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TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I'm more bullish than most. I'm open to this being the pick at 1.7 of a 1QB league. Is there a long list of 1st round TEs in the past 10 years that were clearly drafted for what they do in the passing game (vs combo, or blocking)?
I'm not saying there won't be growing pains, they won't ask him to block, or that he'll never come off the field, but my understanding is that the cupboard isn't bare in that department. But he was drafted in the 1st round to be a receiving weapon for one of the top QBs in the game -- who also happens to be missing an obvious top receiving target on the roster projecting three years out. It has also been suggested that Kincaid might be the best receiver in this draft.
As an NFL TE, he's not on a tier to himself. As a fantasy TE, the experts I trust all seem to place him on a level above a very talented and deep second tier. Will those guys offer great value in the 3rd and 4th rounds of rookie drafts? Sure. But that doesn't mean Kincaid won't prove worthy of a late 1st, or that you can't draft two.
I'd take A-Rich ahead of him in 1QB, not Stroud or Young. Bijan and Gibbs ahead of him. We'll see about Charbonnet's landing spot, but I probably take him. We'll see about the other RBs like Miller and Spears. For me, the big question at 1.7 is where does he stack up against Flowers, Addison, and Johnston. If I need a WR or play in a start 3WR, I probably take Flowers and Addison. In a start 2 WR where I'm stacked, I think I'll take a shot at a potential TE3-5 in '24 or '25.
With all that said, the medicals might be a sticking point for drafting him this early. But he's an easy selection for me at 1.10 or later.
I'm not saying there won't be growing pains, they won't ask him to block, or that he'll never come off the field, but my understanding is that the cupboard isn't bare in that department. But he was drafted in the 1st round to be a receiving weapon for one of the top QBs in the game -- who also happens to be missing an obvious top receiving target on the roster projecting three years out. It has also been suggested that Kincaid might be the best receiver in this draft.
As an NFL TE, he's not on a tier to himself. As a fantasy TE, the experts I trust all seem to place him on a level above a very talented and deep second tier. Will those guys offer great value in the 3rd and 4th rounds of rookie drafts? Sure. But that doesn't mean Kincaid won't prove worthy of a late 1st, or that you can't draft two.
I'd take A-Rich ahead of him in 1QB, not Stroud or Young. Bijan and Gibbs ahead of him. We'll see about Charbonnet's landing spot, but I probably take him. We'll see about the other RBs like Miller and Spears. For me, the big question at 1.7 is where does he stack up against Flowers, Addison, and Johnston. If I need a WR or play in a start 3WR, I probably take Flowers and Addison. In a start 2 WR where I'm stacked, I think I'll take a shot at a potential TE3-5 in '24 or '25.
With all that said, the medicals might be a sticking point for drafting him this early. But he's an easy selection for me at 1.10 or later.
I think it's more appropriate to look at TEs drafted in the 1st round of fantasy leagues for the past 10 years and ask yourself whether any of them were worth it.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Hockenson worked out fine for the year that he was drafted. He went 1.7 in our league. Pitts has been disappointing, but still retains a lot of dynasty value. Kincaid is not up to Pitts level as a prospect, but I do think a Hockenson level of fantasy impact is reasonable (not expecting it in '23). NFL draft capital would say major advantage to Hockenson, but he also offered a lot more in the run game.
I'm not writing off Kincaid as someone who can't be worthy of a 1st because of Fant / Engram / Eifert didn't pan out. First, I don't think any fantasy analysts were advising a 1st round fantasy selcection on those guys (there are some already giving their blessing on Kincaid). Second, those guys all had moments in time where a late 1st investment would have looked justified.
However, I think what's most relevant is that Buffalo invested a 1st round pick in a TE who's calling card is in the receiving game. Could have used this pick to go after a rookie WR or veteran WR opposite of Diggs. They chose Kincaid. With a QB and offense like this, you can't wash over that. There's a world where Kincaid is Allen's best friend in the Bills 2025 passing game. If that hits, fantasy TEs that produce like starting fantasy WRs put leagues on tilt.
Yes, drafting a TE at 1.7 that isn't Pitts is risky, less than ideal, but It's all circumstance. I have all the WRs I'm going to need in a start 2 + FLEX. I'm not intrigued by the ceiling of Addison. I'm not a big believer in Johnston. I was intrigued by Flowers and still am, but not in love with the destination. If I could start 4 WRs in my lineup or needed WR help, I'd definitely lean towards Addison or Flowers as a safe pick. I have no present needs, so I'm drafting for two years out. What I'm likely to need in two years is a starting RB and a smash TE. I'd take A-Rich as a potential cheat code QB because he would have immense value if he hits. I'd probably take Charbonnet as a legit fantasy RB2 prospect. There are other RBs that have a shot but are much bigger question marks -- we'll see what happens tonight. Otherwise, I'm willing to gamble on Kincaid's upside since I'm not that intrigued by the upside of the chalk plays at WR.
Hockenson went 32/367/2 his rookie year and 6/131/1 of that was in his very first game. It was a below-average rookie year for a TE taken in the 1st round of the NFL (and dynasty) drafts.
Fant/Engram/Eifert were all consensus rookie 1st round picks when they came out. The TE position has been awash with magical thinking for a LONG time.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Have picks 14, 15 and 16 in SF and hoping he drops to me
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I remember reaching on the NFL stud TE, Coby Fleener.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
You mean Hockenson only had 236 yards in the final 15 games of his rookie year? What a bust! I think you might be missing a little context there. Currently, the #50 dynasty asset and TE4 on fantasypros. Maybe that takes a small hit with Addison. 7th pick in a 1QB league was chalk at the time of our August rookie draft. If you get a top 60 player at a position that everybody needs in that spot, that's a hit even if the road there has been rocky. That debut was everything your league needed to know that he was gong to be a commodity in fantasy, health pending.
Fant vs. Hockenson might've been a debate around NFL draft time. There was no debate in August. Fant went 2.11 to Hock's 1.7 in ours, and that wasn't much of a fall from consensus.
This is a dynasty opinion. I'm not advocating taking him ahead of Andrews in re-draft 2023.
Injury seems to be the common ground with all of these, not that they couldn't play. The fact that there is already a flag on Kincaid is probably what will give me pause. However, I generally try to hit home runs when I'm drafting and there's a big difference in what my league will pay for a top 4 TE vs mid-low end fantasy WR2. There's no substitute for the top 4 TE. Everyone has a story they can tell themselves for how their WR3/4/5 will take a giant leap forward.
A mid-low end fantasy WR2 scored over 200 points last year.
A mid-low end fantasy WR3 scored over 165 points last year.
In the past 3 years the number of TEs who have scored over 175 points is 5, 5, and 4.
The position is basically Kelce and then hope and pray the guy you own scores a TD, but I'm willing to expand it to include Andrews and Kittle because they've been pretty consistent.
The point I'm making is that if people in your league will pay up for someone who they think has the chance to be a top 4 TE, then you should be SELLING in just about every case.
Unless you've got Kelce, the hit to your scoring total is almost nil except in the highest scoring of TE premium or 2TE leagues
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Fantasy value isn't derived from points. It's derived from points above replacement, whether that replacement is the next best guy on your bench or the best guy available on the waiver wire.
That definition doesn't work for dynasty leagues. Unless you play with ultra-short rosters, the waiver wire is bereft of talent. And for that matter, most rosters are bereft of TE talent.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
....which is why finding one is an over-powered advantage. I don't subscribe to it's Kelce or nothing. If you want to say there's no meaningful distinction between TE7 and TE16, sure. But there's clearly a TE tier below Kelce that matters. And you never know if a guy on that tier is going to be the next to ascend to something resembling the Kelce advantage. The guy that won your league last year probably had Kelce or one of the guys behind Kelce that mattered.
If you have other holes on your roster, by all means. Don't spend meaningful draft capital at TE, scoop up the guy that went off on the waiver wire and hope he strings more games together until he has value. It's a valid strategy.
mashedbananas
Footballguy
In Tight End Premium/Super Flex, where would you take him? Before the draft I was hoping to get him with 1.12, but now I don't think he will last that long. Doesn't help that Levis and Hooker didn't go in the first round.
waiver wire
Footballguy
i am in a similar league setup , I am at 1.7 and I would have to consider him even though I know on how may top TE's dont pan out
I literally said that I would accept Kittle and Andrews behind Kelce. To be completely clear, my stance is that there's no meaningful difference between TE4 and TE16, and probably more like TE24.
And I'm the guy who won my league last year, rostering Logan Thomas and Noah Fant.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I have a same thought and to take this further, I think Bills may be much more methodical with ball-control offense (more horizontal and less vertical) this year and beyond.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I suppose it depends on how you play. On the one hand, taking a te that early may not pay off in year one or two. On the other hand, the advantage maybe getting a top 5 te by year three or four can be worth it to the right manager(Keyword maybe). I prefer to wait and try to trade for a te on the cusp myself that said once in a while there comes a prospect worth taking a chance on. I do not think Kincaid is that prospect for me but can see some taking him between 1-7 and 1.12. He is almost for sure a first-round selection for a manager in your 1QB league right or wrong he will not make it to round two.
jm192
Footballguy
In general, I don't expect much of rookie Tight ends. I still like the long term outlook for him.
metoo
Footballguy
I agree. But in general Buffalo doesn't play rookies.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I think we need to discuss whether or not Kincaid is a true TE or a hybrid. Utah flexed him out a lot. He also was used as an "H" back. Beane came out in his presser and stated pretty clearly stated that they see him as a hybrid type and feel and I quote " We will be more in an 11.5 than 12 personnel". I think the Bills also want to affect how defenses have to prepare for them and how they have to cover them. I do not claim to think I'm football smart enough to know how this will affect his fantasy production but it's clear there is a purpose to keep him on the field in most cases. I think it is a discussion that needs to be had as to how this will play a role for him in fantasy/dynasty. I do think defenses will have to respect him when he is on the field and they could force some teams into nickel more. I also think it will play a role in blitz packages the Bills will see.
Boone22
Footballguy
I put him at #1 only because I hate Flowers situation.
Birdie048
Footballguy
1QB TE Prem 12 team personal ranking
Kendre Miller NOS ~1.08 range (NFL Pick 71)
Dalton Kincaid Buf TE 1.09 (25)
Jonathan Mingo Car WR 1.11(39)
Marvin Mims JR Den WR 1.12 (63)
Zay Flowers Balt WR 2.02 (22)
Roschon Johnson Chi RB 2.03 (115)
I see Kendre Miller as a higher value due to the RB room in NOS. Kamara age (28 soon), legal issues, contract value & Jamaal Williams age 28 & short contract
Kincaid is next in my view as a hybrid weapon in the Buff offense. They will use more 2-TE sets.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Mingo scares me some. I like his landing spot, but he scares me. He has warts. I believe I would have Flowers, Mims, then either Mingo or Johnson.
I have him in a different tier then that group.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Mingo tied to a 1.01 QB looks like they could be working together for a few years and tied to each other... they are dependent on each other for success. I think that has more motivation for Mingo to push harder to excel. But yeah, he does have warts... but who doesn't in this WR class.
dipandglide
Footballguy
#1. I'd take DK ahead of all of them in non-TE premium too.
DK slots into the 1.06-1.10 range in (SF/TE prem) for me. Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison are the only WR's that give me pause. I think you have to take Kincaid due to talent, position, and situation over the WR's. DK is arguably the best pass catcher in the draft.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I literally said that I would accept Kittle and Andrews behind Kelce. To be completely clear, my stance is that there's no meaningful difference between TE4 and TE16, and probably more like TE24.
And I'm the guy who won my league last year, rostering Logan Thomas and Noah Fant.
Three consecutive scoring titles with the Kelce advantage.
I understand there won't be anything comparable to it when he falls off and hangs it up. Whether the future of the TE position is characterized as one guy up top (not as dominant as Kelce) and nobody else matters, or 6 guys up top with nobody else that matters, I want to stay in the group that's at top of the TE advantage, diminished as it may be post-Kelce. Again, my position isn't "I'm definitely taking this guy at 1.7 1QB." It's simply, I'm very open to the idea given the capped upside of the alternatives, along with current roster composition.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In FFPC 1QB, personally, I wouldn't scoff at someone taking him 1.04
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
1QB non-TE premium, I'm viewing the 7th pick like this at this early date:
won't be there: Bijan, Gibbs, JSN
very capable of dropping, but I think I have them over Kincaid if I'm drafting today:
Richardson - usual cheat code narrative, could easily abandon this idea if he's as raw as some have suggested in training camp
Charbonnet - a LOT of vetting on where exactly this situation stands, I think Carroll wasn't as impressed with Walker as the fantasy community, but I think he could have enough value in a run-heavy split backfield.
Very possible that all five of those guys are gone in the first six picks. The debate I'm expecting at #7:
Kincaid - might not even be there
Addison / Flowers / Johnston - I think Addison and Flowers are safe prospects that will be fantasy relevant for years. However, capped upside, start 2 WR+FLEX league, and zero team need are why I'm probably leaning Kincaid. Flowers was my top guy from this group going in and I think he probably still is after landing spot. It's close enough with Addison, and I would get an irrational value spike in my league for the simple fact that he's a Viking. Johnston would be the answer for a WR ceiling play, but I don't love what I'm hearing about his shortcomings at this point. The landing spot means that I have to keep an eye on him and an open mind.
Kendre Miller / Spears - These were the two that I was really pulling for since my ideal world at 1.7 is a RB selection that isn't a reach. Kendre is getting so close, just outside of the 2nd round, and with a path for 2024-2025. Close enough that it's not a reach, but it would still feel just a little bit icky pinning a 1.7 selection on a 3rd round NFL selection. I think I could take him over the WRs, but it would be harder passing on Kincaid. So much can happen on the way to an early 3rd round RB being the guy in a year or two. Spears has some appeal given that I have Henry. Behind that, I'm open to Achane and Roschon as quality depth. But all of these guys are trading down to a lower spot in the 1st or top of the 2nd. Miller is the one guy that I could possibly take 7th. With that said, it might work out better for me taking Addison and trying to work out a trade for Miller or a comparable RB down the line.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Interesting chat here. I’m 1.10 in a 1QB and 1.09 in a SF with Allen as a QB, both non TE premium , so Kincaid is definitely on my radar
Just reticent as have basically never spent high draft capital on a TE
massraider
Footballguy
Josh Allen's pass catching TE for the next 8+ years?
Not sure where his ADP lands, but I will take him before that.
Not sure where his ADP lands, but I will take him before that.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Can I ask why ? I’m just thinking that there’s a new OC in town, a new contract for Lamar and Lamar is actually rated as a top 7 QB for EPA in passes of 5-20 yards between the hash marks across since 2018. Think Flowers could do damage there
Boone22
Footballguy
I mentioned this in the Flowers thread. I think he will at best be the 3rd passing option Behind Andrew’s and Bateman and maybe even Beckham. I know situations change but when I’m using my first round rookie pick, I want a guy who is talented and has a clear path to playing time.
Birdie048
Footballguy
From my perspective, Balt will still be a running offense. Their Passing Volume will not allow 3 receivers to thrive. Andrews will still be #1, and I see Bateman is a close #2, but OBJ getting $15M is clearly #3 while Flowers & Likely will share the remaining 25% with the RBs on targets. The Volume might go up 15-20% from 2022, his career high passing was 400 throws. So 440 is still in QB 28-30 range. The Rushing makes him Top 7. Passing volume will not allow Flowers to be of value as a 1st rn pick (IMO).
TEs rarely stay with the team that drafts them.
jm192
Footballguy
I would question if this is skewed when you account for 1st round vs non-first round.
1st round TEs:
2021 - Pitts (still on rookie deal)
2019 - Fant (traded)
2019 - Hock (traded)
2018 - Hurst (traded)
2017 - Njoku (extended!)
2017 - Engram (signed 2nd contract with Jacksonville)
2017 - Howard (signed 2nd contract with Buffalo)
2014 - Ebron (released)
massraider
Footballguy
Unless there is an analytic reason why this is the case, I'm going to ignore this data point.
At some point, Kelce's successor will emerge. I think it'll be a really good athlete in a good offense.
Is the question not really Kincaid but if you have 2nd pick. How much of gap between him and Mayer, LaPorta, Musgrave and Schoonmaker. Do I go 2 TE or do I grab 1 of each of whatever.
Do I want Kincaid-Mims or Johnson-Musgrave and #2 to me looks better. I am sure same with RB.
Do I want Kincaid-Mims or Johnson-Musgrave and #2 to me looks better. I am sure same with RB.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This hardly seems meaningful
My best guess is that TEs mostly suck and take 3-5 years to develop into actual NFL players. It's likely that there will never be another Kelce, but you're better off trading for the player that does take up that mantle rather than trying to find one blindly.
How so? I answered the question as asked. What would make it more meaningful to you?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
it’s anecdotal and has zero to do with Kincaid. What’s meaningful about it?
massraider
Footballguy
TE has been barren for a while, and everyone expects that to continue. Why?
I completely expect another Kelce, and I'd say we are about due for him. Pitts/Kincaid/Mayer whomever.
People keep drafting 5'9 WRs that are tough and scrappy looking for the next Steve Smith. Much more likely there isn't another Steve Smith, but we keep drafting them.
massraider
Footballguy
Also, the opportunity cost is you are passing on what you hope will be a committee back or a slot WR, I'm not passing on Bijan here.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I see a bunch of underperformers on this list, minus maybe Hock (Pitts is still TBD)
