The countup to 3000 hits (1 Viewer)

[Colin Dowling]

I'm not a big fan of Raffy's case for the Hall, but 600/3000 is not going to be denied.  I don't like that he has basically been a better then average part-time player for a long time.  But then again, thats part of baseball, so it qualifies.

COlin

Just "better than average"?I realize he's no Willie Mays, but 8 straight years with 38 or more HR's. That has to be a record.

My point is that he was never a dominant player, but rather a very good offensive player for a long period of time. I don't think he's ever been a big top-5 finisher in major stat categories for example. Thats kind of what i was drawing on.Colin

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

I'm not a big fan of Raffy's case for the Hall, but 600/3000 is not going to be denied.  I don't like that he has basically been a better then average part-time player for a long time.  But then again, thats part of baseball, so it qualifies.

COlin

Just "better than average"?I realize he's no Willie Mays, but 8 straight years with 38 or more HR's. That has to be a record.

But at no time has anyone discussed the top 5 players in the game(during his career) and included Raffy as one of them.. He is going to get in based on his longetivity and consistency. NTTIAWWT

 

[Righetti]

tough day for Jeter..0 for 5 including making the last out when he struck out..1818

 

[shadyridr]

Lots of incorrect statements in this thread. Palmiero played 1B his entire career until the last 2 or 3 years where he's been DH. I'd hardly say he was a part-time player or a full-time DH. Plus he's won a few Gold Gloves.

 

[Bobcat10]

I love the fact that you are jinxing Jeter by this pre-mature countdown.

 

[Righetti]

2 for 5 last night... 1820but these Yankees are terrible to watch...the Jeter error hurt too

 

[Righetti]

3 for 4 against the Mets.. including the Homerun to lead off the first...1823

 

[Otis]

Let's go Mets go.Down with Derek Jeter.Down with my ex girlfriend Keriann who loves Derek Jeter.:jinx:

 

[Righetti]

1 for 5 on saturday1824

 

[Righetti]

1 for 3 in the thrilling win last night1825

 

[Righetti]

0 for 4 still at 1825did have a bases loaded walk on a 3-2 count that drove in a run

 

[Tau837]

IMO - Jeter will not get 3000 hits.

Players who I think have a shot (other than the obvious Palmeiro):

Pujols - 787 after 4 seasons (24 years old)

A-Rod - 1707 after 11 seasons (28 years old)

Juan Pierre - 859 after 5 seasons (26 years old)

However, its really still to early to tell with these guys.  You have to play a LONG time to reach 3000.

I'm curious as to why you don't believe he will get to 3,000 hits. He will only be 31 in a few days and should easily finish with over 1,900 hits this year.His 162 game average throughout his career is 206 hits. Barring injury, that will get him to 3,000 before his 37th birthday. If Jeter is not spectacular, he is extremely consistent. If he cuts down on the strikeouts and stays healthy into his early 40's, he could actually attain 4,000 hits. I'm not saying it will happen, but it certainly could.

Jeter has played 10 years, 8 of them 'full' seasons. In the 8 seasons he played he avg'd 196 hits. If he maintained that avg for the next 4 years (including this season) that would put him at 2518 at age 34 (35 in June).Omar Vizquel is the only shortstop that I can think of that is still a starter at that age (he's 37), and that is because he's one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball history.

Jeter IMO is an above avg fielding shortstop right now, but that's it. 4 years from now will he still be able to cut it at short? A-Rod will be 32 - going on 33 at that point so I think its unlikely he's moved on or vacated the 3B position. So that's one issue.

The second issue is that we've assumed he'll maintain that 196 hit average. At this point he doesn't seem to be slowing down, but he will eventually, its just a matter of when.

Another negative is he doesn't have a ton of power. A lot of the 3000 club are able to maintain their careers because even if the batting avg suffers, they still have some pop. This won't be the case for Jeter, he'll need to continue to stay a .300 hitter throughout his career. (which, in retrospect, severely damages Juan Pierre's chances)

Finally, so at 34 going on 35 he still needs 482 hits. Which means he'd have to at least play 3 full seasons or play part time in several more seasons. Which means he'd have to be a full time player until age 38 or a part-timer into his 40s. Jeter is already a very rich man, do you think he'll still want to be playing at that age?

Its just my opinion, but I'd be surprised if he makes it. Of course its certainly not out of the question, but personally I'd give him a 10% chance.

 

[Tau837]

Jeter IMO is an above avg fielding shortstop right now, but that's it.

This is actually not true. Jeter has been one of the worst fielding shortstops in MLB for the past several years. His glamour rep has obscured how truly poor he is at SS.

 

[Tau837]

Its just my opinion, but I'd be surprised if he makes it.  Of course its certainly not out of the question, but personally I'd give him a 10% chance.

Have to admit, this made me laugh and nothing more. 10% is folly at best.

Another negative is he doesn't have a ton of power.  A lot of the 3000 club are able to maintain their careers because even if the batting avg suffers, they still have some pop.  This won't be the case for Jeter, he'll need to continue to stay a .300 hitter throughout his career.  (which, in retrospect, severely damages Juan Pierre's chances)

To further poke holes in your theory, a lot of the 3000 hit club had power? Interesting...Pete Rose

Ty Cobb

Tris Speaker

Cap Anson

Honus Wagner

Paul Molitor

Eddie Collins

I only listed seven players of the top 10 on the all-time most hits list as the other three (Musial, Aaron and Yastrzemski) had power. Did these guys have a lot of power? Among all seven combined, there were TWO 20 homer seasons.

Cobb was top 10 in slugging 16 of 24 season, #1 eight different times.

Speaker was top 10 in 16 of his 22 seasons.

Honus Wagner - 15 of 21 seasons, 6 times in first.

Eddie Collins - 9 top tens. Cap Anson - 12.

Molitor and Rose are the only exceptions from the list you've given and they both played a very long time. Do you see Jeter finishing his career as a DH or at 1B?

Jeter has zero top ten finishes in SLG%.

I still give Jeter a 10% chance.

 

[Tau837]

Quotes of mine from almost exactly one year ago:

He's actually 5th in range factor and 7th in defensive efficiency among all ML SS's this year. His defense last year was subpar due to his dislocated shoulder.

Jeter's defense wasn't just poor last season... it has been poor for his entire career. From baseball-reference.com:Year Ag Tm Lg Pos G PO A E DP FP lgFP RnF lgRnF GS Inn +--------------+---+----+------+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+------+ 1995 21 NYY AL SS 15 17 34 2 7 .962 .974 3.40 4.16 1996 22 NYY AL SS 157 244 444 22 83 .969 .971 4.38 4.19 1997 23 NYY AL SS 159 244 457 18 87 .975 .974 4.41 4.05 1998 24 NYY AL SS 148 223 393 9 82 .986 .972 4.16 4.26 1999 25 NYY AL SS 158 230 391 14 87 .978 .970 3.93 4.19 2000 26 NYY AL SS* 148 236 349 24 77 .961 .973 4.12 4.71 148 1278.7 2001 27 NYY AL SS* 150 211 344 15 68 .974 .973 3.81 4.49 150 1312.3 2002 28 NYY AL SS* 156 219 367 14 69 .977 .975 3.81 4.56 156 1383.3 DH 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 2003 29 NYY AL SS* 118 160 271 14 51 .969 .971 3.75 4.54 118 1033.7+--------------+---+----+------+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+------+ Position Total SS 1209 1784 3050 132 611 .973 .972 4.00 4.36 DH 1 Games not counted in Overall Total below +--------------+---+----+------+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+------+ Overall Total 1209 1784 3050 132 611 .973 .972 4.00 4.36His career range factor is miserable. Or, as Rob Neyer put it in 2001, execrable: Assessing Jeter's defense

And Jeter's Range Factor is, in a word, execrable. It's execrable every year. Here's where he ranked, in each of the last five seasons, among major league shortstops who started at least 100 games:1996 20 of 241997 16 of 241998 23 of 251999 21 of 212000 23 of 23Those numbers, elegant in their simple consistency, speak for themselves.But of course, Range Factor is subject to all sorts of outside influences. Heinous things like pitching staffs and infield surfaces and gosh knows what else. There's a way to account for those outside influences, though. We can compare Jeter to the other Yankees who played shortstop in the same seasons that he did. Unfortunately for the purposes of this little argument, Jeter has been exceptionally durable, but the table below lists Jeter's Range Factor, along with the composite Range Factor of the other Yankee shortstops of the last five seasons. Jeter "Others"Innings 6767 461Range 4.27 4.32Now, this certainly isn't conclusive. But if Jeter were truly a superior defensive shortstop, wouldn't you expect him to make more plays per nine innings, rather than slightly fewer?...Is Jeter the worst defensive shortstop in the major leagues? Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. There is some evidence to suggest that he is, but I'm sure there's evidence to suggest that he isn't, too. My point is that there's no evidence to suggest that he's an outstanding defensive shortstop, or even a good one.

For more evidence, see this article: Catching the Damn BallIn this article, written in 2000, a combination of defensive rating methods was used to assess all Major League shortstops. Jeter ranked dead last.

He costs the Yankees perhaps 20-30 runs a year with his glove, but makes that back easily with his bat. Defensively, Derek Jeter is positively horrible. He takes forever to release the ball, has no range, his footwork was best described by Joel Grey in Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins and he will join the ranks of the defensively horrific who win Gold Gloves because of their charisma, the occasional highlight reel play, exposure and their offensive production.

The fact that they chose to put ARod at third instead of him was certainly not based on defensive merit.

Oh yeah, and he is indeed overrated offensively. He ranks in the top 100 all time in exactly one category, batting average, in which he is #60. Among active players, he is 5th in career batting average and 19th in on base percentage, but he doesn't rank in the top 30 in any other category... not runs, not hits, nothing else.How does he compare to his peers? He has made 5 All Star teams in 9 seasons (and might not have made that many if not for the NY hype). He has won 0 MVPs and finished in the top 5 in MVP voting exactly once.Sure, he is an above average offensive player, a borderline All Star. But in truth, most of his offensive edge is negated by his poor defense.He is made out to be an elite postseason hitter. In fact, he has simply duplicated his career numbers in the postseason:Career regular season BA/OBP/SLG: .317/.389/.462Career postseason BA/OBP/SLG: .314/.385/.469On the grandest stage, the World Series, he has regressed a bit from his regular season numbers: .302/.375/.434Is he on track for the HOF? Well, the hype will certainly give him a boost in the voting process. But he is a long way from making it on merit. For example, consider these assessments from baseball-reference.com (go there for definitions):

Black Ink: Batting - 6 (316) (Average HOFer ~ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 70 (336) (Average HOFer ~ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 41.9 (123) (Average HOFer ~ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 129.0 (95) (Likely HOFer > 100) Overall Rank in parentheses.

These ratings do not factor in his poor defense, yet he makes it in only one category, HOF Monitor. And in that category, he is only tied for 27th among active and recently retired players who aren't yet eligible for the HOF. Guess what? All 27 of them aren't going to make it.And please hold the "he has won 4 World Series" talk. Sure, it is a small plus for him, but he is one of 25 guys on each of those teams. He was instrumental, but he was far from the reason for any of those championships. The Yankee pitching staff as a whole, and particularly their bullpen, along with plenty of other hitters in the most expensive lineup in baseball were collectively more important. Not to mention Joe Torre. More than likely, there have been several ML shortstops who could have performed well enough on that team to win the same number of championships. Those other guys just didn't play for teams funded by George Steinbrenner.

 

[Zigg]

Its just my opinion, but I'd be surprised if he makes it. Of course its certainly not out of the question, but personally I'd give him a 10% chance.

Have to admit, this made me laugh and nothing more. 10% is folly at best.

Another negative is he doesn't have a ton of power. A lot of the 3000 club are able to maintain their careers because even if the batting avg suffers, they still have some pop. This won't be the case for Jeter, he'll need to continue to stay a .300 hitter throughout his career. (which, in retrospect, severely damages Juan Pierre's chances)

To further poke holes in your theory, a lot of the 3000 hit club had power? Interesting...Pete Rose

Ty Cobb

Tris Speaker

Cap Anson

Honus Wagner

Paul Molitor

Eddie Collins

I only listed seven players of the top 10 on the all-time most hits list as the other three (Musial, Aaron and Yastrzemski) had power. Did these guys have a lot of power? Among all seven combined, there were TWO 20 homer seasons.

Cobb was top 10 in slugging 16 of 24 season, #1 eight different times.

Speaker was top 10 in 16 of his 22 seasons.

Honus Wagner - 15 of 21 seasons, 6 times in first.

Eddie Collins - 9 top tens. Cap Anson - 12.

Molitor and Rose are the only exceptions from the list you've given and they both played a very long time. Do you see Jeter finishing his career as a DH or at 1B?

Jeter has zero top ten finishes in SLG%.

I still give Jeter a 10% chance.

Cobb, Speaker, Wagner and Collins all played before HRs were a big part of the game, explaing the high ranking SLG% despite the lack of HRs. This is obviously not the case with Jeter.

 

[Da Guru]

Jeter does not seem to be the same player he was a couple of years ago!

 

[Righetti]

1 for 5 total hits: 1826bad game for Jeet though, struck out in the ninth

 

[Righetti]

rain out on wednesday night

 

[Righetti]

1 for 4 tonight in the loss to the WhiteSox. Randy Johnson another bad performance against the American League..1827 for the career

 

[Righetti]

1 for 4 on Saturday but he had 2 K's in the Yanks 8-4 win against the WhiteSox.1828

 

[shuke]

Wow, he sucks.

 

[Righetti]

1 for 4 today during Wang's randy johnson type performance1829

 

[Righetti]

2 for 5 today with 3 runs scored.1831

 

[Righetti]

3 for 5 in the romp where RJ pitched like RJ for a change1834

 

[urbanhack]

Only 1166 to go!!!!

 

[TenTimes]

we're really going to keep running the count for what.. the next 7 years?

 

[Lefty27]

3 for 5 in the romp where RJ pitched like RJ for a change

1834

Keep updating the Jeter watch, not because I am rooting for Jeter to get 3,000, but because I am infatuated with your avatar.

 

[Righetti]

1 for 4 in the 7-2 victory against the tribethe 1 was his 11th homerun1835

 

[Righetti]

2 for 3 including the double. another win for Wang1837

 

[TenTimes]

2 for 3 including the double.

the double?

 

[Mr. Pickles]

this is actually worse than the portis madden thread.. if that's possible.make your time..

 

[Righetti]

1 for 5 on Saturday during the 9-8 loss to the tribe1838

 

[Righetti]

1 for 4 today during the 9-4 Yankee win..going into the all-star gameat 1839

 

[Righetti]

2 for 5 coming out of the All Star game against the Sox....1841

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

1900 is coming up pretty quickly

 

[Righetti]

0-4 in the 17-1 game stays at 1841

 

[Righetti]

1-5 in the Randy win over the Sox on Saturday1842

 

[Righetti]

0 for 4 in the Al Leiter game on Sunday1842

 

[Righetti]

1 for 6 in the 11-10 win over Texas which brought the Yanks into first place.Jeter struggling at the plate right now..1843

 

[Otis]

I love how Righetti is away in Antwerp and still finds the time to update this very important thread.That's FFA dedication.

 

[Righetti]

0-3 in the loss to the Rangers last night1843

 

[Mr. Pickles]

please stop. seriously.

 

[urbanhack]

18 more for Raffy and make his lock for the Hall of Fame (first ballot) even more of a lock than it already is...

It's sad when a DH gets in the Hall. Part time players don't deserve it. Especially on the first ballot.

Yea, I guess there should be NO pitchers in the hall since they only play about 10% of everyone else. Plus there hitting stats are way below hall standards. Not to mention AL pitchers don't even go to the plate.

That's not my point, but to further expand yours, there will be less and less primarily starting pitchers going to the Hall in the future. Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, and RJ are first ballot, no question. Is there another sure-fire HOF'er out there after that?
[/QUOTE]Possibly John Smoltz... 170 wins, 154 saves, 3.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIPComparison to Eck (who pitched relief a lot longer)... 197 wins, 390 saves, 3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

[/QUOTE]Possibly. I feel if he stayed as a closer, he would easily have surpassed 300 save and with his career as a starter, it woould most certainly have been enough to get him there.Rivera is a definite First Ballot but he is not a starter. I think closers will become more prevelant in HOF voting in the next 20 years and there will be more closers getting in than starters.

[/QUOTE]Are you actually trying to trademark "first ballot"?
[/QUOTE]

 

[Righetti]

1 for 5 in last nights 8-4 victory over the Rangers1844

 

[shuke]

18 more for Raffy and make his lock for the Hall of Fame (first ballot) even more of a lock than it already is...

It's sad when a DH gets in the Hall. Part time players don't deserve it. Especially on the first ballot.

Yea, I guess there should be NO pitchers in the hall since they only play about 10% of everyone else. Plus there hitting stats are way below hall standards. Not to mention AL pitchers don't even go to the plate.

That's not my point, but to further expand yours, there will be less and less primarily starting pitchers going to the Hall in the future. Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, and RJ are first ballot, no question. Is there another sure-fire HOF'er out there after that?

Possibly John Smoltz... 170 wins, 154 saves, 3.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIPComparison to Eck (who pitched relief a lot longer)... 197 wins, 390 saves, 3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

[/QUOTE]Possibly. I feel if he stayed as a closer, he would easily have surpassed 300 save and with his career as a starter, it woould most certainly have been enough to get him there.Rivera is a definite First Ballot but he is not a starter. I think closers will become more prevelant in HOF voting in the next 20 years and there will be more closers getting in than starters.

[/QUOTE]Are you actually trying to trademark "first ballot"?
[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]

 

[Righetti]

1 for 3 in the devastating loss last night against the Angels1845

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

18 more for Raffy and make his lock for the Hall of Fame (first ballot) even more of a lock than it already is...

It's sad when a DH gets in the Hall. Part time players don't deserve it. Especially on the first ballot.

Yea, I guess there should be NO pitchers in the hall since they only play about 10% of everyone else. Plus there hitting stats are way below hall standards. Not to mention AL pitchers don't even go to the plate.

That's not my point, but to further expand yours, there will be less and less primarily starting pitchers going to the Hall in the future. Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, and RJ are first ballot, no question. Is there another sure-fire HOF'er out there after that?

Possibly John Smoltz... 170 wins, 154 saves, 3.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIPComparison to Eck (who pitched relief a lot longer)... 197 wins, 390 saves, 3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Possibly. I feel if he stayed as a closer, he would easily have surpassed 300 save and with his career as a starter, it woould most certainly have been enough to get him there.Rivera is a definite First Ballot but he is not a starter. I think closers will become more prevelant in HOF voting in the next 20 years and there will be more closers getting in than starters.

[/QUOTE]Are you actually trying to trademark "first ballot"?
[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]

 

[Righetti]

0 for 4 in Friday's 6-3 loss against the Angels1845

 

[Righetti]

4 for 4 agains the Angles in another loss by the Yanks...including his 12th HR of the season..1849