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Tom Brady MVP? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter PatsFanCT
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Second Sight
Footballguy
The only way Brady wins the MVP is if somehow, some way, The Patriots end up with Home Field Advantage in the playoffs.
That would mean that the Patriots somehow manage a better record than the Broncos (perhaps beating them when they pay head to head this season) and then people would definitely look at it as a situation of "Well, the Patriots are as good as the Broncos AND Brady is doing it with patched parts".
Otherwise, the MVP belongs to Peyton Manning already and it is all academic.§
That would mean that the Patriots somehow manage a better record than the Broncos (perhaps beating them when they pay head to head this season) and then people would definitely look at it as a situation of "Well, the Patriots are as good as the Broncos AND Brady is doing it with patched parts".
Otherwise, the MVP belongs to Peyton Manning already and it is all academic.§
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Show me where I said Brady deserves MVP over Manning? We all know player with the best stats wins MVP regardless of their supporting cast or circumstances.
I'm merely pointing out how ridiculous people are in this thread defending Manning, like he needs them defending his stats by recalculating his stats by removing dropped passed to show how much better his individual contribution is while ignoring his Tier 1 cast of receivers compared to Brady's Tier 4 cast.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
Peyton, but if the Pats finish the season tied or ahead of the Broncos I would heavily consider Brady.
Would consider Charles if he puts up some serious numbers, possibly even Graham.
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Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
The only ones comparing WR's are the Brady nuthuggers. The only ridiculous claims being made are those clinging to the Patriot dropped passes, while ignoring the simple fact that other teams have had dropped passes too, including Manning.
Dismattle
Footballguy
Yes you read "Random Shots" e-mails! Its not meant to be gospel, but it should be reason enough to start digging IF you don't know the correct answer. In this instance, I believe its safe to replace "literal" w nackup to the runner-up after the top 10 vote-getters, IF you only consider players who have earned MVP in the past. In other words "literally no chance in ___" has been shortened.Oh. My. God.lol. shine on, you crazy diamond
There are people that read the Random Shots e-mail?
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Yeah, I think any QB that drives his team to a great record should get attention, no matter what the stats are.
Pretty cool that Jojo agrees too about Peyton. It seemed he thought he didn't think Manning deserves it right now, but he's hard to follow.
For the record, I posted seven names without focusing on any one ahead of the others. I merely showed the drop-adjusted completion% of the other 7 QBs who I think would have the most legitimate case for the MVP right now. If Manning's stats stood out on that list, it wasn't because I was calling special attention to them, it's because Manning's stats right now would stand out on any list ever compiled.
Honestly, I think if you want to play the "WRs" card, Matt Stafford has a pretty interesting case, too. His team is 4-2 (with a better offense and worse defense than New England, to boot), he has 2 game-winning drives (same number as Tom Brady), his numbers are really fantastic. He has Calvin, but Calvin's been hobbled. Otherwise, he's had Durham, Broyles, Pettigrew, and Fauria. Fauria, it should be noted, is an undrafted rookie free agent. According to PFF, Stafford has an identical number of drops on an identical number of attempts. Bush and Bell are better than Ridley/Blount/Boldin (and one game of Vereen), but Tom Brady's offensive line is elite. Other than name recognition, it's hard to think of an argument for Tom Brady that doesn't apply even more to Matt Stafford right now.
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Ok Brady-hater, keep thinking that the level of experience of the WR's on these teams means nothing, using NFL rankings which is based on yardage I believe:
Total Points (Rush TD / Rec TD / Ret TD / Def TD)
Broncos 6-0 [1st in total offense; 1st in passing; 15th in rushing; 31% Opp Win-PCT; 29th in Total Defense; 1st in Total Points (9/22/2/1)]
Chiefs 6-0 [25th in total offense; 26th in passing; 12th in rushing; 31% Opp Win-PCT; 5th in Total Defense; t7th in Total Points (5/7/1/4)]
Seahawks 6-1 (lost to the Colts) [11th in total offense; 24th in passing; 2nd in rushing; 43% Opp Win-PCT; 2nd in Total Defense; t3rd in Total Points (7/12/0/1)]
Patriots 5-1 (lost to Bengals, beat the Saints - the only common top 5 team opponent) [14th in total offense; 19th in passing; 11th in rushing; 44% Opp Win-PCT; 14th in Total Defense; t27th in Total Points (3/8/0/0)]
Saints 5-1 (lost to the Patriots) [5th in total offense; 3rd in passing; 23rd in rushing; 47% Opp Win-PCT; 12th in Total Defense; t7th in Total Points (3/14/0/0)]
Aside from the Saints (who lost to the Pats), the Pats have had the toughest schedule thus far.
Aside from the Broncos, Pats have the lowest ranked Total Defense.
Aside from the Saints, the Pats have scored the highest % of their TD's through the air (73%) even with Brady throwing to a slew of rookie receivers.
I look forward to bumping this thread on November 24th after the Pats beat the Broncos.
Also all of the above is BG (before-Gronk), I suspect Brady's numbers improve significantly AG (after-Gronk)
Brady BG stats:
YARDS: 1480 [r-17]
YDS/G: 247 [r-19]
YDS/A: 6.19 [r-30]
TD/A: .0335 [r-23]
INT/A: .0167 [r-t9]
RATE: 79.5 [r-23]
COMP%: 56.9 [r-27]
.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Brady's "elite" offensive line has allowed 16 sacks this season, almost twice as many as Stafford (9). Of course, part of that is that they aren't actually elite. They looked a lot more elite when there were two elite tight ends on the field, but right now, they're just decent. Another reason they looked elite in the past is that Brady could consistently beat the blitz with guys like Welker and Woodhead and the tight ends. So while there were some memorable pockets for Brady, he had earned that right by showing that he could get the ball off quickly if he needed to, and he has great pocket presence. Now that he doesn't have those receiving options, he's getting a lot more coverage sacks.On the topic of coverage sacks, who exactly is drawing double teams on the Patriots? Not Calvin Johnson. Hobbled or no, Calvin impacts the game just by being on the field. Edelman and Amendola are hobbled, too, but they dont have the same impact.
As for the running backs, you mention Vereen, who had 159 of the Patriots' 700 YFS and 3 TDs that they've gotten out of the RB position before getting hurt week one. By comparison, Bush and Bell have combined for 1050 YFS and 6 touchdowns.
So while the Lions' offensive line has performed better, and they have Calvin Johnson, and they have two running backs who have outperformed by 50% a ragtag Patriots backfield that has three guys who have lost time to injury and a guy who couldn't make the Bucs' final cut, you think Stafford has outperformed Brady because he has led them to a worse record. That's really your objective analysis on this one?
Pro Football Focus grade Detroit's line as a net +10.1. They grade New England's line as a net +17.0.
PFF has Detroit's passing offense graded out at +17.9 (8th in the league). They grade New England's passing offense as -2.2 (21st in the league).
PFF has Matt Stafford at +11.2 (5th in the league). They have Brady at +2.4 (18th in the league).
PFF does say that Stafford has been pressured on a lower percentage of his dropbacks (27.4 vs. 32.3). Of course, Matt Stafford is less likely to be sacked when pressured (only 47% of pressures result in sacks, compared to 60% of pressures for Brady). And a huge reason why Stafford faces less pressure is because his time to throw (2.21 seconds) is the lowest in the league (Brady ranks 9th at 2.45 seconds). Matt Stafford's average sack comes in just 3.53 seconds, third fastest in the league. Brady's average sack comes in 3.73 seconds, 10th fastest in the league. No quarterback in the league gets 2.6 seconds in the pocket on a lower percentage of his snaps than Matt Stafford. The numbers clearly show that Brady's getting much more time in the pocket this year than Stafford, whose throws are coming out quicker, whose sacks are coming quicker, and who is getting far fewer chances to hang in and survey the field.
According to Football Outsiders, Detroit and New England have comparable rushing offenses (Detroit ranks 19th, New England ranks 21st). Reggie Bush has been limited by injury some. Joique Freaking Bell is Joique Freaking Bell. These guys were complete JAGs until Stafford got them. And it's not like Tom Brady is hurting for Running Backs- I hear that Stevan Ridley guy is pretty decent.
You also completely missed the part of my analysis where I talked about how defense is 50% responsible for the outcome of games. You might have missed that New England's is pretty good. You know, like how they faced the New Orleans Saints offense twice in the final three minutes and didn't give up a single first down, making Tom Brady's comeback possible after Brady had already badly blown two previous attempts.
The case for Brady essentially boils down to "Sure, he's not playing that great, but if we construct counterfactuals that apply to him and him alone, he would be!" while the case for Stafford is "He's playing great, and if we construct counterfactuals he's playing even better still!" and the case for Manning is "His performance on the field is better than any other quarterback in history, no counterfactuals necessary."
I'm all for a well-constructed counterfactual, but the MVP award is an award for what was, not what might have been. And besides, even besides his situation, Tom Brady has not looked anywhere near as good as he usually does. He's missing more open receivers than he has in the past. His accuracy is off. It's not like he's playing like 2007 Brady and his teammates are letting him down. So far this season, it's been a two-way street.
I asked earlier in this thread whether anyone thought Donovan McNabb should have been the MVP in 2000. The question still stands. McNabb led an 11-5 team with an above-average offense. He was his team's leading rusher by nearly 300 yards (the best RB was Duce Staley with 344 yards). No receiver topped 800 yards receiving (the guys who topped 100 receiving yards were Chad Lewis, Charles Johnson, Torrance Small, Darnell Autry, Cecil Martin, Duce Staley, Stanley Pritchett, Todd Pinkston, and Luther Broughten). That season's league MVP played for a team with a worse record that also featured Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Orlando Pace, among others. Should Donovan McNabb have won the MVP over Faulk that season?
How about in 2003? Philly was 12-4 with a 3-headed RB committee (Duce Staley, Correll Buckhalter, and a still-unknown guy named Westbrook). The leading rusher had 613 yards, which is better than any receiver managed- Pinkston led the team with 575 yards. Other notable receivers that year were James Thrash and Freddie Mitchell. Philly had an above-average offense again, and McNabb was the only guy to make the pro bowl. Six players received MVP votes that year, and McNabb wasn't one of them.
Where was the outrage over McNabb's snubs back in 2000 and 2003? Is it a coincidence that Tom Brady fans are selectively outraged when it's their guy getting snubbed, but couldn't care less otherwise?
I'll preface this by saying that although I was born and raised in Mass, and am a big Patriots/Brady fan, I think Manning is the clear MVP at this point.
1. You think Reggie Bush was/is JAG?
2. I'm not sure if you watched the end of the Patriots/Saints game. I did. The INT to Edelman was clearly Brady's fault, he blew that one. But to say that Brady badly blew the other attempt shows me that you either didn't watch the game or just blame everything on Brady. There were not one, not two, but three dropped passes on that 4 and out. Bolden dropped a pass that would have been an easy first down. On 4th and 5, Dobson dropped a pass that hit him in the hands and would have been an easy first down again.
I appreciate the preface, but whether you think the MVP should go to Manning, Charles, Brady, or Shane Vereen isn't as important as the merits of your argument. And you make some very good points.lbouchard said:
1. Detroit signed him for $4 million a year. You're right that JAG is unfair, that's decent starter money. Prior to joining Detroit, though, Bush had five bad years in New Orleans followed by two solid years in Miami. He was playing for his third team in four years after his two previous teams let him walk with no serious effort to retain him (despite Miami spending like drunken sailors this offseason). Coming into this season, Bush seemed very much like just a guy. A solid RB, a decent starter, not much more.
2. Fair enough, change that to "Brady had two previous attempts, one of which he badly blew". Doesn't change the fact that the defense was more instrumental to that comeback than the offense was. Lots of guys don't get one crack at a comeback with 3 minutes to go. Brady got three.
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Brett Favre on NFL Network during today's pregame, "this year has been Brady's best performance"
beef
Footballguy
Bert isnt real smart. #crocks
beef
Footballguy
#dikpix
rick6668
Footballguy
So all his previous season's he was worse than he's been so far in this one?
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
I don't know what his stats were, but he made some #### throws on that last possession. Gostkowski (MVP) bailed him out imo.
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
Fixed.
Run It Up
Footballguy
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Brady 47.8% 228 yards 1 INT
Smith 51.5% 233 yards 1 TD 1 INT, 1 rushing TD
Jets 30 - Patriots 27
GENO FOR MVP!
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Brady was considerably outplayed by Geno Smith today. Pretty embarrassing.
rick6668
Footballguy
rick6668
Footballguy
Take your own advice..Ok Brady-hater, keep thinking that the level of experience of the WR's on these teams means nothing, using NFL rankings which is based on yardage I believe:
Total Points (Rush TD / Rec TD / Ret TD / Def TD)
Broncos 6-0 [1st in total offense; 1st in passing; 15th in rushing; 31% Opp Win-PCT; 29th in Total Defense; 1st in Total Points (9/22/2/1)]
Chiefs 6-0 [25th in total offense; 26th in passing; 12th in rushing; 31% Opp Win-PCT; 5th in Total Defense; t7th in Total Points (5/7/1/4)]
Seahawks 6-1 (lost to the Colts) [11th in total offense; 24th in passing; 2nd in rushing; 43% Opp Win-PCT; 2nd in Total Defense; t3rd in Total Points (7/12/0/1)]
Patriots 5-1 (lost to Bengals, beat the Saints - the only common top 5 team opponent) [14th in total offense; 19th in passing; 11th in rushing; 44% Opp Win-PCT; 14th in Total Defense; t27th in Total Points (3/8/0/0)]
Saints 5-1 (lost to the Patriots) [5th in total offense; 3rd in passing; 23rd in rushing; 47% Opp Win-PCT; 12th in Total Defense; t7th in Total Points (3/14/0/0)]
Aside from the Saints (who lost to the Pats), the Pats have had the toughest schedule thus far.
Aside from the Broncos, Pats have the lowest ranked Total Defense.
Aside from the Saints, the Pats have scored the highest % of their TD's through the air (73%) even with Brady throwing to a slew of rookie receivers.
I look forward to bumping this thread on November 24th after the Pats beat the Broncos.
Also all of the above is BG (before-Gronk), I suspect Brady's numbers improve significantly AG (after-Gronk)
Brady BG stats:
YARDS: 1480 [r-17]
YDS/G: 247 [r-19]
YDS/A: 6.19 [r-30]
TD/A: .0335 [r-23]
INT/A: .0167 [r-t9]
RATE: 79.5 [r-23]
COMP%: 56.9 [r-27]
.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
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Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
An elite TE and elite OL isn't enough though. He still has the worst supporting cast in the history of football. Needs Randy Moss circa 1998 even though he's a dink&dunk extraordinaire who can't throw an accurate ball farther than 12yards.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Fact!!! Your MVP candidate got outplayed by a rookie qb who--who's biggest weapon is Jeremy kerley. His performance today was pedestrian at best--not even close to MVP status. Let's see what "excuses" you have.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Surprised this one made it through.
purestrength
Footballguy
Brady is the MVP of my fantasy team evey time he's in my opponents' lineup.
