What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (3 Viewers)

tangfoot said:
massraider said:
tangfoot said:
TEs rarely stay with the team that drafts them.
Click to expand...
Unless there is an analytic reason why this is the case, I'm going to ignore this data point.

At some point, Kelce's successor will emerge. I think it'll be a really good athlete in a good offense.
Click to expand...
My best guess is that TEs mostly suck and take 3-5 years to develop into actual NFL players. It's likely that there will never be another Kelce, but you're better off trading for the player that does take up that mantle rather than trying to find one blindly.
Click to expand...
DK is a WR. He isn't going to be inline banging with the big boys. I'm not saying there isn't a learning curve to WR. I'm just saying I'd compare more to that pool of players than TE. There's been plenty of WR's breaking out before years 3-5.
 
I honestly don’t care if he stays with Allen as long as he performs and they use him as a WR. Actually him going somewhere without having to compete with a WR like Diggs would be ideal.
 
Fwiw, Waldman sent out his post-draft cheatsheet. He has DK ranked 5th and says to bump him to #1 in TE premium leagues. I'm excited to hear more in his post-draft write-up.

Edit - He had a spicy take during the FBG draft show saying he'd take DK over Pitts. Waldman has his misses, but his opinion factors into my draft decisions
 
In a way, this dynasty debate kind of reminds me of the re-draft rule that some fantasy players used to live by, "YOU CAN NOT DRAFT ANY TE WITH YOUR FIRST ROUND PICK."

A rigid rule to live by, not to be challenged. It wasn't "I think Kelce is in for a big downturn this year and here's why...." Instead it was, "You CAN'T take him. He's a TE." His production objectively projects to something on par with a WR that you'd be willing to take in the back half of the first round, but because he's a TE, you can't take him. Despite the fact that his production with a TE designation makes him considerably more valuable, not less.

To be clear, I'm not expecting Kelce production or anything close to it. The point of comparison is that there'd probably be no problem embracing any WR that the Bills would have selected at this spot to come and push Gabe Davis out of the way. Instead of going that route, they drafted a pass-catching, seam-stretching TE.

I think it's fair to say that he probably won't be an instant impact on the scale of what we've seen with some of the recent rookie WRs. There is nuance to the position and they're surely going to ask him to play the position in its traditional sense to some degree. The presence of Knox can't be ignored. If you're shooting for TE3 (I am), then you're probably not getting that until Year 3. But I think it's somewhat naive to think that we're not going to hear a thing from this guy or that he won't be usable in fantasy lineups for 3 years because that's the way it always used to be.

I promise you that Buffalo didn't watch the tape of the Bengals game and say, we're fine. Let's run this back as is. Invest the 1st rounder in a developmental TE that won't see the field until 2025 and let's call it good.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
dipandglide said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just went 1.07 in a 16-team SF PPR TE-P start 2 TE format rookie draft.
Click to expand...
That's too late unless QB/WR/RB scoring is premium too
Click to expand...
It’s also SF & IDP but no - not premium anything else.

I thought 7 was spot on.
Bijan, Young, ARich, Stroud, Gibbs, JSN ~> 🎯

Who should he have gone ahead of?
Click to expand...
RB/WR's lose a lot of value in this format. DK should've gone ahead of Gibbs and JSN at the very least.
 
dipandglide said:
RB/WR's lose a lot of value in this format. DK should've gone ahead of Gibbs and JSN at the very least.
Click to expand...
Strongly disagree, but to each their own.

RB/WR are still mandatory starting positions (2/3 min respectively) so it more depends on how you value Gibbs.

I could see the case for taking him over JSN, but it’s not like he’s guaranteed ti be Kelce 2.0
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
dipandglide said:
RB/WR's lose a lot of value in this format. DK should've gone ahead of Gibbs and JSN at the very least.
Click to expand...
Strongly disagree, but to each their own.

RB/WR are still mandatory starting positions (2/3 min respectively) so it more depends on how you value Gibbs.

I could see the case for taking him over JSN, but it’s not like he’s guaranteed ti be Kelce 2.0
Click to expand...
I love Gibbs. But he won't be able to hold a candle to DK's value in this format if DK develops into a top 5 option.
Click to expand...
 
I'm coming up on the 1.09 and think he'll be available in SF/TE premium. Think I have to take him if he's around, and try like hell to be patient.
 
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Josh Allen reportedly “blew up” Brandon Beane’s phone with excitement after he found out the Bills were selecting Dalton Kincaid. Several NFL scouts and coaches reportedly believe Kincaid’s game has “flashes” of Travis Kelce in it. Bills GM Brandon Beane said he believes Kincaid will “pair well” with Dawson Knox. Josh Allen got himself a WEAPON
Click to expand...
 
foxco said:
I'm coming up on the 1.09 and think he'll be available in SF/TE premium. Think I have to take him if he's around, and try like hell to be patient.
Click to expand...
Ended up trading down to 1.11 and taking Kincaid. I'm on board. Not expecting too much first season, hopefully '24 he takes off.
 
ghostguy123 said:
In an FFPC 1qb league where I have pick 7, I can almost guarantee Kincaid will not be available for me
Click to expand...
12 Team 1 QB 0.5 PPR + TE -P (1.0 PPR) I have 1.07 & 1.08 and Kincaid has a high probability to be there for me ... But owner at 1.04 needs TE upgrade (Everett & Hunter) and I cannot see him taking Kincaid with his WR needs (Jameson victim). But you never know ...
I can see that each fantasy rookie draft will be just as wacked out as the NFL Draft was for fantasy position values based on format and needs
 
ghostguy123 said:
In an FFPC 1qb league where I have pick 7, I can almost guarantee Kincaid will not be available for me
Click to expand...
Most likely not. Already saw one FFPC rookie draft that started and he went 5th. My guess is you got something like a 20-25% chance but that's just a wild guess as I'm not expecting a ton of consensus in that area.
 
Took him at 1.08 in a regular PPR, 12 team league TE required. There were like 4 RBs I couldn’t decide between and no WR’s left I liked at that point
 
Birdie048 said:
ghostguy123 said:
In an FFPC 1qb league where I have pick 7, I can almost guarantee Kincaid will not be available for me
Click to expand...
12 Team 1 QB 0.5 PPR + TE -P (1.0 PPR) I have 1.07 & 1.08 and Kincaid has a high probability to be there for me ... But owner at 1.04 needs TE upgrade (Everett & Hunter) and I cannot see him taking Kincaid with his WR needs (Jameson victim). But you never know ...
I can see that each fantasy rookie draft will be just as wacked out as the NFL Draft was for fantasy position values based on format and needs
Click to expand...
I hope so! Everyone following the same ADP is lame
 
menobrown said:
ghostguy123 said:
In an FFPC 1qb league where I have pick 7, I can almost guarantee Kincaid will not be available for me
Click to expand...
Most likely not. Already saw one FFPC rookie draft that started and he went 5th. My guess is you got something like a 20-25% chance but that's just a wild guess as I'm not expecting a ton of consensus in that area.
Click to expand...
The guy in front of me has pick 4-5-6, and is very deep at WR already, and weak at TE.
Seems clear to me, more like 1%, lol
 
I hate the bills and never draft tight ends early. I think most elite fantasy tight ends are guys who were drafted outside the first round and I don't chase first round tight ends ever. Even Pitts.

This is different.

First, the bills didn't just take him in the first. They traded up to get him. So what. Lots of teams trade up to get their guy. But they watched 4 receivers go in the first round and they didn't blink. There are zero stories of them trying to trade up to get jsn qj Addison or flowers. They waited until those guys were gone and traded up to get Kincaid.

Ok fine maybe they just needed a tight end. Nope. They seem plenty happy with Knox, who not only went to a pro bowl but caught two touchdowns. They've had a revolving door at receiver after Diggs.

Enter Kincaid. His position might be tight end but he's almost worthless as a blocker.

Watch him play. Tight ends are supposed to look big and awkward adjusting to the ball when they're running. Kincaid catches anything thrown near him. He looks so fluid in his routes and catching the ball without losing a step. He's a big wide receiver.

Look at his giant mitts and arm length. His route running at every level of the defense. He's an elite receiving option.

And the bills need a second option. It turns out tight ends do better when they're the number one or two target for their team. There is a clear and obvious path for him to get targeted more frequently than Gabe Davis. And Diggs is getting older.

And he's tied to the best passer in this league not named mahomes. The guy tied to mahomes has been the top te in fantasy by far for the last few years. The number two receiver for Burrow just out performed expectations. The tight end for Brady did pretty good for a while. Elite tight ends- the actual game changing tight ends - usually play with elite quarterbacks.

This is a perfect storm pick. Get this guy.
 

ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg believes the Bills will use TE Dalton Kincaid "more like a wide receiver" this season.​

The Bills traded up for Kincaid in last month's draft, in a move that surprised many at the time. Even with veteran tight end Dawson Knox on the roster, the Bills didn't hesitate to move up and select Kincaid, who figures to see a lot of time in the slot as a rookie. General manager Brandon Beane said of Kincaid, "We think he'll pair well with Dawson and give us another target in the middle of the field. So, yeah, when him and Dawson are in the game, you're in '12' [personnel], but it's quasi like '11' anyway." In layman's terms, this is football talk for saying even when the Bills have two tight ends on the field, it will be more like they have one tight end and three receivers, with Kincaid presumably playing in the slot. Beane specifically mentioned Kincaid as "a receiving tight end", which could bode well for fantasy managers taking shots on him this offseason. Over the last three seasons, the Bills have been one of the more aggressive teams in the league, boasting a pass frequency over expected of seven percent. Kincaid played a career-high 55.1 percent of his snaps from the slot in his final year with Utah, finishing with a line of 70-890-8. He has a chance to be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses in his rookie campaign.
SOURCE: ESPN
May 8, 2023, 12:15 PM ET
Click to expand...
 
I'm pretty big on him and people can start citing off all the failed TE's for fantasy the NFL drafted high but I think you got a look a little deeper.

Just because the NFL drafts a TE high does not mean they have much in the way of intending to feature them in the passing game. Hard to always know how this will work. Kittle's best college highlights IMO was him destroying people blocking and his stats were nothing great. But some are easier then others to get an idea on.

In the last 10 years I would rate Kincaid out as the second highest I've rated an incoming rookie TE, behind Pitts. For fantasy. Major key with both, which is highlighted in that post by Faust a few up is these guys were drafted to be involved as WR's and when you actually play slot or outside more then a TE your learning curve is more in line with that of a WR then a TE. So the "it takes 2-3 years" thing does not hold a lot of water with me(also most TE's take major leaps by year two or they don't, most, not all). That Buffalo takes it slow with their first year players is a little bummer I would admit, but they might need to alter that approach with him. Saying all that if he takes into next year to start breaking out I'm good with it.

He's been a major target of mine since January. Drafted him in my first few FFPC redrafts. I had picks at 5, 5, and 6 in FFPC and kind of thought in my head for months now he was my "ace in the hole" if things did not shake out well. Like most I figured I knew the likely top 3 and figured a few RB's or some WR's would land well and he'd be a guaranteed option but I might be able to trade back and get him. Then after the draft I ended up sweating for a week that I could even get him with those picks. I tried trading up to 4 and got rebuffed. I ended up drafting him with both 5's, missed out with the 6 but traded for 4 in another league and took him. So I'm all aboard.
 

Bills signed No. 25 overall pick Dalton Kincaid to a four-year contract with a fifth-year option.​

The Bills traded up in the first round to select the towering tight end out of Utah in this year's draft. His signing marks the final rookie contract for the Bills, who now have all six selections under contract. It is unclear what the plans for Kincaid are in his rookie season after reports surfaced that the 6' 4" tight end would be used more like a wide receiver in the coming season. At the time, the move up to select a tight end made little sense considering the Bills recently extended presumed starting tight end Dawson Knox. Either way, the Bills have yet another dynamic chess piece at their disposal as they look to capitalize on the prime years of quarterback Josh Allen.
May 13, 2023, 3:35 PM ET
Click to expand...
 
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh Dalton Kincaid is reportedly going to be utilized in a “similar fashion” to the way the Chiefs utilize Travis Kelce. The Bills refer to Kincaid as a “weapon” rather than a traditional TE. Josh Allen was reportedly “persistent” in his talks with GM Brandon Beane heading into the NFL Draft that he wanted Kincaid. Allen said he was “very, very happy” when the Bills selected Kincaid and said he would help the offense out “a lot” going into next season. The Bills receiving core now includes Kincaid, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Khalil Shakir
Click to expand...

 
I don’t know what he looks like against NFL defenses, but this dude has some rare talent. He’s so smooth and natural. He finds the soft spots in the defense, he runs by guys, he runs over guys, he makes great adjustments to the ball, and he has such great soft hands.
 

Bills OC Ken Dorsey said of TE Dalton Kincaid: "We're nowhere close to knowing what the big picture is going to be because we have to learn him and he has to learn us."​

His role is "to be determined," Dorsey noted. This isn't exactly a "pump the breaks on the hype" moment for Kincaid's soaring TE1 stock, but it does say something that Dorsey isn't completely on record as being married to Kincaid getting a huge share of the targets. The Bills drafted Kincaid 25th overall and have said plenty that they plan to use him more like a wide receiver this season. Dorsey can surely find something to do with him this year, the question is just what that will eventually look like.
SOURCE: Joe Buscaglia on Twitter
May 30, 2023 at 1:21 PM ET
Click to expand...
 
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Dalton Kincaid has reportedly had an “impressive start” to OTA’s with the Bills. Kincaid has reportedly been running with the first team during 11-on-11’s. Today, Kincaid reportedly hauled in a 20-yard post corner and then moments later followed it up with the highlight of the day. A 40-yard TD catch after toasting the defense through the seam. The Bills rookie TE building an EARLY chemistry with Josh Allen
Click to expand...
 
The most important takeaway so far is that Allen and Kincaid have been building chemistry and trust. Once the season starts, Allen tends to rely heavily on the guys he thinks he can trust. If Kincaid can earn that trust now, it could pay big dividends both for the Bills and for fantasy managers.
 
Expecting to see a lot of 2-TE sets out of Buffalo this season. Kincaid could absolutely finish 2nd on this team in receiving.
 
thebuffalofanatics.com

Players in Review (2022): Gabe Davis

For the next few weeks, I’m going to review different Buffalo Bills players and discuss how they performed this past season. Working with Iestyn Harris, we’re going to highlight players who fans have had some questions about during the season and moving forward. The first player who I want to...
thebuffalofanatics.com thebuffalofanatics.com

This article is from before the NFL draft this year. I think this part is telling:

"The former fourth-round pick also set a career-low in catch rate, only catching 51.6% of the balls thrown his way. (For what it’s worth, he posted a 56.5% catch rate in ’20 and a 55.6% rate in ’21.)"

"According to Pro Football Reference, he dropped nine passes in his 15 regular season games, T-4th worst in the league. (The Buffalo Bills had 38 dropped passes as a team, which was fourth-worst.)"
 
Gabe davis had 9 drops on 93 targets last year and has generally caught about 50-55 percent of his targets. Which isn't that bad for a field stretcher with 17 yards a catch. But it's not the guy you want to throw to on 3rd and 7.

Now look at Dawson Knox. 230 targets catches. 149 catches. About 65% catch rate. 22 drops. About 10 percent drop rate. Ouch.

Diggs? 108 catches on 154 targets. 8 drops.

Compare that with this tweet

"Dalton Kincaid had a total of 165 targets in his college career. He registered 126 receptions and only dropped 2 passes!!! 2!!!! That's a 1.6% drop rate Also pitched in a career contested catch rate of 58.8%...."

Kincaid had over a 75 percent catch rate in college and they weren't just short dump offs.

There's a reason they traded up to pick him in the first. He fills a need on their offense for a reliable receiver but he isn't just a third down guy or a sub package tight end. There's a very real path to be an elite fantasy tight end here
 
bostonfred said:
thebuffalofanatics.com

Players in Review (2022): Gabe Davis

For the next few weeks, I’m going to review different Buffalo Bills players and discuss how they performed this past season. Working with Iestyn Harris, we’re going to highlight players who fans have had some questions about during the season and moving forward. The first player who I want to...
thebuffalofanatics.com thebuffalofanatics.com

This article is from before the NFL draft this year. I think this part is telling:

"The former fourth-round pick also set a career-low in catch rate, only catching 51.6% of the balls thrown his way. (For what it’s worth, he posted a 56.5% catch rate in ’20 and a 55.6% rate in ’21.)"

"According to Pro Football Reference, he dropped nine passes in his 15 regular season games, T-4th worst in the league. (The Buffalo Bills had 38 dropped passes as a team, which was fourth-worst.)"
Click to expand...
It's also a a function on how he's used as well - mostly a deep threat. With that said either he's incapable of running the route tree or the Bills only want to use him as a deep threat so his low catch rate is unlikely to change.
 
bostonfred said:
Gabe davis had 9 drops on 93 targets last year and has generally caught about 50-55 percent of his targets. Which isn't that bad for a field stretcher with 17 yards a catch. But it's not the guy you want to throw to on 3rd and 7.

Now look at Dawson Knox. 230 targets catches. 149 catches. About 65% catch rate. 22 drops. About 10 percent drop rate. Ouch.

Diggs? 108 catches on 154 targets. 8 drops.

Compare that with this tweet

"Dalton Kincaid had a total of 165 targets in his college career. He registered 126 receptions and only dropped 2 passes!!! 2!!!! That's a 1.6% drop rate Also pitched in a career contested catch rate of 58.8%...."

Kincaid had over a 75 percent catch rate in college and they weren't just short dump offs.

There's a reason they traded up to pick him in the first. He fills a need on their offense for a reliable receiver but he isn't just a third down guy or a sub package tight end. There's a very real path to be an elite fantasy tight end here
Click to expand...
In one of those behind-the-scenes draft videos, Beane and McDermott turn to their main analytics guy and say something along the lines of, "he has the best hands you've ever seen, right?" and the analytics guy confirms. McDermott was downright giddy.

Here's the video: https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1656434691979747333

Needless to say they love his hands.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Faust
College TE Jaheim Bell, FSU
Replies
8
Views
241
Faust
Faust
Faust
College WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
Replies
35
Views
1K
Faust
Faust
Faust
College RB Audric Estimé, Notre Dame
2
Replies
54
Views
2K
Faust
Faust

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Top