is tough to run against with JAX & the HOU 3-4. O Gebnius Heimerdinger has moved on. The D has become pathetic, and the salary cap has hit hard. Brown also seems to have an injury bug. Too many factors preclude Brown, as talented as he looks when he can stay on the field, from putting up big enough numbers to get consideration.Clinton Portis Was-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I’ll add that while I think they have a remote chance, Curtis Martin is another favorite of mine to have a disappointing season just because of his age & the mileage on his chassis. It’s got to affect him sometime, and now is as good a time as any. Fred Taylor is also talented enough to get there, but he’s already injured, and his rushing TDs are way, way down – there’s a lot of yardage he has to make up to get to top 3 numbers, and he probably doesn’t have that much talent.

 

[jurb26]

Here is a small task for you then PB. Go through all of the starting NFL RBs and asign them each a % chance that you think they have of finishing in the top 3. LEt me know when you are done how many have 0% chance.

What you are suggesting is that every team has at least a modicum of opportunity to win the SB right now. Even though theoretically that's true, realistically there are probably only 7-10 teams that have a practical shot. Same with RBs. Here's my assessment:J.J. Arrington Ari 0% chance. Green loves to throw the ball, and with Warner & some studly talent at WR, that shouldn’t change. He doesn’t run the ball much in the red zone, and when he does it quite often is with a vulture rather than the #1 RB. Only twice in 9 seasons with MIN did the leading rusher also lead in rushing TDs. Arrington isn’t big enough to be a pounder, either, so he is a likely candidate to get pulled in short yardage.

Warrick Dunn Atl 0% chance. Too much other competition at RB, Vick carries the ball too often, passing game isn’t strong enough with Vick’s inaccuracy & lack of talent at WR.

Jamal Lewis Bal

Willis McGahee Buf

DeShaun Foster Car 0% chance. Fox’s teams aren’t great O teams, and they share the running & passing pretty well. Foster has some serious competition for his job, and the whole thing looks like a RBBC. Not enough footballs to go around for the guys who want to carry it in CAR.

Cedric Benson Chi 0% chance. The D isn’t all that special anymore, Grossman is still way early on his learning curve, and Thomas Jones is still lurking on the bench. As much as CHI would like to be a smashmouth team, they’ll be behind too much to do it. And after last season’s debacle, I’m not sure Lovie is a very good HC. Coordinator? Yep, outstanding. HC, show me.

Rudi Johnson Cin

Lee Suggs Cle/4 0% chance Suggs has competition to fight off at RB with Droughns & Green, CLE’s passing game & D are subpar, meaning they’ll be binhind a lot this season, forcing more 2nd half throws and a lack of opportunity for Suggs to put up sufficient numbers to even think about being in the top 10. They play in a division where it’s difficult to run the ball.

Julius Jones Dal

Tatum Bell Den

Kevin Jones Det

Ahman Green GB 0% chance. GB’s D is going to be awful, and they also lost a significant portion of their O-line (again). The best shot GB would have to win more than they lose would be to run relentlessly, but then they take the ball out of their best weapon’s – Favre’s – hands. Green is also going to have a fight to get as many carries as in the past with Davenport & Fischer proven & lurking.

Domanick Davis Hou 0% chance HOU is offensively challenged and its not in Capers to stretch the team offensively. He likes to win with D, period. Davis also is going to have his hands full with his stablemates & keeping them from gobbling up too much of his playing time.

Edgerrin James Ind

Fred Taylor Jac

Priest Holmes KC

Ronnie Brown Mia 0% chance This team is majorly challenged offensively and the D is getting very old very quickly. The O-line could use an overhaul also. This very well could be a repeat of SF last season, where the lack of respect for a QB made it almost impossible for SF to run effectively, being outnumbered at the point of attack often.

Michael Bennett Min

Corey Dillon NE

Deuce McAllister NO

Tiki Barber NYG 0% chance Tiki was phenomenal last season, but now he has to deal with Manning’s growing pains 24/7. His numbers after week 10 last season were down significantly than when Warner was pulling the trigger, especially his receiving numbers. Tiki is also on the wrong side of 30, has had a ton of touches the past few years, and is smallish for a RB. Those factors combined mean he’ll need some help in the backfield. Last year’s greatest surprise comes back to Earth.

Curtis Martin NYJ

Lamont Jordan Oak 0% chance. This team is going vertical, baby, and for 2 reasons. #1 is that Al Davis has the QB and WRs to do his vertical game thing, and the other is that they’ll have to throw tons to keep up with other teams, as poor as their D is going to be. OAK’s best chance to win games would be to shorten them by running tons, but Davis didn’t trade for Moss to be conservative. Jordan may have a few second halves where he doesn’t get more than 6-8 carries.

Brian Westbrook Phi 0% chance Reid is notorious for being a RBBC coach. Westbrook also hasn’t played 16 games in a season yet, and he doesn’t figure to run for many TDs. The competition at RB, the injury history, and the lack of red zone success mean no shot at the top 3.

Duce Staley Pit

LaDainian Tomlinson SD

Shaun Alexander Sea

Kevan Barlow SF 0% chance Let’s see, probably a rook @ QB, not a whole lot of help at WR, a D that was in the bottom 10 last year and now is going through a complete overhaul. Then he pissed his team mates off royally. This guy may not put up good enough numbers to be a viable #2 FF RB.

Steven Jackson StL

Carnell Williams TB 0% chance Gruden is a coach who will completely sell out his running game to throw the ball, and he loves using a RBBC also. Williams has never carried a full load before, either, so he can be expected to be share here also. Just not enough opportunity to even be considered for anything higher than top 10, if that.

Chris Brown Ten 0% chance The TEN O machine has been grounded, and they play in a division that is tough to run against with JAX & the HOU 3-4. O Gebnius Heimerdinger has moved on. The D has become pathetic, and the salary cap has hit hard. Brown also seems to have an injury bug. Too many factors preclude Brown, as talented as he looks when he can stay on the field, from putting up big enough numbers to get consideration.

Clinton Portis Was

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I’ll add that while I think they have a remote chance, Curtis Martin is another favorite of mine to have a disappointing season just because of his age & the mileage on his chassis. It’s got to affect him sometime, and now is as good a time as any. Fred Taylor is also talented enough to get there, but he’s already injured, and his rushing TDs are way, way down – there’s a lot of yardage he has to make up to get to top 3 numbers, and he probably doesn’t have that much talent.

I appreciate your time and efforts in that task, as it was not small in the least as my post would have indicated . I don't happen to agree with it, but you are certainly entitled to your views and I can acknowledge that they seem to be well thought out. We simply disagree on the topic of Bell and the probability of how many RBs can finish in the top 3. Nothing wrong there. Thanks for your reply.

 

[cosmonaut]

Bell's name will be on alot of 2005 Championship rosters

And none of those will have him as their "1st round pick".

 

[P Boy]

I appreciate your time and efforts in that task, as it was not small in the least as my post would have indicated . I don't happen to agree with it, but you are certainly entitled to your views and I can acknowledge that they seem to be well thought out. We simply disagree on the topic of Bell and the probability of how many RBs can finish in the top 3. Nothing wrong there. Thanks for your reply.

Oh, don't tell me we aren't going to fight anymore? There's nothing personal in it, at least from my side, and the best way to get tons of information contrary to one's own is to ignite the passion in a subject in the contrary's viewpoint.Time will tell. I happen to agree with you on more than you know. I don't think Bell will finish in the top 3 - I don't even know if he'll start the season as the #1 RB in DEN, and even if he does, top 3 is a lot to ask of him, especially since RB TDs seem to be much harder to come by in DEN these days. I do think he has a chance, though it is remote.I also wouldn't draft Bell in the 1st round, but I'd take a hard look at him past 2.06 & definitely would draft him if he's there at the turn in 2/3.I'd be interested in your opinion on the list of starting RBs. Maybe we can start another pissing contest...

 

[jurb26]

I'd be interested in your opinion on the list of starting RBs. Maybe we can start another pissing contest...

I'm sure we can, but not on a Friday night I'm affraid! I've got things to do. I will try and get back to that portion of this thread when I have the time though. Maybe we should start another thread dedicated to that specifically.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Top Ten Reasons I don't like Tatum Bell this year:

1) He rushed for 396 yards and 3 TDs last year,

2) He caught just 5 balls in 9 games.

3) Bell's only 100 yard game came against a Miami team that had completely given up. Tatum Bell (123 yards), Corey Dillon (121 yards), Lee Suggs (143 yards), and Jamal Lewis (167 yards) all blew up on Miami at the end of last year.

4) He rushed for a total of an average of 62 yards and 0 TDs in back to back games against KC, Tennessee and Indy. Have fun deciding what his good matchups are.

5) He's played exactly 0 injury free games in the NFL.

6) Shanahan has shown that he will start any of his backs until one shows to be the best. We can only speculate on whether he thinks Bell has done that, but with Anderson taking reps with the first team, Clarett drafted in the third round, and Griffin coming back from an injury and saying he wants to compete to earn "his" job back, it doesn't seem like a sure thing.

7) Shanahan has shown that he will pull any of his backs if they get injured and replace them with another.

8) Alex Gibbs, the offensive line coach who put that running system in place, left two years ago. That means George Foster, who was a rookie in Gibbs last year and is not a prototypical Denver lineman, and whoever they play at right guard, are no longer part of that "great O line", while Nalen is ancient. We're starting to see enough turnover to be able to see how much of the success of the Denver running backs has been Gibbs and how much was Shanahan.

9) Denver rushed for 300 fewer yards as a team last year than they did in Gibbs' last year with the team. Meanwhile, the Falcons rushed for 700 more yards as a team in Gibbs' first year with the team, although a healthy Vick certainly accounts for a large part of that.

10) This is a free tip for those of you saying he's worth a #3 pick or a late first rounder: If you see page after page of arguments about why your first round pick will or won't be a complete bust, DON'T TAKE HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND.

When I saw there was a link to another thread 3 posts in I didn't even come back in here to check this thread for 3 days...WOW am I in for a surprise.Superb post BF, as always you have a some great thoughts here and although I do not agree with them all this is good stuff and I need to see it as the Tatum Bell Kool-Aid is getting thick.

I just started re-reading this thread, I have a few posts to highlight.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Recent history has shown us (last year included) that the #1 rb on the broncos is stud and while drafting him is not risk free there is certainly a huge reward if he works out.

Recent history had Alex Gibbs coaching their offensive line. I wouldn't assume that another O line coach will have the same success. Who was the stud RB in Denver last year by the way?

Griffin started with a 156 yard - 2 td effort and I'd say that Droughns while he was the starter would have definitely been considered a stud back...30-193-0

38-176-1

24-110-0

15-49

29-120-0

28-166-1

28-102-1

I'll take 916 yards over a 7 week period from a waive wire starter. The guy is a below average NFL back that was cut from the Lions a year or so ago. He then got hurt and ended up splitting time with the more talented Bell the rest of the year.

You cite that Gibbs has left and while that may affect them long term they still finished 4th overall in the NFL in rushing yards. And that was with two backs (Griffin/Droughns) that are not very talented (which is probably the main reason for the yardage dropoff). There's no doubt that their RB situation was a mess and played by committee most of the year but to finish 4th in the NFL is nothing to dismiss.

It's my opinion from watching the games last year, reading interviews with the staff/team that Bell will be the starter in Denver. I don't know about you but I definitely would like to have the starter on the 4th best rushing team in the NFL and it's worth taking some risk to acquire that back.

Great way to debate without putting down the other person. Great post Banger, hope we will be seeing more of you.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Top Ten Reasons I don't like Tatum Bell this year:

1) He rushed for 396 yards and 3 TDs last year,

2) He caught just 5 balls in 9 games. 

3) Bell's only 100 yard game came against a Miami team that had completely given up.  Tatum Bell (123 yards), Corey Dillon (121 yards), Lee Suggs (143 yards), and Jamal Lewis (167 yards) all blew up on Miami at the end of last year. 

4) He rushed for a total of an average of 62 yards and 0 TDs in back to back games against KC, Tennessee and Indy.  Have fun deciding what his good matchups are. 

5) He's played exactly 0 injury free games in the NFL. 

6) Shanahan has shown that he will start any of his backs until one shows to be the best.  We can only speculate on whether he thinks Bell has done that, but with Anderson taking reps with the first team, Clarett drafted in the third round, and Griffin coming back from an injury and saying he wants to compete to earn "his" job back, it doesn't seem like a sure thing. 

7) Shanahan has shown that he will pull any of his backs if they get injured and replace them with another. 

8) Alex Gibbs, the offensive line coach who put that running system in place, left two years ago.  That means George Foster, who was a rookie in Gibbs last year and is not a prototypical Denver lineman, and whoever they play at right guard, are no longer part of that "great O line", while Nalen is ancient.  We're starting to see enough turnover to be able to see how much of the success of the Denver running backs has been Gibbs and how much was Shanahan. 

9) Denver rushed for 300 fewer yards as a team last year than they did in Gibbs' last year with the team.  Meanwhile, the Falcons rushed for 700 more yards as a team in Gibbs' first year with the team, although a healthy Vick certainly accounts for a large part of that. 

10) This is a free tip for those of you saying he's worth a #3 pick or a late first rounder: If you see page after page of arguments about why your first round pick will or won't be a complete bust, DON'T TAKE HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND.

How convenient that in your entire, and lengthy I might add, argument against Tatum Bell's prospects next year you left out three significant pieces of data:1) Bell averaged 5.3 ypc with his rushes last year

2) Bell averages 1 rushing TD per 25 carries

3) Bell averages 16.0 yards per reception

If you want to twist numbers and keep blabbering about Alex Gibbs so be it (by the way the Denver running game does not miss Gibbs as much as most seem to think). Bell supporters can twist the numbers too--the small sample set from last year shows Tatum Bell definitely is an explosive back. The sample set is small, but the numbers look good and there is no denying that he gave the Denver running game a huge spark once he got into the lineup. It's up to each person to decide if given a much larger sample size Tatum Bell could keep up his explosiveness week in and week out. If he does---watch out.

Slash I agree that Bell has done some impressive things in the small amount of carries he has gotten. I am worried that this kid cannot tote it 275-300 times for the season which seriously limits his upside.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You forgot Reason #11... you probably don't own him.

Come on, how 'bout a little objectivity?

Actually, I do. I own Culpepper, whose overratedness I've been equally vocal about, in the same league. I'm actively trying to trade both. I appreciate what you're trying to say, but please don't call my objectivity into question for the sake of an argument like this.

And here's the perfect example of someone spouting off about another member with no factual basis - I have been reading B-Fred for three years, plus, and he is probably the single most consistently objective poster on these boards. And, he does NOT allow his ownership interests to cloud his fantasy analysis. How can he when he is usually in enough leagues to own almost every important FF player?

Almost choked on my beer reading this. I agree completely. I have slowed down on my threads that I have started mainly because people with starting numbers of 13,000 and higher seem to want to come in here and pile on. I am all for constructive criticism but it gets personal so quickly that it proves pointless at a certain point.

 

[Family Matters]

You forgot Reason #11... you probably don't own him.

Come on, how 'bout a little objectivity?

Actually, I do. I own Culpepper, whose overratedness I've been equally vocal about, in the same league. I'm actively trying to trade both. I appreciate what you're trying to say, but please don't call my objectivity into question for the sake of an argument like this.

And here's the perfect example of someone spouting off about another member with no factual basis - I have been reading B-Fred for three years, plus, and he is probably the single most consistently objective poster on these boards. And, he does NOT allow his ownership interests to cloud his fantasy analysis. How can he when he is usually in enough leagues to own almost every important FF player?

Almost choked on my beer reading this. I agree completely. I have slowed down on my threads that I have started mainly because people with starting numbers of 13,000 and higher seem to want to come in here and pile on. I am all for constructive criticism but it gets personal so quickly that it proves pointless at a certain point.

Gotta show some sup[port for BF here. While we've had a few disagreements on a couple of players, BF will always back his reasons and opinions. He's a solid poster and takes the time to put well thought out material on this baord. Personally, I enjoy reading his posts and appreciate his contributions.You don't always have to agree with everyone but you have to show respect for one another if you're going to have any meaning debate or discussion. When it gets personal then it's time to stop posting.

One last thing, can people please stop using the "you must own player so & so" as to suggest they could not possibly be objective by owning said player. Actually, it makes sense that if you think a player is worth having that you would own that player. But like Mark said, with as many leagues as some play in there's a good chance you own most of these guys on one of your rosters. Some of them you like and some you don't.

BE respectful!

 

[Finatic]

We have had a gazillion Bell threads in the SP the past 6 months.They always start out well with some good arguments from pro-Bell and anti-Bell supporters.Then around page 2-3 things take a turn for the worse unfortunately.Bell is one of those guys who you either love em or you hate em.When you are debating a player like that you will always have two camps.As always some real good discussion in here for the most part

 

[AB in DC]

Speaking of objectivity...

You forgot Reason #11... you probably don't own him.

Come on, how 'bout a little objectivity?

My man-love for Bell... Tatum Bell is the 4th RB on my team. So seeing him ranked 3rd by FFI excites me

 

[AB in DC]

You don't always have to agree with everyone but you have to show respect for one another if you're going to have any meaning debate or discussion. When it gets personal then it's time to stop posting.

One last thing, can people please stop using the "you must own player so & so" as to suggest they could not possibly be objective by owning said player.

Couldn't agree more. What's the point of a message board if the first counterargument against anything written is "You probably [don't] own him"?