timschochet's thread- Mods, please move this thread to the Politics Subforum, thank you (1 Viewer)

[jon_mx]

I'd like some honest opinions about climate change here. Please tell me why the next President and Congress should not impose some sort of carbon tax in order to reduce our emissions by 5-7%, which is what the world is demanding and what the majority of scientists say is the minimum necessary to prevent catastrophic consequences from becoming inevitable.

These scientists tell us that NOW is the moment to save our children and grandchildren to be; otherwise it will be too late. That's their argument, not mine, but I'm asking why we shouldn't heed their warnings?

Some thoughts, in no particular order of importance. There are probably lots of other good reasons.

1. Are all other countries also reducing by 5-7%? If not, why hamstring our own economy relative to theirs?

2. Haven't these same scientists cried wolf before?

3. Creating a carbon tax likely encourages more fracking, a practice that I consider far more dangerous to the environment and our health.

Well China has passed us in emissions and is scheduled to increase their emissions by another 300-400%. Obama agreed thought that was awesome so he signed an agreement allowing them to increase unlimited for about the next 20 years. So even if the US reduced emissions to zero, the world is still doomed.

Regarding the bolded, you have made the same assertion several times now in this forum. I try to read a lot on this subject and I haven't read anywhere that China is planning unlimited increases in emissions for the next 20 years. In fact, everything I read is just the opposite: that they're committed to a 5% reduction. So I'm curious what your sources are.

I have linked you to articles and posted them at least three times in the global warming thread on this topic, so I am curious why you haven't read them. I will try one more time. Here is an article in the New York Times, which is a reliable source of information.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/12/world/asia/climate-goals-pledged-by-us-and-china-2.html

Emissions goals: China's pledge Plan to have carbon dioxide emissions peak 'around 2030'. Mr Xi said his country would curtail carbon dioxide emissions so that they would peak "around 2030". Mr. Obama pledged that the United States would cut emissions by at least 26 percent from 2005 levels.

It is pretty clear English, but let's explain that in simpler terms. China pledged to have no limits. They only pledged to peak at some unspecified level by around 2030. Current projections have China peaking around 14-15 billion metric tons sometime around 2025-2030, which in 2000 China only produced around 3 billion tons. That will be a 500% increase from 2000 levels. See the graph posted in article. There is no commitment to a 5% reduction. What you have read, and apparently not understood, is that China did have a 5% reduction in emissions in the first quarter of this year. That was mostly due to China's huge economic recession, perhaps you read about that. But even with China's recent downturn, it is only temporary. As the article you saw in the Global Warming thread, it is really hopeless without a more serious commitment from China.

 

[timschochet]

Jon, I think your interpretation of both the article in question and the agreement itself is wrong, but I don't know enough about the issues to prove it to you. All I can say is that I have watched more than one scientist and environmental expert on CNN and elsewhere praise this agreement as a step in the right direction for China. I haven't seen anyone express the skepticism that you have expressed.

However, even if you're right, I simply will not accept the argument that "China is doing nothing so we shouldn't either." I am interested in exploring some of the investments that Flapjacks and others were talking about in the global warming thread. But I also strongly believe this nation needs to show leadership and reduce our emissions.

 

[krista4]

I think I'm being scammed here. We feed our cat regular Meow Mix, and have for several years. Lately she's started throwing up from time to time, mostly hairballs. My wife decided to take her to the vet. They did a bunch of tests which cost me $600!!! That was the first scam. Now they're saying she's developed an allergy and that we have to buy this special kind of food that is 5 times the cost of Meow Mix.

My wife swears by this vet but this is costing me a lot of money...

Jesus, do not feed your cat Meow Mix. That's just awful stuff. Do you feed your kids Spaghetti Os for every meal?

ETA: $600 for tests on a vomiting cat does seem outrageous, though.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Don't listen to krista. She's a total cat food snob.

 

[krista4]

Don't listen to krista. She's a total cat food snob.

Don't you have some mediumest Americans to be ranking?

 

[ScottNorwood]

96. Tim's Veterinarian

 

[krista4]

96. Tim's Veterinarian

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I thought it was gonna be whoever was responsible for building his keyboard

 

[jon_mx]

Jon, I think your interpretation of both the article in question and the agreement itself is wrong, but I don't know enough about the issues to prove it to you. All I can say is that I have watched more than one scientist and environmental expert on CNN and elsewhere praise this agreement as a step in the right direction for China. I haven't seen anyone express the skepticism that you have expressed.

However, even if you're right, I simply will not accept the argument that "China is doing nothing so we shouldn't either." I am interested in exploring some of the investments that Flapjacks and others were talking about in the global warming thread. But I also strongly believe this nation needs to show leadership and reduce our emissions.

Could you source some of this and what exactly they said. If they said anything close to what you characterized, they are 100 percent full of crap. China has never come even remotely close to promising to cut anything. The games they talk is 'cutting' their emissions as a percentage of GDP, which just means their emissions will go up just not quite as fast as their economy grows. It is very similar to the Democrats who would call out the GOP for cutting Medicare and social security when all they were really doing is cutting the rate of growth from 8% down to 6%. It is still growing rather strongly. China right now produces 30% of the global emissions of CO2 and cuts are not even on the table. That is why those who know and are honest about it, are pretty hopeless that anything meaningful will result with China and India growing like they are.

Really, the article I posted was very clear and straight-forward. There was no interpretation on my part.

 

[timschochet]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

 

[jon_mx]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Nothing in that article remotely refutes anything I said. Certainly China is finally getting on board with fighting real pollution, because in most major Chinese cities you can not even go outside and breath. Real pollution is a major issue that China needs to address and they see global warming as a way of gaining partnerships to clean up their air. They may have a secondary result in curbing their greenhouse gases, but that does not change the fact that China is still going to continue to increasing the amount of CO2 they put into the atmosphere until at least 2025. There is nothing in the article which states China has agreed to cut their current levels of greenhouse gases. There is a good chance that technology may improve more rapidly than planned, and China will do better than current projection. But as of right now, projections have China increasing to a level of around 14+ billion metric tons of CO2 per year.

 

[Shula-holic]

When Elvis comes back, he'll show why he was the King.

If Elvis isn't alive, why is it that you can rearrange the letters in his name to spell LIVES?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Have you seen the smog in Beijing & China this week?

Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill

Just look at the pictures.

That's reality.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Wow one of Hillary's campaign spokesmen is calling for internment camps for muslims.

Why hasn't Hillary repudiated him yet? When does she denounce him?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3354779/Now-Hillary-campaign-accused-Islamophobia-Liberal-groups-say-military-supporter-Wesley-Clark-bad-Trump-calling-disloyal-Americans-interred.html

 

[Gawain]

Meow Mix is absolute garbage. I'm with Krista. It'd be like feeding your kids sawdust meatloaf or gefilte goldfish.

If the first two ingredients aren't some type of meat, put the food back. There's at least acceptable level of cat food in grocery stores these days.

Chicken By-product Meal, Brewers Rice, Corn Gluten Meal, Ground Yellow Corn, Soybean Meal, Beef Tallow (Preserved with Mixed Tocopherols), Ocean Fish Meal, Animal Digest, Salmon Meal, Turkey By-product Meal, Calcium Carbonate, Phosphoric Acid, Choline Chloride, Potassium Chloride, Vitamins [Vitamin E Supplement, Niacin Supplement, Vitamin A Supplement, D-Calcium Pantothenate, Thiamine Mononitrate (Source of Vitamin B1), Riboflavin Supplement (Source Of Vitamin B2), Pyridoxine Hydrochloride (Source of Vitamin B6), Menadione Sodium Bisulfite Complex (Source of Vitamin K Activity), Vitamin D3 Supplement, Folic Acid, Biotin, Vitamin B12 Supplement], Taurine, Minerals [Ferrous Sulfate (Source of Iron), Zinc Oxide, Manganous Oxide, Copper Sulfate, Calcium Iodate, Sodium Selenite], L-Lysine, Red 40, Dl-Methionine, Yellow 5, Blue 2, Rosemary Extract.

Yum?

We've been giving our cat this.

Fish Broth, Tuna, Chicken, Liver, Dried Egg Product, Potato Starch, Mackerel, Carrots, Natural Flavor, Guar Gum, Sodium Phosphate, Tricalcium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Salt, Taurine, Choline Chloride, Thiamine Mononitrate, Ferrous Sulfate, Vitamin E Supplement, Zinc Oxide, Copper Proteinate, Potassium Iodide, Niacin Supplement, Manganese Supplement, Calcium Pantothenate, Pyridoxine Hydrochloride, Riboflavin Supplement, Vitamin A Supplement, Biotin, Sodium Selenite, Vitamin D-3 Supplement, Vitamin B-12 Supplement, Folic Acid.

Still some bad stuff, but best we can find at Stop and Shop and not tremendously expensive.

 

[timschochet]

Wow one of Hillary's campaign spokesmen is calling for internment camps for muslims.

Why hasn't Hillary repudiated him yet? When does she denounce him?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3354779/Now-Hillary-campaign-accused-Islamophobia-Liberal-groups-say-military-supporter-Wesley-Clark-bad-Trump-calling-disloyal-Americans-interred.html

Wesley Clark. He'll probably have to apologize or resign from the campaign.

 

[timschochet]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Have you seen the smog in Beijing & China this week?

Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill

Just look at the pictures.

That's reality.

The point, which you and jon keep missing, is that China wants to improve this, and for their own sake they have to. So we can't use them any longer as an excuse to do nothing.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Tim China talking about global warming is like Jesse James talking about gun control.

The bureaucrats own the industries, you think they are going to regulate themselves?

No. Completely unrealistic.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

So Tom, no comment from Hillary on Clark yet? Why not?

 

[cubd8]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Have you seen the smog in Beijing & China this week?

Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill

Just look at the pictures.

That's reality.

The point, which you and jon keep missing, is that China wants to improve this, and for their own sake they have to. So we can't use them any longer as an excuse to do nothing.

These pictures seem to make that claim literally look ridiculous.

 

[jon_mx]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Have you seen the smog in Beijing & China this week?

Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill

Just look at the pictures.

That's reality.

The point, which you and jon keep missing, is that China wants to improve this, and for their own sake they have to. So we can't use them any longer as an excuse to do nothing.

Tim you really aren't aware that type of pollution has zero to do with global warming. The US for instance has done a ton to improve air quality but we still are producing about the same level of CO2. Talking to you about this issue is very frustrating because basic concepts are not understood.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Can we talk Russian history now?

Where'd that leave off?

Yeah where did that leave off?

 

[timschochet]

Can we talk Russian history now?

Where'd that leave off?

Yeah where did that leave off?

Outbreak of World War I. My sources were lacking so I was doing it all myself which honestly was too much work. But eventually I'll try to get back to it.

 

[timschochet]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

 

[timschochet]

I see there's renewed criticism of Hillary this morning.

SaintsInDome is concerned that one of her spokesmen, Wesley Clark, called for the internment of radical Islamists and Hillary hasn't responded.

Baloney Sandwich believes that Hillary's recent denial that she told the Benghazi families about the filmmaker being arrested proves that she is a liar.

The Commish is very concerned that Hillary means to shutdown the Internet.

It's not worth getting into the details of all this stuff for the time being, not while the GOP is trying to decide between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. If that's going to be their candidate, then Hillary should be the choice of everyone who believes Trump or Cruz would be horrible for this country, and hopefully that is a large majority.

If and when Republicans come to their senses and settle on a reasonable candidate like Rubio, Christie, Bush or

Kasich, it will then be appropriate to discuss Hillary's flaws. But so long as it looks like Trump or Cruz is the guy, Hillary has no flaws.

 

[timschochet]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

Just heard it on CNN.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Did CNN give the party breakdown of the 6/10 number?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ha good to see Tim's Hillary support finally devolving into the 'vote for the crook with her own but less dangerous autocratic and mercurial tendencies'. At least there's more intellectual honesty in that one, stick with that.

 

[Don Quixote]

I think Tim is referring to this new NBC News poll: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-57-oppose-trumps-muslim-proposal-n477941

 

[timschochet]

I think Tim is referring to this new NBC News poll: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-57-oppose-trumps-muslim-proposal-n477941

Thank you. I wrote CNN, meant NBC.

 

[timschochet]

Ha good to see Tim's Hillary support finally devolving into the 'vote for the crook with her own but less dangerous autocratic and mercurial tendencies'. At least there's more intellectual honesty in that one, stick with that.

WellI don't acknowledge she is Edwin Edwards or anything like that. But I am saying that at the present time, given the calamity that is taking over the GOP, Hillary's warts are irrelevant.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think Tim is referring to this new NBC News poll: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-57-oppose-trumps-muslim-proposal-n477941

Thank you. I wrote CNN, meant NBC.

But views are mixed among Republicans: 42 percent of GOP respondents support Trump's proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S., while 36 percent oppose it.

And among Republican primary voters, it's 38 percent support, 39 percent oppose.

By comparison, 75 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents disagree with Trump's proposal.

If you look at the graph, 42% Republicans support it, 30% Indies, 11% Democrats support it. That's not exactly Republicans "loving" it, it's also not everyone else "hating" it. It's also surprising that 25% of Democrats don't oppose it. It would be interesting to see the racial makeup of the 11% Democrat portion. I wouldn't underestimate the bewigged one's ability to get cross over support.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Pfleger sabotages his efforts

Someone in TOTC recently asked why Father Michael Pfleger encouraged the disruptive Black Friday protests on Michigan Avenue. It's because Pfleger has adopted thug tactics. Initially trying to help his local parishioners deal with racial inequality issues, a noble cause, he appears to have now adopted the mannerisms of the lowest element to accomplish this, and in doing so he sabotages his efforts. Black Friday shopping has nothing to do with the shooting he was protesting, so punishing these merchants seems to point to a confused, reactionary man more enamored with publicity than social reform. Mob action and threats are what thuggery is all about.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/lake-county-news-sun/opinion/talk/ct-lns-talk-of-the-county-st-1202-20151201-story.html

Yaknow Tim, I recall you mentioning Fr. Coughlin as a past demagogue, but I have to say while he's not a national figure really Fr. Fleger in Chicago has probably come closest to Coughlin. Different ideology obviously but pretty similar from being a straying Catholic priest to his demagogic methods.

 

[timschochet]

I never said that Dems hate it. I wrote 6 out of 10. I did write Republicans love it and that's obviously an overstatement based on what somebody said on TV.

Saints the 25% Dem support doesn't surprise me, except I would have expected it to be higher. We live in scary times. Also when it comes to nativism and bigotry towards minorities, history shows the Democratic Party is worse than Republicans have ever been.

 

[timschochet]

Pfleger sabotages his efforts

Someone in TOTC recently asked why Father Michael Pfleger encouraged the disruptive Black Friday protests on Michigan Avenue. It's because Pfleger has adopted thug tactics. Initially trying to help his local parishioners deal with racial inequality issues, a noble cause, he appears to have now adopted the mannerisms of the lowest element to accomplish this, and in doing so he sabotages his efforts. Black Friday shopping has nothing to do with the shooting he was protesting, so punishing these merchants seems to point to a confused, reactionary man more enamored with publicity than social reform. Mob action and threats are what thuggery is all about.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/lake-county-news-sun/opinion/talk/ct-lns-talk-of-the-county-st-1202-20151201-story.htmlYaknow Tim, I recall you mentioning Fr. Coughlin as a past demagogue, but I have to say while he's not a national figure really Fr. Fleger in Chicago has probably come closest to Coughlin. Different ideology obviously but pretty similar from being a straying Catholic priest to his demagogic methods.

Not really familiar with him. I'll take a look.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I never said that Dems hate it. I wrote 6 out of 10. I did write Republicans love it and that's obviously an overstatement based on what somebody said on TV.

Saints the 25% Dem support doesn't surprise me, except I would have expected it to be higher. We live in scary times. Also when it comes to nativism and bigotry towards minorities, history shows the Democratic Party is worse than Republicans have ever been.

Thanks for the concession.

Let's leave "history" of the Democratic Party out of it because you know where that leads. The GOP has never matched that history.

My point is he is trying to maximize white support, he could draw some of that from the Democratic party and independents. Obviously he would lose a ton in the GOP along the way as well.

-eta - I can't find the cross tabs, I don't think they're available, but my guess is that the percentage of white Democrats favoring this is probably closer to the GOP number than anyone wants to think about. If 60% of Democrats are white then 40% of that number is guess what? 25%.

- eta2 - Actually the more I think about it, the comp here isn't Goldwater but rather Thurmond or George Wallace.

 

[timschochet]

Dow Chemical and DuPont to merge. Got to be the biggest merger ever, right?

 

[krista4]

Dow Chemical and DuPont to merge. Got to be the biggest merger ever, right?

No.

 

[whoknew]

Dow Chemical and DuPont to merge. Got to be the biggest merger ever, right?

My mother's family is from Midland, MI. Right now, its said that they are going to have "dual headquarters". But I doubt that lasts very long. Losing Dow would just crush Midland.

 

[jon_mx]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

I thought Tim hated populism.

 

[Doug B]

Dow Chemical and DuPont to merge. Got to be the biggest merger ever, right?

Close, but not quite the biggest ever. Biggest all time mergers per Yahoo Finance, October 2015.

Dow-DuPont looks to be worth about $130 billion, which would put it tied third on the Yahoo list. DowDuPont would be the second-largest American merger of all time, after AOL-Time Warner's $160 billion merger almost 16 years ago (TW spun AOL back off in 2009).

 

[timschochet]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

I thought Tim hated populism.

I don't understand your point.

 

[McGarnicle]

Dow Chemical and DuPont to merge. Got to be the biggest merger ever, right?

No.

Biggest merger was Tom & Roseanne imo.

 

[msommer]

Check this out Jon:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/10/why-china-and-the-us-have-found-common-purpose-on-climate-change

It suggests that your analysis is out of date.

Have you seen the smog in Beijing & China this week?

Smog So Thick, Beijing Comes to a Standstill

Just look at the pictures.

That's reality.

Why do you think they are investing twice as much in renewable energy as the US? (There are links in the climate change scepticism thread if you are interested)

 

[jon_mx]

6 out of 10 Americans oppose Trump's Muslim proposal. But Republicans love it.

Link?

I thought Tim hated populism.

I don't understand your point.

You point to polls as if it bares a reason to support an idea, which in essence is popularism.

 

[timschochet]

No, I've never done that. I point to polls because it's interesting to point to polls. I never use polls to prove the rightness or wrongness of a position, and never will.

I won't deny that I get happy when polling agrees with me. It's a pretty rare occurrence. So rare that when it happens it often causes me to question my own judgment. Not this time though.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

You know, in a time when things like Donald Trump is ahead in the polls and Wesley Clark is being quoted that internment camps might not be a bad idea I find myself remembering the immortal words of that great United States Admiral Joshua Painter, "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."

 

[timschochet]

I think this "no guns for suspected terrorists on the no fly list" is going to be a winning issue for Dems. I just heard Marco Rubio attempt to explain the Republican position. It may have merit but it comes off as nonsensical.