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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (1 Viewer)

Obviously, I'm not expecting him to come in as a rookie and produce like the best fantasy tight end of all time. But considering he's getting drafted ahead of WRs who will probably end up with some combination of 1,100 / 10 Touchdowns in their career, and all the hype people are buying into.

I'm saying, if this guy never catches 80+ catches a season, he's a bust based on the hype itself. He needs to produce like Waller, Kelce, and Kittle to justify where you're taking him. I see an rich man's Jared Cook going to a team with proven QB talent.

 
Also, I haven't read the thread but I think that Matt Ryan's success of producing numbers with Austin Hooper and Tony Gonzalez bode well for Pitts.

Matt Ryan is prepared to fire 80 to 130 targets to his primary TE as soon as they are ready for them.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Complete list of rookie Tight Ends who exceeded 900 yards in a season:

Mike Ditka, 1961

(in the last 60 NFL seasons, five other players topped 700 yards; only five more topped 600 yards)

Complete list of rookie Tight Ends who had double digit Touchdowns in a season:

Mike Ditka, 1961 
Rob Gronkowski, 2010

In the last 32 seasons, the only TE1s (top 12) were Shockey 2002, Gronk 2010, Engram 2017.

He is such a can’t miss prospect. With Julio gone I think he has a great chance to have a historic season.
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Long odds, but I’m right there with you. 
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That 17th game, 6% more opportunity, should help his overall year 1 numbers as well.  

4.5 rec, 55 yards, .5 tds per game?  Doesn't seem too far fetched in the Falcons offense.

 
facook said:
That 17th game, 6% more opportunity, should help his overall year 1 numbers as well.  

4.5 rec, 55 yards, .5 tds per game?  Doesn't seem too far fetched in the Falcons offense.
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Yeah, the projections in the 1st link @Faustposted a page back had roughly that projected for the season. I think it’s well within reach, but if he doesn’t hit those numbers his rookie year I wouldn’t call him a disappointment. 

 
facook said:
That 17th game, 6% more opportunity, should help his overall year 1 numbers as well.  

4.5 rec, 55 yards, .5 tds per game?  Doesn't seem too far fetched in the Falcons offense.
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I keep seeing people referencing this as helping his numbers but won't that help everyone's numbers so in comparison it's a wash?  I don't necessarily care what his overall numbers are as much as how they are compared to the other TE's.  The 17th game will add to all other players.

 
Gally said:
I keep seeing people referencing this as helping his numbers but won't that help everyone's numbers so in comparison it's a wash?  I don't necessarily care what his overall numbers are as much as how they are compared to the other TE's.  The 17th game will add to all other players.
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but brawndo has what plants crave

 
Gally said:
I keep seeing people referencing this as helping his numbers but won't that help everyone's numbers so in comparison it's a wash?  I don't necessarily care what his overall numbers are as much as how they are compared to the other TE's.  The 17th game will add to all other players.
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Absolutely.  I was referencing a specific projection for Pitts, and how the 17th game made it more likely for him to hit that projection.  Not that a 17th game should impact his ranking compared to other tight ends.

 
Gally said:
I keep seeing people referencing this as helping his numbers but won't that help everyone's numbers so in comparison it's a wash?  I don't necessarily care what his overall numbers are as much as how they are compared to the other TE's.  The 17th game will add to all other players.
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But It is important to extrapolate when referencing the historic performances comparison for predictions, right? 
 

I’m crazy for Pitts. My concern is mostly new offense/coach. Does the change take too long? Where I have to draft him, I need him for my “win now” team. 

 
Falcons signed No. 4 overall pick TE Kyle Pitts to a four-year, $32.9 million contract.

The contract is fully guaranteed and includes a fifth-year team option. With the signing, Pitts is officially the seventh highest-paid tight end in the league. Tight ends don't typically make waves in their first pro season but Pitts is arguably the best tight end prospect the league has ever seen. Pitts (6'6/245) has prototypical size but was also massively productive at Florida, 96.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in his final season with the Gators. Atlanta has moved on from Julio Jones since taking Pitts, forcing him into a sizable role as a rookie. Notes from minicamp have also indicated that the Falcons plan to feed in his debut season. Despite the history of rookie tight ends casting some doubt on Pitts, he is rightfully being selected as a top-five option at his position in fantasy drafts. 

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Jun 29, 2021, 1:10 PM ET
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Opinions of Pitts and how he will perform in his rookie year vary. But in a keeper league redraft, I’m having a hard time gauging which round he should be taken. 

 
3nOut said:
Opinions of Pitts and how he will perform in his rookie year vary. But in a keeper league redraft, I’m having a hard time gauging which round he should be taken. 
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A lot depends on keeper rules. 

The league I play in, you can keep 5 guys, in the round you drafted them.  For as long as you like.  Pitts is worth a 3 or 4 in those leagues, IMO.  

 
massraider said:
Unverified reports from Twitter that Pitts is mainly being used in the slot.  

Ohhhhh baby
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Serious question here. The risk we have here with him that most people bring up is that rookie TEs have a tough adjustment period to the NFL. If he's playing a lot in the slot and I thought I heard some out wide, the risk should be lowered right? Because he'll be just out there playing WR, trying to get open like he did in college?

 
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
Serious question here. The risk we have here with him that most people bring up is that rookie TEs have a tough adjustment period to the NFL. If he's playing a lot in the slot and I thought I heard some out wide, the risk should be lowered right? Because he'll be just out there playing WR, trying to get open like he did in college?
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A recent FBG article was eluding to exactly that. That folks are basing the "bust" potential judgement on the rate of TE success. 

But if Pitts is being used exclusively as a receiver out of the slot and on the outside, then we really need to set expectations as though he's a WR. and PLENTY of 1st year WRs have had success in the NFL. Look at Jefferson last year. 

And folks are making comps to Calvin Johnson. 

So if the expectation changes from "1st year TE" to "1st year Calvin Johnson", then the reasonable floor is significantly elevated & his "bust" potential is significantly reduced. 

@Sigmund Bloom had the highest projections for him - 78 receptions, 1055 yards & 12 TDs.  :wub:  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
A recent FBG article was eluding to exactly that. That folks are basing the "bust" potential judgement on the rate of TE success. 

But if Pitts is being used exclusively as a receiver out of the slot and on the outside, then we really need to set expectations as though he's a WR. and PLENTY of 1st year WRs have had success in the NFL. Look at Jefferson last year. 

And folks are making comps to Calvin Johnson. 

So if the expectation changes from "1st year TE" to "1st year Calvin Johnson", then the reasonable floor is significantly elevated & his "bust" potential is significantly reduced. 

@Sigmund Bloom had the highest projections for him - 78 receptions, 1055 yards & 12 TDs.  :wub:  
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I am really starting to come around on him as a redraft option because of him playing WR it seems at times and not just typically a TE.

 
zamboni said:
I think you hit on it with 1QB.

In 2QB leagues, have to imagine his value is much lower.
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This puzzles me. Why would an elite TE’s value be effected by how many QBs one can start? 

Having a Kelce, Kittle, Waller and possibly Andrews/Hockensen/Pitts should give a team a roster advantage in either 1 or 2 QB formats. 

Can you explain this reasoning? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
This puzzles me. Why would an elite TE’s value be effected by how many QBs one can start? 

Having a Kelce, Kittle, Waller and possibly Andrews/Hockensen/Pitts should give a team a roster advantage in either 1 or 2 QB formats. 

Can you explain this reasoning? 
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He's talking about ADP.  In a SF league, QBs clog up the top of a draft, pushing other positions further down on average.

It doesn't change the positional ranking, just where they are selected.

 
tangfoot said:
He's talking about ADP.  In a SF league, QBs clog up the top of a draft, pushing other positions further down on average.

It doesn't change the positional ranking, just where they are selected.
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Ah - gotcha. Yes definitely agree. Thanks for the clarification. 

1 QB he’s a top 3 rookie pick. SF he’s still top 10 but people go QB crazy. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
tangfoot said:
He's talking about ADP.  In a SF league, QBs clog up the top of a draft, pushing other positions further down on average.

It doesn't change the positional ranking, just where they are selected.
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Ah - gotcha. Yes definitely agree. Thanks for the clarification. 

1 QB he’s a top 3 rookie pick. SF he’s still top 10 but people go QB crazy. 
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Yes, tangfoot explained it well in terms of ADP/drafting. Sorry for the confusion.

 
Lots of people took Pitts ahead of top QBs in SF rookie drafts this year. Chase as well. FFPC that is. And SF is different than 2QB but if I already had top QBs I took Pitts.

 
dickey moe said:
It's overblown hype like this that will make his ADP even more overvalued. 
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Wait until they play a preseason game. 

However I don’t see it as overblown.

thought experiment: Ignore the name. Tell me a 6’6” 240 lb WR who runs a 4.4 40 qualifies at TE & I’ll take them in the 3rd or 4th round in every league. 

Now tell me that player is stepping into a situation with 100+ targets vacated & an accurate MVP QB who loves throwing to TEs & I’m in :wub:  

 
The only rookie TE comp that makes sense is Ditka. But that doesn't really either because most of us weren't even alive yet. The game has changed multiple times since then. 

Hockenson, V Davis, Ebron, others that were taken high in the draft, *were not* taken before the first defensive player or non-QB came off the board. Ditka doesn't fit that either. It is entirely possible that *all* of the rookie TE comps are apples to oranges.

And that said, Pitts might still fall flat. I'm betting against it but if he hits the ceiling as a rookie I'm not even sure we would be able to call that an exception. 

Outside of injuries I don't know how he gets less than 100-120 targets in this offense. They brought him in to be one of two primary passing game weapons. Even if he falls flat he is going to be running routes and getting targets.

 
The kid isn't going to bust. He's filling the shoes of Julio freaking Jones. Tons of targets and opportunities. I hate that all my dynasty teams were too good last year to pick that high to grab some shares.  :kicksrock:

 
ffmail4me said:
The kid isn't going to bust. He's filling the shoes of Julio freaking Jones. Tons of targets and opportunities. 
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No question he's set up to get a lot of opportunity, but the question is whether we can gain separation against NFL defenders like he did against college guys. Certainly seems to fit the part given his speed to outmaneuver LBs and the strength to out muscle defensive backs, but doesn't mean it will happen when teams game plan on him. We'll see. 

 
I assumed at 1.3 in 2 different 1qb leagues that I would be getting Pitts but ended up with Harris/Chase as he went 2 in both. Kinda surprised and not sure how I feel in retrospect, but it will be interesting to follow the big 3. Feel pretty good about all 3 of their prospects. 

 
IHEARTFF said:
I assumed at 1.3 in 2 different 1qb leagues that I would be getting Pitts but ended up with Harris/Chase as he went 2 in both. Kinda surprised and not sure how I feel in retrospect, but it will be interesting to follow the big 3. Feel pretty good about all 3 of their prospects. 
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I don't think you'll regret either of those guys, but positional rarity says if Pitts hits he'll justify his 1.02 selections. 

 
I'm bullish on Pitts in redraft.  I'm not the first to make this observation, but I think Hurst plays a lot and blocks a lot, freeing up Pitts or all the mismatches.

 
Someone tell me why this guy doesn't get a single preseason snap through 2 games. Is he that much of a sure thing and so valuable as to not risk a few live snaps?

 
Fruitbat said:
Someone tell me why this guy doesn't get a single preseason snap through 2 games. Is he that much of a sure thing and so valuable as to not risk a few live snaps?
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Sure seems like the falcons think so. They are pulling an Anquan with him. 

 
I always take notice when healthy rookies doesn't play at all in the preseason. Anquan Boldin was held out of his 1st preseason because the cards saw what they had in practice and didn't want to give any game tape on him. Same thing with McLaurin as a rookie. 

So based on those 2 data points, Pitts is a lock for between 125-216 yards week 1 😁

 
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