MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
I guarantee he will. You think the Texans want to roll with a guy that doesn't even care about football anymore? Nope.jsharlan said:
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Texans RB situation and implications (real-world and fantasy) (1 Viewer)
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Cheesedawg
Footballguy
Dennis Johnson was regarded as the best 3rd down back in college football last year with good reviews of his pass pro, hands, and running ability at Arkansas. He eventually beat out Knile Davis as the starter late in the season. He fumbled a lot in college and in the preseason so he got cut, but OC Dennison says he has improved in that area.
Is this guy worth stashing? Who knows about Foster's status the rest of the season and Tate is trying to play through 4 broken ribs. Johnson is pretty close to having the reins of the coveted Texans' RB job. His stats were good from last game although I did not personally see him play. Any thoughts on Johnson?
From the Hou Chronicle a couple of days ago:
Johnson, an undrafted free agent, was fumble-prone during the preseason and wound up being cut when the Texans decided to keep another free-agent rookie, Cierre Wood, instead. But Wood got caught for violating team rules on the Kansas City trip and Johnson, the all-time leading kickoff returner in the SEC as an Arkansas Razorback, was re-signed.
“He’s a tough kid and he’ll do everything that we need him to do,” offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said of Johnson. Dennison also complimented Johnson having improved his “ball protection” skills.
Assuming Foster can’t go, Johnson will be Tate’s backup against Arizona with either Deji Karim or Ray Graham being activated for the game as well.
Is this guy worth stashing? Who knows about Foster's status the rest of the season and Tate is trying to play through 4 broken ribs. Johnson is pretty close to having the reins of the coveted Texans' RB job. His stats were good from last game although I did not personally see him play. Any thoughts on Johnson?
From the Hou Chronicle a couple of days ago:
Johnson, an undrafted free agent, was fumble-prone during the preseason and wound up being cut when the Texans decided to keep another free-agent rookie, Cierre Wood, instead. But Wood got caught for violating team rules on the Kansas City trip and Johnson, the all-time leading kickoff returner in the SEC as an Arkansas Razorback, was re-signed.
“He’s a tough kid and he’ll do everything that we need him to do,” offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said of Johnson. Dennison also complimented Johnson having improved his “ball protection” skills.
Assuming Foster can’t go, Johnson will be Tate’s backup against Arizona with either Deji Karim or Ray Graham being activated for the game as well.
jsharlan
Footballguy
Your guarantee is hollow and based on no factual evidence at all. Nevertheless we'll see who is here in the offseason to eat crow.
jsharlan
Footballguy
jsharlan
Footballguy
I dunno if the Texans RB position is as coveted this year as years past. That being said Johnson could have some value in redraft if Tate gets hurt enough that he can't carry a full load. I am of the opinion that Johnson holds no dynasty value, and the Texans will draft another RB next year.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I'm not going to guarantee it, but I think the chances of Tate returning to Hou is better than most are thinking. Foster is wearing down faster than the team thought he would IMO and with all the injuries Tate sustains plus the fact teams are devauling FA RBs he not going to get a big payday. He may not get tagged but I believe Hou isn't going to let him leave without a decent offer on the table.
jsharlan
Footballguy
They would have 7.5mil in dead money if they cut Foster after this season. They can't afford to pay Tate much considering they have to think about a huge extension for Watt. Foster might have had the back and nagging hamstring this year, but when he was on the field he was still dynamic. That isn't a sign that he is breaking down. I don't see Tate staying with Foster still here either. I don't think he wants to play second fiddle anymore.
cstu
Footballguy
Besides the money, which is a huge part of it, I don't think people realize how much RB's want to be 'the guy'. They've been 'the guy' their entire athletic career and I imagine they hate have to split carries if they know they have starter talent.
Jonathan Stewart is the only starter type guy I can remember who decided to stay where he knew he'd be in a RBBC and I don't think the Texans will give Tate a contract like that anyway.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reports Arian Foster may need surgery to correct his back problems.
Foster is in the process of consulting "two or three specialists" to determine his best course of action. The Texans' season is lost at 2-6, so it isn't like they'll be pushing hard for Foster to return this year. McClain notes that the potential surgery would end Foster's season. Banged-up Ben Tate projects as Houston's starting tailback moving forward. Dennis Johnson is No. 2.
Like I said, I don't see Tate getting a payday from another team; I see him getting a bunch of lowball offers and at the end of the day he'll prob re-sign back w/ HOU for a couple of mil yearly.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I agree, but Tate hasn't shown he can be the guy. Even in his backup role he gets hurt every year. This will be Bradshaw-ish IMO.
jsharlan
Footballguy
This quoted part from McClain(who is speculating) is irrelevant to next season. Unless they plan to cut Foster and take on a large amount of dead money, I don't think Tate will want to stay. Honestly I'm not sure they can even afford to pay Tate a few mil a year. Backup RB is not a position they need to be spending money on.
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reports Arian Foster may need surgery to correct his back problems.
Foster is in the process of consulting "two or three specialists" to determine his best course of action. The Texans' season is lost at 2-6, so it isn't like they'll be pushing hard for Foster to return this year. McClain notes that the potential surgery would end Foster's season. Banged-up Ben Tate projects as Houston's starting tailback moving forward. Dennis Johnson is No. 2.
Like I said, I don't see Tate getting a payday from another team; I see him getting a bunch of lowball offers and at the end of the day he'll prob re-sign back w/ HOU for a couple of mil yearly.
jsharlan
Footballguy
So the guy with 4 broken ribs and who slid down before the 1st down marker so he wouldn't take a hit has been healthy and looked good? He looked real good early in the year, he's playing through alot of pain right now and its effecting his running.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Hard for me to compare Bush and Tate, Reggie was and still has some of that special talent left which keeps him in the league; Tate isn't a special talent. Even still, Bush has almost always used as a RBBC.
Tate's been able to play all year so far but the ribs thing... I swear everytime he gets a chance there just something that happens.
cstu
Footballguy
Can't blame the guy for trying to avoid hard hits when he has broken ribs. He's looked as good as I expect a guy with 4 broken ribs to look and prior to the injury he was averaging 6 YPC.
cstu
Footballguy
Fair enough and you may be right. Maybe teams won't want to spend the money given what they've seen Morris and Stacy do as late round picks.
GregR
Footballguy
Not that I expect Foster to be cut after the season... but in regards to cap ramifications of cutting him, if I have this all right...
2014
Keep Foster in 2014, he counts as $8.75m against the cap.
Release Foster (normally) before 2014, he counts as $7.5m in dead money. So the team could release him and sign someone for $1.25m to replace him and in a cap sense at least they would break even. Justin Forsett got $1m/year average last year, so this would basically be replacing Foster with Forsett for the same cap amount. (Edit: Or spend a pick for someone but that of course adds the cost of the draft pick.)
Release Foster as a post-June 1 designation release before 2014. He would count as $2.5m against the cap in 2014 and $5m against the cap in 2015. So the team would gain $6.25m of spending money in 2014, but would be $5m behind in 2015. This could be used to re-sign Tate, but I personally would not want to see the 2015 cap hit from it.
2015
If Foster plays in 2015 he counts as $9m against the cap.
Regular release before 2015 would be a $5m cap hit, so the team would save $4m in cap room that year.
Post-June 1st designated release would cost $2.5m in 2015 dead money (but a $6.5m savings), and $2.5m in 2016 dead money.
I think Foster will be with the team in 2014. I think in 2015 he'll either restructure or be released unless he had a league-leading season in 2014. It is also not a given that Gary Kubiak or someone running the Texans style of offense will be coaching the team in 2014. Foster fits well with the one-cut and downhill style, he wouldn't fit as well in some other systems so that is a consideration. Though I imagine a new coach would probably keep him in 2014 anyway.
2014
Keep Foster in 2014, he counts as $8.75m against the cap.
Release Foster (normally) before 2014, he counts as $7.5m in dead money. So the team could release him and sign someone for $1.25m to replace him and in a cap sense at least they would break even. Justin Forsett got $1m/year average last year, so this would basically be replacing Foster with Forsett for the same cap amount. (Edit: Or spend a pick for someone but that of course adds the cost of the draft pick.)
Release Foster as a post-June 1 designation release before 2014. He would count as $2.5m against the cap in 2014 and $5m against the cap in 2015. So the team would gain $6.25m of spending money in 2014, but would be $5m behind in 2015. This could be used to re-sign Tate, but I personally would not want to see the 2015 cap hit from it.
2015
If Foster plays in 2015 he counts as $9m against the cap.
Regular release before 2015 would be a $5m cap hit, so the team would save $4m in cap room that year.
Post-June 1st designated release would cost $2.5m in 2015 dead money (but a $6.5m savings), and $2.5m in 2016 dead money.
I think Foster will be with the team in 2014. I think in 2015 he'll either restructure or be released unless he had a league-leading season in 2014. It is also not a given that Gary Kubiak or someone running the Texans style of offense will be coaching the team in 2014. Foster fits well with the one-cut and downhill style, he wouldn't fit as well in some other systems so that is a consideration. Though I imagine a new coach would probably keep him in 2014 anyway.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah, it's not like Kubiak feels obligated to get Johnson touches like he did (or at least pretended to) with Tate since week 1.
Anyway, Tate is going to essentially be a full month reserved from cracking his rubs this Sunday. Everything I've read points towards that being the average recovery period. Based on volume alone, Tate is going to be a no-brainer RB2 moving forward (the expert consensus pegs him as a low-end RB1 this week).
For those that "gambled" on Tate assuming Foster wouldn't hold up, you've been rewarded.
packersfan
Footballguy
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves too quickly. I'm guessing there were a lot of Mike James owners who were feeling pretty giddy when Martin landed on IR last week. We saw how all that worked out and James was healthy. I like Tate and I agree he has low-end RB1 upside now. But he's gotta stay healthy and that's something he's struggled to do and it's an even bigger deal given how he's already hurt.
