Tom Brady 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Fantaholic]

I am interested to see the results of this poll and also hear opinions on why or why not Brady can match last year's numbers. I for one see no reason why he can not put up numbers very similar to last year's. Yes, I am a Patriots fan, but it has nothing to do with my thoughts here.

I think it's easy to say that there's no way he can repeat a performance like that, and it's probably the popular opinion. But, why not?

Here are my reasons why I think he will do the same or better this year:

1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL

2. Moss is still hungry and Brady is too.

3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively until their secondary comes together. People will score on them through the air and Brady will need to keep scoring.

4. The lack of a true (reliable)#1RB

5. Redemption

 

[BigRed]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?

But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

 

[aburt19]

I am interested to see the results of this poll and also hear opinions on why or why not Brady can match last year's numbers. I for one see no reason why he can not put up numbers very similar to last year's. Yes, I am a Patriots fan, but it has nothing to do with my thoughts here. I think it's easy to say that there's no way he can repeat a performance like that, and it's probably the popular opinion. But, why not? Here are my reasons why I think he will do the same or better this year:1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL2. Moss is still hungry and Brady is too. 3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively until their secondary comes together. People will score on them through the air and Brady will need to keep scoring.4. The lack of a true (reliable)#1RB5. Redemption

Your own five arguments include two that suggest that Brady will regress from last year.1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL- This could lead to more running by the Patriots.3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively...-Again, running the ball more would lead to the defense being on the field less.I still expect the Pats to pass more than they run, but believe they will run a little more this year.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

do i think he will throw up 50+ TDs? no

do i think he will have a VERY legit chance at 45+ TDs? yes

is it almost a lock to throw at least 40+ TDs? maybe not a lock, but i don't see ANY argument why he can't put up 2-3 TDs each week average.

 

[aburt19]

do i think he will throw up 50+ TDs? nodo i think he will have a VERY legit chance at 45+ TDs? yesis it almost a lock to throw at least 40+ TDs? maybe not a lock, but i don't see ANY argument why he can't put up 2-3 TDs each week average.

The last two QB to set the NFL record for touchdowns were Dan Marino and Peyton Manning. Dan Marino, the year after he set the record got hurt, but was onpace for 29 touchdowns. Peyton Manning, the year after he set the record threw for 29.The regression by those players give one pause to think about the number of touchdowns that Brady will throw. I personally think that it will be somewherein the range of 35-38. That's very good, but given that he is being taken in the first round (often in the first 7 players taken), I'm not sure that the productionmatches the draft position.

 

[OddibeMcD]

Yeah, while there isn't a guarantee, it isn't likely.

 

[Andy Herron]

Gotta read the tea leaves.

They threw so much last year for a couple of reasons.

1. Belichick wanted to make a statement (they were passing up very makable FG attempts for no good reason last year).

2. The RBs were dropping like flies from the get-go.

I see a more balanced attack this year, which will help take pressure off the defense.

I have to think they are considering carrying 5 RBs this year for more reason than to simply fill their roster.

 

[Fantaholic]

I am interested to see the results of this poll and also hear opinions on why or why not Brady can match last year's numbers. I for one see no reason why he can not put up numbers very similar to last year's. Yes, I am a Patriots fan, but it has nothing to do with my thoughts here. I think it's easy to say that there's no way he can repeat a performance like that, and it's probably the popular opinion. But, why not? Here are my reasons why I think he will do the same or better this year:1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL2. Moss is still hungry and Brady is too. 3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively until their secondary comes together. People will score on them through the air and Brady will need to keep scoring.4. The lack of a true (reliable)#1RB5. Redemption

Your own five arguments include two that suggest that Brady will regress from last year.1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL- This could lead to more running by the Patriots.3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively...-Again, running the ball more would lead to the defense being on the field less.I still expect the Pats to pass more than they run, but believe they will run a little more this year.

While I can understand your argument on my first reason although you're assuming the Pats will have a legitimate running game. I don't agree with you on my 3rd reason. If opponents are scoring on you, you need to score more. The Cleveland Browns form last year come to mind. Or, Indy before they assembled a defense.

 

[ceo3west]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

 

[-baller]

Gotta read the tea leaves.They threw so much last year for a couple of reasons.1. Belichick wanted to make a statement

he did?

 

[Fantaholic]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

Let's not change this into a NE vs. NY thread please. If you have something viable to say, please do. I want to hear concrete reasons as to why he can't repeat, no matter who you're a fan of.

 

[Fantaholic]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Other than the fact that you can read about history Big Red. Do you have any reasons why Tom Brady can't come close to his performance from last year? Your reference to Manning is not very strong. A few things come to mind. Manning was not heading into a ridiculously easy schedule the next year. He still hadn't won anything, so the team needed to mix things up. Their defense got better in the off season not worse.

 

[aburt19]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Other than the fact that you can read about history Big Red. Do you have any reasons why Tom Brady can't come close to his performance from last year? Your reference to Manning is not very strong. A few things come to mind. Manning was not heading into a ridiculously easy schedule the next year. He still hadn't won anything, so the team needed to mix things up. Their defense got better in the off season not worse.

That's why I know that I won't have him on any team that I have. Someone will always believe that he is going to repeat or at least come close to what he didlast season. Good luck drafting him in the top 7.

 

[Fantaholic]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Other than the fact that you can read about history Big Red. Do you have any reasons why Tom Brady can't come close to his performance from last year? Your reference to Manning is not very strong. A few things come to mind. Manning was not heading into a ridiculously easy schedule the next year. He still hadn't won anything, so the team needed to mix things up. Their defense got better in the off season not worse.

That's why I know that I won't have him on any team that I have. Someone will always believe that he is going to repeat or at least come close to what he didlast season. Good luck drafting him in the top 7.

Okay, so your top 7 are: LTAPWestyAddai ? (could still be improving, but I say little upside)SJax ?? (when is he signing again? Coming to camp late is recipe for disaster with the injury prone)Gore ?? (Martz????????)Barber ?? (Upside could have him finishing 4th, so I'll give you that one)I will gladly take Brady over the question marks at #5.

 

[North]

Don't think he can repeat last years performance, I'm looking at around 38 td's and 12 ints 1 rushing td.

 

[aburt19]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Other than the fact that you can read about history Big Red. Do you have any reasons why Tom Brady can't come close to his performance from last year? Your reference to Manning is not very strong. A few things come to mind. Manning was not heading into a ridiculously easy schedule the next year. He still hadn't won anything, so the team needed to mix things up. Their defense got better in the off season not worse.

That's why I know that I won't have him on any team that I have. Someone will always believe that he is going to repeat or at least come close to what he didlast season. Good luck drafting him in the top 7.

Okay, so your top 7 are: LTAPWestyAddai ? (could still be improving, but I say little upside)SJax ?? (when is he signing again? Coming to camp late is recipe for disaster with the injury prone)Gore ?? (Martz????????)Barber ?? (Upside could have him finishing 4th, so I'll give you that one)I will gladly take Brady over the question marks at #5.

We just disagree on this one. Nothing I'm going to say will change your mind and that's cool. Good luck with Brady this season.

 

[Fantaholic]

Interesting thus far. Although the comments have been to the contrary. 27 of 51 people voted that Brady would essentially have a similar season to last year.

 

[-baller]

some people were laughing when I took him early second last year.

then they were crying.....

 

[Doug B]

Do you have any reasons why Tom Brady can't come close to his performance from last year?

You can't use facts and logic to "prove" future performance.My gut says Brady almost certainly drops below 35 TDs, with about a 25% chance of dropping down into the 25-30 range. Still a rock-solid season QBing the Patriots, but without the pinball scoring.Can I prove that? Give reasons? Not really. Just honest impressions, with a basic assumptions that far-outlying performances don't typically repeat themselves reliably in the NFL. A bunch of unforeseen stuff ends up getting in the way -- a key OL injury (even if said key O-Lineman misses no games but plays hampered), a key injury elsewhere, opposing Ds selling out somehow to dampen the Pats attack, etc.

 

[Road Warriors]

I voted significantly down from last year. I expect a 20-30% drop in TD production, similar completion % and yardage on fewer throws. I'm not sure if that's "significant" or slightly down, but I figured 20-30 % is pretty steep.

My reasons are not rooted in overanalysis, but more gut feel. I don't expect to see the forced passing down the stretch we saw last year, as it was clear he was gunning for the record. I expect a bit more balance from the offense, and I doubt a record setting scoring offense is the new "norm" for this team.

While I expect him to be down, I still expect QB1 #s out of him, so it's not exactly falling off the cliff.

 

[DoubleG]

A few points if I may:

1) History is not on his side - most players (see Manning's 49 TD season) after having a career year come back much closer to their career mean then maintain a new plateau - it's not like this is Brady's 4th year in the league and he's finally learning the game.

2) The assumption that Brady, Moss, Welker, the O-line et. al. will all remian healthy for another 16 games is hardly a given in the NFL.

3) The Patriots - and specifically Moss and Welker and how the Pats used them took some teams by surpise last year. In the first 10 games, the Pats scored 34 or more points 9 out of 10 times. In the last 6 regular season games, they scored 34 or more points only twice. They didn't score more than 31 in any post season game either (granted, they were playing better teams in the post season...)

4) Teams that want to slow down the Patriots offense will look at game film from post season - especially the Chargers and Giants game, where the Pats were held to 21 and 14 points, respectively. The Chargers were in the middle of the pack defensively in '07 (14th in overall and passing d) and the Giants pass defense was also decent, but hardly phenomenal (ranked 11th). Simply put, if average defenses are capable of putting together a game plan to slow down the Pats passing attack, other teams will be able to duplicate it, to an extent. I do find it interesting that following the Giants game at the end of the regular season, the Patriots put up fewer and fewer points.

I think Brady will have a year somewhere, statistically speaking, between last year and his career average - but even with Moss, I see it closer to the latter, rather than the former.

 

[shakeybarn]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

Let's not change this into a NE vs. NY thread please. If you have something viable to say, please do. I want to hear concrete reasons as to why he can't repeat, no matter who you're a fan of.

Paranoid android... where was/is the NE vs NY drivel...One poster says, he thought Manning was overvalued... the NY guy comes in and agrees... and that makes it a NY vs NE challenge.Are... you... kidding.... me?

 

[ceo3west]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

Let's not change this into a NE vs. NY thread please. If you have something viable to say, please do. I want to hear concrete reasons as to why he can't repeat, no matter who you're a fan of.

Not sure how you got NY vs. NE out of this post I say this for 3 reasons:1. Numbers don't lie. QB's coming off of monster years regress the next year, it's been proven time after time. Only 1 QB has ever thrown even 35 TD's back to back.2. Brady himself has eluded to the fact that what worked for them last year may not work again this year. Translation: Look for the Pats to do what they did when they were winning superbowls - achieve offensive balance so that come superbowl Sunday, they are not a one dimensional team.3. They have added Lamont Jordan to the Maroney/Morris/Faulk trio. Why? Because they will be running more often this year to achieve that balance.If you would like to gamble a top 6 pick that Brady becomes the first QB to throw 40 TD's back to back, be my guest. I think it's insanity.

 

[Fantaholic]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

Let's not change this into a NE vs. NY thread please. If you have something viable to say, please do. I want to hear concrete reasons as to why he can't repeat, no matter who you're a fan of.

Paranoid android... where was/is the NE vs NY drivel...One poster says, he thought Manning was overvalued... the NY guy comes in and agrees... and that makes it a NY vs NE challenge.Are... you... kidding.... me?

Anything of value?

 

[Road Warriors]

A few points if I may:

1) History is not on his side - most players (see Manning's 49 TD season) after having a career year come back much closer to their career mean then maintain a new plateau - it's not like this is Brady's 4th year in the league and he's finally learning the game.

You touch on it, but then dismiss it, but the significant difference in your point 1 ( Brady vs History ) is that historically great seasons are most frequently followed up by a regression to the mean usually had very little personnel changes. Brady's great season came after a huge uptick in talent level, so the comparison to his historical mean may carry less weight. I'm not sure what Brady/Moss/Welker's mean is. This year will help define it, IMO.

2) The assumption that Brady, Moss, Welker, the O-line et. al. will all remian healthy for another 16 games is hardly a given in the NFL.

Fair. If any of these get hurt, production will be down big from last year.

3) The Patriots - and specifically Moss and Welker and how the Pats used them took some teams by surpise last year. In the first 10 games, the Pats scored 34 or more points 9 out of 10 times. In the last 6 regular season games, they scored 34 or more points only twice. They didn't score more than 31 in any post season game either (granted, they were playing better teams in the post season...)

4) Teams that want to slow down the Patriots offense will look at game film from post season - especially the Chargers and Giants game, where the Pats were held to 21 and 14 points, respectively. The Chargers were in the middle of the pack defensively in '07 (14th in overall and passing d) and the Giants pass defense was also decent, but hardly phenomenal (ranked 11th). Simply put, if average defenses are capable of putting together a game plan to slow down the Pats passing attack, other teams will be able to duplicate it, to an extent. I do find it interesting that following the Giants game at the end of the regular season, the Patriots put up fewer and fewer points.

I can see these two points as linked. I have several reasons for the dropoff in productivity. More game film allowed for better gameplanning. NE weather isn't ideal in Dec/Jan to passing attacks. Several of the teams over the final weeks posed more difficult matchups ( BAL, PHI, NYG ). The push for the TD record led to _very_ predicitable playcalling ( See MIA game ). Some of these are unchangable ( matchups don't always favor your style, weather in NE will continue to suck ). Some of these are workable with gameplanning, playcalling and balance.

I think Brady will have a year somewhere, statistically speaking, between last year and his career average - but even with Moss, I see it closer to the latter, rather than the former.

I agree with your range, but I lean to the former, rather than the latter.

 

[David Yudkin]

You touch on it, but then dismiss it, but the significant difference in your point 1 ( Brady vs History ) is that historically great seasons are most frequently followed up by a regression to the mean usually had very little personnel changes. Brady's great season came after a huge uptick in talent level, so the comparison to his historical mean may carry less weight. I'm not sure what Brady/Moss/Welker's mean is. This year will help define it, IMO.

It works the same the other way as well though. That the teams with high passing TD totals had the SAME personnel the following season. Yet their totals dropped off.

 

[Road Warriors]

You touch on it, but then dismiss it, but the significant difference in your point 1 ( Brady vs History ) is that historically great seasons are most frequently followed up by a regression to the mean usually had very little personnel changes. Brady's great season came after a huge uptick in talent level, so the comparison to his historical mean may carry less weight. I'm not sure what Brady/Moss/Welker's mean is. This year will help define it, IMO.

It works the same the other way as well though. That the teams with high passing TD totals had the SAME personnel the following season. Yet their totals dropped off.

When nothing has changed, and it somehow comes together, the big year is truly an anomoly. When a number of things change, there may be a new "norm" I lean towards Brady's baseline moving up into the low-mid 30s, which would be a big drop from last year, but still a 40% increase over his mean prior to last year.

 

[pats3in4]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.

Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

 

[-baller]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

week 1 - 297/3week 2 - 279/3week 3 - 311/4week 4 - 231/3....week 11 - 373/5(should've spent more time watching film...)week 12 - 380/1(bs endzone call robs him of one)week 13 - 257/2(severe wind game)week 14 - 399/4('elite' pitt defense still not catching on.......)week 15 - 140/0(leads me to believe we'll see a lot of rainstorm defense this year...)week 16 - 215/3week 17 - 356/2(intensive film study cuts td's down by a third....)

 

[EBF]

My guess is that his year end stats will fall roughly in the middle of the range from his 2006 stats to his 2007 stats.

I think it's highly unlikely that he'll match last year's totals. It was flukish year. Teams have had a whole offseason to figure out Moss (lol) and Welker. I just don't see the perfect storm striking in consecutive years, even if the personnel remains mostly the same.

 

[Tanner9919]

I am interested to see the results of this poll and also hear opinions on why or why not Brady can match last year's numbers. I for one see no reason why he can not put up numbers very similar to last year's. Yes, I am a Patriots fan, but it has nothing to do with my thoughts here. I think it's easy to say that there's no way he can repeat a performance like that, and it's probably the popular opinion. But, why not? Here are my reasons why I think he will do the same or better this year:1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL2. Moss is still hungry and Brady is too. 3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively until their secondary comes together. People will score on them through the air and Brady will need to keep scoring.4. The lack of a true (reliable)#1RB5. Redemption

Your own five arguments include two that suggest that Brady will regress from last year.1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL- This could lead to more running by the Patriots.3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively...-Again, running the ball more would lead to the defense being on the field less.I still expect the Pats to pass more than they run, but believe they will run a little more this year.

more running, especially from Maroney, the forgotten man in the NE offense...easy schedule means easier time running to ball..even if NE gets up early in games, which they're likely to do, they'll heavily rely on the running game to wear down the clock in the second half..Maroney should get a lot of 'garbage' time, if not plenty of action otherwise..Can't imagine NE dropping Brady back as much as they did last season, he'll get killed like he did in the SB..at some point last season, BB realized they might be on a record-setting pace for TD passes, so he gave the go ahead for balls-to-the-wall passing to make that record season become reality..I doubt they come close to those numbers again this season..I'd look for the Pats to get back to what they were during the Dillon Years,i.e, timely passing accounting for roughly 28-30 TD passes ( Brady's career Avg), but an offense based more on a smash-mouth running game, led my Maroney..

 

[gump]

If Brady does 75% of what he did last year, he still ranks as the #1 QB and top 6 overall on my VBD.

That sounds like as safe a bet as there in for the options in the middle of the first round.

 

[EFD]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

week 1 - 297/3week 2 - 279/3week 3 - 311/4week 4 - 231/3....week 11 - 373/5(should've spent more time watching film...)week 12 - 380/1(bs endzone call robs him of one)week 13 - 257/2(severe wind game)week 14 - 399/4('elite' pitt defense still not catching on.......)week 15 - 140/0(leads me to believe we'll see a lot of rainstorm defense this year...)week 16 - 215/3week 17 - 356/2(intensive film study cuts td's down by a third....)

So going off your somewhat arbitrary slices of his season:'Early' season (weeks 1 to 4) average - 289 yards, 3.25 TDs'Late' season (weeks 11 to 17) average - 303 yards, 2.5 TDsSo his yardage remained relatively flat, and his TD passes dropped a lot. It seemed to me that you were trying to illustrate that Brady's performance did *not* drop towards the end of the season, but the numbers you cited don't seem to really help your cause.I personally do not think TB will be able to replicate his '07 season. I think that beginning with the Eagles game the 'blueprint' on how to best combat the Pats became clear - attack the living crap out of Brady. I think the Ravens, Dolphins and Giants executed that gameplan very well, and I expect it to be more of the same in '08. That's not to say their opponents will be able to do it, but I expect TB to be under a lot of heat this season. And given the state of their OL as things currently stand that is not a good thing at all.You can't forecast injuries, obviously, but TB is going to be under a lot of pressure this season. I think that alone is reason to doubt he can come close to his '07 season.

 

[Road Warriors]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

week 1 - 297/3week 2 - 279/3week 3 - 311/4week 4 - 231/3....week 11 - 373/5(should've spent more time watching film...)week 12 - 380/1(bs endzone call robs him of one)week 13 - 257/2(severe wind game)week 14 - 399/4('elite' pitt defense still not catching on.......)week 15 - 140/0(leads me to believe we'll see a lot of rainstorm defense this year...)week 16 - 215/3week 17 - 356/2(intensive film study cuts td's down by a third....)

So going off your somewhat arbitrary slices of his season:'Early' season (weeks 1 to 4) average - 289 yards, 3.25 TDs'Late' season (weeks 11 to 17) average - 303 yards, 2.5 TDsSo his yardage remained relatively flat, and his TD passes dropped a lot. It seemed to me that you were trying to illustrate that Brady's performance did *not* drop towards the end of the season, but the numbers you cited don't seem to really help your cause.I personally do not think TB will be able to replicate his '07 season. I think that beginning with the Eagles game the 'blueprint' on how to best combat the Pats became clear - attack the living crap out of Brady. I think the Ravens, Dolphins and Giants executed that gameplan very well, and I expect it to be more of the same in '08. That's not to say their opponents will be able to do it, but I expect TB to be under a lot of heat this season. And given the state of their OL as things currently stand that is not a good thing at all.You can't forecast injuries, obviously, but TB is going to be under a lot of pressure this season. I think that alone is reason to doubt he can come close to his '07 season.

I agree on the gameplan against them, but few teams have the front 4 to apply the pressure the Eagles and Giants did late last year. Matchups matter, and I'm not sure how many solid pressure D's the Pats will face this year. And if the "dropoff" is an average 2.5 TD / week, well that comes out to 40 TDs... down 20% from last year but still a huge year. I haven't seem many predict TB will hit 50 TDs again, but mid 30s seems a pretty safe bet to me, with some upside potential.

 

[-baller]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

week 1 - 297/3week 2 - 279/3week 3 - 311/4week 4 - 231/3....week 11 - 373/5(should've spent more time watching film...)week 12 - 380/1(bs endzone call robs him of one)week 13 - 257/2(severe wind game)week 14 - 399/4('elite' pitt defense still not catching on.......)week 15 - 140/0(leads me to believe we'll see a lot of rainstorm defense this year...)week 16 - 215/3week 17 - 356/2(intensive film study cuts td's down by a third....)

So going off your somewhat arbitrary slices of his season:'Early' season (weeks 1 to 4) average - 289 yards, 3.25 TDs'Late' season (weeks 11 to 17) average - 303 yards, 2.5 TDsSo his yardage remained relatively flat, and his TD passes dropped a lot. It seemed to me that you were trying to illustrate that Brady's performance did *not* drop towards the end of the season, but the numbers you cited don't seem to really help your cause.I personally do not think TB will be able to replicate his '07 season. I think that beginning with the Eagles game the 'blueprint' on how to best combat the Pats became clear - attack the living crap out of Brady. I think the Ravens, Dolphins and Giants executed that gameplan very well, and I expect it to be more of the same in '08. That's not to say their opponents will be able to do it, but I expect TB to be under a lot of heat this season. And given the state of their OL as things currently stand that is not a good thing at all.You can't forecast injuries, obviously, but TB is going to be under a lot of pressure this season. I think that alone is reason to doubt he can come close to his '07 season.

I think the #'s I posted were clear enough w/o any half-assed translation to muddle them up.what you want to define as 'early' seaon and 'late' season is your business.

 

[EFD]

Brady started last year on fire, on pace to obliterate Manning's record. Once teams had enough game film on the new Moss/Welker offense, those teams adjusted, his numbers calmed down and he just barely broke the record. The logical progression would be better defensing of that offense right from the start of this season and a significant drop in TDs from last year.Still, a significant dropoff to 32-35 TDs would be an outstanding year.

week 1 - 297/3week 2 - 279/3week 3 - 311/4week 4 - 231/3....week 11 - 373/5(should've spent more time watching film...)week 12 - 380/1(bs endzone call robs him of one)week 13 - 257/2(severe wind game)week 14 - 399/4('elite' pitt defense still not catching on.......)week 15 - 140/0(leads me to believe we'll see a lot of rainstorm defense this year...)week 16 - 215/3week 17 - 356/2(intensive film study cuts td's down by a third....)

So going off your somewhat arbitrary slices of his season:'Early' season (weeks 1 to 4) average - 289 yards, 3.25 TDs'Late' season (weeks 11 to 17) average - 303 yards, 2.5 TDsSo his yardage remained relatively flat, and his TD passes dropped a lot. It seemed to me that you were trying to illustrate that Brady's performance did *not* drop towards the end of the season, but the numbers you cited don't seem to really help your cause.I personally do not think TB will be able to replicate his '07 season. I think that beginning with the Eagles game the 'blueprint' on how to best combat the Pats became clear - attack the living crap out of Brady. I think the Ravens, Dolphins and Giants executed that gameplan very well, and I expect it to be more of the same in '08. That's not to say their opponents will be able to do it, but I expect TB to be under a lot of heat this season. And given the state of their OL as things currently stand that is not a good thing at all.You can't forecast injuries, obviously, but TB is going to be under a lot of pressure this season. I think that alone is reason to doubt he can come close to his '07 season.

I think the #'s I posted were clear enough w/o any half-assed translation to muddle them up.what you want to define as 'early' seaon and 'late' season is your business.

Are you serious? I took the numbers you posted, averaged them, and laid them out. That's not a "half assed translation", that's called averaging. They are what they are. I'm sorry of they worked against you, but that's your fault.

 

[Fantaholic]

If Brady does 75% of what he did last year, he still ranks as the #1 QB and top 6 overall on my VBD.That sounds like as safe a bet as there in for the options in the middle of the first round.

This is basically what I am alluding to. I see a slight drop off only because of the many reasons some have posted here. However, as you stated even 75% of Brady from last year is a solid mid first round pick. While I am hesitant to say he can repeat the same performance, I feel very confident saying that he wll at least come respectably close to it. With that said how can anyone argue taking Brady once the top 4-5 RB's are off the board???

 

[David Yudkin]

I am interested to see the results of this poll and also hear opinions on why or why not Brady can match last year's numbers. I for one see no reason why he can not put up numbers very similar to last year's. Yes, I am a Patriots fan, but it has nothing to do with my thoughts here. I think it's easy to say that there's no way he can repeat a performance like that, and it's probably the popular opinion. But, why not? Here are my reasons why I think he will do the same or better this year:1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL2. Moss is still hungry and Brady is too. 3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively until their secondary comes together. People will score on them through the air and Brady will need to keep scoring.4. The lack of a true (reliable)#1RB5. Redemption

Your own five arguments include two that suggest that Brady will regress from last year.1. New England plays the easiest schedule in the NFL- This could lead to more running by the Patriots.3. The Pats are going to struggle defensively...-Again, running the ball more would lead to the defense being on the field less.I still expect the Pats to pass more than they run, but believe they will run a little more this year.

more running, especially from Maroney, the forgotten man in the NE offense...easy schedule means easier time running to ball..even if NE gets up early in games, which they're likely to do, they'll heavily rely on the running game to wear down the clock in the second half..Maroney should get a lot of 'garbage' time, if not plenty of action otherwise..Can't imagine NE dropping Brady back as much as they did last season, he'll get killed like he did in the SB..at some point last season, BB realized they might be on a record-setting pace for TD passes, so he gave the go ahead for balls-to-the-wall passing to make that record season become reality..I doubt they come close to those numbers again this season..I'd look for the Pats to get back to what they were during the Dillon Years,i.e, timely passing accounting for roughly 28-30 TD passes ( Brady's career Avg), but an offense based more on a smash-mouth running game, led my Maroney..

If you rally, truly believe this then I can't help you . . .But I have seen no evidence that there is any plan, evidence, or intent for the Pats to do anything different with Maroney than they have the past two seasons. Adding Lamont Jordan should be an indicator that they are not planning on turning Maroney into Larry Johnson.When healthy, the Pats have usually given Maroney 15-17 carries per game. Yes, there will be a lot of garbage time carries if the Pats are up by three TD. But I don't see MARONEY getting those carries, as they need to keep him fresh and healthy for a deep post-season run.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Brady does 75% of what he did last year, he still ranks as the #1 QB and top 6 overall on my VBD.That sounds like as safe a bet as there in for the options in the middle of the first round.

This is basically what I am alluding to. I see a slight drop off only because of the many reasons some have posted here. However, as you stated even 75% of Brady from last year is a solid mid first round pick. While I am hesitant to say he can repeat the same performance, I feel very confident saying that he wll at least come respectably close to it. With that said how can anyone argue taking Brady once the top 4-5 RB's are off the board???

The average drop off for QBs posting a Top 25 season is 41%. History has not been kind to QBs the year after a huge season.

 

[Fantaholic]

If Brady does 75% of what he did last year, he still ranks as the #1 QB and top 6 overall on my VBD.That sounds like as safe a bet as there in for the options in the middle of the first round.

This is basically what I am alluding to. I see a slight drop off only because of the many reasons some have posted here. However, as you stated even 75% of Brady from last year is a solid mid first round pick. While I am hesitant to say he can repeat the same performance, I feel very confident saying that he wll at least come respectably close to it. With that said how can anyone argue taking Brady once the top 4-5 RB's are off the board???

The average drop off for QBs posting a Top 25 season is 41%. History has not been kind to QBs the year after a huge season.

I respect the statistics, but I think that sometimes the person, situation, and other circumstances need to be taken into consideration.

 

[aburt19]

The other thing to remember here is that Brady's BEST prior to last season was 28 TD passes. With the change in personnel (Moss, Welker, etc) I certainly don't see him

regressing to that level. I think that 32-38 TD is possible (I've got him at 35-38 TD). Depending on your scoring system, he could either be a mid first round

pick or at the very top of the second round.

But I consider a 25%-30% decrease in his stats to be a "significant" decrease from last year. Is it a very good season? Sure it is. Is it worth a mid first round

pick? For me, I don't think so.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Brady does 75% of what he did last year, he still ranks as the #1 QB and top 6 overall on my VBD.That sounds like as safe a bet as there in for the options in the middle of the first round.

This is basically what I am alluding to. I see a slight drop off only because of the many reasons some have posted here. However, as you stated even 75% of Brady from last year is a solid mid first round pick. While I am hesitant to say he can repeat the same performance, I feel very confident saying that he wll at least come respectably close to it. With that said how can anyone argue taking Brady once the top 4-5 RB's are off the board???

The average drop off for QBs posting a Top 25 season is 41%. History has not been kind to QBs the year after a huge season.

I respect the statistics, but I think that sometimes the person, situation, and other circumstances need to be taken into consideration.

I agree with you, but I can say that I have been around the block enough to know that EVERYONE says the situation is different or should not apply in the interim BEFORE the next season starts. I see this every year, and rarely do players hit the jackpot back to back.I happen to think that Brady will have a similar yardage total but nowhere near as many TD passes. I think 35 would be a lot (but doable).

 

[-baller]

I personally do not think TB will be able to replicate his '07 season. I think that beginning with the Eagles game the 'blueprint' on how to best combat the Pats became clear - attack the living crap out of Brady. I think the Ravens, Dolphins and Giants executed that gameplan very well, and I expect it to be more of the same in '08. That's not to say their opponents will be able to do it, but I expect TB to be under a lot of heat this season. And given the state of their OL as things currently stand that is not a good thing at all.You can't forecast injuries, obviously, but TB is going to be under a lot of pressure this season. I think that alone is reason to doubt he can come close to his '07 season.

THE BLUEPRINT!!!!! LOL you guys are crackin' me up.maybe you didn't see the games, but brady torched the eagles, while the pats were 'held' to only 31 + phantom call, and the giants blew up their offensive line w/a 4 man rush.let's hope the rest of the nfl doesn't catch on to those schemes.....they really need to rename this forum.

 

[Assani Fisher]

do i think he will throw up 50+ TDs? nodo i think he will have a VERY legit chance at 45+ TDs? yesis it almost a lock to throw at least 40+ TDs? maybe not a lock, but i don't see ANY argument why he can't put up 2-3 TDs each week average.

I will take under 40 TDs on the year and you or anyone else can take over. 40 would be a push. I'll bet up to $5000 total. Escrow a must. PM me if interested.

 

[Cass Durham]

The baseline has moved with Brady as of 2007. He threw 24 TDs in 2006 with Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown as his leading receivers........................... Are you guys kidding me? Anybody predicting less than 35 TDs from Brady this year is crazy. Moss should catch 18 by himself.

No, Brady will probably not reach 50 again this year for all the reasons that many have stated in this thread. But they are going to pass the ball. And they are going to be good at it. Currently I have Brady down at exactly 40 TDs.

 

[Alias]

do i think he will throw up 50+ TDs? nodo i think he will have a VERY legit chance at 45+ TDs? yesis it almost a lock to throw at least 40+ TDs? maybe not a lock, but i don't see ANY argument why he can't put up 2-3 TDs each week average.

I will take under 40 TDs on the year and you or anyone else can take over. 40 would be a push. I'll bet up to $5000 total. Escrow a must. PM me if interested.

I thought this was an intriguing offer and was the catalyst for my poll. I think this is an easy bet to take from Assani's vantage point, I tried searching the net for prop bets that may be out there on this - has anyone seen any in Vegas? If you could get it at 35 or maybe a little higher it would be enticing to take the over.

 

[Spike]

Look at all the other career years, including NFL record-setting years, players have had. They very rarely came anywhere close to repeating those numbers the next year - if ever - even when the teams/situations/etc were nearly identical. Do you seriously not get why?

But hey I love this mindset. I was laughing my butt off the year after Manning tossed for 49 TDs and was hideously overpriced. Have fun overpaying for Brady.

Finally someone with some sense about Brady. I cant wait for someone to take him in the mid-first round in my league!

Let's not change this into a NE vs. NY thread please. If you have something viable to say, please do. I want to hear concrete reasons as to why he can't repeat, no matter who you're a fan of.

Not sure how you got NY vs. NE out of this post I say this for 3 reasons:

1. Numbers don't lie. QB's coming off of monster years regress the next year, it's been proven time after time. Only 1 QB has ever thrown even 35 TD's back to back.

2. Brady himself has alluded to the fact that what worked for them last year may not work again this year. Translation: Look for the Pats to do what they did when they were winning superbowls - achieve offensive balance so that come superbowl Sunday, they are not a one dimensional team.

3. They have added Lamont Jordan to the Maroney/Morris/Faulk trio. Why? Because they will be running more often this year to achieve that balance.

If you would like to gamble a top 6 pick that Brady becomes the first QB to throw 40 TD's back to back, be my guest. I think it's insanity.

Stated by others as well, but perfectly stated here, imo.

 

[djcolts]

Defensive coordinators will have had an entire off-season to study the Pats offense - and this will make a big difference. IMO, they will make the Pats beat them in 12 play drives instead of 4 play drives, so they will have few overall possesions and, therefore, few passing TDs. This is what happened to the Colts from 2004 to 2005, and I expect the same thing to happen to the Pats. This actually will have the benefit to the Pats as a team assuming they perform at a high level on offense - it will give the defense more rest throughout the season and possibly have them more fresh at the end of the year - but it will hurt Brady's fantasy stats.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's what I think I know/have been told on this situation . . .

- Pats are still actively planning on passing a lot.

- They plan on trying to run the offense that worked in the very beginning of the season.

- For those that don't remember September from last year, the Pats did run a fair amount but were still essentially a pass first team.

- RBBC, almost a textbook definition. Maroney, if healthy, if playing in 16 games, will see his stats go up but only on a pr-rated basis (meaning he does not get 20_ carries a game).

- Pats offenesive line as currently constituted is A MESS. If I was not clear the first time . . . THE PATS OFFENSIVE LINE RIGHT NOW IS A MESS.

- Teams will try to exploit the missing link (the line) and send everything but the kitchen sink to get to Brady given that the line right now is totally banged up and they are having major chemistry/assignment problems.

- HOW they pass will likely change up dramatically. Pats have been practicing a lot of short routes, Welker dump offs, WR screens for far of Brady getting pummeled.

- They may score a lot of points, but don't look for a lot of deep passes early on as Brady won't have time to hang in the pocket.

- I suspect the Pats will have decent yardage totals but will not have as many TDs overall. They turned the ball over so infrequently last year that the law of averages will make them have more turnovers this year.

We can revisit what to expect once the OL gets healthier, but for now I'd be a little concerned if I invested a lot of fantasy stock on Pats players, at least early in the season.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Here's what I think I know/have been told on this situation . . .- Pats offenesive line as currently constituted is A MESS. If I was not clear the first time . . . THE PATS OFFENSIVE LINE RIGHT NOW IS A MESS.

Any idea why Draft Dominator has them graded as an "A" then? Just curious.