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There isn't a better back than JLewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RKade
- Start date
RKade
Footballguy
not invisible but I just don't like that argument. ANY RB can get hit in the knee and tear it completely, regardless of a previous injury or not. It's not like you hit JLewis the same way in the knee say as LT and LT doesn't go down for the year like JLewis.After this weekend, I can bring this thread up again and once again hear about "If you take x runs out he didn't really do much" or "He played against a crappy JAX Dee" or "His knee won't hold out" blah blah blah.He's the best back IMO going forward this year, mark that down.BTW, my posts must be invisible. But then again, that is nothing new for me. :(
Joshua Randall
Footballguy
I am one of the people who posted on the Assitant Coaches forum about trading Jamal Lewis, specifically for Moss or McNabb. So it might've been my post that prompted yours.Here is the reason to consider trading Lewis: SELL HIGH.Not because Lewis isn't a potential stud - he is. But because his value will likely NEVER be higher than it is right now. So this is the time to maximize him in trade.The game of fantasy football is at least partly a game of in-season value maximization. Every player is a commodity to be converted into other, more valuable, commodities. This goes for Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, or whomever. If you can increase your overall value by trading Lewis - or Holmes - you do it.That said, you can of course end up being wrong about your trades. But if we had a crystal ball we wouldn't need to play out the season, would we?
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Goat Herders
Footballguy
If we're going to make investment analogies ("buy low!" "sell high!") I'll toss out one of my own.Keep your portfolio (Lewis) intact, quit worrying about the value compared to other funds (McNabb, Moss), and sit back while the dividends (TDs, Yards, a week 16 matchup against the Browns) come in.HERD
RKade
Footballguy
So trade a rare stud RB for a stud WR who may or may not produce in a given week, plus you can more easily get a sleeper WR off FA land and a QB who is on a terrible offensive team. Yea, that's a brilliant move! How many QBs are better right now or give you move value than throwing a stud RB away for Donovan?I am one of the people who posted on the Assitant Coaches forum about trading Jamal Lewis, specifically for Moss or McNabb. So it might've been my post that prompted yours.Here is the reason to consider trading Lewis: SELL HIGH.Not because Lewis isn't a potential stud - he is. But because his value will likely NEVER be higher than it is right now. So this is the time to maximize him in trade.The game of fantasy football is at least partly a game of in-season value maximization. Every player is a commodity to be converted into other, more valuable, commodities. This goes for Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, or whomever. If you can increase your overall value by trading Lewis - or Holmes - you do it.That said, you can of course end up being wrong about your trades. But if we had a crystal ball we wouldn't need to play out the season, would we?
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Terry Allen had 3 of the best years of his career after an ACL injury, including 21 TDs in 1996. True, the risk is there and that is why a RB of Jamal's caliber was had later than the should of gone in most drafts. I think the risk of injury is pretty much equal for all NFL players.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Portis is better. No question.
You will watch true breakaway speed on Monday.
Jamal Lewis looks healthy and seems to be running at full speed with a lot of power. Thats not my concern. I believe that once a player has injured their ACL, their risk of re-injury or new injuries is higher than another player. They may never get hurt again - but the risk is higher, and probabilities say they will get hurt again .... And Jamal has hurt both.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
That is the biggest joke going on this board.I've always heard on this board that your knee comes back better than ever after an ACL injury as long as it is healed correctly(as im sure it has). Now which one is it?
I'll argue it til' I'm blue in the face...always do on here.Your knee does not come back "better than ever".If you want statistics, as many here do, but apparently not in this matter...do a little research on ACL's. See how many players come back "better than ever" compared to the ones that don't. And the argument that the procedures have changed, which is completely bogus, has ZERO validity. I proved that here this summer in a thread. Little has changed in RECENT years.I've had the surgery twice, by the way. And, while no pro athlete, I'm an avid one. I am also a close friend/advisor of a very prominent sports doctor in LA who ONLY does knees. NOTHING else. He is a team physician.By the way, someone will turn the last paragraph into me trying to impress -- or they will somehow belittle the facts in attempt to discredit. Please, grow up. 
I have only stated facts...keep that in mind. And I have no other motive (as many posters due) than to talk about something I do know. Like I said, I've had it twice and have had endless conversations with a true expert on the matter...not a FF message board expert who "owns" the player.And yes, there is a ton I DON'T know. 
That's why I'm here. That is all I will say. Believe it, if you want. But, I won't get stuck in a thread battle on this -- which, inevitably, becomes a whirlpool of ignorance.Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Jamal Lewis will not be the top runner at the end of the year becauseA) He is Fred Taylor lite when it comes to injuriesB) Rookie QB and no quality wide recieversC) Heap will get red zone looks.D) Only plays Cleveland one more time.E) His OL is not as good as other backs.Also, watching the highlights of that game, is it possible that Jamal Lewis paid off some of his friends on Cleveland? The Browns tackling would be sub-par for a High School football game.
Watch Sunday to see a repeat.
RKade
Footballguy
A) That is falseB) No quality receivers? Again, back up this statement cause it makes no sense.C) Not when JLewis keeps breaking long gains, no need for red zone to Heap looks. Also, he has the power to punch it in, unlike when he was hurt. Heap's value goes down big time.D) Did you read my earlier message on his creampuff schedule. He really only has two more tough matchups and gets to play Arizona and JAX twice just to name a few. EASY scheduleE) Not true, again another statement not trueYou obviously haven't watched him play but his highlights. It may be best to comment on things and players you actually know something about. Watch a game then get back to me.
[1] Jamal Lewis injured an ACL once .. Came back and then injured the other one.[2] Jamal Anderson - ditto[3] Edge came back last year from ACL and a once invincible back struggled with other injuries all year round.[4] Terrell Davis came back from the ACL briefly - but just kept sufferring other injuries.There are more examples; those are just a few off the top of my head ... Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Jamal Lewis WILL suffer injuries non ACL backs wouldn't ... I'm just saying the odds say he will ... He could play the next 10 years without another serious injury. Just don't bet on it.
RKade
Footballguy
Can't wait to post another similar thread when he scores the most Fantasy points this weekend. As for the examples given, EDGE looks great and Jamals injury seemed much worse. Also, TD had multiple injuries the reason why he wasn't drafted him. Those aren't the best examples because they were different and more severe.
You just aren't hearing me ... I think Jamal looks great .. And he may not get hurt at all in the next couple of years. But, if I were a betting man (and I am) - I'd put money on more leg injuries. Listen .. You could flip a coin 100 times in a row and come up all heads ... But - chances are it'll be closer to 50/50 -heads/tales.
Personally I'd list them like this:Most likely to be injured: Jamal (two bad acls)Least likely to be injured: Portis (youngest and most healthy)Priest is in the middle due to age and the hip...But hey - any one of them could get injured this year or any year .. Its a crap shoot. I just personally feel more comfortable with a player with no/little history of leg injuries (knees in particular).
I also read here that a player who had ACL surgeries on both knees is less at risk than someone who had it on 1 knee. BTW, Priest had an ACL surgery. Does he look slower the last 3 years?I think the most incredible thing that no one mentioned here is that JLEW rushed for 1300 last year after the surgery while Edge who was in the same situation struggled for 900+. Thats 1 of the reason I drafted him in all my leagues. Here's the main reasonCarTBPitt@Atl@Mia@HouThese are the only games he struggled last year. He's good 
The only concern I have is Boller/passing game
BTW, Priest had an ACL surgery. Does he look slower the last 3 years?I think the most incredible thing that no one mentioned here is that JLEW rushed for 1300 last year after the surgery while Edge who was in the same situation struggled for 900+. Thats 1 of the reason I drafted him in all my leagues. Here's the main reasonCarTBPitt@Atl@Mia@HouThese are the only games he struggled last year. He's good The only concern I have is Boller/passing gameJoshua Randall
Footballguy
Touche'.Good points, Goat Herder. You can often make a better return on your investment by standing pat through the ups and downs than you can by churning and lots of turnover.So will Jamal Lewis be a steady performer all year? Will he spike up and down based on the matchup? Will he tail off at the end of the year?Again - where is my crystal ball?
Edit: removed my signature. This ain't no WDIS post.
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RKade
Footballguy
Exactly!!!!! Nobody says a word about Priest and his ACL so why with JLEWIS? So, in a bad year, coming off major injury, you run for ~1300 yards should mean something, right? He's due for 1800 yards mimimum and will gobble the majority of TDs.Has anyone actually seen his upcoming schedule this year?@SD <<another record dayArizona twice, one being fantasy football super bowlCinn twiceJAC twiceSTLMIAMi (hey, if the texans can run on them...)Going down the stretch, last game of the season and two playoff games (one SB) he hasCINN@Oak@CLELove his matchupsI also read here that a player who had ACL surgeries on both knees is less at risk than someone who had it on 1 knee.
RKade
Footballguy
Agree as well. The whole notion of sell high and buy low is a farce. Just because someone is an all time high value doesn't mean they will fall and buying at an all time low player doesn't mean he will begin to produce.I would rather subscribe to trading marginal or a player who happens to be hot a few weeks but will most likely fall back to earth player for a player who is struggling but is proven and you believe that they will snap out of it. I would not trade for Donovan, not because he doesn't have the talent, but because he has no talent around him. Yes, he was a top FF producer last year but lets not forget about his injury. If he can't run for a lot of yards per game then why trade a top QB for him? You can win with a marginal QB but you can't win with marginal RBs.Touche'.Good points, Goat Herder. You can often make a better return on your investment by standing pat through the ups and downs than you can by churning and lots of turnover.So will Jamal Lewis be a steady performer all year? Will he spike up and down based on the matchup? Will he tail off at the end of the year?Again - where is my crystal ball?
hxperson
Footballguy
I agree with this. This is the point I was trying to make all along. My problem with this argument is not that Lewis is injury prone or has had multiple ACL tears. It is the dismissal of Portis (and, to a lesser extent, Priest Holmes) as a better back than Jamal Lewis this year based largely on the assumption that Portis will miss extensive time due to injury. As far as I know, Portis' injury is minor, is in the chest area, and will not cause him to miss this weekend's game. Portis also does not have a history of major injuries. Until this changes, using Portis' current injury as a basis to infer that he will miss a chunk of games this season is wrong. To me, he is no more likely to get injured than Jamal Lewis.
hxperson
Footballguy
What makes the injury seem major? The fact that X-rays were negative? The fact that Portis practised this week? The fact that he will play this weekend?Also, while your second point could be true, how does it help you? If knee injuries are random and happen because of bad luck, and Portis' knee is and has always been healthy, the chances of him going down due to a knee injury should be equally likely, if not less, than Jamal Lewis.Anyways, if Portis' chest injury is not going to keep him out of this week's game, and Portis' knee is at least as healthy as Lewis', why should we expect him to miss significantly more games than Lewis this season due to injuries?
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Call me dumb, but I just traded FredT and Willie Green for Jamal Lewis - to pair with Edgerrin James. I got Plex Burress for my WR2 of Chad Johnson in the deal, which improves my receiver corps. I now start Coles and Plex along with Edge and Lewis instead of Edge and Taylor with Chad and Coles. I have 2 potential top-10 RBs and two potential top-10 WRs and I gave up two RB2s to do so.Lospided? VERY, but it may be my season dominating move. BTW, I still have Kevin Faulk at RB3, so my depth isn't totally screwed and if FredT gets hurt with all the pressure, I've retained Labrandon Toefield. If JLewis and Edge stay the course, I have the best RB tandem in the league and two great receivers.I think I just traded two RBs who will finish in the 15-20 range, and be 60-70 yard, maybe a TD, type performers for a back who will be in the top-10 and will give me a lot of 100+ yard multiple TD games over the next bunch of weeks. Look at JLewis' schedule the next bunch of weeksSD KC Bye @Ari @Cin Den Jac @StL @Mia Sea SF Cin Considering he always goes off versus Cin, only the games at Miami and at home versus SF and Denver look challenging. Plus, I upgraded a potentially inconsistent CJ for a probably consistent Plex.Finally, the reason why folks are trying to trade him is that his value will never be higher than it is right now. Right now, Portis, Holmes, and JLewis are the "untouchable" backs.
SD KC Bye @Ari @Cin Den Jac @StL @Mia Sea SF Cin Considering he always goes off versus Cin, only the games at Miami and at home versus SF and Denver look challenging. Plus, I upgraded a potentially inconsistent CJ for a probably consistent Plex.Finally, the reason why folks are trying to trade him is that his value will never be higher than it is right now. Right now, Portis, Holmes, and JLewis are the "untouchable" backs.
DaveGrumbles
Footballguy
Not really interested in the argument but just wondering if I read your JLew schedule wrong...How is he possibly playing Jax and Zona twice each? I mean this is fantasy football...but that might be too much emphasis on the 'fantasy' part
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
1) Jamal Lewis has been constantly hurt from his college days until now, there is no debate there.2) Travis Taylor has some of the worst hands of any starting WR in the NFL. Marcus Robinson has not been the pro bowl player of years ago, and the same is true of Frank Sanders.3) If you are expecting him to score 20+ TDs week in and out, then I'm wasting my time using logic.4) Cleveland cut all of their starting LBs last year. Also Jacksonville is not a great matchup because of their very good defensive line, just look at how they shut down Travis Henry last week. Production wise, I know he scored 3 TDs fantasy wise, but Henry had a terrible game.5) Baltimore has the best OL in the league? News to me.
The Jerminator
Footballguy
Yeah, when the kids get all jacked up the soda pop and sugar babies their brains go south!
Here is Baltimore's Schedule the rest of the waySDKCBYE@ARI@CINDENJAX@STL@MIASEASFCIN@OAK@CLEPITAs we can see there is no JAX twice, nor is there an ARI twice, and unless your FF SB is during Week 5 you're not getting ARI for that game, in fact its PIT in Week 17!!! 
Keep trying...PORTIS 
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I had Portis number 1 before the season, but after that Cleveland game, I think Lewis and Portis are 1a and 1b.Jamal Lewis can run over you, run around you, or fake you out. That's scary. He's like an Earl Campbell. Lewis may burn out after 3 or 4 seasons of pounding like this, but during those 3 or 4 seasons, he's going to be a stud.Sorry guy, JL is a STUD but Portis will have that record (and the title of #1 RB in football) by the end of 2004, if not sooner...
I have watched Portis. He's great, but where's the moves that a number 1 back in the NFL should have like a B. Sanders, W. Payton, Dickerson, O.J. Simpson, or Gayle Sayers.
I don't see that in him. He's a hard runner, fast and runs behind a good line. This alone will get him 1500 yards and 12 td/'s. But I still don't see those exciting runs.
However, after watching Jamal Lewis, I saw a flash of that. I saw the 61 yarder that was called back and that was awesome. I just wish he'd close his mouth during the week. Calling out the record is one thing, but now telling LT2 that Ray Lewis will dominate him is over the top. If Ray Lewis wants to say something, let him. I'm sure Ray Lewis doesn't need Jamal's help in talking trash, he does a good job of it on his own.
Lewis has all the skills to kill, the offensive scheme is built around him, he has no competition for rushing yardage. Those are the makings of a top-10 - heck, a top-5 - back. Add to that his cake schedule, and he's a desirable player to have and is the first RB2 to jump into RB1 status (like Deuce did last year).But, Portis will be the #1 overall fantasy player this year.
RKade
Footballguy
Not dumb at all IMO and I have EDGE and JLewis and have dominated my two weeks (CJohn + SEA defense and Hasselbeck helps).Like I have said and you just mentioned, JLewis schedule is soooo easy.I also disagree with his value not getting any higher, I think it will only increase.Call me dumb, but I just traded FredT and Willie Green for Jamal Lewis - to pair with Edgerrin James. I got Plex Burress for my WR2 of Chad Johnson in the deal, which improves my receiver corps. I now start Coles and Plex along with Edge and Lewis instead of Edge and Taylor with Chad and Coles. I have 2 potential top-10 RBs and two potential top-10 WRs and I gave up two RB2s to do so.Lospided? VERY, but it may be my season dominating move. BTW, I still have Kevin Faulk at RB3, so my depth isn't totally screwed and if FredT gets hurt with all the pressure, I've retained Labrandon Toefield. If JLewis and Edge stay the course, I have the best RB tandem in the league and two great receivers.I think I just traded two RBs who will finish in the 15-20 range, and be 60-70 yard, maybe a TD, type performers for a back who will be in the top-10 and will give me a lot of 100+ yard multiple TD games over the next bunch of weeks. Look at JLewis' schedule the next bunch of weeks
RKade
Footballguy
made a mistake on the schdule just like all of you have made mistakes, the point still isn't getting across to you, CREAM PUFF schedule!Yeah, when the kids get all jacked up the soda pop and sugar babies their brains go south!
RKade
Footballguy
guess you never saw him play before his injury, stud then and stud now. Make sure you know who to thank when he keeps exploding and the excuses continue to pile up as to why. I'll take em and the championship with it.Sure, J. Lewis is a stud right now, but you can't make assumptions based on one game. Let's see after a few weeks if he can match Holmes and Portis
And Plummer and the Den. passing game has been SOOOO good lately, right?Look - here's the key for RB success, and it has NOTHING TO DO with the passing game:a) OL - good, healthy, and cohesive offensive line - one without a lot of injuries and one that has played together over time - see SF, Denver, KC, Baltimore and Minnesota for good examples of this and see Miami, Pittsburgh and St Lou for examples of why those running games have struggled.b) OPPORTUNITY - no other challengers for carries and offensive scheme built around the runner.c) SKILL - the talent to take advantage of the opportunties and the OL's holes.NOTHING ELSE MATTERS. Miami's passing game was horrible last year and SD's best WR (Conway) went down midway through the season, yet those two backs were insanely successful last year. Faulk was productive with a good passing game, and Priest's passing game last year was supportive - those two backs were excellent when they played. Edgerrin James had a tremendous amount of help in the passing game while he was on top of the league, and three years ago, the Bus was a stud without passing game help.Look - a team needs a passing game to WIN in the NFL, but your RB doesn't need one to WIN your fantasy football league. Finally, a dominant running game helps the passing game be successful - not the other way around.Yea and Priest last year and this year had a dominate passing team.Love how Priest gets a pass (crappy passing team, no stud WR, been hurt) but JLewis doesn't. Guess it's because the people who picked him top 1 are upset that JLewis was picked much later = much more value.
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You know, I didn't get to see him go off last week, but I did see him week 1. That was the week he had 69 yards against an average Steeler Defense. Lewis is going to face 8 & 9 in the box all year. Sometimes he will be able to beat it. Sometimes he won't & he'll end up with 50 to 60 yards. This team isn't going to score a bunch of points so if a team gets up on them, Lewis isn't going to have a huge game. A 295 yard game is once in a life time, Dillon did it against Denver & everyone was all hyped up over Dillon getting another shot at the Denver D in week 1. He ran for 280 yards last time, he should run for 280 yards this time. Yeah right. His value is higher than it will ever be this season, if you like him, keep him. If you need help in other areas it is obvious to move him. He is not a top 5 RB, but he will outperform his draft spot. If your going to trade him, do it before week 4. KC should get up on this team & take Lewis out of the game plan. Once people realize he's not running for 150 yards a game, his value goes right back to what it was during week 1.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
First, Holmes has only one good ACL, he blew one ACL in college.Second, and I am copying this from another past I made, 2 torn ACL's is not really an issue. The probablilty that you'll tear the opposite ACL after tearing the first is quite high. The concern with post-surgical athletes that are coming back from ACL tears is that they will not have the speed and lateral mobility they had prior to the injury, not that they will re-injure the knee. Repaired knees are significantly more stable than pre-surgical knees with proper rehabilitation. Since Jamal clearly has his speed and mobility, runners like Priest Holmes and Edgerrin James that have had only 1 torn ACL should be of more concern than Lewis.I'm not really concerned about Portis vs Lewis. Portis was a top 5 fantasy pick, Lewis wasn't even included in most people's top 10 RB's. Lewis will most likely be a better value pick.The real life comparison is where this gets interesting. Reading an article in the KC Star, Priest Holmes says that Lewis put him on the bench in Baltimore for a reason, he's that good.Portis vs Lewis if Lewis were a Bronco and Portis a Raven? Not even close, Lewis is the better back.
Using that logic, didn't Lewis go pro, even tho he was coming off a major injury, because he thought Henry would keep him on the bench & ruin his draft position. So nowww..Henry>Lewis>Portis=Holmes.Holmes is a good guy & had some nice words for Lewis, but Holmes was never given a chance in Baltimore. He was considered too small & once Lewis was drafted he was going to start unless he sucked. Heck Holmes almost lost his spot in KC, before he came alive about midseason of his first year there.
The key is the LBs he is facing and the OL production. JLew will not be busting off 50+ runs on a regular basis, BUUUUUUT his O-line is fully capable of sweeping aside most of the DLs JLew faces this year and he is capable of averaging 4.5 to 5.5 YPC in those games where he is not faced with a back seven that can handle the run. Again, his schedule the rest of the way
SD KC Bye @Ari @Cin Den Jac @StL @Mia Sea SF Cin @Oak @Cle Pit Denver, Jacksonville, Miami and Pittsburgh have dominant LBs and good DLs - JLew will struggle in those games. But, note, that 3 of those 4 games are in Baltimore, and it is more likely that JLew will have decent production at home versus on the road, regardless of the D.SF and Oak have decent DLs with questionable LBs - if the Baltimore OL wins the LOS battle, JLew can go off for 5+ YPC in those games, and the SF game is in Baltimore.The rest of the teams he faces have poor to horrible defensive fronts (St Lou, KC, and Seattle might develop a middle of the road defensive front by mid-season) and the Baltimore OL should have little problems against those teams.Noone is expecting another 200+ yard day from JLew this year, but I think it is clear that he will have several more 100+ yard, multiple TD games this year, and he has now shown that if the LBs do not make thier tackles, he is liable to go for a long gainer - he has burst into the open field that can mean a 30 or so yard gain, but he has now shown the skills to go house if given the open field.And that is a valid opinion, but at the time of the draft there were quotes & articles that Henry was #1 on the depth chart & that Lewis was very concerned that it would kill his draft value sitting on the bench. I also agree it is unfair to compare college to the NFL. Just like I believe it is unfair to think that Holmes was given a fair shot at the Baltimore job once Lewis was taken with a top 7 pick. If Lewis had sucked, sure, Holmes may have been given some time, but he wasn't ever given a true shot to start.
