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The war in Afghanistan is over: we lost. (1 Viewer)

Leaving our top ally out of discussions on this is absolutely inexcusable and disgraceful. I’m at a loss for words on this whole thing and not very happy with Biden. 

 
Tom Tugenhat mp UK  Lit Biden and the USA up.   So much for Biden building our alliances.    Torching them faster than expected.   A bit like the Taliban retaking Afghanistan.

 
kodycutter said:
In a Sunday interview on CNN, Blinken defended the State Department’s performance, saying “we would have been back at war with the Taliban” if there was no pullout this year. 

“We were prepared, the president was prepared, for any contingency,” he insisted.

State Department spokesman Ned Price defended Bliken’s absence from the public eye following the Afghanistan evacuation. 

“You heard from him on Sunday. You have heard — and seeing that he has been working the phones with his counterparts. He has been at the White House the past few days now. He was just there this morning,” Price said.

“He’s been meeting regularly with the president. He’s been regularly meeting with the broader national security team. He’s been deeply engaged on this and I expect you’ll have an opportunity to hear from again soon.”

Blinken isn’t the only member of the Biden administration to keep a low profile amid scenes of chaos in Kabul. Vice President Kamala Harris, who previously boasted she was the last person consulted on Biden’s April decision to remove troops, also has been conspicuously missing from public view. Biden also had no public events Thursday.
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Blinken and State's turn to face the music. Pentagon and Milley took their first lashings. Pentagon spokesperson was really good this morning.

 
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......

 
kodycutter said:
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......
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He was probably taking a nap.   Because nobody told him.

 
kodycutter said:
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......
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"could" quickly collapse, I think that is important phrasing.   Also, what is "quickly"?  Were they predicting this short order as well?  

I keep circling around to this in my head.   IF the pod I was listening to was correct and the info that landed on the POTUS' desk was an 18month window, why was it so far off?  Who was in charge of finalizing that projection and had us maybe thinking we had a lot more time?

 
KarmaPolice said:
"could" quickly collapse, I think that is important phrasing.   Also, what is "quickly"?  Were they predicting this short order as well?  

I keep circling around to this in my head.   IF the pod I was listening to was correct and the info that landed on the POTUS' desk was an 18month window, why was it so far off?  Who was in charge of finalizing that projection and had us maybe thinking we had a lot more time?
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I agree with you, we should know this, all of us should know this.      skeptical that we will, because this is CYA event.

 
KarmaPolice said:
"could" quickly collapse, I think that is important phrasing.   Also, what is "quickly"?  Were they predicting this short order as well?  

I keep circling around to this in my head.   IF the pod I was listening to was correct and the info that landed on the POTUS' desk was an 18month window, why was it so far off?  Who was in charge of finalizing that projection and had us maybe thinking we had a lot more time?
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If you got a letter from your car manufacturing saying that the brakes could fail...quickly.  Would you really be focusing on "well, what does could" mean?  Oh, and not just fail, but fail soon. 

Would you read that and say, well they only said could and didn't say tomorrow?

 
djmich said:
If you got a letter from your car manufacturing saying that the brakes could fail...quickly.  Would you really be focusing on "well, what does could" mean?  Oh, and not just fail, but fail soon. 

Would you read that and say, well they only said could and didn't say tomorrow?
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It's a bit different, and IMO a big distinction when we are talking about the ability to get people out and clear out the embassy.  

I get the impression that most expected the Taliban to take over (the brakes failing in your analogy?), but as far as the rest I think it's important to know if they honestly thought they had 1yr+ or they acted knowing it was going to be days.  

 
kodycutter said:
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......
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Thanks for sharing, the fact that this gets overlooked is really unbelievable. How do you not take every precaution possible getting out of that environment? Wow. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
It's a bit different, and IMO a big distinction when we are talking about the ability to get people out and clear out the embassy.  

I get the impression that most expected the Taliban to take over (the brakes failing in your analogy?), but as far as the rest I think it's important to know if they honestly thought they had 1yr+ or they acted knowing it was going to be days.  
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I dunno, think you are over complicating.

We thought it likely the Afghans fail, even quickly.

The Taliban are bad hombres.

We have thousands of American lives at stake.

The fact that “you don’t know exactly how long” when you have these other variables is just terrible scenario planning and management by what’s supposed to be the most sophisticated military on the planet.

 
djmich said:
I dunno, think you are over complicating.

We thought it likely the Afghans fail, even quickly.

The Taliban are bad hombres.

We have thousands of American lives at stake.

The fact that “you don’t know exactly how long” when you have these other variables is just terrible scenario planning and management by what’s supposed to be the most sophisticated military on the planet.
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Exactly, and that's all I am trying to get at.  Just trying to understand where/how this timeline got so miscalculated is all.   I am guessing like most things there wasn't 100% consensus on what the timeline was, so just curious where the bad info came from and who decided to roll with it.  (maybe we won't ever truly know).  

ETA:  and yes, it's my m.o. to overthink things.  

 
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GoBirds said:
Thanks for sharing, the fact that this gets overlooked is really unbelievable. How do you not take every precaution possible getting out of that environment? Wow. 
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Several conservative media types have been pounding the table for at least a month and half or longer, calling out the lack of speed in processing the paperwork to get those folks out.  But, honestly, unless it was specifically one of those people talking about it, you never heard it mentioned anywhere by anyone. It's like it was collectively ignored or missed that this was a big deal.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Exactly, and that's all I am trying to get at.  Just trying to understand where/how this timeline got so miscalculated is all.   I am guessing like most things there wasn't 100% consensus on what the timeline was, so just curious where the bad info came from and who decided to roll with it.  (maybe we won't ever truly know).  
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I understand.

 But the broader point I am trying to make is that you never have perfect intel or close to it.  Nobody has that luxury or the luxury of knowing all your assumptions are accurate.

  However there were certainly enough ingredients (and honestly I think way more than enough) to execute and plan differently than we did.  It wasn’t an intel problem imo.  It wasn’t a “they miscalculated the timeline” problem…it was a “they didn’t plan this in a way that was warranted based on the core facts which are indisputable" problem.

Afgans suck

Taliban evil

Lots of Americans

 
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kodycutter said:
up to 80k americans and afghans need to be evacuated.

this seems like a lot, @Max Power  is this accurate? if you can share.
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We keep seeing numbers estimated from anywhere from 5k-20k (80k is the highest I've seen by far).

Everytime I see that kind of wide variation I have to think "how is it that these officials go out on record and admit how much they do NOT know, yet we are supposed to believe that they had 'all contigencies' factored, they knew what they were doing, etc, etc."

 
djmich said:
I understand.

 But the broader point I am trying to make is that you never have perfect intel or close to it.  Nobody has that luxury or the luxury of knowing all your assumptions are accurate.

  However there were certainly enough ingredients (and honestly I think way more than enough) to execute and plan differently than we did.  It wasn’t an intel problem imo.  It wasn’t a “they miscalculated the timeline” problem…it was a “they didn’t plan this in a way that was warranted based on the core facts which are indisputable.

Afgans suck

Taliban evil

Lots of Americans
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Maybe it's my overthinking it, but it has to be more nuanced that that.  

 All 4th important fact to have a plan that was warranted would be how long you have to execute said plan, right? 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Maybe it's my overthinking it, but it has to be more nuanced that that.  

 All 4th important fact to have a plan that was warranted would be how long you have to execute said plan, right? 
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You leave the support there until you are adequately withdrawn or completely confident that the zombies won't break through the door.  You don't have to guess if you have 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months. 

It was a completely unnecessary risk, the only material risk in staying was political...and here we are.

 
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djmich said:
You leave the support there until you are adequately withdrawn or completely confident that the zombies won't break through the door.  You don't have to guess if you have 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months. 

It was a completely unnecessary risk, the only material risk in staying was political...and here we are.
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I get it, I just think the time frame is more important than you do.  

timeline aside, It was a severe miscalculation that the afghan army would provide resistance for more to evacuate, and we should have left more protection if we were unsure.  or did they think that doing that put more people and  troops in jeopardy ? 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I get it, I just think the time frame is more important than you do.  

timeline aside, It was a severe miscalculation that the afghan army would provide resistance for more to evacuate, and we should have left more protection if we were unsure.  or did they think that doing that put more people and  troops in jeopardy ? 
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Once the clock started, yes the timeline was really important (would have made a huge difference if the Afghans held out for 3 months).

In the planning stage, guessing on the timeline was not important in determining the right path (because it was a guess dependent on untrustworthy variables it shouldn't have been relied upon).

The one thing I don't understand...I don't think the Afghans were defeated...I just don't think they even resisted.  Has anyone seen battle footage?  Something missing there.

 
djmich said:
You leave the support there until you are adequately withdrawn or completely confident that the zombies won't break through the door.  You don't have to guess if you have 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months. 

It was a completely unnecessary risk, the only material risk in staying was political...and here we are.
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:goodposting:

Thank you, it’s not that complicated and you nailed it. Completely unnecessary risk and reading what they are left in the middle of is awful. 

 
djmich said:
Once the clock started, yes the timeline was really important (would have made a huge difference if the Afghans held out for 3 months).

In the planning stage, guessing on the timeline was not important in determining the right path (because it was a guess dependent on untrustworthy variables it shouldn't have been relied upon).

The one thing I don't understand...I don't think the Afghans were defeated...I just don't think they even resisted.  Has anyone seen battle footage?  Something missing there.
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Yeah, was there resistance at all? 

 
kodycutter said:
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......
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This screams of bureaucratic CYA. I’d think any department worth their salt would have a dozen reports for every outcome for any scenario ready to produce.

 
djmich said:
Once the clock started, yes the timeline was really important (would have made a huge difference if the Afghans held out for 3 months).

In the planning stage, guessing on the timeline was not important in determining the right path (because it was a guess dependent on untrustworthy variables it shouldn't have been relied upon).

The one thing I don't understand...I don't think the Afghans were defeated...I just don't think they even resisted.  Has anyone seen battle footage?  Something missing there.
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It appears the Taliban made deals with locals and brokered a series of surrenders. There weren't really any battles or actual fighting, they just made threats or shook hands on their way to the presidential palace. 

 
kodycutter said:
up to 80k americans and afghans need to be evacuated.

this seems like a lot, @Max Power  is this accurate? if you can share.
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At first glance I was thinking its definitely on the high end of the spectrum. The rumor has been 40k requests for evacuation.  However we are telling people that worked for the US Gov that we will evacuate them and their families.  An Afghan family can be 20 people deep in what they would consider their immediate family. 

If we're also counting the guy who cleaned the bathroom or served food at the embassy as someone who aided the US war effort and agree to evacuate them and their families, I can totally see 80k. 

I just dont personally know where the state dept is drawing the line.

 
djmich said:
The one thing I don't understand...I don't think the Afghans were defeated...I just don't think they even resisted.  Has anyone seen battle footage?  Something missing there.
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I have to do a little digging, but there is apparently a VICE News youtube clip starting to make some rounds from a reporter who was embedded with the Afghan Special Forces in Khandahar during the takeover.

From my understanding of the clip he claims the unit he was with negotiated a ceasefire with the Taliban and let them advance without shots fired. 

So this isn't two sides just going their own ways.  It's two sides discussing and agreeing to this outcome. 

 
Max Power said:
I have to do a little digging, but there is apparently a VICE News youtube clip starting to make some rounds from a reporter who was embedded with the Afghan Special Forces in Khandahar during the takeover.

From my understanding of the clip he claims the unit he was with negotiated a ceasefire with the Taliban and let them advance without shots fired. 

So this isn't two sides just going their own ways.  It's two sides discussing and agreeing to this outcome. 
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In some ways disappointing, but probably the same end result and now a bunch of people don't get slaughtered.

Unrelated...I'd be surprised if the Taliban harm any US citizens on the way out. The one thing Biden has going for him.  I mean they just inherited the country with a bunch of state of the art equipment, last thing they would want to do is invite us back by doing dumb ####. 

 
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The French and British are going out and actively getting their folks to an evacuation spot.  We refuse to because of this agreement with the Taliban. So the French are going out to save their people and we're cowering at the airport.

And, if a US citizen isn't in Kabul, the government has said that there is no evacuation for you.

This just gets better and better.

 
Max Power said:
It potentially could have fallen into the wrong hands over time.  We left it assuming one thing and we're clearly getting another. 

It's all sitting there on parking aprons right now, so we can easily destroy most of it.  Instead we're watching the Taliban sell it to our adversaries.  It is kind of shocking actually. 
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Maybe getting the people out takes priority over not letting the hardware fall into Taliban hands.  If they didn't contingency plan for a rapid evacuation of civilians, then they likely didn't contingency plan for the Taliban getting access to the hardware this soon.  IMO, the hardware is the least of it and not something I'm overly concerned with at this point. 

 
djmich said:
In some ways disappointing, but probably the same end result and now a bunch of people don't get slaughtered.

Unrelated...I'd be surprised if the Taliban don't let any US citizens leave without harm. The one thing Biden has going for him.  I mean they just inherited the country with a bunch of state of the art equipment, last thing they would want to do is invite us back by doing dumb ####. 
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This is where I'm leery of our relationship with the Taliban.

The US hasn't said we recognize them as the government of Afghanistan.  Yet they hold a better hand currently in any negotiations.  So what is going on behind the scenes that we don't know about? 

Are we playing nice until we get the situation under control and then we turn on them?  Do we eventually recognize a terrorist organization as a government?

More importantly... does the Taliban really let their ace in the hole slide without using it? 

Something is off in this dynamic, but we haven't figured out what yet.

 
Sand said:
The French and British are going out and actively getting their folks to an evacuation spot.  We refuse to because of this agreement with the Taliban. So the French are going out to save their people and we're cowering at the airport.

And, if a US citizen isn't in Kabul, the government has said that there is no evacuation for you.

This just gets better and better.
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I saw a blip about this the other day, don't understand it. The Taliban aren't letting people through or at least making it difficult, we aren't going out to get people so the Taliban can just sit back and wait. President Biden said we'll extend after the 8/31 deadline but for how long? None of this #### makes sense.

Let the 82nd go out and do what they do, if the Taliban want to fight, fight (personally don't think they will). It's Americans, go get them.

 
Sand said:
The French and British are going out and actively getting their folks to an evacuation spot.  We refuse to because of this agreement with the Taliban. So the French are going out to save their people and we're cowering at the airport.

And, if a US citizen isn't in Kabul, the government has said that there is no evacuation for you.

This just gets better and better.
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This is causing some conflicts with the British on the ground. We have different Ideas on how to approach the situation.

I think there are going to be some long talks after this is all over. 

 
The Z Machine said:
Maybe getting the people out takes priority over not letting the hardware fall into Taliban hands.  If they didn't contingency plan for a rapid evacuation of civilians, then they likely didn't contingency plan for the Taliban getting access to the hardware this soon.  IMO, the hardware is the least of it and not something I'm overly concerned with at this point. 
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I get the priorities, but from a logistical standpoint it is an extremely simple thing to do.  We could have a fleet of B2 bombers in the air.  Hit every target and be done with this in 24 hours.  No additional forces would even need to enter the country.  Those guys are just sitting on the sidelines currently.  We're extremely well positioned and capable of conducting this operation with no impact or risk to our forces. 

Whether this administration wants to do this is a different issue. 

 
beer 30 said:
I saw a blip about this the other day, don't understand it. The Taliban aren't letting people through or at least making it difficult, we aren't going out to get people so the Taliban can just sit back and wait. President Biden said we'll extend after the 8/31 deadline but for how long? None of this #### makes sense.

Let the 82nd go out and do what they do, if the Taliban want to fight, fight (personally don't think they will). It's Americans, go get them.
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we're still pretending like the Taliban aren't impacting HKIA operations and aren't stopping people from getting to the airport. 

 
kodycutter said:
blinken

"US diplomats in Kabul wrote a memo last month warning Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Afghanistan’s government could quickly collapse — appearing to contradict President Biden’s contention that the US government was surprised by the swift Taliban advance.

Nearly two dozen diplomats signed the memo, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, on July 13 urging the State Department to begin processing vulnerable Afghans for visas to the US and to begin evacuation flights by Aug. 1.".......
Click to expand...
We're supposed to believe these diplomats...who obviously have it in for Biden?   

 
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