The Slow Death of the Small RB (1 Viewer)

[Football Jones]

It was. Defenses were much more focused on stopping the run then than they are now.

Yeah he is only holds the career rushing title. He wasn't exceptionally fast or anything either. 

I am losing my patience. Do you even know what a trend is?

A trend is not one data point (last season).

What you prefer is immaterial to objective analysis of the relevance (or not) of something like the weight of a RB.

Your argument is completely flawed when you discount the examples which disprove it, saying that the reason those RB who are below 215 have other exception traits that allow them to be feature RB.

Guess what? Any RB who becomes a feature RB has exceptional traits. Every single one of them. Furthermore size is not a skill.

There is no size deficiency. That is all in your head.

 Does it work well for you?

I think you are suffering from confirmation bias.

You are the person presenting metrics by drawing a line in the sand of RB who weight 215 lbs.

Weight is something that fluctuates all the time, especially with athletes who can lose or gain weight pretty quickly through diet and exercise. Every year we hear multiple stories about players gaining 5 to 10 lbs or losing 5 to 10 lbs. Sometimes more than that. The only accurate information we have about a players weight is from the combine and players often play at different weights than what they were at the combine. It is a moving target. 

No disrespect, but you're SO far off from what this is about you don't even realize it. You're trying to tell me every single feature back has exceptional traits. That couldn't be further from the truth. Sometimes being a feature back is more about situation. It essentially means nothing simply because a RB is getting touches (by itself), only that the team needs them in that role.

This is about finding longterm feature backs in today's NFL, not discussing Emmitt Smith & what he would've done in 2018 (although, I suspect Emmitt would've done quite well).

 

[Football Jones]

Just a note that I've been using 215 for several years now.

This isn't something I just started doing (if anyone was wondering).

 

[Football Jones]

This comparison supports the OP.  If 215 is the standard (albeit seemingly arbitrary), then there *IS A TREND* towards bigger backs, insofar as this one 3 year range compared to another 3 year range is valuable. I'd want to see more first before drawing any conclusions but this table shows:

<215 lbs goes from 47% of NFL backs to 29%

>=215 lbs goes from 53% to 70%

Again, we need more, but this supports the OP. 

For the record I am in the camp that says it is the special RB traits that determine whether a RB will hit as a stud workhorse, regardless of weight. But I am interested in looking deeper since a *trend* does seem to exist.

I think we're at least on the same page. My premise is smaller RBs have more to overcome, increasingly so as they get further away from the standard.

Admittedly, vetting the exceptions is much more art (eyeball scouting) than science. That's where it gets difficult to explain, although, the concept is rather simple in that it's just a filter to help with projection.

 

[Football Jones]

With all due respect, you're not "scouting".  

Certainly not as a scout for an NFL team in a traditional sense, but what we do as FFers can be termed "scouting" from a practical standpoint, IMO.

 

[Football Jones]

Because each and every player in the NFL isn’t a special athlete or anything... it really seems like his argument boils down to this:

RBs cannot succeed in the NFL as a workhorse unless the pass the 215 lb threshold. But if they do, it’s because they are an exception with elite talent.

With that logic, he would never be wrong because every outlier to his rule is, by that second stipulation, an exception. 

Of course you could be wrong. You can stake your claim on the wrong guy.

My premise is smaller RBs have a more difficult time (being longterm feature backs) the further they get away from the standard, but within that scope, you can miss & miss big. 

215 isn't a magical filter that determines success. It's only a parameter designed to eliminate general size (weight) concerns, but there are exceptions to that, as well. There are "soft" 215+ pound RBs, for example.

 

[Biabreakable]

For single seasons, from 2000 to 2017, played RB, requiring Rushing Att >= 200, sorted by descending Weight also the number of seasons they had over 200 rushing attempts.

Le'Ron McClain 1 season
Brandon Jacobs 3 seasons
Jerome Bettis* 4 seasons
Ron Dayne 1 season
Eddie Lacy 2 seasons
LeGarrette Blount 2 season
Michael Bush 1 season
Duce Staley 1 season
Stacey Mack 1 season
Peyton Hillis 1 season
Jamal Lewis 8 seasons
Jonathan Stewart 3 seasons
LenDale White 2 seasons
Kevan Barlow 2 seasons
Jamal Anderson 1 season
Michael Turner 3 seasons
Eddie George 4 seasons
Shonn Greene 2 seasons
Maurice Smith 1 season
Beanie Wells 1 season
Tyrone Wheatley 1 season
Fred Taylor 6 seasons
Ronnie Brown 4 seasons
Troy Hambrick 1 season
Deuce McAllister 4 seasons
Antowain Smith 1 season
Mike Anderson 2 seasons
Stephen Davis 4 seasons
Jeremy Hill 3 seasons
LaMont Jordan 1 season
Mikel Leshoure 1 season
Latavius Murray 2 season
Carlos Hyde 2 seasons
Spencer Ware 1 season
Ezekial Elliot 2 seasons
Leonard Fournette 1 season
Marcel Shipp 1 season
Lamar Smith 1 season
Steven Jackson 8 seasons
Larry Johnson 2 seasons
Kevin Jones 1 season
Willis McGahee 5 seasons
Trent Richardson 1 season
Anthony Thomas 3 seasons
Arian Foster 4 seasons
Todd Gurley 3 season
Ricky Williams 5 seasons
Shaun Alexander 7 seasons
Le'Veon Bell 4 seasons
Isiah Crowell 1 season
Corey Dillon 5 seasons
CJ Anderson 1 season
Jordan Howard 2 seasons
David Johnson 1 season
Nick Goings 1 season
Alfred Morris 4 seasons
James Stewart 1 season
Chris Ivory 1 season
Doug Martin 2 seasons
Cedric Benson 4 seasons
Ladell Betts 1 season
DeShaun Foster 2 seasons
Marion Barber 3 seasons
Jay Ajayi 2 seasons
Matt Forte 9 seasons
Emmitt Smith* 4 seasons
LaDainian Tomlinson* 10 seasons
Joique Bell 1 season
Justin Fargas 2 seasons
Rudi Johnson 4 seasons
Thomas Jones 7 seasons
Ryan Mathews 2 seasons
Lamar Miller 3 seasons
DeMarco Murray 3 seasons
Adrian Peterson 8 seasons
Stevan Ridley 1 season
Andre Williams 1 season
Chris Brown 2 seasons
Ryan Grant 2 seasons
Michael Pittman 3 seasons
Vick Ballard 1 season
Ahman Green 6 seasons
Ricky Watters 1 season
Cadillac Williams 3 seasons
Zac Stacy 1 season
Domanick Williams 3 seasons
Melvin Gordon 2 seasons
Earnest Graham 1 season
William Green 1 season
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 3 seasons
Garrison Hearst 2 seasons
Travis Henry 4 seasons
Mark Ingram 3 seasons
Fred Jackson 3 seasons
Marshawn Lynch 8 seasons
Knowshon Moreno 2 seasons

Edgerrin James 7 seasons
Priest Holmes 3 seasons
Chester Taylor 1 season
James Allen 1 season
Frank Gore 12 seasons
Robert Smith 1 season
Michael Bennett 1 season
Marshall Faulk* 4 seasons
Joseph Addai 3 seasons
Julius Jones 2 seasons
Curtis Martin* 6 seasons
LeSean McCoy 8 seasons
Darren McFadden 3 seasons
Rashard Mendenhall 4 seasons
Kevin Smith 2 seasons
Alex Collins 1 season
DeAngelo Williams 4 seasons
Willie Parker 4 seasons
Kareem Hunt 1 season
Reuben Droughns 3 seasons
Devonta Freeman 2 seasons
Maurice Jones-Drew 4 seasons
Clinton Portis 6 seasons
Dominic Rhodes 1 season
Tiki Barber 6 seasons
Reggie Bush 3 seasons
Ronnie Hillman 1 season
Brian Westbrook 3 seasons
Jamaal Charles 4 seasons
Andre Ellington 1 season
Ahmad Bradshaw 2 seasons
Justin Forsett 1 season
Chris Johnson 6 seasons
Ray Rice 5 seasons
Steve Slaton 1 season
C.J. Spiller 2 seasons
Tatum Bell 1 season
Charlie Garner 2 seasons
Warrick Dunn 6 seasons

LINK

Some issues with this querry are players drafted before 2000 PFR does not have combine data for their weight. For example in the case of Emmitt Smith he was drafted at 210 lbs but he added weight after he entered the NFL. For Adrian Peterson I know his weight at the combine was 217 but he is listed at 220 by PFR there are likely other errors like this for the players drafted before 2000.

If someone wants to take this a step further and show the fantasy points generated by these players that would be relevant. 200 rushing attempts does not mean the player actually had a good season.

We may want to eliminate the players who only had one 200 or more rushing attempts in a season. There are a lot of these in the sample and I do not think they would meet the criteria of a "feature RB" for more than one season. A lot of these players got those carries because of injuries to other RB in the season that they got them.

I don't know about the rest of you but I would rather have the fantasy careers of the players below 215 lbs from this sample than the ones above 215 lbs but to each their own. There are certainly a lot of very good RB below 215 lbs on this list.

 

[EBF]

There will always be a place for guys who win with speed and quickness (Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, Jamaal Charles, etc).

I think the media has always had a flawed idea of what constitutes a "small" RB though. People like MJD, Ray Rice, and Sproles were below 215, but had typical BMI scores for a featured RB. In other words, they weren't really "small", they were just short. The draft has historically undervalued players of that ilk. In hindsight, MJD and Sproles were grossly undervalued. Branden Oliver is another one who should have been drafted.

 

[Football Jones]

There will always be a place for guys who win with speed and quickness (Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, Jamaal Charles, etc).

I think the media has always had a flawed idea of what constitutes a "small" RB though. People like MJD, Ray Rice, and Sproles were below 215, but had typical BMI scores for a featured RB. In other words, they weren't really "small", they were just short. The draft has historically undervalued players of that ilk. In hindsight, MJD and Sproles were grossly undervalued. Branden Oliver is another one who should have been drafted.

Yeah, it's all about weight for me (although, I'm not a BMI guy).

It would have to really be an outlier for me to worry about height (alone).

 

[Football Jones]

For single seasons, from 2000 to 2017, played RB, requiring Rushing Att >= 200, sorted by descending Weight also the number of seasons they had over 200 rushing attempts.

Le'Ron McClain 1 season
Brandon Jacobs 3 seasons
Jerome Bettis* 4 seasons
Ron Dayne 1 season
Eddie Lacy 2 seasons
LeGarrette Blount 2 season
Michael Bush 1 season
Duce Staley 1 season
Stacey Mack 1 season
Peyton Hillis 1 season
Jamal Lewis 8 seasons
Jonathan Stewart 3 seasons
LenDale White 2 seasons
Kevan Barlow 2 seasons
Jamal Anderson 1 season
Michael Turner 3 seasons
Eddie George 4 seasons
Shonn Greene 2 seasons
Maurice Smith 1 season
Beanie Wells 1 season
Tyrone Wheatley 1 season
Fred Taylor 6 seasons
Ronnie Brown 4 seasons
Troy Hambrick 1 season
Deuce McAllister 4 seasons
Antowain Smith 1 season
Mike Anderson 2 seasons
Stephen Davis 4 seasons
Jeremy Hill 3 seasons
LaMont Jordan 1 season
Mikel Leshoure 1 season
Latavius Murray 2 season
Carlos Hyde 2 seasons
Spencer Ware 1 season
Ezekial Elliot 2 seasons
Leonard Fournette 1 season
Marcel Shipp 1 season
Lamar Smith 1 season
Steven Jackson 8 seasons
Larry Johnson 2 seasons
Kevin Jones 1 season
Willis McGahee 5 seasons
Trent Richardson 1 season
Anthony Thomas 3 seasons
Arian Foster 4 seasons
Todd Gurley 3 season
Ricky Williams 5 seasons
Shaun Alexander 7 seasons
Le'Veon Bell 4 seasons
Isiah Crowell 1 season
Corey Dillon 5 seasons
CJ Anderson 1 season
Jordan Howard 2 seasons
David Johnson 1 season
Nick Goings 1 season
Alfred Morris 4 seasons
James Stewart 1 season
Chris Ivory 1 season
Doug Martin 2 seasons
Cedric Benson 4 seasons
Ladell Betts 1 season
DeShaun Foster 2 seasons
Marion Barber 3 seasons
Jay Ajayi 2 seasons
Matt Forte 9 seasons
Emmitt Smith* 4 seasons
LaDainian Tomlinson* 10 seasons
Joique Bell 1 season
Justin Fargas 2 seasons
Rudi Johnson 4 seasons
Thomas Jones 7 seasons
Ryan Mathews 2 seasons
Lamar Miller 3 seasons
DeMarco Murray 3 seasons
Adrian Peterson 8 seasons
Stevan Ridley 1 season
Andre Williams 1 season
Chris Brown 2 seasons
Ryan Grant 2 seasons
Michael Pittman 3 seasons
Vick Ballard 1 season
Ahman Green 6 seasons
Ricky Watters 1 season
Cadillac Williams 3 seasons
Zac Stacy 1 season
Domanick Williams 3 seasons
Melvin Gordon 2 seasons
Earnest Graham 1 season
William Green 1 season
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 3 seasons
Garrison Hearst 2 seasons
Travis Henry 4 seasons
Mark Ingram 3 seasons
Fred Jackson 3 seasons
Marshawn Lynch 8 seasons
Knowshon Moreno 2 seasons

Edgerrin James 7 seasons
Priest Holmes 3 seasons
Chester Taylor 1 season
James Allen 1 season
Frank Gore 12 seasons
Robert Smith 1 season
Michael Bennett 1 season
Marshall Faulk* 4 seasons
Joseph Addai 3 seasons
Julius Jones 2 seasons
Curtis Martin* 6 seasons
LeSean McCoy 8 seasons
Darren McFadden 3 seasons
Rashard Mendenhall 4 seasons
Kevin Smith 2 seasons
Alex Collins 1 season
DeAngelo Williams 4 seasons
Willie Parker 4 seasons
Kareem Hunt 1 season
Reuben Droughns 3 seasons
Devonta Freeman 2 seasons
Maurice Jones-Drew 4 seasons
Clinton Portis 6 seasons
Dominic Rhodes 1 season
Tiki Barber 6 seasons
Reggie Bush 3 seasons
Ronnie Hillman 1 season
Brian Westbrook 3 seasons
Jamaal Charles 4 seasons
Andre Ellington 1 season
Ahmad Bradshaw 2 seasons
Justin Forsett 1 season
Chris Johnson 6 seasons
Ray Rice 5 seasons
Steve Slaton 1 season
C.J. Spiller 2 seasons
Tatum Bell 1 season
Charlie Garner 2 seasons
Warrick Dunn 6 seasons

LINK

Some issues with this querry are players drafted before 2000 PFR does not have combine data for their weight. For example in the case of Emmitt Smith he was drafted at 210 lbs but he added weight after he entered the NFL. For Adrian Peterson I know his weight at the combine was 217 but he is listed at 220 by PFR there are likely other errors like this for the players drafted before 2000.

If someone wants to take this a step further and show the fantasy points generated by these players that would be relevant. 200 rushing attempts does not mean the player actually had a good season.

We may want to eliminate the players who only had one 200 or more rushing attempts in a season. There are a lot of these in the sample and I do not think they would meet the criteria of a "feature RB" for more than one season. A lot of these players got those carries because of injuries to other RB in the season that they got them.

I don't know about the rest of you but I would rather have the fantasy careers of the players below 215 lbs from this sample than the ones above 215 lbs but to each their own. There are certainly a lot of very good RB below 215 lbs on this list.

We just don't see eye to eye on this, but again, my premise is specifically geared towards finding longterm feature backs (FF studs).

Also, I don't consider anything anywhere close to 2000 as relevant (at least in regards to my premise).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

To summarize, there's been a shift in D trends to keep up with the passing offenses. Ds must use more sub packages utilizing better pass rushers & coverage personnel. By the very nature of that, there's going to be more speed & quickness on the field.

As a RB, you typically have the speed & quickness advantage against all front 7 personnel in a standard defensive package. You usually don't meet your raw athletic match until you're in the secondary. In the "small" sub packages with faster pass rushers, coverage LBs, safeties essentially playing the LB position, & more DBs, it's a different game. That's certainly not the only reason, but definitely one of the bigger reasons smaller RBs (& there's still a bunch of them coming out) are finding it more difficult in today's NFL. Size is a factor, as well. Players are getting bigger, but as I mentioned, there's still a lot of smaller RBs coming out.

Having a weight standard is just a way to filter. At it's heart, it's just a simpler way to project. Scouting is all about projecting & if you can shrink your error margin when projecting, you're ahead of the game.

So all other things equal your prefer the bigger back to the smaller back? That's not as revolutionary as you seem to think - and its not your original premise in this thread. I dont think anyone would argue that given similiar metrics across the board the 220 pound back is the safer bet against the 205 pound back. I'm not sure that's article worthy though - its common sense.

 

[Football Jones]

So all other things equal your prefer the bigger back to the smaller back? That's not as revolutionary as you seem to think - and its not your original premise in this thread. I dont think anyone would argue that given similiar metrics across the board the 220 pound back is the safer bet against the 205 pound back. I'm not sure that's article worthy though - its common sense.

I never claimed it was revolutionary. In fact, I mentioned earlier it's not rocket science.

Most FFers prefer bigger feature backs (including me), but I'll take any stud I can get. This is just a way to vette smaller RBs.

 

[santo71]

I never claimed it was revolutionary. In fact, I mentioned earlier it's not rocket science.

There's that rocket science reference again...

 

[Football Jones]

There's that rocket science reference again...

I was hoping you wouldn't see this.

ROCKET SCENCE, BAY-BEE!