timschochet said:
The electoral college never occurred as an issue for me until 2000. In that year we were faced with the following fact (for the first time? I'm not sure): more people in this country voted for Al Gore than they did for George Bush. Yet, George Bush was elected due to the electoral college. Now this bothered a lot of people who felt that the outcome was undemocratic. They were right; it WAS undemocratic, but of course that's not necessarily a bad thing.
But even if you consider it to be a bad thing, it seems to me that for such a thing to happen, the popular voting and the electoral voting must be very close anyhow. I'm no expert at this, but I don't think you can come up with a mathematical formula where somebody wins the electoral college decisively, yet loses the popular vote decisively. That shouldn't ever happen, right? So long as it stays very close in such rare situations, I don't think anyone has to worry about the outcome being illegitimate (though some progressives treated it as exactly that).
Wasn't the first time. It's happened 7 times in our history that the EC has become the central story in the election.
In 1800 we had the Jefferson Burr election. They torched their opposition so they were going to be the President and Vice President. The problem was who was who. The House went through 36 ballots before Jefferson ultimately got the top spot. The political games of the Federalists played a role in the confusion because knowing they were going to lose the started trying to deny Jefferson the top - and everyone knew that when they were voting Jefferson was the top of the ticket guy for the most part. Alexander Hamilton finally pulled off some backroom stuff with his Federalists and gave the final ballot to Jefferson. Burr never forgave Hamilton for that and other slights and eventually challenged him to a duel that ended with Hamilton being killed and destroying Burr's career and reputation. The result of the chaos of 1800 led to the 12th Amendment.
In 1824 Andrew Jackson beat John Quincy Adams by 30,00 votes. But since 4 men actually got EC votes there was no majority to give Jackson the win. Henry Clay, who was 4th in the EC, got dropped out of the process by the House when the election was thrown to them. Clay and Adams came up with the deal where Adams would get Clay's support and Clay would get, ultimately, the Secretary of State position which at the time was seen as the clear step anyone had to take before being President. With Clay's support Adams finally won the election and Jackson was furious. This is the "corrupt bargain" that Jackson used to win the next election. You can determine for yourself if this was a problem that the EC created or not. Jackson clearly wasn't supported by the majority of the country or he would have won. He lost votes to Clay and William Crawford and couldn't condense the support from those factions. For a tangential debate - put Jackson in a parlimentary system that so many people on this board debate for - the need to bring different factions together to get a majority in leadership. Jackson couldn't do that but Adams could. Adams was the better party leader and better politician, and there was some doubt in many circles that Jackson would be a good President. This specific election is very much our version of a parlimentary system and we worked without our system to get a Constitutional outcome. Adams became President. For 4 years. Then Jackson destroyed him in the next election becoming the hero of the people against the old fashioned traditional power party politics that he accused Adams of representing.
Also in 1824 not all the states had yet held elections for the electors. Some were still having them appointed by the state legislature. Another unique little part of that election.
In 1836, Martin Van Buren won both the popular and electoral college but the Whig party tried to circumvent the popular vote and focus on the EC by running several candidates in different regions with the hopes that Van Buren wouldn't be able to get a majority of the EC and have the vote thrown to the House where the Whigs had a majority. It didn't work obviously. The idea of trying to end run the system by doing something like that never happened again. The EC held its place and the system flourished.
In 1872 - just a fun year - Grant beat Horace Greeley in a landslide, but Greeley did get some EC votes. The problem was that Greeley died in between the casting of the votes and the official counting of the votes, so there was no precedent for what to do with his votes. The EC eventually split his votes around some people though it didn't matter as Grant had won anyway.
In 1876 we had the most difficult election in our history up until 2000. Sam Tilden beat Rutherford Hayes in the popular vote by about 300,000 votes. The Republicans supprting Hayes came up with a plan to contest the EC votes of several states before they were counted. (Sound familiar?) I had to look it up but there were 20 contested EC votes. In order to win the Presidency Tilden only needed 1 and Hayes needed all 20. Since there had never been anything like this happen with the contest of so many EC Votes and the election hanging in the balance, the parties agreed to setup a bipartisan commision to review the EC Votes - the 19th century version of the hanging chads review. The Commission had 5 Congressmen, 5 Senators and 5 Justices of the Supreme Court. It was supposed to be a 7/7 party split with one "impartial" member. They were naive of course. The independent guy actually won election to the Senate before the commission started so he removed himself and with the House and Senate now controlled by the Republicans and within the rules that the parties set up for the commission, the republicans appointed the 15th member from their ranks giving them a majority on the commission. Every vote on each contested EC vote went along party lines 8-7. Hayes got all 20 votes. Hayes won the Presidency.
The Democrats threatened to fillibuster the Senate forever and shut down the government permanently as a result and there were weeks of backroom meetings to try to come up with a way to make Hayes President and keep the Democrats happy. The deal that came up with was very much a sell your soul deal - the Democrats agreed to not stand in the way of Hayes and Hayes agreed to remove all federal troops from the south thereby ending Reconstruction and throwing into termoil race relations that came to a head in the 1960's. Hayes also agreed to not execute the laws that were enacted to give blacks equal voting rights, and with that came everything that we have discussed here about poll taxes and whatnot in the south during the early part of the 20th century. Here the EC did it's job and the House did theirs, but in doing their job they played pretty typical political games with each other. This was the most dangerous election the EC ever became a highlight part of until 2000.
In 1888, Ben Harrison lost the popular vote to President Cleveland by a margin of less than 1%. But in doing that, Harrison actually won small majorities in certain more important states and got blown out in ones that he wasn't going to win anyway. The result of that gameplan was that he actually won the majority of the EC without it even going to the House. His political handlers were geniuses. Cleveland of course came back the next election and beat Hayes.
And then we have 2000. I'm not reviewing that. Gore won the popular vote by less than a margin that Cleveland did over Harrison in 1888 and this time, instead o like 1872 when they worked together and formed a commission every level of government was thrown into chaos, focused on Florida and stupid people arguing that they didn't understand their ballot. Of course, my personal argument there is that if you can't understand the ballot I don't want you voting for any elective office, but I wasn't on the Supreme Court to make that argument when the time came - although Scalia had to be thinking that. The 2000 crisis ended the way we all know it ended. And Al Gore deserves a lot of credit for finally ending it and not keeping it going the way many wanted. He doesn't get enough respect for that. Though from a purely political karma point of view - he lost his home state where he was known the best to people. He wins his home state and none of this was an issue. So.... you know...
So, in the history of our elections for President. 44 different elections over 250 years there have been exactly 4 times where the popular vote and the EC didn't match and a 5th time with Jefferson and Burr where that wasn't even the issue and the Constitution was amended after that one anyway. 4 out of 44. 9% of the time the EC and popular vote haven't matched up. And in each of those times the difference in popular vote was right around or less than 1% of the total popular vote - meaning within any standard measure of a margin of error. So statistically speaking solely there has never been a problem with the EC at all. But we don't look at it that way. And you can make the argument that in those 4 elections the resulting fights had very little to do with what the EC was originally reated for anyway and that was to temper the popular vote against the republican nature of the government. Instead, what happens is political parties take to their mastheads and fight for power, not republicanism in the form the Constitution demands.
The argument against the EC in this context only is easy to state though - if the end result of the system is that statistically speaking the popular vote wins anyway, why do we need the EC? It's functionaly obsolete. It's just one more point where power brokers can screw up the system and it's a solution without a problem. In that, the argument is functionally correct. It really is in that respect a solution to a problem that doesn't exist. Save for the fact that the President is not a democratically elected office, its a republican office. Theory over substance. Jefferson over Adams. The one and probably only time I fall on the Jeffersonian line of the argument that the theory is more important in this case. But when you look at actual numbers and history the EC is really almost functionally useless.
But then if you sit down and look at the Jackson Adams election you see why it is there. Even though Jackson won the popular vote
over Adams, the fact remains that he didn't enjoy the support of the majority of the popular vote as it was recorded becaue of two other people running. In that respect, the EC did a great job of creating a result that we want - if there is no majority then the House needs to mediate the issue and there is a level of oversight from the simple aspect of the guy with the most votes winning because the most votes might not represent the majority. Then we debate the parlimentary aspect of that result. Rebuttal to that is we are focusing, then, on the benefits of a system that showed it's one and only really truly useful purpose almost 200 years ago. It's a fun argument.
As to your last point - we need focus on that for a minute. You say - correctly by the way - that there is no mathematical formula for a candidate to overwhelmingly win the popular vote and then overwhelming lose the electoral vote. This is true. There is no way possible - at the moment. But there is a way. And that is because of the states. The EC is based on the states and their seats in Congress. California has 55 EC votes. New York has 29. Texas has 38, Florida has 29, Illnois has 20, Ohio has 18 and Pennsylvania has 20. Those are, for all intents and purposes our major city population centers as well - meaning that the populations of those states dwarf most of the others. In total those 7 states control 209 Electoral College votes. 270 is the number you need to hit. Look at the population numbers:
California - 39 million
Texas - 26 million
Florida - 19 million
New York - 19 million
Illinois - 12 million
Pennsylvania - 12 million
Ohio - 12 million
With 318 million people roughly, those states represent 139 million people. The other states combined have 179 million. 7 states make up almost 44% of our population. Given voting trends and legal requirements not every one of those people can or will vote obviously. There were about 125 million votes cast for President in 2012. You can easily come up with a scenario where Candidate A wins those 7 states by an overwhelming majority of votes - like 3 or 4 to 1 but loses all the other states closely - say with 5%. With only 40% of the people voting, for the President, you get 56 million votes out of those 7 states. Give someon 75 % of those votes or 42 million votes and you only need about another 20 million votes from the rest of the states to get a "clear majorty" of the popular vote. That's only 11% of the other states. Extrapolate that out. A candidate could get 75% of the vote in the 7 big states and only 11% of the votes in the other 43 states and get to a popular vote total that equals what Obama got in 2012 - and that candidate would lose the EC by a count of 329 to 209 - which is a landslide in the EC. That same candidate could get 75 % of the big 7 and 48% of the other 43, dwarf his opponent in the popular the likes of which a Madden game has never seen and still loose the EC by a landslide.
All this to say that the vision of the EC was to ensure that the minority was not destroyed by the majority. Sure, the popular vote would be overwhelming in that case (and look, my number might be off a little I don't care you see where I am going for the point) Do we want 7 states to control this country - and it be those 7 states? Maybe. Maybe not. But if those 7 states control the office of the President without all the other theoretical stuff we have talked about, what happens is that in a nutshell, because of the economies of scale, you have 7 major cities running the nation and with it you destroy the fabric of the republic. You could certainly argue they already do this, but they don't. Who are some of the most powerful people in Senate right now? Mitch McConnell? He's from Kansas. Harry Ried is from Nevada. Heck, Joe Biden is from Delaware. John Thune is from a fricken Dakota. But in the House the leadership is mainly from the big 7 states. We see the difference in how the chambers have internal leadership. In the popular branch, the big 7 have the most power. But in the other branch that is a mess structuraly they still have the balance of different regions from the big 7 in leadership positions. I think this is a big deal. Don't we want a system where the Senate Majority leader can be from Kansas? Why does he always have to come from California or New York? There is a hell of alot of country in between those states.
tl;dr - the EC works, 2000 wasn't the only problem, and tim's hatred of a Delaware Senator doesn't think through the true consequences.