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I dont care what system you are in. if you rush for that many yards, you are a damn good running back
For his entire career all he has done is produce, what's the problem with acknowledging that he is a darn good back?
Why is that a HUGE IF?
Just do the math and you'll see how hard it is. He'll need 400 carries and avg 5ypc. Possible? Of course. But highly, highly unlikely.
B/C with the carries he needs to get to 2000 yrds there's a greater chance he'll get hurt
He is already averaging 5.4 YPC, so I do not see that dropping off too much (I see him finishing around 5.0 for the year). The 400 carries is what will be difficult to get to, although he already has 49 in two games, and that despite not having any clock-killing carries (meaning trying to run the ball with a lead late in the game) since both games were won at the very end. I think, given the success of a few RBs who weren't nearly as good as Henry in Denver, 2,000 is attainable for him, IF he stays healthy.
Technically, you are correct but come on broseph... you're honestly believe 2 games is enough to measure his ypc... in other words, do you really think he's going to maintain that over a full schedule?
He avgeraged 4.5 per rush on 270 carries last year, in a rushing offense that's not anywhere close to Denver's. I don't see any reason why he can't maintain that 5.4 for a full season barring any injury. Even if he is injured, if you're smart enough to have selvin young on the roster, he should have similiar numbers.
Henry has played all 16 games in a season only 1 out of his 6 seasons in the league. That IS the definiton of a HUGE IF.
Frank Gore did last year behind a pretty crappy SF O-line at 5.4 for the year. I don't think the issue for Henry will be the YPC, but more the carries. There's enough carries that should go to the other backs to cut into him enough that will likely keep him from getting 2000, but as I said above, it's definitely possible (just not likely). But, I think he's got the best shot of any RB this year to break 2000 if anyone were to do it.
Missed games does NOT equal injury. He had suspensions due to drugs and he was a backup for 3 of those 6 years. Go back and look at his actual injury history and it's not anymore significant than almost any RB in the league. With the exception of a broken leg back in 2004 that cause him to miss about half the season, he's had no other major injuries and missed only 2 other games due to injuries. Don't assume that because he didn't play 16 games that he's had injuries or injury prone. Check the facts.
Agree. still dont think it will happen though. What about this... if Denver gets into a situation where they have the division locked up do you see Henry sitting or getting minimal carries? I haven't written off san diego, just giving a hypothetical. Either way, I just dont see him getting 400 carries. That's more of the issue.
Hard to say, but I wouldn't be surprised. And if he can maintain that YPC, he would need 370 carries to reach 2,000 yards, or 23 per game the rest of the way. That is definitely doable.
I don't care if he misses games because of his Grandmother having the sniffles. Missed games is missed games. He has had a broken leg, numerous rib injuries and his suspensions for drugs. 1 out of 6 says it all. Don't be hatin because you spent a high pick on Henry and your season rides on him being available come playoff time. He might be ok, but the percentages are not in your favor.
why would you think this?
lol, no there isn't.
Because Shanahan has a history of going with RBBC? Oh, wait...
I must question the rationale behind this comment too.
Denver rushed for 2361, 2378, and 2468 yards in Terrell Davis's heyday (with the 2,000 yard season coming when Denver, as a team, rushed for 2468 total). That's an average of 2402 per year. Denver rushed for 2333, 2539, and 2152 yards in the past three seasons, which averages to 2341 per year- and Denver had 2629 the year before that, which marks twice in the past 4 years that they've exceeded the yardage they produced when TD went for 2,000 by a significant margin. So yes, Denver's running game is still operating at as high of a level as it always has been, and that high level has already proven in the past to be sufficient to support a 2,000 yard rusher. As a result, yes I believe he CAN approach 2,000, and yes, the Denver running game really IS that good.With that said, I think it's very unlikely that Henry manages to break 2,000 yards. Terrell Davis needed two things for it to happen- he needed incredible running success by the team, and he needed a herculean percentage of the team's total carries (86%). Henry is currently getting 78%, and I actually expect that to decline a little bit and settle down around 70% or less by the end of the season. Denver as a team might account for more rushing than it did in 1998, but I think the chances are very slim that Henry as an individual accounts for more rushing than Terrell Davis did in 1998.
Oddly enough, I'm going to buck the trend and agree with this guy. I don't think Denver will become an RBBC, but I think it will move MORE TOWARDS becoming one. Henry's currently getting 78% of the carries. I predict he'll be finishing the season in the 65-70% range, which naturally means that Denver will move MORE TOWARDS being an RBBC, and Selvin Young will start to see more carries in the coming weeks.Henry's currently averaging 24.5 carries per game. That's too high. It's going to come down, and those extra carries are going to have to go somewhere.
