Trevor Hoffman signs with the Brewers (1 Viewer)

[trader jake]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.

Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

 

[Da Guru]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Hoffmans best days are well behind hin.

 

[trader jake]

link

Hey, it just broke...how great did you expect the link to be.

1 year deal.

 

[trader jake]

Hoffmans best days are well behind hin.

No doubt but he still converted 30 of 34 saves last season.The Crew's closer last year ended up being Salomon Torres who converted 77% of his save opportunities.Can Hoffman convert 75%+ of his save opportunities in 2009?

 

[strykerpks]

Now the Crew needs to try to get Sheets back for a year, maybe two. Its going to be tough for Hoffman to save games if they can't get to the 9th with a lead.

 

[MAC_32]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?Quote:As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves. However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him. His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter. Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

 

[Mr.Pack]

Now the Crew needs to try to get Sheets back for a year, maybe two. Its going to be tough for Hoffman to save games if they can't get to the 9th with a lead.

XThey need Cameron and Hoffman to convince Peavy to come here now.

 

[Eephus]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.

Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?Quote:

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.

Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

This sounds pretty logical and not in a good way for the Brewers.In general, I think Melvin has done a good job as GM but it seems like a repeat of the Gagne deal from last year. At best, it's a stop gap measure. At worst, it's paying $10M for a guy who's likely to fail.

I've never understood the mystique of the proven closertm. GMs and Managers have a tendency to give the ball to guys like Hoffman and Joe Borowski, who have more experience than stuff. They primarily get measured by their SV totals, which isn't the best way to determine effectiveness. The higher risk, higher upside move is to put a younger, cheaper, harder thrower in the closer role (e.g. Papelbon, Brian Wilson). Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn't. I'm wondering if some of this is a** covering on the part of Management. If Hoffman fails next year, the Brewers can blame Hoffman, but if they try Villanueva or Dillard and they bomb, it would be viewed as a failure of management.

Oh well, at least Hoffman is better than Jorge Julio.

 

[MAC_32]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.

Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?Quote:

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.

Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

Didn't realize Miller Park was that friendly to hitters, I think your 4.30/4.40 projection sounds about right. Still, a lot better than Gagne.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.

Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?Quote:

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.

Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

This sounds pretty logical and not in a good way for the Brewers.In general, I think Melvin has done a good job as GM but it seems like a repeat of the Gagne deal from last year. At best, it's a stop gap measure. At worst, it's paying $10M for a guy who's likely to fail.

I've never understood the mystique of the proven closertm. GMs and Managers have a tendency to give the ball to guys like Hoffman and Joe Borowski, who have more experience than stuff. They primarily get measured by their SV totals, which isn't the best way to determine effectiveness. The higher risk, higher upside move is to put a younger, cheaper, harder thrower in the closer role (e.g. Papelbon, Brian Wilson). Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn't. I'm wondering if some of this is a** covering on the part of Management. If Hoffman fails next year, the Brewers can blame Hoffman, but if they try Villanueva or Dillard and they bomb, it would be viewed as a failure of management.

Oh well, at least Hoffman is better than Jorge Julio.

I agree, but for what its worth the deal is now being reported as a one year contract, no club option, at $6 million in salary and $1.5 million in incentives, based on games finished. He needs to finish 35 games to get any of the incentive cash, and 52 games to get the entire $1.5MM.

 

[Eephus]

Yep, Hells Bells will be playing in Milwaukee this season.

Is he still a reliable closer or is he another Eric Gagne?

Somewhere in the middle, I still don't know what the Brew Crew saw in Gagne last year. His best performances coincided with when he was likely juiced up. He's been injured and ineffective since, probably because he stopped juicing.I'd expect Hoffman to be an adequate stopgap.

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?Quote:

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.

Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

This sounds pretty logical and not in a good way for the Brewers.In general, I think Melvin has done a good job as GM but it seems like a repeat of the Gagne deal from last year. At best, it's a stop gap measure. At worst, it's paying $10M for a guy who's likely to fail.

I've never understood the mystique of the proven closertm. GMs and Managers have a tendency to give the ball to guys like Hoffman and Joe Borowski, who have more experience than stuff. They primarily get measured by their SV totals, which isn't the best way to determine effectiveness. The higher risk, higher upside move is to put a younger, cheaper, harder thrower in the closer role (e.g. Papelbon, Brian Wilson). Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn't. I'm wondering if some of this is a** covering on the part of Management. If Hoffman fails next year, the Brewers can blame Hoffman, but if they try Villanueva or Dillard and they bomb, it would be viewed as a failure of management.

Oh well, at least Hoffman is better than Jorge Julio.

I agree, but for what its worth the deal is now being reported as a one year contract, no club option, at $6 million in salary and $1.5 million in incentives, based on games finished. He needs to finish 35 games to get any of the incentive cash, and 52 games to get the entire $1.5MM.

$6M for 50 IPs works out to a Zitoesque $120K per inning.

 

[trader jake]

What does an ERA of 3.77 at Petco translate to at Miller Park?

Quote:

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP - flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.

Link didn't work - Got it from RotoJunkie.com

Great stuff Johnny U. 4.35 sounds about right to me.

This sounds pretty logical and not in a good way for the Brewers.

In general, I think Melvin has done a good job as GM but it seems like a repeat of the Gagne deal from last year. At best, it's a stop gap measure. At worst, it's paying $10M for a guy who's likely to fail.

I've never understood the mystique of the proven closertm. GMs and Managers have a tendency to give the ball to guys like Hoffman and Joe Borowski, who have more experience than stuff. They primarily get measured by their SV totals, which isn't the best way to determine effectiveness. The higher risk, higher upside move is to put a younger, cheaper, harder thrower in the closer role (e.g. Papelbon, Brian Wilson). Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn't. I'm wondering if some of this is a** covering on the part of Management. If Hoffman fails next year, the Brewers can blame Hoffman, but if they try Villanueva or Dillard and they bomb, it would be viewed as a failure of management.

Oh well, at least Hoffman is better than Jorge Julio.

Interesting take on GM's in regards to closers. The CYA aspect of it does have some merit.