TE Sam LaPorta, DET (2 Viewers)

[Drake Hater]

I flexed him with Andrews this week and am in good shape, despite not starting Pickens.

 

[dschuler]

#1 dynasty TE by a decent margin. Only 22 years old and looks to have a decade of fantasy relevance going into next year.

 

[Ilov80s]

I have LaPotra but also Hockenson. Should I trade Hock and roll with Laporta? Which TE would give back more value? Non-ppr league

Sorry I posted this elsewhere with no response. Just wanted LaPorta owners to chime in

Not sure who gets more value. Hock has more name value but LaPorta has the rookie shine so many like. I would definitely try to trade whoever you can get the most for. Right now as crazy as it sounds, I prefer Laporta rest of season.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dan Campbell with high praise for Sam LaPorta (+ update on ARSB) - radio interview

The rise of Sam LaPorta is real. 'And it's only going to get better.'

Playing in the NFL is hard. Outside of quarterback, it doesn't get harder for a rookie than playing tight end. As former Lion T.J. Hockenson once said, "It's kind of crazy to think that we get paid less than a tackle and less than a wide-out when do both." Just how hard is it? The 14 tight ends not named Sam LaPorta taken in this year's draft have averaged 1.1 catches and 8.8 yards per game so far. They've combined for two touchdowns.

Campbell can relate: "Those guys get a lot put on them." A former tight end himself, Campbell didn't catch a single pass as a rookie. It wasn't until his fourth season and his 49th game that he caught his 25th pass. LaPorta has caught that many through five games. It is not supposed to be this easy. It isn't. LaPorta is just making it look that way.

"Especially somebody like Sam, we ask a lot mentally and physically," Campbell said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "And the more he’s able to do, the more we’re going to ask him to do, in both regards. We put an enormous amount on our tight ends. We’ve been doing that to Brock (Wright) going on three years now, but this kid brings a different flavor to us."

When tight ends are taken early in the draft, we often hear the term "matchup nightmare." LaPorta, drafted 34th overall, is actually LaProblem. Choose your, well, flavor: LaPorta is first among NFL tight ends in yards, tied for first in touchdowns and first downs, and fourth in catches. He's first in contested catches and second in yards after catch. He's the third highest-graded tight end per Pro Football Focus, trailing George Kittle and Travis Kelce. Heard of 'em? When Jared Goff throws LaPorta's way, he has a passer rating of 137.8.

"Getting him involved constantly has been great," Goff said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket.

LaPorta earned Goff's trust almost as soon as he showed up. Strong hands and a knack for getting open will have that effect. LaPorta has been the beneficiary of a couple Ben Johnson trick plays, but he's also created yards on his own. Every week, it seems, he joins another exclusive group. He's now the second tight end in NFL history with at least 35 receiving yards in each of his first five games. He's averaging five catches for 57.8 yards per game, and he has more touchdowns (3) than every other rookie tight end combined.

Point is, LaPorta is playing really well, at a really difficult position. He has to know Detroit's complex offense basically as well as Goff, and he has to play the role of basically every player but Goff. The Lions have deployed him inline, in the slot and out wide. His blocking, if not perfect, has been impressive for a rookie, especially in assistance to the run.

On his first touchdown last week, LaPorta was stationed behind the O-line before slipping into the flat and making an easy catch near the pylon. On his second, he lined up on the right shoulder of Penei Sewell, disguised as a blocker again, before flying upfield to catch a double-reverse flea-flicker. And on the Lions' final touchdown, LaPorta lined up on the left shoulder of Taylor Decker and cleared out defensive end Brian Burns to open a path for Craig Reynolds, in the fourth quarter of a game that was already in the bag.

"He just continues to grow every week," said Campbell. "What’s exciting is, I think what you see out of him right now is real. And it’s only going to get better, I really believe that. Every game that comes, every practice that comes and goes, all he does is gain the confidence of this staff and the players around him and he gains the confidence of Goff. He’s becoming one of our guys we can really depend on right now, and that’s a good thing for a rookie."

If LaPorta's rise is really just beginning, Brad Holmes and the Lions have hit another jackpot. They traded Hockenson midway through last season in part because they weren't inclined to pay a mostly one-dimensional tight end the kind of money he would get from the Vikings: four years, $66 million, $16.5 million per year. They turned around and replaced him with a potentially better tight end who will cost $9.5 million total over the next four seasons.

It doesn't necessarily mean the Vikings were wrong for paying Hockenson, a Pro Bowler who leads tight ends in catches this season. But the Lions were right to move on. At 22, LaPorta already looks the equal of Hockenson and he'll save Detroit about $14 million per year. That surplus could help fund an extension for Jonah Jackson, or allow for the acquisition of a high-price player at the trade deadline, or facilitate a free agent signing next offseason. Whatever the case, it gives the Lions options, at no detriment to their roster.

There's nothing sorta about LaPorta, whose talent is real.

 

[Timmay]

I saw on twitter that he wasn't at practice today?

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I saw on twitter that he wasn't at practice today?

I saw the same. No report yet as to why, since he logged a full practice yesterday.

 

[Faust]

Adam Schefter

Lions’ TE Sam LaPorta did not practice today due to a calf injury.

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1712559757117263878?s=21

 

[The General]

Oh Jeez...please don't do this!

 

[Ilov80s]

I don’t love this

 

[Truebluey]

I don’t love this

You and me both mate. He's been the rock of stability for my home league.

 

[Bad_Mo2]

Must have happened in practice yesterday since he logged full participation. Not sure when they label the players as full or limited.

 

[OU#1]

Could be nothing but a slight strain and they rested him. Let’s all cross our fingers and hope for the best. Positive thoughts people!!

 

[BobbyLayne]

Detroit’s only had 21 players miss time from an injury now we’ll have a full squad with 22



*****************

 

[travdogg]

Between Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and now LaPorta, what the hell are the Lions doing during practices? Whatever it is seems more harmful than your run of the mill kneecap biting.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Between Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and now LaPorta, what the hell are the Lions doing during practices? Whatever it is seems more harmful than your run of the mill kneecap biting.

Dan Campbell throws cinder blocks at them from the coaching tower. First 22 to dodge ‘em gets the start.

I think they’re being exceptionally cautious this season. There’s a lot on the line. Division Title run, priority one. But you hear a lot of subtle references along the lines of “it’s a long season, we want to be smart about it” and “we don’t need them peaking in September, we want them playing their best ball in January and maybe even February.”

 

[Grahamburn]

Between Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and now LaPorta, what the hell are the Lions doing during practices? Whatever it is seems more harmful than your run of the mill kneecap biting.

Dan Campbell throws cinder blocks at them from the coaching tower. First 22 to dodge ‘em gets the start.

I think they’re being exceptionally cautious this season. There’s a lot on the line. Division Title run, priority one. But you hear a lot of subtle references along the lines of “it’s a long season, we want to be smart about it” and “we don’t need them peaking in September, we want them playing their best ball in January and maybe even February.”

I agree. The Lions can afford to drop one this week.

TB typically struggles to cover receiving TEs. LaPorta would be able to exploit them. Big loss if he can’t go.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Between Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and now LaPorta, what the hell are the Lions doing during practices? Whatever it is seems more harmful than your run of the mill kneecap biting.

Dan Campbell throws cinder blocks at them from the coaching tower. First 22 to dodge ‘em gets the start.

I think they’re being exceptionally cautious this season. There’s a lot on the line. Division Title run, priority one. But you hear a lot of subtle references along the lines of “it’s a long season, we want to be smart about it” and “we don’t need them peaking in September, we want them playing their best ball in January and maybe even February.”

I agree. The Lions can afford to drop one this week.

TB typically struggles to cover receiving TEs. LaPorta would be able to exploit them. Big loss if he can’t go.

Ain’t yo mommas Lions @Grahambum



Always good to renew the NFC Central rivalry from back in the 30 team league when we had 6 5-team divisions. Barry had some massive games but Bucs always won their share.

 

[Faust]

Sam LaPorta (calf) participated in a walkthrough on Friday.

Lions head coach Dan Campbell said LaPorta’s status is uncertain for Sunday against the Bucs with a calf strain he sustained during Thursday’s practice. LaPorta has become a top-end fantasy tight end option as Detroit’s No. 2 pass catcher this season. LaPorta drafters should have a backup plan headed into the weekend.

 

[Bad_Mo2]

Back at practice today.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Back at practice today.

Back at walkthrough today

No full practice, traveling early tomorrow, & with injuries mounting tryna give the boys some rest

Chance he plays but wouldn’t call it probable if that designation still existed

 

[menobrown]

He is saying he expects to play fwiw.

 

[Dacomish]

This looks promising:

Sam LaPorta said his calf flared up on Wednesday, but he expects to play. It likely stemmed from the game.

-Eric Woodyard | 1:47 pm ET

https://twitter.com/E_Woodyard/status/1712887765010878527

 

[Drake Hater]

Great news. No idea what I'm going to do when they're on bye week. Maybe dart throw Taysom Hill or Parham...

 

[Bad_Mo2]

Back at practice today.

Back at walkthrough today

No full practice, traveling early tomorrow, & with injuries mounting tryna give the boys some rest

Chance he plays but wouldn’t call it probable if that designation still existed

Well, hopefully it wasn't a limpthrough.

 

[Bad_Mo2]

This looks promising:

Sam LaPorta said his calf flared up on Wednesday, but he expects to play. It likely stemmed from the game.

-Eric Woodyard | 1:47 pm ET

https://twitter.com/E_Woodyard/status/1712887765010878527

I don't like the term "flared up" - it insinuates that there was something there previously. That said, the dude seems like he would tough it out and play given the current state of others, like St. Brown, being nicked up. I've never watched the Lions closely, except for when Barry was playing, but does St. Brown get banged up often?

 

[DeaLerZ]

This looks promising:

Sam LaPorta said his calf flared up on Wednesday, but he expects to play. It likely stemmed from the game.

-Eric Woodyard | 1:47 pm ET

https://twitter.com/E_Woodyard/status/1712887765010878527

I don't like the term "flared up" - it insinuates that there was something there previously. That said, the dude seems like he would tough it out and play given the current state of others, like St. Brown, being nicked up. I've never watched the Lions closely, except for when Barry was playing, but does St. Brown get banged up often?

I had him last year and have him this year. One of my favorite players

But I would say based on the sample size yes

 

[Bad_Mo2]

This looks promising:

Sam LaPorta said his calf flared up on Wednesday, but he expects to play. It likely stemmed from the game.

-Eric Woodyard | 1:47 pm ET

https://twitter.com/E_Woodyard/status/1712887765010878527

I don't like the term "flared up" - it insinuates that there was something there previously. That said, the dude seems like he would tough it out and play given the current state of others, like St. Brown, being nicked up. I've never watched the Lions closely, except for when Barry was playing, but does St. Brown get banged up often?

I had him last year and have him this year. One of my favorite players

But I would say based on the sample size yes

His brother (Bears injury report darling) seems to be always hurt and hasn't really done jack squat in the league.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Back at practice today.

Back at walkthrough today

No full practice, traveling early tomorrow, & with injuries mounting tryna give the boys some rest

Chance he plays but wouldn’t call it probable if that designation still existed

Well, hopefully it wasn't a limpthrough.

OK my bad, misinterpreted a tweet. I listened to Campbell’s presser today and the walkthrough was this morning, light non-contact practice this afternoon. LaPorta was an LP for that session but in the locker room afterwards local beats reported he seemed optimistic he would be able to go on Sunday.

When asked if he’s playing this week, he said, “That’s the plan.”

Precisely the verbiage ARSB employed a week ago. Caveat emptor.

I’ll have another late game option available if Sam is inactive.

 

[Bad_Mo2]

I'm going to be screwed if he is inactive. No late game options.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm going to be screwed if he is inactive. No late game options.

I picked up Craig Reynolds in one league and Brock Wright in another in case I have to replace LaPorta.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Trending toward being active but will test things in warmups before the final decision, per ESPN’s Jeff Darlington.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

In per Dan Campbell, according to the bald guy on Fox.

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

I'm feeling iffy here, don't like the language used. Rolling with Pitts, mostly because I can't afford to wait-and-see for gametime (slim pickings on the wire for replacements).

 

[Stat Correction]

Schefty says he's expected to play.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1713570732553191936

 

[Truebluey]

Schefty says he's expected to play.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1713570732553191936

I'm waiting for confirmation after he runs in warm ups.

 

[Snoopy]

Officially active

 

[BobbyLayne]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

 

[LawFitz]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Would you please provide your Cliff's Notes?

 

[Drake Hater]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Nice. Facing the Ravens on the road this week and it's showing Baltimore is the top rated defense against TEs. Looking over that Ravens schedule though and they haven't really faced teams with high TE utilization have they?

 

[BobbyLayne]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Would you please provide your Cliff's Notes?

I mean it’s a play by play film breakdown. It would take me longer to type out the context and nuance covered than it would for you to view it. If you don’t like to watch film, that’s cool, many prefer data driven analysis.

At the end of the video coach says he doesn’t expect Sam to have too many days like this; he should be a fairly consistent 6 catch 8 targets or 7/9 TE bc he does so many things well, the film backing that assessment up is out there. Bucs have a good defense IRL even if they (& Bowles) don’t much credit. It was more about David elevating his game than any mistakes by LaPorta.

 

[BobbyLayne]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Nice. Facing the Ravens on the road this week and it's showing Baltimore is the top rated defense against TEs. Looking over that Ravens schedule though and they haven't really faced teams with high TE utilization have they?

There’s quite a lot of Ravens content on that channel (All 22 Films.) I haven’t consumed all of it but they have been dealing with a lot of guys missing time. Still playing solid D at times, 6th fewest points allowed.

I think with Detroit’s scheme there is one constant: Amon-Ra St Brown. He’s the sun, everyone else orbits around him. LaPorta is the clear #2 but week to week it could be Josh Reynolds or Jamo.

Not crazy about rolling him out this weekend but seeing as I’ll be in Section 102 of M&T Bank Stadium I don’t know how I could sit him lol.

 

[travdogg]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Nice. Facing the Ravens on the road this week and it's showing Baltimore is the top rated defense against TEs. Looking over that Ravens schedule though and they haven't really faced teams with high TE utilization have they?

There’s quite a lot of Ravens content on that channel (All 22 Films.) I haven’t consumed all of it but they have been dealing with a lot of guys missing time. Still playing solid D at times, 6th fewest points allowed.

I think with Detroit’s scheme there is one constant: Amon-Ra St Brown. He’s the sun, everyone else orbits around him. LaPorta is the clear #2 but week to week it could be Josh Reynolds or Jamo.

Not crazy about rolling him out this weekend but seeing as I’ll be in Section 102 of M&T Bank Stadium I don’t know how I could sit him lol.

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

 

[LawFitz]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

There’s a guy on Reddit (r/subvertadown) who has crunched a lot of numbers on the predictive value of POINTS ALLOWED TO XX POSITION versus POINTS SCORED FOR XX POSITION. The quick and dirty tl;dr was:

• Points Allowed is lousy in terms of predictive value, little better than a coin flip for most positions.
• Points For is slightly more predictive.
• WRT Points Allowed by Teams for a position, the best case is for DT/DST - that’s the highest coefficient correlation, e.g., has the best predictive value.
• The worst? By far it’s points allowed to TE.

Here ya go in case you don’t trust my summary

It’s math nerdy & technical, not the most accessible argument. If your eyes glass over just scroll down and look at the pretty color coded charts for the simplified takeaway.

 

[travdogg]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

I remember a few years back seeing a bunch of fantasy sites recommending Mo Alie-Cox as a start because the Ravens were 32nd against TEs through 2 games, whilst completely ignoring that it was because they faced Waller and Kelce the 1st 2 games. Predictably I'm not even sure Mo had a catch.

 

[LawFitz]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

There’s a guy on Reddit (r/subvertadown) who has crunched a lot of numbers on the predictive value of POINTS ALLOWED TO XX POSITION versus POINTS SCORED FOR XX POSITION. The quick and dirty tl;dr was:

• Points Allowed is lousy in terms of predictive value, little better than a coin flip for most positions.
• Points For is slightly more predictive.
• WRT Points Allowed by Teams for a position, the best case is for DT/DST - that’s the highest coefficient correlation, e.g., has the best predictive value.
• The worst? By far it’s points allowed to TE.

Here ya go in case you don’t trust my summary

It’s math nerdy & technical, not the most accessible argument. If your eyes glass over just scroll down and look at the pretty color coded charts for the simplified takeaway.

Great read (for my math/stats brain at least), thank you. I always knew points-against stats were lacking context at best and potentially worthless overall. This analysis supports the latter, but with limitation given his overall sample size restriction.

That said, I do think Pts Against serves a purpose as an initial gateway toward deeper analysis. And while the author didn't seem to explain his methodology for normalizing the data for strength of opponents, that is exactly my issue with this stat. My crude and expedient visual of the opponents that comprised the points against are how I bridge the gap, but obviously that methodology isn't analytically robust.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

There’s a guy on Reddit (r/subvertadown) who has crunched a lot of numbers on the predictive value of POINTS ALLOWED TO XX POSITION versus POINTS SCORED FOR XX POSITION. The quick and dirty tl;dr was:

• Points Allowed is lousy in terms of predictive value, little better than a coin flip for most positions.
• Points For is slightly more predictive.
• WRT Points Allowed by Teams for a position, the best case is for DT/DST - that’s the highest coefficient correlation, e.g., has the best predictive value.
• The worst? By far it’s points allowed to TE.

Here ya go in case you don’t trust my summary

It’s math nerdy & technical, not the most accessible argument. If your eyes glass over just scroll down and look at the pretty color coded charts for the simplified takeaway.

Great read (for my math/stats brain at least), thank you. I always knew points-against stats were lacking context at best and potentially worthless overall. This analysis supports the latter, but with limitation given his overall sample size restriction.

That said, I do think Pts Against serves a purpose as an initial gateway toward deeper analysis. And while the author didn't seem to explain his methodology for normalizing the data for strength of opponents, that is exactly my issue with this stat. My crude and expedient visual of the opponents that comprised the points against are how I bridge the gap, but obviously that methodology isn't analytically robust.

Yeah, and not to get too deep in the weeds, but SOS is such a hard thing to rely upon. Detroit weeks 1-6 last year was nothing like Detroit the last ten weeks or this year. Happens all the time, going either way. Remember the Jets team that started 10-1 and finished 10-6? The team you are in October is often quite different from the team you are in December bc injuries, rookie development, HC/OC change, et al.

 

[Ardbeg4ever]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

There’s a guy on Reddit (r/subvertadown) who has crunched a lot of numbers on the predictive value of POINTS ALLOWED TO XX POSITION versus POINTS SCORED FOR XX POSITION. The quick and dirty tl;dr was:

• Points Allowed is lousy in terms of predictive value, little better than a coin flip for most positions.
• Points For is slightly more predictive.
• WRT Points Allowed by Teams for a position, the best case is for DT/DST - that’s the highest coefficient correlation, e.g., has the best predictive value.
• The worst? By far it’s points allowed to TE.

Here ya go in case you don’t trust my summary

It’s math nerdy & technical, not the most accessible argument. If your eyes glass over just scroll down and look at the pretty color coded charts for the simplified takeaway.

Thanks for posting! This guy does a lot of the same calcs I do. I do look at FPts allowed but also create an adjusted score based on whom they've played, so a Team A may allow 20 pts/gm to opposing QBs but they've played Mahommes, Allen, Hurts and Herbert who avg 24 pts/gm so Team A is -4. While another team also allows 20pts/gm but has played Den/Ari/Cle/Pit so they might be a +3. Nothing is statistically significant to set based just on math because you have to look at trends that factor in injuries, maybe a coach or scheme change etc but I find them pretty valuable when comparing players with 1 tier of each other.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

Thanks. I try to dig into this whenever I see fantasy points against rankings that don't make sense. Almost every time it's because the players that did or didn't score against said D's do make sense. This is especially true earlier in the season with fewer matchups to draw the points-against ranks from.

There’s a guy on Reddit (r/subvertadown) who has crunched a lot of numbers on the predictive value of POINTS ALLOWED TO XX POSITION versus POINTS SCORED FOR XX POSITION. The quick and dirty tl;dr was:

• Points Allowed is lousy in terms of predictive value, little better than a coin flip for most positions.
• Points For is slightly more predictive.
• WRT Points Allowed by Teams for a position, the best case is for DT/DST - that’s the highest coefficient correlation, e.g., has the best predictive value.
• The worst? By far it’s points allowed to TE.

Here ya go in case you don’t trust my summary

It’s math nerdy & technical, not the most accessible argument. If your eyes glass over just scroll down and look at the pretty color coded charts for the simplified takeaway.

Great read (for my math/stats brain at least), thank you. I always knew points-against stats were lacking context at best and potentially worthless overall. This analysis supports the latter, but with limitation given his overall sample size restriction.

That said, I do think Pts Against serves a purpose as an initial gateway toward deeper analysis. And while the author didn't seem to explain his methodology for normalizing the data for strength of opponents, that is exactly my issue with this stat. My crude and expedient visual of the opponents that comprised the points against are how I bridge the gap, but obviously that methodology isn't analytically robust.

Yeah, and not to get too deep in the weeds, but SOS is such a hard thing to rely upon. Detroit weeks 1-6 last year was nothing like Detroit the last ten weeks or this year. Happens all the time, going either way. Remember the Jets team that started 10-1 and finished 10-6? The team you are in October is often quite different from the team you are in December bc injuries, rookie development, HC/OC change, et al.

I did a SOS analysis years ago and posted it in the Shark Pool (might have been under a different user name - unnecessary tangent). The takeaway I recall is that prior year SOS is borderline irrelevant as a predictor of next year fantasy points given up, with the exception that bottom-5 defenses are on average still bad (give up worse than avg fantasy points) the subsequent year.

That said, this was 15-ish years ago. I did the analysis while working 80 hours a week, and thus would probably have done the work differently today. For example, I didn’t split the analysis by QB vs RB vs WR vs TE. It was simply rushing vs passing fantasy points allowed…..

 

[Smack Tripper]

4-36 on 11 targets Week 6

What happened? 22 year old rookie had a battle with a 33 year old 12-year vet.

All 22 Films: Sam LaPorta v Lavonte David | Week 6 film study

Wiley vet with a career that has seen him named to multiple Pro Bowls, 1st team All Pro in his 2nd year, 12 INT, 27 FF, 18 FR. TBH I’m not sure why David only has 2 Pro Bowls, from his stats and PFF Grades - consistently in the 80s, peak low 90s - seems like he should have been named 6-7 seasons.

Anyway, really good content if you enjoy detailed explanations from a defensive coordinator’s perspective.

Nice. Facing the Ravens on the road this week and it's showing Baltimore is the top rated defense against TEs. Looking over that Ravens schedule though and they haven't really faced teams with high TE utilization have they?

There’s quite a lot of Ravens content on that channel (All 22 Films.) I haven’t consumed all of it but they have been dealing with a lot of guys missing time. Still playing solid D at times, 6th fewest points allowed.

I think with Detroit’s scheme there is one constant: Amon-Ra St Brown. He’s the sun, everyone else orbits around him. LaPorta is the clear #2 but week to week it could be Josh Reynolds or Jamo.

Not crazy about rolling him out this weekend but seeing as I’ll be in Section 102 of M&T Bank Stadium I don’t know how I could sit him lol.

The best TE the Ravens have faced so far is David Njoku in a game where the QB was DTR, so I'd probably give the Ravens defense against TEs an incomplete.

I think the ravens have faced a few muddy QB situations!