I see.But, what does Holmes' lack of opp have to do with whether Lewis will be a top back from here on out or whether he has the skills to kill? Also, I believe you unfairly manipulated DDodds' comment. He was not saying Lewis is better than Priest - he's saying Priest acknowledges WHY he was benched in favor of Lewis - b/c Lewis is "that" good. In other words - it's not that Priest is not as good as Lewis, it is simply that Lewis is an extremely talented back (we saw that in the Super Bowl run and last week). Thus, your Henry>Lewis>Priest supposition is false.I think it is clear that Lewis has the talent, opportunity and offensive line to be a top FF rusher in the league this year, and he is very likely to have 8 or more games this year of over 100 yards and/or multiple TDs.I believe it is premature to place him in the Priest/Portis production category, but I believe it is reasonable to assume he will be a stud this year.His owners probably consider him as untouchable as the Priest/Portis owners consider their player, and he was likely the second back picked on his team. I consider myself fortunate to have traded for him because I did not vastly overpay for him and his value is very high right now. My Edge/Lewis pairing gives me two RB1s each and every week, and two guys who will very likely finish in the top-10 of RBs this year.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
There isn't a better back than JLewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RKade
- Start date
ren hoek
Footballguy
Alexander won your fantasy league for you?Wow. It seems to me that there must be two Shaun Alexanders, because the one I had last season was a complete turd on my roster. The only reason I finished 2nd was because Portis bailed his inconsistent ### out. I traded him after ten weeks to get a consistent QB (I had Culpepper at QB, pretty much in the same overrated boat as Alexander
). My bet is that he was your #2 back, because he did not deliver anything remotely resembling the consistency last season that a #1 team needs. I like to call Alexander "Corey Dillon 2".I would have been screwed last week if Alexander didn't score a touchdown, as he only had like 3 FP's off of actual rushing yards.
In response to the argument that it is not right to take away big games from certain players, I disagree completely. Alexander scored like 20% of his points for the season in one game, which pretty much left his owners screwed for the other 94% of his games. I owned him last year- I should know.
Jeez...it was sarcasm. Just like I don't put any stock into the Holmes comment about Lewis. Of course Lewis is talented. He is the prototype RB, much like Fred Taylor. I have no qualms with the Ravens going with Lewis over Holmes, it is the obvious choice. I've just read 3 pages of people saying that after 1 huge game, Lewis is now a top 5, eerrrr top 3, eeerrrr #1 RB in the league. I just disagree, he's a great RB who, after 2 games (lol) is outperforming his draft position. I will add that most of the leagues i play in award 1 point per reception, decreasing Lewis in my eyes. If he goes for 130 yards & 2 TDs against a bad SD Defense I will gladly change my mind as it will show a little consistency, which I think will be his problem. I think Boller is going to really hurt him from week to week.
You are in a pt/rec league, so I'll let most of the post slide.Scroll up for analysis by me of whether the passing game has ANYTHING AT ALL to do with a running back's fantasy value.Unless Boller forgets how to hand off, JLew will not be affected by which QB is behind center. Now, the TEAM might lose, but that is irrelevant to a discussion of JLew's fantasy value.
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
Using your logic, mcd's opinion of NFL RB's > Priest Holmes'.Now that's good.I continue to believe that Lewis is one of the most talented backs in the NFL. I traded away Edge, Ahman Green and William Green to keep him this year figuring he had the lowest perceived value for me tradewise (with exception to William Green by some) yet the highest upside. Maybe I am wrong, maybe I am right. That's the fun of the game, taking these chances before the season starts and having yourself redeemed at least early in the game. He is a good receiver if not great. Look at Lewis' yards per reception over his career and compare that to Faulk, Holmes, Tomlinson, James and whoever else you like and get back to me. You'll be surprised by the results. If Jamal were in a offense with any talent around him at QB, he'd be a top 5 back no question and rival for number one. I predicted him to end up top 5 if he makes it to 10+ TD's. There's a lot of football left, but I like what I see so far. Here's my take on August 14th..."He was 8th in the NFL last year in rushing yards, about 130 away I think from top 5. I can think of 3-4 TD's that he was a yard away from scoring, including a 75 yarder where he was knocked out at the one. I think he could easily get 10 TD's this year with a break here or there and increase his yardage to top 5 status simply becuase of his health."The year he was coming off the SB title he was a top 5 back in everyone's preseason roster prior to the knee injury. Like someone said above, if he finishes top 5 this year he'll be a top 5 back next season (pretty funny comment I think but true of how "last year's" numbers truly drive "next year's" rankings). He left college because of top 10 money as he's said many times. Look at Deuce McAllister splitting time as a senior in college and why some believe Portis left Miami. College and NFL are both football but light years apart. I have no beef with Portis, I live in Denver and I think he's an awesome back for the Broncos. I was shredded last year on these boards for picking him to finish with 1400-1600 rushing yards and 12 TD's. I could be wrong on Jamal, but I really like him this season so I'll stand by what I said long before week 1.
FAA's WIFE
Footballguy
Lewis is not better than Portis, whoever said that...Besides the fact that they are opposites in style, making a comparison difficult at best -- we haven't even seen the best of Portis, yet.
DDodds you are a classic.OK, I'll play - based on this logic, DDodds' opinions of opinions > mcd's opinions of opinions.JK.I hope the bulk of your post is right on because, as I mentioned earlier, I just made a blockbuster trade in one league (WGreen, FTaylor and Chad Johnson FOR Plex and JLew) on a prediction that JLew ends top-10 in a consistent fashion while the other two backs mentioned end in the 15-20 range in a very inconsistent fashion. I also upgraded receiver consistency as Plex has top-5 possibilities while CJ may be plagued by inconsistency (though I project CJ to finish in the 10-15 WR range).In all, I think there are a few more talented NFL backs than JLew, but he rises above almost every other back in the league on raw talent alone.
P.S. - I just saw a snippet of an interview with JLew that will air tomorrow on CBS' pre-game show regarding his record setting performance. He said it was like the other players were moving in slow motion while he was moving at full speed.Only a few backs have said this before - I've heard Faulk and Barry Sanders talk about that concept, and Priest discussed before last year how being able to follow his o-linemen's footwork created a situation where he could "out-quick" defenders.The best analogy I can think of for this concept is an interview I saw once with Michael Jordan where he is talking about what he sees when he is "in the zone" near the end of games - he said that the basket looks like it becomes a huge wide open bucket.Certain athletes, when in "the zone," are playing at an even higher level than the professional athletes around them. JLew seems to have this - and don't forget that practicing versus one of the best defenses in the league prepares him for performing well against even the best opposing defenses.
I dont think you can compare KC and Denver passing attacks to Baltimore's right now. Baltimore doesnt have as many weapons and the reason Plummer didnt put up good numbers yet is because he didnt have to as his team had comfortable leads in both games. Same goes for whoever mentioned Miami last year. When Fiedler went down and lucas took over, Ricky had the worst stretch of the season. The passing attack needs to be a little respectable to keep defenses honest. If you think that Boller's and Redman's production will be 'Lucas like' than maybe you should trade Lewis.
I'm sure he has said that many times...after he was drafted. That said, it was a big shock when he went #5 to the Ravens. A quote from Gary Horton from a draft magazine that was published that year:<Could be a stretch in first round but has all the skills if he can get back to form as a runner. Hesitancy to cut loose has drastically changed effectiveness. If he fully rehabs shoulder & mentally gets over knee injury, could emerge as top back in this class.>Lewis was pegged to go at 43 in their mock draft. Lewis had not been healthy for 2 seasons (knee in 98, shoulder in 99) & had huge question marks. While I do remember him moving up the draft boards as the draft got closer, Lewis was thought of as no higher than a late 1st rounder when he declared for the draft. The espn guys were suprised/shocked when Lewis went before Jones & Alexander.To end this arguement, I like Lewis, liked him in preseason & still like him. I don't think he is a top 5, top 3 or #1 RB in the league.
Once again - see earlier posts regarding RB efficiency in relation to the passing game.The passing game needs a minimum of respectability (which Travis Taylor and Heap grant), but the passing game doesn't need to be a threat for the running back to perform well.Like I mentioned - Chambers was not playing well, so there were no receiving threats in Miami all year long while Ricky was running wild and, after Conway went down, the Brees' attack had no threatening receivers, but LT was still putting up numbers.Lewis is a good receiver and when the passing game is sputtering, the outlet to the back is used, thus it actually HELPS the RBs fantasy numbers, rather than hurts them.The Lucas analogy is horrible - the entire team crumbled during that stretch, but here are Ricky's numbers during that time (rush yards/receiving yards/total TDs):97/22/047/23/053/36/0102/28/2143/8/2228/7/2 (Lucas started, Fiedler came in in the 4th)Looks like even with Lucas at the helm, Ricky averaged over 100 total yards and produced multiple TDs after an adjustment period to the Lucas-led team.
The ESPN guys are not NFL scouts, and they are not on the inside of the information that agents uncover in researching what their clients might make and where they might go in the draft if they declare themselves eligible for the NFL.Given Lewis' injuries, and the fact that he woud go in the first round of the NFL draft, staying in college would have been a mistake.
Thanks for posting the numbers to prove my point. I see 3 bad games (his worst stretch of the season) and 3 good ones. Thats not good enough from the most productive guy in the league. Unless you are saying that Lucas is not responsible for that crumble, how exactly is it a a horrible analogy?If Boller plays like Lucas as he did last week, Lewis will not score consistently and Heap will be as good as any TE
FAA's WIFE
Footballguy
I just puked.I guess arm tackles can help you get to the supreme "JLew" zone even faster... 
This has gone too far.Whaaaaa?Are you BLIND? Exactly how do these games make your point? In game one under Lucas, he had over 100 yards combined yardage, but was denied the end zone. In games 2, he had only 14 carries. In game 3 he had only 20 carries. In EVERY Game that Ricky had less than 21 carries - including games under Fiedler, he had poor yardage production. In the next three games under Lucas, he AVERAGED over 25 carries, over 150 yards, and exactly 2 TDs. Under LUCAS.I am saying Lucas was not responsible for the lapse - like I said, the ENTIRE TEAM crumbled after Fiedler went down. It was not the lack of a passing game that killed Ricky those two worst weeks - it was the lack of offense PERIOD. The D crumbled, Ricky was kept off the field, he did not have OPPORTUNITY. He did not have good OL play. These are crucial things that drive a back's success.OK, yeah, fine, I will assume that JLew will have numbers similar to Ricky's under Lucas while Boller is under center - I'll take an average of 112 yards and a TD a game from my RB1, but if that's not good enough for you, then fine - I guess I'll be the only one starting an 1800 yard, 16 TD rusher who is on a team with a poor passing offense.
So scoring a touchdown every other game is ok? You wont win with consistency like that. You are missing my point so I'll make it clearer this time.Terrible passing game = Team struggles in many games = Inconsistant RB production = Dillon. Scoring 0 touchdowns in 3 games was extremely unricky like. With that being said, I hope Baltimore's pass attack will be decent and JLEW will be huge since I own him in all my leagues (Not by accident, I targeted him, see my first post here why)
Last edited by a moderator:
LAUNCH
Footballguy
http://footballguys.net/forum/index.php?ac...=12863&hl=jamalIf you wouldn't take your own advice and contradict yourself now, how can we take you seriously?
LAUNCH
Dave Dodson
Footballguy
Well if Gary Horton and the guys from ESPN were shocked then who am I to argue lol
We can argue about this forever, but to me Jamal Lewis is a better running back than Clinton Portis and I live in Denver and have Bronco's season tickets. As a fantasy football player, Portis has a much better offense around him so I feel has has a chance to be a better fantasy star. As a football player, Lewis is better in my opinion. I can't think of 5 RB's that are more talented than Jamal Lewis in the NFL right now as football players, so he's certainly in my top 5.Dave Dodson
Footballguy
3 Quick Points...1) It's not Dodds but very close
2) I was laughing a little about the fact that his didn't value Preist's opinion of Lewis. Of course I think my opinion is better, he should feel the same way3) I hope I am right too 
Good luck Sunday
RKade
Footballguy
DD I really like you posts and feel you are the only other person who really sees the value in JLewis. I still laugh when over and over people say that JL will be stopped or last week was a fluke or that he will get injured again. You can make more arguments against Priest but people have blinders on when it comes to him.My simple message post was that IMO There isn't a better back than JL this year, period. You can already see Priest breaking down, Faulk hasn't done anything since early last seaon, etc.I haven't seen one reply that is valid enough to disprove what I believe in and after this weekend, I am very curious to see more excuses (fluke, going against another bad team, etc) come rolling in.
LAUNCH
Footballguy
Seems like this would say directly to me that prior to "you" drafting him that "you" were telling everyone not to draft him. One ACL injury at Tennessee and one in Baltimore seems to fit right into this window. This is how you were wrong about Jamal and this is how you contradicted yourself.
Seems to me like you were handing out these nuggets of knowledge, but when it came to your draft you grabbed him, he did well, and now your touting him like he's the next Jim Brown and you were predicting it all along.I think J-Lew is a great back, but including this year he has a total of 16 TD's and Portis had 17 last year alone. Priest Holmes has about a 3rd of Jamals career TD's locked up in 2 games this year.
LAUNCH
RKade
Footballguy
Sorry but you must have read it incorrectly, re-read the whole thing again. I picked him up and was estatic because I picked him 2.4. I don't just randomly pick up players hoping they will produce, maybe that is your style...That other post was about drafting top first round picks in that who you should and should not draft because of many factors and why many make mistakes. I draft for value so while I think JLewis is the best back to come out this year, IF I had a top 5 pick, I couldn't draft him out of value and HOPE he would fall to me in the second. I picked much later than the top part of the draft. :wacko: You may want to go back and read EVERYTHING I had to say before commenting, good advice and free, no?
Then, anything you don't understand or need clarification on, I can help you out.
LAUNCH
Footballguy
Yes, this wasn't Tolstoy. The first message was titled "Top 5 Injury Risks for 2003" and not about "drafting top first round picks in that who you should and should not draft because of many factors and why many make mistakes." You just added in that part and forgot to mention the man that you now think is the best back, Jamal Lewis. It's ok to change your mind, it is just fun to call people out around this time every year when they come out with "X" player is the best at his position or I knew "Y" player was a bust even though everyone else had him listed as a top 2 guy.Sorry but you must have read it incorrectly, re-read the whole thing again. I picked him up and was estatic because I picked him 2.4. I don't just randomly pick up players hoping they will produce, maybe that is your style...
That other post was about drafting top first round picks in that who you should and should not draft because of many factors and why many make mistakes. I draft for value so while I think JLewis is the best back to come out this year, IF I had a top 5 pick, I couldn't draft him out of value and HOPE he would fall to me in the second. I picked much later than the top part of the draft.
:wacko: You may want to go back and read EVERYTHING I had to say before commenting, good advice and free, no?
Then, anything you don't understand or need clarification on, I can help you out.
That's the beauty of these forums. If you print it and it works against you it's going to come back to bite.
LAUNCH
The last time I looked when I watched Jamal's feat/feet last Sun. he was wearing the #31. There was no "S" on his chest, or no cape on his back. He might finish in the top 5, but that will be no given. He does not have the talent around him other top featured backs have, but I do believe he has the individual talent. 
I own him in two leagues, and wish I felt like He was "DA' MAN" as so many others feel. If I thought I could get an equal RB and a good WR for him....I'd probably trade him myself.
I own him in two leagues, and wish I felt like He was "DA' MAN" as so many others feel. If I thought I could get an equal RB and a good WR for him....I'd probably trade him myself.
RKade
Footballguy
Of course if I could get an equal RB and good WR I would make that trade as well. Just saying there isn't a better back than JLew. Will he break 150 yards today????The last time I looked when I watched Jamal's feat/feet last Sun. he was wearing the #31. There was no "S" on his chest, or no cape on his back. He might finish in the top 5, but that will be no given. He does not have the talent around him other top featured backs have, but I do believe he has the individual talent.
RKade
Footballguy
Apparantly you don't get it. You say you do then your reply suggests other wise. Oh well can't get through to all people.Yes, this wasn't Tolstoy. The first message was titled "Top 5 Injury Risks for 2003" and not about "drafting top first round picks in that who you should and should not draft because of many factors and why many make mistakes." You just added in that part and forgot to mention the man that you now think is the best back, Jamal Lewis. It's ok to change your mind, it is just fun to call people out around this time every year when they come out with "X" player is the best at his position or I knew "Y" player was a bust even though everyone else had him listed as a top 2 guy.Sorry but you must have read it incorrectly, re-read the whole thing again. I picked him up and was estatic because I picked him 2.4. I don't just randomly pick up players hoping they will produce, maybe that is your style...
That other post was about drafting top first round picks in that who you should and should not draft because of many factors and why many make mistakes. I draft for value so while I think JLewis is the best back to come out this year, IF I had a top 5 pick, I couldn't draft him out of value and HOPE he would fall to me in the second. I picked much later than the top part of the draft.
:wacko: You may want to go back and read EVERYTHING I had to say before commenting, good advice and free, no?
Then, anything you don't understand or need clarification on, I can help you out.
That's the beauty of these forums. If you print it and it works against you it's going to come back to bite.
LAUNCH
ttiger72
Footballguy
You obviously haven't looked at the stats correctly. 15 carries 69 yards = 4.6YPC not too bad if you ask me!Give him 25-30 touches a game and you will see him in the 120+ put 8 in the box 9 in the box or 10 doens't matter. Balt has a very very good O Line, which is how JLew will get his yards this year.The only problem is when Balt gets behind early and big as they did agaisn't Pitt JLew looses carry. That's what hurt JLew, not a poor perfromance. Look at the picture, the whole one, not the little parts you seemed to have with the Pitt analysis.JLew is a solid #2/low #1 IMHO, and will continue this week agaisnt a very weak SD D!!!BTW I have him as my #2 to Portis with my #3 as S Davis......
RKade
Footballguy
You know, TTiger, you bring up a great point that I have not given too much though about, what if they get down big? It will destroy his chance for a big day. Look at LT so far for example. The big difference though in SD than BALT is : DEFENSEI can't really see where BALT will be down 14 points say early in a game. Their defense is very strong. Of course, their QB could hurt them but then again, in their SB winning year, their QB wasn't GREAT. I think BALT has a boring but effective plan, don't let their QB gun it out and hurt them. Play tough Dee, run the ball like he** and have a solid special teams. Looks like they are on the right tract so far and again I really see JLewis having the kind of year that will make him an auto top 4 RB in next year's FF leagues. Time will only tell, won't it? 
RKade
Footballguy
Since you all doubt me, let's have a nice recap:Outplayed PriestTHenry: hurt/bust so farPortis: hurt/can't stay in gamesLT: nice game but not better than JLewDeuceMcAlly: decent game but not better at this point than JLewAGreen: could hace a nice game but will you be shocked when he gets hurt?Edge: hurtLook, I know I am still tooting my own horn but for the people who ripped me here, it's really time to step up and take it like a man and ADMIT I am right on this and there is not another back you would rather have.
glumpy
breeze
I'm in line with the "Jamal top 5" camp--got him in both my money leagues as my #2--at pick 2.05 in a 10-team, and as my #1 keeper counting against 3.05 in a 12-team!At this point he's outproducing both my #1's--Alexander in one and Edge in the other. I figure Baltimore will run it no matter the odds--it's a total about-face for Billick from Minnesota gameplans.
I figure Baltimore will run it no matter the odds--it's a total about-face for Billick from Minnesota gameplans.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
RKade-It's pretty easy to predict great things after a guy breaks the single game rushing record, but, as Launch pointed out, you are patting yourself on the back after you gave advice to avoid players like Lewis in the first rounds...
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Lewis AND Moss AND Ahman AND McNair owner. Life is good.
I think he starts seeing some rest in a few weeks, or starts feeling worn down, and doesn't reach the magical 2K this year.I give him 1998 - he has 2G for a play and then gets hit for a loss, just to mess up the 2K prediction. 
Seriously, getting to 2K is REALLY hard when you factor in how much running he has to do over the season. The record setting day aside, Jamal generally gets his yardage 4-5 yards at a time. That really wears you down.
Seriously, getting to 2K is REALLY hard when you factor in how much running he has to do over the season. The record setting day aside, Jamal generally gets his yardage 4-5 yards at a time. That really wears you down.I am a Lewis believer, but I just traded him and Eric Moulds for R. Moss. With A. Green and M. Faulk (plus M. Bennett on my bench), I felt I could make the trade for an improvement in point production. We get 1 point per reception, so Moss is scoring about 6 points a game more than Jamal.With Redman starting at QB now, I look for Jamal's stats to go down slightly.
Eric Stratton
Footballguy
That is about the number of times you were hooked in the Brett Favre HOF thread!
The Natural
Footballguy
:rotflmao: :domer:That is about the number of times you were hooked in the Brett Favre HOF thread!
*Lewis has averaged 104ypg over the last 5 games.*In order to crack 2,000 - he'll need to average 127ypg for the final 5 games
With BAL right in the hunt for the division title, I don't see Billick force feeding Lewis towards the end of the year if they beat CIN in week 14. I see him finishing with slightly over 1,800 yards rushing.
Spike
Footballguy
I wonder if some of the people who are trading him are doing so in dynasty and/or keeper leagues figuring that with the large number of carries he's getting, he might be a lesser back next year, a la Ricky Williams this year.Jamal IS on pace for 424 carries and massive numbers of carries seem to result in sort of a "hangover year" the next season.
RKade
Footballguy
Don't know since I'm not in a keeper or dynasty league but I wonder with Baltimore having a great passing game last week will it be a one week thing or something that will become more common down the road? This can only help JLewis IMO if that's the case. The guy in terms of toughness is second to none.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Are you insane? If they remain in the division hunt, that's EXACTLY what Billick will do. What else would he do? In week 16, they play Cleveland, who Jamal shreds. THe same Cleveland team thats been pretty good in pass defense except for one game (KC). So, Billick's going to take the ball out of the hands of his stud, and turn it over to the passing game? Uh, no...HERD
