Chase Stuart
Footballguy
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=495
Yesterday, I looked at how the top rookie RBs and WRs end up performing over the course of their careers. The huge failure rate among WRs reminded me of something I wrote three years ago, when I wrote the "downside" column to a debate about Anquan Boldin's 2004 fantasy value:
name rookyr rookFP rookG rkFP/G sophFP sophG soFP/G FP/G DiffMarques Colston 2006 152 14 10.8 186 16 11.6 0.8Braylon Edwards 2005 69 10 6.9 125 16 7.8 0.9Michael Clayton 2004 164 16 10.3 37 14 2.7 -7.6Anquan Boldin 2003 189 16 11.8 69 10 6.9 -4.9Donte Stallworth 2002 108 13 8.3 67 11 6.1 -2.2Chris Chambers 2001 129 16 8.1 99 15 6.6 -1.5Peter Warrick 2000 110 16 6.9 74 16 4.6 -2.2Kevin Johnson 1999 146 16 9.1 67 16 4.2 -4.9Randy Moss 1998 234 16 14.6 212 16 13.2 -1.4Rae Carruth 1997 81 15 5.4 6 2 3.0 -2.4Terry Glenn 1996 153 15 10.2 55 9 6.1 -4.1Joey Galloway 1995 167 16 10.5 153 16 9.6 -0.9Darnay Scott 1994 130 16 8.1 113 16 7.1 -1.0Horace Copeland 1993 91 14 6.5 31 16 1.9 -4.6Arthur Marshall 1992 69 16 4.3 48 16 3.0 -1.3Lawrence Dawsey 1991 107 16 6.7 84 15 5.6 -1.1Fred Barnett 1990 121 16 7.6 119 15 7.9 0.3Hart Lee Dykes 1989 110 16 6.8 67 10 6.7 -0.2Brian Blades 1988 119 16 7.4 137 16 8.5 1.1Bruce Hill 1987 53 8 6.6 157 14 11.2 4.6Bill Brooks 1986 162 16 10.1 90 12 7.5 -2.6Eddie Brown 1985 155 16 9.7 124 16 7.7 -2.0Louis Lipps 1984 153 14 10.9 193 16 12.1 1.1Willie Gault 1983 135 16 8.4 95 16 5.9 -2.5Charlie Brown 1982 117 9 13.0 176 15 11.7 -1.3CrisCollinsworth 1981 149 16 9.3 75 9 8.3 -1.0Kevin House 1980 86 14 6.2 173 16 10.8 4.6Jerry Butler 1979 109 13 8.4 121 16 7.6 -0.8John Jefferson 1978 179 14 12.8 169 15 11.3 -1.5Wesley Walker 1977 95 14 6.8 165 16 10.3 3.5Sammy White 1976 150 14 10.7 130 14 9.3 -1.4Alfred Jenkins 1975 113 14 8.1 107 14 7.6 -0.4Nat Moore 1974 76 13 5.8 101 14 7.2 1.4Isaac Curtis 1973 137 14 9.8 130 14 9.3 -0.6Mike Siani 1972 80 14 5.7 92 14 6.6 0.9Randy Vataha 1971 141 14 10.1 49 14 3.5 -6.6Ron Shanklin 1970 93 14 6.7 101 14 7.2 0.6 125.1 14.5 8.6 108 14.1 7.5 -1.1Eleven of the thirty-seven WRs improved in their second season, and twenty-six regressed. This isn't terribly surprising in light of regression to the mean, but an opposing force is that sophomores generally outperform rookies. Obviously fourteen of the last sixteen stud rookies regressed the next year, but the last two improved slightly. People with diverse reviews of the Dwayne Bowe Show will probably see what they want to see there.I never looked at the running backs, so let's do that now.
name rookyr rookFP rookG rkFP/G sophFP sophG soFP/G FP/G DiffMauriceJonesDrew 2006 228 16 14.2 172 15 11.4 -2.8Samkon Gado 2005 108 8 13.5 0 1 - 0.2 -13.7Julius Jones 2004 135 8 16.9 151 13 11.6 -5.2Dom(Davis)Willia 2003 186 14 13.3 262 15 17.4 4.1Clinton Portis 2002 289 16 18.1 275 13 21.1 3.0LaDainian Tomlin 2001 220 16 13.8 307 16 19.2 5.4Mike Anderson 2000 256 16 16.0 96 16 6.0 -10.0Edgerrin James 1999 316 16 19.7 338 16 21.1 1.4Fred Taylor 1998 266 15 17.8 118 10 11.8 -6.0Corey Dillon 1997 199 16 12.4 161 15 10.7 -1.7Eddie George 1996 203 16 12.7 186 16 11.6 -1.0Curtis Martin 1995 265 16 16.6 251 16 15.7 -0.9Marshall Faulk 1994 252 16 15.8 239 16 15.0 -0.8Jerome Bettis 1993 209 16 13.1 156 16 9.7 -3.3Ricky Watters 1992 208 14 14.8 194 13 14.9 0.0Leonard Russell 1991 128 16 8.0 53 11 4.9 -3.1Emmitt Smith 1990 183 16 11.4 260 16 16.3 4.9Barry Sanders 1989 259 15 17.3 274 16 17.2 -0.1Ickey Woods 1988 217 16 13.5 21 2 10.7 -2.8Bo Jackson 1987 105 7 15.0 84 10 8.4 -6.6Herschel Walker 1986 241 16 15.1 209 12 17.4 2.3Kevin Mack 1985 200 16 12.5 156 12 13.0 0.5Greg Bell 1984 186 16 11.6 200 16 12.5 0.9Eric Dickerson 1983 341 16 21.3 308 16 19.3 -2.1Marcus Allen 1982 196 9 21.8 226 16 14.2 -7.6George Rogers 1981 258 16 16.1 74 6 12.3 -3.9Billy Sims 1980 288 16 18.0 279 14 19.9 1.9Ottis Anderson 1979 251 16 15.7 220 16 13.8 -2.0Earl Campbell 1978 228 15 15.2 293 16 18.3 3.1Tony Dorsett 1977 208 14 14.8 224 16 14.0 -0.8Tony Galbreath 1976 147 14 10.5 109 14 7.8 -2.7Mike Thomas 1975 182 14 13.0 193 13 14.9 1.8Don Woods 1974 216 12 18.0 54 5 10.8 -7.2Boobie Clark 1973 182 14 13.0 87 8 10.8 -2.1Franco Harris 1972 190 14 13.5 95 12 7.9 -5.6Vic Washington 1971 155 14 11.1 110 13 8.5 -2.6Duane Thomas 1970 118 14 8.4 173 11 15.7 7.3 211.3 14.5 14.7 179 12.9 13.1 -1.6Samkon Gado and Mike Anderson lost their jobs before the next season even started, so I'm not sure how "fair" it is to use them in this data set. Further, their huge drops really hurt the average -- take them out, and the average dropoff falls under one. It's also worth noting that regression to the mean applies to running backs as well, and they have a farther perch from which to fall -- the top rookies averaged six more fantasy points per game than the top receivers. I'm pretty confident in stating that the top running backs hold their value as sophomores better than the receivers, although the results aren't as disparate as yesterday.Thirteen of the 37 running backs improved as sophomores, and twenty four have declined. Over the last eight years, it's been a 50/50 split, after ten of the twelve rookies from '87 to '98 regressed. In the last eight years, two of the four "regressers" lost their starting jobs, and Julius Jones was a poor bet to match his total since he played at a 394-carry pace in just eight games as a rookie. So if anything, the trend seems to be that the rookie RBs that excel are at least decent bets to hold their value, especially when you remember that the top RBs as a group decline every year. In other words, I wouldn't downgrade Adrian Peterson because of the sophomore slump, assuming I wouldn't downgrade him for some other reason. I'm not so sure if I feel the same way about Dwayne Bowe, although it's way too early to get a good read on the 2008 Kansas City Chiefs offense.
Yesterday, I looked at how the top rookie RBs and WRs end up performing over the course of their careers. The huge failure rate among WRs reminded me of something I wrote three years ago, when I wrote the "downside" column to a debate about Anquan Boldin's 2004 fantasy value:
Well, Boldin continued the trend, and the next year, Michael Clayton became the fourteenth straight wide receiver to regress after leading his class in fantasy points per game as a rookie (note that yesterday, we looked at raw fantasy points). Since then, though, Braylon Edwards and Marques Colston have improved in their second seasons. Here's a list of the top rookie (measured by FP/G) WR each season since the merger, and then how they performed the next year.
name rookyr rookFP rookG rkFP/G sophFP sophG soFP/G FP/G DiffMarques Colston 2006 152 14 10.8 186 16 11.6 0.8Braylon Edwards 2005 69 10 6.9 125 16 7.8 0.9Michael Clayton 2004 164 16 10.3 37 14 2.7 -7.6Anquan Boldin 2003 189 16 11.8 69 10 6.9 -4.9Donte Stallworth 2002 108 13 8.3 67 11 6.1 -2.2Chris Chambers 2001 129 16 8.1 99 15 6.6 -1.5Peter Warrick 2000 110 16 6.9 74 16 4.6 -2.2Kevin Johnson 1999 146 16 9.1 67 16 4.2 -4.9Randy Moss 1998 234 16 14.6 212 16 13.2 -1.4Rae Carruth 1997 81 15 5.4 6 2 3.0 -2.4Terry Glenn 1996 153 15 10.2 55 9 6.1 -4.1Joey Galloway 1995 167 16 10.5 153 16 9.6 -0.9Darnay Scott 1994 130 16 8.1 113 16 7.1 -1.0Horace Copeland 1993 91 14 6.5 31 16 1.9 -4.6Arthur Marshall 1992 69 16 4.3 48 16 3.0 -1.3Lawrence Dawsey 1991 107 16 6.7 84 15 5.6 -1.1Fred Barnett 1990 121 16 7.6 119 15 7.9 0.3Hart Lee Dykes 1989 110 16 6.8 67 10 6.7 -0.2Brian Blades 1988 119 16 7.4 137 16 8.5 1.1Bruce Hill 1987 53 8 6.6 157 14 11.2 4.6Bill Brooks 1986 162 16 10.1 90 12 7.5 -2.6Eddie Brown 1985 155 16 9.7 124 16 7.7 -2.0Louis Lipps 1984 153 14 10.9 193 16 12.1 1.1Willie Gault 1983 135 16 8.4 95 16 5.9 -2.5Charlie Brown 1982 117 9 13.0 176 15 11.7 -1.3CrisCollinsworth 1981 149 16 9.3 75 9 8.3 -1.0Kevin House 1980 86 14 6.2 173 16 10.8 4.6Jerry Butler 1979 109 13 8.4 121 16 7.6 -0.8John Jefferson 1978 179 14 12.8 169 15 11.3 -1.5Wesley Walker 1977 95 14 6.8 165 16 10.3 3.5Sammy White 1976 150 14 10.7 130 14 9.3 -1.4Alfred Jenkins 1975 113 14 8.1 107 14 7.6 -0.4Nat Moore 1974 76 13 5.8 101 14 7.2 1.4Isaac Curtis 1973 137 14 9.8 130 14 9.3 -0.6Mike Siani 1972 80 14 5.7 92 14 6.6 0.9Randy Vataha 1971 141 14 10.1 49 14 3.5 -6.6Ron Shanklin 1970 93 14 6.7 101 14 7.2 0.6 125.1 14.5 8.6 108 14.1 7.5 -1.1Eleven of the thirty-seven WRs improved in their second season, and twenty-six regressed. This isn't terribly surprising in light of regression to the mean, but an opposing force is that sophomores generally outperform rookies. Obviously fourteen of the last sixteen stud rookies regressed the next year, but the last two improved slightly. People with diverse reviews of the Dwayne Bowe Show will probably see what they want to see there.I never looked at the running backs, so let's do that now.
name rookyr rookFP rookG rkFP/G sophFP sophG soFP/G FP/G DiffMauriceJonesDrew 2006 228 16 14.2 172 15 11.4 -2.8Samkon Gado 2005 108 8 13.5 0 1 - 0.2 -13.7Julius Jones 2004 135 8 16.9 151 13 11.6 -5.2Dom(Davis)Willia 2003 186 14 13.3 262 15 17.4 4.1Clinton Portis 2002 289 16 18.1 275 13 21.1 3.0LaDainian Tomlin 2001 220 16 13.8 307 16 19.2 5.4Mike Anderson 2000 256 16 16.0 96 16 6.0 -10.0Edgerrin James 1999 316 16 19.7 338 16 21.1 1.4Fred Taylor 1998 266 15 17.8 118 10 11.8 -6.0Corey Dillon 1997 199 16 12.4 161 15 10.7 -1.7Eddie George 1996 203 16 12.7 186 16 11.6 -1.0Curtis Martin 1995 265 16 16.6 251 16 15.7 -0.9Marshall Faulk 1994 252 16 15.8 239 16 15.0 -0.8Jerome Bettis 1993 209 16 13.1 156 16 9.7 -3.3Ricky Watters 1992 208 14 14.8 194 13 14.9 0.0Leonard Russell 1991 128 16 8.0 53 11 4.9 -3.1Emmitt Smith 1990 183 16 11.4 260 16 16.3 4.9Barry Sanders 1989 259 15 17.3 274 16 17.2 -0.1Ickey Woods 1988 217 16 13.5 21 2 10.7 -2.8Bo Jackson 1987 105 7 15.0 84 10 8.4 -6.6Herschel Walker 1986 241 16 15.1 209 12 17.4 2.3Kevin Mack 1985 200 16 12.5 156 12 13.0 0.5Greg Bell 1984 186 16 11.6 200 16 12.5 0.9Eric Dickerson 1983 341 16 21.3 308 16 19.3 -2.1Marcus Allen 1982 196 9 21.8 226 16 14.2 -7.6George Rogers 1981 258 16 16.1 74 6 12.3 -3.9Billy Sims 1980 288 16 18.0 279 14 19.9 1.9Ottis Anderson 1979 251 16 15.7 220 16 13.8 -2.0Earl Campbell 1978 228 15 15.2 293 16 18.3 3.1Tony Dorsett 1977 208 14 14.8 224 16 14.0 -0.8Tony Galbreath 1976 147 14 10.5 109 14 7.8 -2.7Mike Thomas 1975 182 14 13.0 193 13 14.9 1.8Don Woods 1974 216 12 18.0 54 5 10.8 -7.2Boobie Clark 1973 182 14 13.0 87 8 10.8 -2.1Franco Harris 1972 190 14 13.5 95 12 7.9 -5.6Vic Washington 1971 155 14 11.1 110 13 8.5 -2.6Duane Thomas 1970 118 14 8.4 173 11 15.7 7.3 211.3 14.5 14.7 179 12.9 13.1 -1.6Samkon Gado and Mike Anderson lost their jobs before the next season even started, so I'm not sure how "fair" it is to use them in this data set. Further, their huge drops really hurt the average -- take them out, and the average dropoff falls under one. It's also worth noting that regression to the mean applies to running backs as well, and they have a farther perch from which to fall -- the top rookies averaged six more fantasy points per game than the top receivers. I'm pretty confident in stating that the top running backs hold their value as sophomores better than the receivers, although the results aren't as disparate as yesterday.Thirteen of the 37 running backs improved as sophomores, and twenty four have declined. Over the last eight years, it's been a 50/50 split, after ten of the twelve rookies from '87 to '98 regressed. In the last eight years, two of the four "regressers" lost their starting jobs, and Julius Jones was a poor bet to match his total since he played at a 394-carry pace in just eight games as a rookie. So if anything, the trend seems to be that the rookie RBs that excel are at least decent bets to hold their value, especially when you remember that the top RBs as a group decline every year. In other words, I wouldn't downgrade Adrian Peterson because of the sophomore slump, assuming I wouldn't downgrade him for some other reason. I'm not so sure if I feel the same way about Dwayne Bowe, although it's way too early to get a good read on the 2008 Kansas City Chiefs offense.
