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TE Jimmy Graham, CHI (1 Viewer)
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I feel like he's probably not going to have the receptions needed to do that. Gronk has far less competition and is going to rack up points.
I could see Graham having something like 70/900/12, though... and just kill it with the TDs. That would put him in the top 3 for sure.
matuski
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
This. He doesn’t look 27 at all IMO.
I can agree with that. His situation seems perfect though. Rodgers will get the most out of him and he can be a nightmare with Adams commanding a lot of attention outside.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The perceived potential with Jimmy is him possibly becoming the de facto red zone target. I think, however, that Adams and even a "lesser" Cobb are quality red zone targets so It will be neat trick if Jimmy exceeds 5 or 6 TDs. So if he were $14 versus $20 in the sub contest I'd be all over it, but at current price its meh.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I could sign off on a ceiling of 9 or 10 TDs, but 12?? With Adams and Cobb and others in attendance? If that happens it will be a blistering indictment of Seattle.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I don't see that kind of target share. Cobb has plenty left. He's the #2 imo.
80-90 targets is probably Jimmy Graham's ceiling. Looking back over the last 7-8 years GB has had only one TE targeted more than 90 times. That was Finley in 2011 with 92 targets. I don't see Graham as this dynamic play maker that GB is going to force targets to. He'll get his 75-85 targets and 500-700 yards receiving. Where he's going to possibly shine is the redzone. I can absolutely see double digit TD's. He could even lead the league in receiving TD's this year.
Nothing wrong with a 60-700-10 season. 190 points in PPR. That would have made him the 4th highest scoring TE last year.
Milkman
Footballguy
Jordy had 120 redzone targets and 63 TDs in the last 6 years he played in GB. He missed that one year because of injury. In 2016 Jordy had a whopping 31 redzone targets alone. In 2014 he had 28. If Graham is the #1 option in the redzone and he gets 20 plus redzone targets 9-10 TDs is his floor. If he's not the #1 option then obviously he's not going to get enough targets to hit that.
First play inside the 10 yard line. Bam! Rodgers to Jimmy. I can understand the excitement.
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apalmer
Footballguy
The numbers you "can see" would put him within a few points of what Dodds predicts for Gronk, and well ahead of Kelce.
Those predictions are generally for the fantasy season -15 games (through week 16). So I'm saying best case, he's still 20+ points behind what Gronk should average this season. That's a big difference.
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Every indication, whether it be the contract they gave him, or how they talked about him this offseason, is that Green Bay sees him as a dynamic playmaker who is BY FAR, the best TE the Packers have had in at least 20 years. I think previous TE numbers with Rodgers are irrelevant, If he sees under 100 targets I'd be shocked(barring injury, which is hardly a given with Graham) I fully expect Graham to score more points than Cobb, though I agree Cobb isn't finished by any means.
Green Bay in general, I think, has a very underrated offense. The defense is going through some big changes and likely will be average at best, and Rodgers has had monster years each of the other 2 times he's come back from injury plagued seasons. I think its possible Cobb is a top-25 WR, as well as Graham being a top-3 TE, along with Adams as a top-5 WR. This looks like the NFL's best offense(at least passing offense) to me.
Is it crazy to think Rodgers could throw 45 scores? Is Graham catching 30%(13-14) really that unlikely?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
It could happen. Is it unlikely? Of course it is. Pre-Seattle Graham could do it. Is he the same player? Does GB have the flexibility to transparently move Jordy's production to Graham? I don't know.
kutta
Footballguy
How much did Brees target the TE before Graham? How much did Wilson target the TE before Graham?
When you don't have a good TE, you don't target him.
Milkman
Footballguy
I own Graham and I wish I could agree with you. I mean I think we are close with our scoring predictions. We just differ on how he's going to score them. I'm all over Cobb this year though. I see a big year from all three as well. Jimmy just looked done running routes last year to me. I don't see him turning back the clock here. He is in one of the best, if not the best, redzone situation in the league. 10-15 TDs is happening if he stays healthy. If you think 70 receptions and 900 yards is happening you have to reach for him. That's win your league production from the TE position.
Milkman
Footballguy
I hope you guys are right but I think you're making a mistake thinking you're getting peak Jimmy. He looked like a shell of himself last year.
kutta
Footballguy
I know...
But man, this just feels so right.
And, just looking at last year's PPR stats, even a "shell of himself" Jimmy ended the year as TE #6, just a few points away from being TE #4 (behind only Kelce, Gronk, and Ertz).
And, from weeks 3-12, he was THE #1 TE last year. He started slowly and finished slowly, but he had a very nice stretch of 10 games where he was the top TE in fantasy.
So yes, my hopes are pretty high for him this year being in GB. We'll see how it goes.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll say it again. Seattle had absolutely no idea what they were doing with him between the 20s. Stick routes. Short out routes and the occasional seam route. Vanilla TE concepts.
Maybe he lost a step. I wonder if he quit out there (which is not good) because of how stupid Seattle was with him. I don't see GB making the same mistake.
Maybe he lost a step. I wonder if he quit out there (which is not good) because of how stupid Seattle was with him. I don't see GB making the same mistake.
Milkman
Footballguy
Because GB has a history of heavily using their TE?
Time will tell. I hope you guys are right. There is reasons to be excited.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
Agreed. I think Graham is no. 2 option behind only Adams.
From last night's game:
That's a lot of targets to the TE.
Milkman
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I sure like hearing this:
http://tv5.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/279644/fantasy-fallout-christian-mccaffrey-jimmy-graham-generating-buzz
"Graham has caught everything thrown his way," Demovsky said.
It's easy to imagine a lot of red zone work for Graham, since touchdowns have become his specialty (he had 10 TDs on just 57 catches in Seattle last season). But Rodgers suggested the Packers might also use Graham more in the middle of the field than the Seahawks did.
"He can do it all over the field," Rodgers said. "I don't think he was used a ton in the past couple of years in the middle of the field, but he's an incredible athlete, he's got a wide, wide catch radius and there's a lot of things he can do. It's exciting to be able to have a guy like that."
http://tv5.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/279644/fantasy-fallout-christian-mccaffrey-jimmy-graham-generating-buzz
"Graham has caught everything thrown his way," Demovsky said.
It's easy to imagine a lot of red zone work for Graham, since touchdowns have become his specialty (he had 10 TDs on just 57 catches in Seattle last season). But Rodgers suggested the Packers might also use Graham more in the middle of the field than the Seahawks did.
"He can do it all over the field," Rodgers said. "I don't think he was used a ton in the past couple of years in the middle of the field, but he's an incredible athlete, he's got a wide, wide catch radius and there's a lot of things he can do. It's exciting to be able to have a guy like that."
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah maybe he could be more of a possession receiver like Tony Gonzalez was towards the end of his career but then add in double digit TD's. Which I think he's as close to a lock for DD TD's as anybody in the league really.
Absolutely. Finley was fantastic. Cook flopped because he sucked. Bennett was used creatively but wasn't a team player.
Graham, even at this stage in his career, is a better receiver than all of them.
Great coaches find a way to use elite talent. McCarthy is a great coach.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
If you distill all the debate here, it ALL comes down to those who believe Graham is toast and those who do not.
Noteably, different people watched the exact same Seattle games last year and came to opposite conclusions.
Noteably, different people watched the exact same Seattle games last year and came to opposite conclusions.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah he's def not the same player running routes. Is Rodgers and/or an increase in targets enough to offset the the step he's lost? That's the question for me.
I like as a high floor and high upside pick though. I'll take 50-550-10 at his ADP. That's his floor imo.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
My thinking is even if you accept the premise (which I don't) that he's old and can't run routes and get separation anymore, you can still be an elite TE if you know how to box out, have good hands, and receive opportunities. I see the floor/expectation/ceiling as TE16 / TE5 / TE2 where the floor is only that low if you start with the assumption that he won't get the RZ targets vacated by Jordy. In a redraft, I think he should be the 4th TE taken off the board.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
10 TD floor. I don't think people understand what floor means. I like Graham this year but there is definitely a plausible reality where Graham ends this year hurt off and on, never gels with Rodgers and ends up with 500ish yards and 4 tds. His first year is Seattle he played 11 games and finished 600/2. He's way slower than he was then.Milkman said:
Milkman
Footballguy
I don't think people understand floors are based on staying healthy. If it wasn't everybody's floor would be 0-0-0.
matuski
Footballguy
You don't factor health into projections. And leaving the QB in Seattle is a HUGE positive for him.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Even if you assume he is healthy all year, he was healthy all 2016 and didn't hit 10 tds. In 2015 he played 11 games and had 2 TD's. That's hardly a 10 td pace.
How is leaving Seattle a huge positive to him. Due to their RB's all dying and them having no Oline, he was essentially their GL back. You realize he led the league in red zone targets in 2017? For the QB that threw the most TDs last year? And we are going to take his 10 td finish, which led the league for TEs and consider that his floor?
Milkman
Footballguy
If you don't see the difference between playing with Rodgers and playing with Wilson I can't help you. Cheers.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
My stance isn't a Wilson is as good as Rodgers argument. Its more I think it's likely Jimmy Graham is washed up and bad and Rodgers will simply throw those TDs to someone else who isn't washed up and bad. But yeah agree to disagree.
kutta
Footballguy
He put up pretty darn good numbers last year for a guy who’s washed up and bad...
matuski
Footballguy
Really?
Russell Wilson is many things, but he is not an accomplished passer. Even those goal line plays were largely school yard ball.
He will run routes and Rodgers will hit him on time with precision. And I'm not sure anyone is above him as you're "GL back" in GB either. This will be more a la New Orleans between the 20s, and still retain the red zone usage. In my opinion of course.
CalBear
Footballguy
Russell Wilson is a great passer. One of the best in the league. Third amongst active QBs in yards/attempt, second in TD%, second in passer rating. In all rate stats he is near the top of the league. He doesn't pass as much as the other top QBs but he is highly accomplished.
Now to be fair, the one guy who is above him in all those stats is Aaron Rodgers. So clearly Graham is getting an upgrade. But in terms of QB quality it's an incremental upgrade. In terms of offensive pass attempts it may be a more than incremental upgrade.
Milkman
Footballguy
Agreed. Rodgers and GB throw more from inside the 5 than anybody though. That's the big upgrade Jimmy is getting.
mr. peanut
Footballguy
Wilson led the league in passing TD's. Hard to find a better situation than that for a TE.
matuski
Footballguy
All those stats for him on passing are impacted by his athletic ability and skills extending plays. Not his perfected ability to read defenses and timing on routes. Not his ability to locate passes.
To be sure - I am not trying to slight Wilson, I love the guy. He just isn't Rodgers.. and relative to Rodgers you cannot call him a "great passer".
Go back and look at those "post up" goal line plays for Graham last year... so many
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
CalBear
Footballguy
OK, relative to maybe the best passer ever to play the game, Wilson isn't great.
But relative to almost everyone else, he is. How many NFL passers other than Rodgers can you even make an argument for? Brady, Brees, and then...Ryan? Rivers?
So, at your prompting, I just watched Graham's 2017 highlight video:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000921019/Jimmy-Graham-highlights-2017-season
I see exactly zero bad throws from Wilson. I see a whole bunch of on-time, on-target throws leading the receiver in the direction you'd want to lead him. Maybe the one at 3:19 could have been further outside, but Graham was also getting held all through the route.
And almost all the throws are from the pocket.
Rodgers is great. Any receiver getting passes from Rodgers gets an upgrade. But your assertion that Wilson "is not an accomplished passer" is disconnected from reality. Wilson is a great passer.
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matuski
Footballguy
You watched a highlight video looking for bad throws? I might start there with my issues.
But you do indeed see bad throws there.
