What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

The Hundred-Dollar Gas Fill-Up And The Demise Of The Democrats In 2022 (3 Viewers)

Thanks for the detailed response, Shula. That said, if this is an industry relying on 20+ year time periods for ROI then I would expect these sorts of conversations to have happened years ago. Now is too late. If our demand was expected to increase then they should have used all these gov't subsidies to support it. Instead we are currently operating at late 2018/early 2019 levels and...are still being bent over. That's a failure on big oil and confirms the push to cut supply early 2020 was just plain stupid. 

Is this administration exacerbating the problem? Absolutely. #### 'em. But they're not the only ones. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Thanks for the detailed response, Shula. That said, if this is an industry relying on 20+ year time periods for ROI then I would expect these sorts of conversations to have happened years ago. Now is too late. If our demand was expected to increase then they should have used all these gov't subsidies to support it. Instead we are currently operating at late 2018/early 2019 levels and...are still being bent over. That's a failure on big oil and confirms the push to cut supply early 2020 was just plain stupid. 

Is this administration exacerbating the problem? Absolutely. #### 'em. But they're not the only ones. 
Click to expand...
That's the problem with most mining companies, the startup costs are usually pretty substantial.  When I ran models, they had me do it for 30 years.  To milk every last bit out of it, if we could project returns for 30 years, we did it.  The fact they model that way shows you how razor thin some of the margins are on these decisions.  When you discount future cash flows, year 30 doesn't give you tons of incremental value.

You're right now is too late.  That's what I mean when I'm critical of the Biden Administration's reactions to this situation but I also say anything they did would take time.  I don't want to get too far into the weeds on this but from my understanding we need more refining capacity as well as raw production.  However, I still contend extracting crude domestically is not only financially beneficial, but from my understanding is less harmful to the environment than what occurs in other places.  

I wouldn't be too critical of the oil companies for their production planning.  To be critical of them would be to have expected them to forsee Russian oil being removed from the world market. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Shula-holic said:
That's the problem with most mining companies, the startup costs are usually pretty substantial.  When I ran models, they had me do it for 30 years.  To milk every last bit out of it, if we could project returns for 30 years, we did it.  The fact they model that way shows you how razor thin some of the margins are on these decisions.  When you discount future cash flows, year 30 doesn't give you tons of incremental value.

You're right now is too late.  That's what I mean when I'm critical of the Biden Administration's reactions to this situation but I also say anything they did would take time.  I don't want to get too far into the weeds on this but from my understanding we need more refining capacity as well as raw production.  However, I still contend extracting crude domestically is not only financially beneficial, but from my understanding is less harmful to the environment than what occurs in other places.  

I wouldn't be too critical of the oil companies for their production planning.  To be critical of them would be to have expected them to forsee Russian oil being removed from the world market. 
Click to expand...
I think it's fair to be critical of all parties. Contingency planning is paramount in any industry. When it fails emergency response takes over. This admin is failing at the latter because industry and prior admin failed at the former, but despite all that industry is taking our money anyway. All this is just confirming to me that we need to invest our resources in alternative energy. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I think it's fair to be critical of all parties. Contingency planning is paramount in any industry. When it fails emergency response takes over. This admin is failing at the latter because industry and prior admin failed at the former, but despite all that industry is taking our money anyway. All this is just confirming to me that we need to invest our resources in alternative energy. 
Click to expand...
We will just have to agree to disagree.  I don't think in that industry I'd have been planning for some big production spike for 2022 at any point along the way.  I don't know how they could have forecasted that.  I am not as familiar with oil and gas capital projects as I am other mining, but I'd suspect you're talking 8 figures for some of these projects.  These aren't amounts you'd spend as a contingency.  

 
Shula-holic said:
We will just have to agree to disagree.  I don't think in that industry I'd have been planning for some big production spike for 2022 at any point along the way.  I don't know how they could have forecasted that.  I am not as familiar with oil and gas capital projects as I am other mining, but I'd suspect you're talking 8 figures for some of these projects.  These aren't amounts you'd spend as a contingency.  
Click to expand...
Then we need to invest in energy with more flexibile contingency capacity. If big oil can't figure it out and profits for miscalculating then allocate our subsidies to an industry that can. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Then we need to invest in energy with more flexibile contingency capacity. If big oil can't figure it out and profits for miscalculating then allocate our subsidies to an industry that can. 
Click to expand...
I'm all for investing in green technologies.  We have to get them to where they can operate at scale and sustain us.  We aren't there today and that's why we have to plan for at least an intermediate term of needing fossil fuels.  We're on the same page there.

However, I don't understand how they miscalculated.  Commodity industries are always subject to the winds of the markets and global events.  If anyone could predict those, they would just trade futures all day.  Neither of us would be here, we could be preparing to make a trade tomorrow that our kids would never have to work again. 

What they need to do is try to build and/or maintain infrastructure where they can try and be a viable business in both low and higher price environments.  If we expect them to produce more but cap their profits during peak pricing but expect them to eat the losses or low margins when prices are low, such as during the pandemic and the Saudi/Russia price war, they'll never survive.  It's not a realistic ask of them.

 
Shula-holic said:
I'm all for investing in green technologies.  We have to get them to where they can operate at scale and sustain us.  We aren't there today and that's why we have to plan for at least an intermediate term of needing fossil fuels.  We're on the same page there.

However, I don't understand how they miscalculated.  Commodity industries are always subject to the winds of the markets and global events.  If anyone could predict those, they would just trade futures all day.  Neither of us would be here, we could be preparing to make a trade tomorrow that our kids would never have to work again. 

What they need to do is try to build and/or maintain infrastructure where they can try and be a viable business in both low and higher price environments.  If we expect them to produce more but cap their profits during peak pricing but expect them to eat the losses or low margins when prices are low, such as during the pandemic and the Saudi/Russia price war, they'll never survive.  It's not a realistic ask of them.
Click to expand...
Problem as I see it was swings of -$20 to $120 barrel in less than 2 years. $100B in exploration and development was wiped out due to Covid in 2020.  No one wanted to invest on the way up in 2021, and no one wants to invest if OPEC and Russia are going to turn the spigot back on.   This isn’t a Biden/Trump problem. This is trying to save Kodak as we are knocking on the door of digital cameras. 

 
Most Democrats fret about a midterm wipeout, but recent polling shows grounds for optimism. Bryan Bennett, a pollster for Navigator Research, a coalition of progressive pollsters, noted that something “weird” is happening in this political moment. Biden’s approval rating is hovering around 40%, which suggests that Republican victories in the November midterms will be not so much a wave as a “tsunami,” he said. And yet in polls pitting generic Democrats against Republicans in congressional races, Democrats perform better than expected given the president’s low standing. Indeed, since the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade, three polls came out showing Democrats leading Republicans by anywhere from 3 to 7 percentage points.

 
Nugget said:
We are maxed on refining capacity. If we don’t move it prices go up faster. 
Click to expand...
Then we shouldn't be releasing SPR oil that must go overseas.  That's simply robbing the populace of its safety valve.  

I'd regard knowingly sending out SPR oil to places like China and India as treasonous.  Other than Afghanistan this takes the cake as the most idiotic set of decisions made by this administration.  And it's a long, long list.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sand said:
Then we shouldn't be releasing SPR oil that must go overseas.  That's simply robbing the populace of its safety valve.  

I'd regard knowingly sending out SPR oil to places like China and India is treasonous.  Other than Afghanistan this takes the cake as the most idiotic set of decisions made by this administration.  And it's a long, long list.
Click to expand...
Treasonous?  We export oil to those countries all the time.

And it seems by most articles…the bulk of this is going to Europe to refine and make up for Russian oil.

 
Got regular unleaded for $3.93 on my way home from Atlanta to Philadelphia this weekend.  Gas on average in Atlanta was around $4.30.  The gas was a lot cheaper than I thought it would be for my trip.  Cost me about $120 each way.  Here in Philly it's $4.89 a gallon.

 
Word is Biden will leave Saudi Arabia without an announcement of more oil supply.  So squelching domestic supply and getting a stiff arm internationally.  Ouch.

 
Sand said:
Word is Biden will leave Saudi Arabia without an announcement of more oil supply.  So squelching domestic supply and getting a stiff arm internationally.  Ouch.
Click to expand...


Question: You said we'd see relief at some point in the not too distant future.  What is the message for Americans who are looking for that relief now.  When can they expect to see a real change in prices although they already been coming down.

Biden: They've already seen a real change.  They've been coming down every single day to the best of my knowledge.

Question: When can they see the impact of this visit.

Biden: I suspect you won't see that for another couple of weeks.  And we'll see more when we see gas stations start to lower their prices consistent with what they're paying.

 
FWIW, I'm well past the $100. Spent $150 in TN on diesel yesterday and it didn't fill the tank. Sucks. 

I'm fortunate as this doesn't crush me. But for regular folks, this is awful.

I traveled a good bit the last month and this was the #1 topic naturally for every Uber/Lyft driver. It's brutal. 

 
Sand said:
Word is Biden will leave Saudi Arabia without an announcement of more oil supply.  So squelching domestic supply and getting a stiff arm internationally.  Ouch.
Click to expand...
He did get a fist bump thou from the guy he called a murderer. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Paid $120.00 for a tank this week in AZ, still $5.00 a gallon.  When is that extra oil coming from Middle East.  I don’t think the fist pump by Joe got it done!

 
Buttigieg on electric cars: We're seeing, if you car payment is higher, your saving on gas so you come out a "little bit" ahead.

Jimmy Failla response: It's not a real solution to the problem.  The people who can't afford $5 gas are the same people who can't afford an EV.  You're asking people to live beyond their means.  It's not a NOW solution.  Even if we had the capacity and money to go green, we can't go green tomorrow or the next day because we don't have the infrastructure.  Analogy: If your house is on fire, you don't want to call the fire department and have them tell you "you're in luck because we're going to invest in technology down the road that will decrease house fires" as your house burns down.

 
Snotbubbles said:
Buttigieg on electric cars: We're seeing, if you car payment is higher, your saving on gas so you come out a "little bit" ahead.

Jimmy Failla response: It's not a real solution to the problem.  The people who can't afford $5 gas are the same people who can't afford an EV.  You're asking people to live beyond their means.  It's not a NOW solution.  Even if we had the capacity and money to go green, we can't go green tomorrow or the next day because we don't have the infrastructure.  Analogy: If your house is on fire, you don't want to call the fire department and have them tell you "you're in luck because we're going to invest in technology down the road that will decrease house fires" as your house burns down.
Click to expand...
Buttigieg is an idiot.

Even if those most suffering from gas prices had any savings, EV's cost $10K more upfront than ICE. Plus chargers, etc.

Overall, the average price paid for an electric vehicle in the U.S. in May was up 22% from a year earlier, at about $54,000, according to J.D. Power. By comparison, the average paid for an internal-combustion vehicle increased 14% in that period, to about $44,400.

Source: WSJ

 
Was his statement if gas is high just go buy and EV?  Or is he strictly talking the cost benefit of a higher cost for EV being offset by savings in gas as well as maintenance?  If the latter, that seems to be a reasonable point and a reason many are looking to EV these days and in the future.

 
sho nuff said:
Was his statement if gas is high just go buy and EV?  Or is he strictly talking the cost benefit of a higher cost for EV being offset by savings in gas as well as maintenance?  If the latter, that seems to be a reasonable point and a reason many are looking to EV these days and in the future.
Click to expand...
It was the former.  Anyway, if more families are living paycheck to paycheck, they can’t afford a car payment and higher insurance.  Even if they could, it’s a stress on the power grid (see Texas), and it’s not Like you can just go buy one because of the supply chain.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Snotbubbles said:
Buttigieg on electric cars: We're seeing, if you car payment is higher, your saving on gas so you come out a "little bit" ahead.

Jimmy Failla response: It's not a real solution to the problem.  The people who can't afford $5 gas are the same people who can't afford an EV.  You're asking people to live beyond their means.  It's not a NOW solution.  Even if we had the capacity and money to go green, we can't go green tomorrow or the next day because we don't have the infrastructure.  Analogy: If your house is on fire, you don't want to call the fire department and have them tell you "you're in luck because we're going to invest in technology down the road that will decrease house fires" as your house burns down.
Click to expand...
2024 will be the Let them Eat Cake platform for the blue team.

 
sho nuff said:
Was his statement if gas is high just go buy and EV?  Or is he strictly talking the cost benefit of a higher cost for EV being offset by savings in gas as well as maintenance?  If the latter, that seems to be a reasonable point and a reason many are looking to EV these days and in the future.
Click to expand...
The EV sticker price increases are recent (last 18 mos.) and due to rapidly increased commodities prices such as lithium and cobalt.

The vast majority of life-cycle ICE vs EV cost comparisons Buttigieg is referring to are out-of-date and don't reflect the recent surge in EV upfront prices.

 
Battery prices have been declining for years, but that may be about to change. One firm projects a sharp increase in demand for battery minerals over the next four years that could push the price of EV battery cells up by more than 20%. That’s on top of already-rising prices for battery-related raw materials, a result of supply-chain disruptions related to Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The higher costs have some electric vehicle makers boosting their prices, making the already-expensive vehicles even less affordable for average Americans and begging the question, will surging commodity prices slow the electric-vehicle revolution?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/21/electric-vehicle-prices-rise-at-tesla-rivian-gm-and-other-carmakers.html

 
Stoneworker said:
Battery prices have been declining for years, but that may be about to change. One firm projects a sharp increase in demand for battery minerals over the next four years that could push the price of EV battery cells up by more than 20%. That’s on top of already-rising prices for battery-related raw materials, a result of supply-chain disruptions related to Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The higher costs have some electric vehicle makers boosting their prices, making the already-expensive vehicles even less affordable for average Americans and begging the question, will surging commodity prices slow the electric-vehicle revolution?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/21/electric-vehicle-prices-rise-at-tesla-rivian-gm-and-other-carmakers.html
Click to expand...
That part is simple -Biden will demand they lower their prices.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lucky for me the first Quick Trip in Colorado opened up 6 miles from me a month or so ago. Since they opened they have been selling gas around .50 to 1.00 cheaper then anyone. Today $3.79.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FairWarning said:
It was the former.  Anyway, if more families are living paycheck to paycheck, they can’t afford a car payment and higher insurance.  Even if they could, it’s a stress on the power grid (see Texas), and it’s not Like you can just go buy one because of the supply chain.  
Click to expand...
Do you have a link to where this came from?

 
Snotbubbles said:
Buttigieg on electric cars: We're seeing, if you car payment is higher, your saving on gas so you come out a "little bit" ahead.

Jimmy Failla response: It's not a real solution to the problem.  The people who can't afford $5 gas are the same people who can't afford an EV.  You're asking people to live beyond their means.  It's not a NOW solution.  Even if we had the capacity and money to go green, we can't go green tomorrow or the next day because we don't have the infrastructure.  Analogy: If your house is on fire, you don't want to call the fire department and have them tell you "you're in luck because we're going to invest in technology down the road that will decrease house fires" as your house burns down.
Click to expand...


Even if this analogy were accurate: (it is not, fires are rare and difficult to plan for whereas gas price inceases are the opposite), what solution would you offer that would give instant relief? US refined gasoline prices are already among the lowest in the world.

 
FairWarning said:
It was the former.  Anyway, if more families are living paycheck to paycheck, they can’t afford a car payment and higher insurance.  Even if they could, it’s a stress on the power grid (see Texas), and it’s not Like you can just go buy one because of the supply chain.  
Click to expand...
Seems more the latter from my search of the quote as it was an overall discussion about how they are looking to make EVs more affordable.

 
sho nuff said:
Seems more the latter from my search of the quote as it was an overall discussion about how they are looking to make EVs more affordable.
Click to expand...
He has said (implied this) last year also on South Bend TV, those are my local channels.  Stabenow had the great comment when the gas was really rising about it not mattering to her as she had a EV.  

 
FairWarning said:
He has said (implied this) last year also on South Bend TV, those are my local channels.  Stabenow had the great comment when the gas was really rising about it not mattering to her as she had a EV.  
Click to expand...
And the last  time it was also pulled out of context in an overall talk about infrastructure and EVs. It was never just a gas is high, buy and EV kind of conversation.

And Stabenow was tone deaf in the way she said it passing by gas stations…but her overall point was about looking forward to more people being able to get into EVs.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

timschochet
Democrats behaving stupidly again…
2 3
Replies
119
Views
6K
timschochet
timschochet
timschochet
The Gavin Newsom thread- our next President?
4 5 6
Replies
251
Views
10K
Phil Elliott
Phil Elliott
GordonGekko
Washington Post: "Seven Ways A Recession Could Be Good For You Financially." (9/29/22 23:57 PST)
Replies
15
Views
1K
BassNBrew
BassNBrew

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Back
Top