The Trent Richardson Thread (15 Viewers)

[menobrown]

Can barely give this guy away in any of my leagues.

And on the other hand I own him in a few leagues and constantly get trade offers for him. If I did not already own him I'd be out trying to acquire him at his buy low price. I can honestly say in the leagues I own him I've never offered him a trade or felt an offer I got was really worth consideration.

He stunk last year and I'm not really interested in spending the next 8 months defending him, so anyone who feels compelled to disagree with my stance is welcome and will not get a rebuttal from me. But this whole notion of selling a guy for pennies on the dollar because he stunk after getting traded in-season a year after he showed a lot of promise during an injury riddled rookie season is a notion I'll never get behind.

What is a low price for you? What offers have you gotten?

In the last few weeks the only offer I can recall that was straight up was Trent for Vincent Jackson. The other after season offers have all been multiple player offers with Trent involved. So hard to gauge the part of the offer that Trent was tied to but it did not feel like much. I'd be more specific but most of these leagues are FFPC leagues and I can't locate the turned down trade offers on their site and cleaned out my e-mail recently so don't have them. The only other one I can specifically recall was 1.4, 1.6 and Trent for Jamal Charles. This owner ended up dealing Charles a few days later for Ben Tate, Michaels and Nicks. Again not looking to get into a debate on Trents value or start a tangent discussing other players value but I valued the 1.4, 1.6 and Trent all individually more than the individual value of Tate, Michaels or Nicks.

In season I was offered Zac Stacy for him straight a few weeks after Stacy emerged. Values change and since that time Trent continued to stink and Stacy for the most part continued to play well so not sure that offer would exist from that owner today. If it did, I'd still say no.

In season in week 11 in FFPC 1.5 TE format was offered Julius Thomas for Trent and my #1, which projected as surefire top 6 pick. Again values change so not sure if that offer would be available today but that pick ended up being 1.4 and I would not trade Trent and the 1.4 for Julius Thomas today.

In season in one of few leagues I don't own Trent, I think around week 5 if not a few weeks later, I offered Eddie Lacy for Trent. I got turned down. Today I would not trade Lacy for Richardson.

 

[starks]

What is his worth in dynasty? What would you pay/sell him for as far as future draft picks?

(I imagine the buyers are going to be bad so maybe I should just be asking the sellers)

 

[Eminence]

Let's be objective here, Richardson is an absolutely terrible fit for this offense. If the blocking gets better upfront and the Colts draft another receiver, maybe we see a rebound. But this is a guy who needs 20+ carries a game to be succesful and Indy's defense makes that unlikely to happen.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I can't recall another player that looked so much like a prototypical elite RB should look, yet performed so poorly.

 

[ghostguy123]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

 

[Eminence]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

I don't think his usage helps him much. Indy didn't run the ball much from what I saw, the majority of their runs came from 3WR sets. The few times they did go 2TE, it was obvious Richardson was running.

I don't think it's a great fit but I think with better blocking Richardson could be a decent player. Definitely overrated though.

 

[menobrown]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

That's all true this season but I thought none of was true his rookie season. For the most part looked fantastic to the eye test his rookie season. The YPC guys can disagree but he looked every bit like the real deal to me his rookie season and that was playing hurt most of the time. Obviously guys like Grigson felt the same way thus the willingness to surrender a #1 pick for a devalued position, which no one would have come close to paying based on how he looked this season.

As I've said many times if this season was his rookie season I'd be getting rid of him for just about nothing, no matter the investment. But I watched him his rookie season, every carry in fact, and very much liked what I saw. In terms of his performance the debate after his rookie season seemed to be either those who thought he was potentially great if he could stay healthy versus those who thought he was simply good and overvalued if not just average. This past season he was far south from average. The main concern with him after his rookie season with most people was not if he could perform so much as his ability to stay healthy, not if he could perform at a level at least a solid enough to maintain heavy usage.

 

[ghostguy123]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

I don't think his usage helps him much. Indy didn't run the ball much from what I saw, the majority of their runs came from 3WR sets. The few times they did go 2TE, it was obvious Richardson was running.

I don't think it's a great fit but I think with better blocking Richardson could be a decent player. Definitely overrated though.

He sucked in the same way before he got to Indy

 

[ghostguy123]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

That's all true this season but I thought none of was true his rookie season. For the most part looked fantastic to the eye test his rookie season. The YPC guys can disagree but he looked every bit like the real deal to me his rookie season and that was playing hurt most of the time. Obviously guys like Grigson felt the same way thus the willingness to surrender a #1 pick for a devalued position, which no one would have come close to paying based on how he looked this season.

As I've said many times if this season was his rookie season I'd be getting rid of him for just about nothing, no matter the investment. But I watched him his rookie season, every carry in fact, and very much liked what I saw. In terms of his performance the debate after his rookie season seemed to be either those who thought he was potentially great if he could stay healthy versus those who thought he was simply good and overvalued if not just average. This past season he was far south from average. The main concern with him after his rookie season with most people was not if he could perform so much as his ability to stay healthy, not if he could perform at a level at least a solid enough to maintain heavy usage.

I honestly for the life of me can not understand why you think he looked like the real deal. He looked "decent". There were 20 other guys last year who "looked" just as good or better. And this year, obvioulsy 50 more than that.

I thought he could improve, but once week one hit and I watched him, I was shocked that he not only didnt improve but he looked worse.

 

[Todem]

Coming off the season he just had he is undefendable. I own him in one league (took him #1 overall like everyone else) and have moved on. I won't trade him as he has virtually zero value right now. So the only thing to do is hope he can turn it around. I am sure we will all know right away in pre-season if he either get's it or not.

But he showed the worst vision I think I have ever seen....in a long time by a blue chip prospect. He was brutal bad. I thought he was having an adjustment period when he first got to Indy....but as the season wore on he got worse and worse it became painfuly apparent thousands of dynasty owners have been duped. He is a huge bust right now.

At least Ingram (speaking of Alabama RB's) showed what he can do this past season given the opportunity. Kid ran angry all season.

If TRich turns it around next season......bonus. I am moving on though and restocking the RB shelf on this particular dynasty team as if he is gone and never coming back.

The last three Bama backs each bring different skill sets.

Ingram - a classic chain mover IMO and a guy who get's stronger and stronger as the game wears on. great initial burst to the hole...the best of all three. His situation though stinks. Thomas and Sproles ahead of him.....pass happy offense all the way. Not a great fit at all to feature a guy like Ingram.

T.Rich - Power, good (not elite) speed and soft hands. He is the most balanced back (can run tough, block and catch 3 down back potential) of the three and IMO physically the most gifted....it remians to be seen if he will ever realize his physical potential. Everything is between the ears with T.Rich right now.....everything.

Lacy - A bruiser a classic brusier who will undoubtly have a very short but exciting shelf life. He went to the best situation in that Green Bay really needed a big back and their offense is great and creates plenty of space. Franklin and Starks are not in Lacys class overall and he is firmly the guy. Green Bay loved that they could pound the ball now to balance their offense and when all of them are healthy they will be deadly (Rodgers, Cobb, Lacy) They now have a big three.

I think T.Rich is now in a great siuation and let's see if he can capitalize on it in 2014. Depsite what Donald Brown showed last year....he has been a complete enigma his entire career....maybe T.Rich arriving sparked him....he was a heck of a back in college and a former first rounder himself. He did look really fast this year.....never saw him run like he did this season....not even close.

 

[TwinTurbo]

People keep bringing up his numbers. Just WATCH him. He misses holes, doesn't avoid tacklers well, and looks slow.

Oh yeah, and his numbers are also terrible.

That's all true this season but I thought none of was true his rookie season. For the most part looked fantastic to the eye test his rookie season. The YPC guys can disagree but he looked every bit like the real deal to me his rookie season and that was playing hurt most of the time. Obviously guys like Grigson felt the same way thus the willingness to surrender a #1 pick for a devalued position, which no one would have come close to paying based on how he looked this season.

As I've said many times if this season was his rookie season I'd be getting rid of him for just about nothing, no matter the investment. But I watched him his rookie season, every carry in fact, and very much liked what I saw. In terms of his performance the debate after his rookie season seemed to be either those who thought he was potentially great if he could stay healthy versus those who thought he was simply good and overvalued if not just average. This past season he was far south from average. The main concern with him after his rookie season with most people was not if he could perform so much as his ability to stay healthy, not if he could perform at a level at least a solid enough to maintain heavy usage.

I honestly for the life of me can not understand why you think he looked like the real deal. He looked "decent". There were 20 other guys last year who "looked" just as good or better. And this year, obvioulsy 50 more than that.

I thought he could improve, but once week one hit and I watched him, I was shocked that he not only didnt improve but he looked worse.

He looks like the real deal from a physical standpoint. But sort of like how Roy Williams or Charles Rogers looked like God reached down from the heavens to create the perfect WR, the actual performance never backed it up.

I also think the Mark Ingram improvement this season was mostly a mirage. Lacy on the other hand looks every bit like a franchise back.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Colts hired ex-Browns HC Rob Chudzinski as special assistant to the head coach.

Chudzinski and coach Chuck Pagano have a history together; they both worked on the same staff at the University of Miami in the late 1990s and then with the Browns in 2004. Chudzinski has a bright offensive mind, and this could be a way of putting OC Pep Hamilton on notice. Chudzinski has always favored a downfield, aerial attack, which is in stark contrast to Hamilton's run-heavy tendencies. Chudzinski has a tight-end background. His hire would seem to be good news for Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Chud also gets reunited with Trent Richardson.

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

 

[cstu]

Colts hired ex-Browns HC Rob Chudzinski as special assistant to the head coach.

Chudzinski and coach Chuck Pagano have a history together; they both worked on the same staff at the University of Miami in the late 1990s and then with the Browns in 2004. Chudzinski has a bright offensive mind, and this could be a way of putting OC Pep Hamilton on notice. Chudzinski has always favored a downfield, aerial attack, which is in stark contrast to Hamilton's run-heavy tendencies. Chudzinski has a tight-end background. His hire would seem to be good news for Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Chud also gets reunited with Trent Richardson.

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

Maybe he'll help him get up to the 3.4 YPC he had in Cleveland last year. This is much better news for Fleener and Allen.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

Wat? Chud is one of the guys that decided to jettison Trent in Cleveland.

 

[ghostguy123]

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

Wat? Chud is one of the guys that decided to jettison Trent in Cleveland.

he is?

 

[pizzatyme]

You guys still beating this dead horse I see.

Chud is a good hire for Indy. Depending on his role, I'm hopeful he helps Pep to open up his playbook a bit and be more creative.

 

[ghostguy123]

You guys still beating this dead horse I see.

Chud is a good hire for Indy. Depending on his role, I'm hopeful he helps Pep to open up his playbook a bit and be more creative.

We are just covering our bases to add to your collaborative efforts.

No stone unturned.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

Wat? Chud is one of the guys that decided to jettison Trent in Cleveland.

he is?

not sure if he was part of that decision process, but the Colts have a lot invested in Trent and wouldn't make sense hiring a "special assistant" who already failed with said player unless he promised he could fix the situation.

 

[ghostguy123]

he is?

not sure if he was part of that decision process, but the Colts have a lot invested in Trent and wouldn't make sense hiring a "special assistant" who already failed with said player unless he promised he could fix the situation.

I can't think of a coach who is ok with dealing away their supposed best offensive player in week 3 leaving them with the likes of Mcgahee and.......................more crap.

Even if Chud wasn't sold that Richardson was going to be really good, I can only imagine he didn't like that move at the time.

Also not real sure 2 games would be "failing" with that player. And not real sure the Colts hiring Chud has ANYTHING to do with Richardson being there. I actrually think T-Rich being there has nothing to do with the Chud hire.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Interesting, gotta think that this hire is a huge attempt to make Trent work.

Wat? Chud is one of the guys that decided to jettison Trent in Cleveland.

he is?

not sure if he was part of that decision process, but the Colts have a lot invested in Trent and wouldn't make sense hiring a "special assistant" who already failed with said player unless he promised he could fix the situation.

Maybe they just think he's a good offensive coach? It doesn't necessarily have anything whatsoever to do with any individual player.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Barring a miracle Trent will go down as the biggest miss i've ever had in FF. Invested a top 5 overall dynasty pick on him and would have bet anything he would be a solid FF starter barring injury.

He just looked so bad last year it was mind boggling.

A true enigma, don't think i'll ever be able to wrap my head around what went wrong.

 

[pizzatyme]

You guys still beating this dead horse I see.

Chud is a good hire for Indy. Depending on his role, I'm hopeful he helps Pep to open up his playbook a bit and be more creative.

We are just covering our bases to add to your collaborative efforts.

No stone unturned.

You seem like a really uptight person.

 

[cstu]

Also not real sure 2 games would be "failing" with that player. And not real sure the Colts hiring Chud has ANYTHING to do with Richardson being there. I actrually think T-Rich being there has nothing to do with the Chud hire.

Chud had the entire offseason with Richardson and all he was able to get him to produce was 13 for 47 against a lousy Dolphins run defense and 18 for 58 against the Ravens. In McGahee's 2nd game after walking in off the street he put up 15 for 46.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The buy low bells are ringing on this guy. Owners are convinced that he is a bust.....sharks smell blood. He may never live up to original hype but ownership also has something to prove. Let his brain take in the playbook and shore-up the oline a little and I think you have the best "value" in FF right now.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

The buy low bells are ringing on this guy. Owners are convinced that he is a bust.....sharks smell blood. He may never live up to original hype but ownership also has something to prove. Let his brain take in the playbook and shore-up the oline a little and I think you have the best "value" in FF right now.

Yes... please. Buy "low". You aren't going to get a cheap enough price for him to justify the wasted roster spot.

 

[pizzatyme]

This board is sad sometimes. People love to argue for the sake of arguing.

Bring something of value or go to the next thread. Jeebus.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

This board is sad sometimes. People love to argue for the sake of arguing.

Bring something of value or go to the next thread. Jeebus.

You STILL haven't answered my Cousins to Indy question. :(

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

 

[pizzatyme]

Very

 

[ghostguy123]

The buy low bells are ringing on this guy. Owners are convinced that he is a bust.....sharks smell blood. He may never live up to original hype but ownership also has something to prove. Let his brain take in the playbook and shore-up the oline a little and I think you have the best "value" in FF right now.

I don't think he is a good buy low at all.

What would you define as a good buy low price on him, a 3rd round rookie pick? 4th? Nobody is selling him for that.

Once you start talking about 2nd round picks that is no longer buying low on him.

 

[Jrodicus]

The buy low bells are ringing on this guy. Owners are convinced that he is a bust.....sharks smell blood. He may never live up to original hype but ownership also has something to prove. Let his brain take in the playbook and shore-up the oline a little and I think you have the best "value" in FF right now.

I don't think he is a good buy low at all.

What would you define as a good buy low price on him, a 3rd round rookie pick? 4th? Nobody is selling him for that.

Once you start talking about 2nd round picks that is no longer buying low on him.

Once you start talking....I stop listening.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

Where did you get your numbers? There's no way Richardson only had 4 "clock-killing" carries. I'm almost positive he had more than that in the SEA game alone. I guess it depends on what your definition of "clock killing" means, so maybe it's that.

I'm edging towards Richardson as a buy low candidate based purely on how low his price may be dropping, but I don't think there's an argument to be made for his performance in 2013, personally. I certainly don't think saying that adding another RB to the mix is going to help because Richardson might get a few more opportunities in a situation that another RB was more successful in is very convincing.

The O-line was terrible, I certainly agree on that. A terrible O-line will impact Richardson more than it will Brown, but it doesn't mean that Richardson didn't, or doesn't, suck.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

Where did you get your numbers? There's no way Richardson only had 4 "clock-killing" carries. I'm almost positive he had more than that in the SEA game alone. I guess it depends on what your definition of "clock killing" means, so maybe it's that.

I'm edging towards Richardson as a buy low candidate based purely on how low his price may be dropping, but I don't think there's an argument to be made for his performance in 2013, personally. I certainly don't think saying that adding another RB to the mix is going to help because Richardson might get a few more opportunities in a situation that another RB was more successful in is very convincing.

The O-line was terrible, I certainly agree on that. A terrible O-line will impact Richardson more than it will Brown, but it doesn't mean that Richardson didn't, or doesn't, suck.

Richardson's (and Brown's) carries in the 4th against Seattle don't qualify, imo. They weren't inside of the 2 minute warning, the Colts' only had a 3 point lead, and they were passing during that drive to try and gain yardage). Seattle had already used all of their timeouts...so per the definition of "clock killing" that I already stated, I don't think they qualify.

I got my numbers by going through the play-by-play for each game. If you would like to do the same, with your own definition of "clock killing," you are welcome to do so.

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Thank you for the astute analysis and wonderful contribution to the discussion.

 

[stbugs]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?

Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?

Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I agree with every thing except the experimenting with TRich more, they were in the hunt for the bye until the Patriots won on the final day of the regular season.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Thank you for the astute analysis and wonderful contribution to the discussion.

Brevity is underrated. But if you want me to spend more words on how I thought your post was bad, you could ask nicely.

 

[SproutDaddy]

The buy low bells are ringing on this guy. Owners are convinced that he is a bust.....sharks smell blood. He may never live up to original hype but ownership also has something to prove. Let his brain take in the playbook and shore-up the oline a little and I think you have the best "value" in FF right now.

I don't think he is a good buy low at all.What would you define as a good buy low price on him, a 3rd round rookie pick? 4th? Nobody is selling him for that.

Once you start talking about 2nd round picks that is no longer buying low on him.

Once you start talking....I stop listening.

Thank you

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Thank you for the astute analysis and wonderful contribution to the discussion.

Brevity is underrated. But if you want me to spend more words on how I thought your post was bad, you could ask nicely.

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?

Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

 

[ghostguy123]

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

Right on, way to add more value to the discussion by not adding value to the discussion, telling someone else to add value to the discussion. I think he made it pretty clear. "meh" is probably more constructive that really commenting on the excuses given for why Richardson sucked. Sounded like his mom making things up on his behalf.

And nice to see I have a fan club, impressive.

Still waiting for some people to post what they feel would be a good "buy low" price. For me, 3rd rounder.

 

[Jrodicus]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

I am basing on how much he sucked by looking at him when watching him.

It's getting REALLY bad when we have to talk about how he converted some 3rd and 1's and 4th and 1's.

 

[squistion]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Thank you for the astute analysis and wonderful contribution to the discussion.

Brevity is underrated. But if you want me to spend more words on how I thought your post was bad, you could ask nicely.

Not in your case. Whether you agree or not with his analysis, Jrodicus did pen a well thought out and researched opinion IMO. Responding dismissively with a meh added absolutely nothing to the discussion

 

[Jrodicus]

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

Right on, way to add more value to the discussion by not adding value to the discussion, telling someone else to add value to the discussion. I think he made it pretty clear. "meh" is probably more constructive that really commenting on the excuses given for why Richardson sucked. Sounded like his mom making things up on his behalf.

And nice to see I have a fan club, impressive.

Still waiting for some people to post what they feel would be a good "buy low" price. For me, 3rd rounder.

What's next..."I know you are but what am I." C'mon.

I thought ghosts were supposed to disappear?

 

[msudaisy26]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

You do realize to get Richardson to 4.0 yards per carry he would have had to have 57 rushes on 3rd or 4th in short and averaged only 1 yard on each one of those rushing attempts, then subtract those rushes. I don't think it is going out on a limb to say shortage didn't hurt his ypc that much.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Thank you for the astute analysis and wonderful contribution to the discussion.

Brevity is underrated. But if you want me to spend more words on how I thought your post was bad, you could ask nicely.

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?

Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

Ohhh, I think you do care. Why else would you be replying to me?

 

[ghostguy123]

I really don't care what you think about the post. Add some value to the discussion, whether you agree or disagree. If you aren't adding value, why bother?Replying for the sake of boosting your post count, without writing anything worth reading, is overrated.

Right on, way to add more value to the discussion by not adding value to the discussion, telling someone else to add value to the discussion. I think he made it pretty clear. "meh" is probably more constructive that really commenting on the excuses given for why Richardson sucked. Sounded like his mom making things up on his behalf.

And nice to see I have a fan club, impressive.

Still waiting for some people to post what they feel would be a good "buy low" price. For me, 3rd rounder.

What's next..."I know you are but what am I." C'mon.

I thought ghosts were supposed to disappear?

This ghost will haunt your dreams. Even more than Richardson's running already haunts mine.

 

[stbugs]

I think there's a couple things that would make a big difference next year which have nothing to do with TRich (don't get me wrong, he has some things to work on, but these are things that were stacked against him in 2013):

1. Ballard coming back and helping in short yardage situations. Based on what they've done the last couple years, the Colts want to run the ball with some sort of RBBC. Besides poor pass protection, I don't think a lot of people realize how bad Brown is in short yardage situations and, subsequently, how infrequently he was used. By default, TRich was the primary short-yardage back most of the season.

I thought I would be a rebel in this thread and do some analysis (instead of just taking a 30,000 foot view or refer to a poor vision meme).

In short yardage situations where 2 yards or less were needed for a 1st down:

Brown: 4 carries, 1 yard, 0.25 ypc

TRich: 19 carries, 41 yards, 2.16 ypc

Goal to go, 3 yard line and in:

Brown: 1 carries, 1 yard, TD

TRich: 4 carries, 2 yards, 3 TDs (one carry for -2 yards, others were TDs)

"Clock killing" plays (4th quarter with a lead, forcing the opponent to burn timeouts):

Brown: 2 carries, 2 yards

TRich: 4 carries, -1 yards

17% of Trent's carries were in short-yardage situations (compared to 7% for Brown).

With Ballard back, I think he takes over much of the short yardage duties. I think that frees TRich up to be used in other schemes and formations. Ballard will likely vulture some TDs, but I think it helps Trent - if he memorizes the playbook.

A good chunk of Brown's yardage came out of shotgun formations or from delayed handoffs. No doubt Brown is faster, but I think given the opportunity in those same formations/packages, TRich would be able to break off big plays as well.

Brown had a higher YPC, but he also had runs of 51, 50, 43 yards that were out of packages that Trent wasn't used in. If you take out just those 3 runs, (he had some other big plays from the same sets), Brown's YPC drops to 3.9 instead of 5.3.

2. That line is horrible. Luck has been hit more than any other QB over the past 2 seasons. Last year was mainly because of lack of personnel. They made some decent acquisitions in the offseason, but there was a number of injuries to key people. Adding some depth to the line, and cutting ties with dead weight, would help tremendously.

meh

Agreed, seems like grasping for straws. LOL at taking out 3 of Brown's long runs and he still averages 1 ypc better than TRich. How many runs do we have to take away before Brown is down from 5.3 ypc to 2.9 ypc to match TRich? Trying to say that TRich was miserable because it was all short yardage, etc. and that Brown was always in shotgun seems kind of odd when TRich had 28 receptions in 14 games compared to Brown's 27 in 16 games. Shouldn't Brown have gotten a lot more receptions if he was the 3rrd down back as it seems above?Also, let's not forget that the Colts pretty much ran away with their division. They clinched the playoff berth in week 13 and really didn't have much of a shot at a bye. Why does that matter? Well, they could "experiment" with TRich a little more than if they were fighting for the playoffs every week. Look at the playoffs when the games really counted. Against KC, TRich - 1 touch for 0 yards and Brown 15 touches, 2 TDs and 102 total yards. Against NE, TRich - 3 touches for 1 yard and Brown 18 touches for 66 yards. So, in the Colts two most important games all year Brown had 33 touches and TRich had 4.

I think basing your entire comparison purely on YPC, without looking at usage, doesn't really count as analysis. I didn't say TRich was "miserable because he was used in short yardage." He was used on a lot of short yardage plays, so that drove his YPC down (which appears to be the only stat some people look at).

I'd have to go back and look, but Trent converted on a pretty high percentage of his short yardage carries. It may not pad the stats, but getting 1 yard on 4th and 1 to extend a drive is a successful run.

Funny that you say my comparison is solely on YPC when you brought it up to shift Brown down to 3.9 ypc and obviously with short yardage trying to allude that TRich's would have been better. I keep with these nuggets:

1. How can you even think about taking away those 3 plays from Brown when TRich in 541 career touches has never had a single play within 10 yards of all 3 of Brown's plays? One would say that lack of explosive plays is a problem with TRich.

2. Even if you subtract those 3 great plays from Brown and subtract all of the short yardage above, Brown still has 3.9 ypc and TRich has 3.2 ypc. That's right, removing the best situations from Brown and worst from TRich and Brown clearly still outplayed TRich.

3. No response to my playoff comments and how the team clearly leaned on Brown and not TRich?

4. The OL sucks and improving that will help TRich. What would it then do for the rest of the RBs, who averaged 5.0 ypc on 15 more carries than TRich? Did you know that only 1 team in the league averaged better than the "other" Colts RBs? Only the Eagles had 5.0 ypc+. Sorry, but it seems like OL + TRich sucked and OL + other RBs was solid.

I agree with the meh comment, your analysis is reaching for everything to find reasons why TRich will improve. Can TRich improve back to a good RB? Sure, but the stuff you pointed to seems to have a lot more to do with TRich's horrendous 2013 than outside factors.

 

[bengalbuck]

I appreciate the stats based posts. I understand the argument they are making for T. Rich. But it is not an argument I buy. His problem last year wasn't usage. He simply did not play well.

I do think there is a decent argument for him as a buy low but I think it is one that starts with admitting the obvious: he was bad in 2013 and just okay in 2012. From there, I do think there is hope that he can get better.

If I am the colts, I hope he gets fully healthy. I don't think he has ever fully recovered from the knee issues from the summer of 2012. I also tell him to stop with all the weight lifting. He needs to lose 10 pounds, even if it is all muscle that he loses. I think it is mainly a physical issue with Trent. He needs to re-find the burst that I believe he had back in 2010 and 2011.

Even if he doesn't turn it around to the extent that Marshawn Lynch has, I could at least see a Cedric Benson type career turnaround. Benson was a top 5 pick who was basically left for dead before turning it around and having 3 or 4 1,000 yard seasons in Cincy.