Trip’s Top 3 Most Overvalued WRs – Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

[jvdesigns2002]

Nonsense? Post just one factual claim and back it up.

So far,

Odell is still hurt, false. 

Odell is injury prone over the other WR’s, false.

Odell is a problem child over Julio, false.

Odell’s targets will tank more than the others, false.

Odell is TD dependent, false.

Earlier in the thread, I probed the OP's position on why he thought Odell was overvalued--and he mentioned that he'd rather take Julio there because "Odell was td dependent". I followed up that statement with stats that showed that over the course of both of their careers that they both average virtually the same number of recpts, and yards per game--but that Odell's td rate is like 70% higher. 

With that said--I would not blame anybody for drafting Julio over Beckham this season.  I wouldn't do it if Odell looks good in camp--but I certainly think that Julio is a beast too.   I think it comes down to the whole "are stats descriptive or predictive" dynamic.   Stats generally play a big part in why certain players have certain ADP's.  Changes in coaching, rosters, schemes can cause players to outperform or underperform their stats--and in turn their ADP.   I think the OP makes some good points in his original post to why he could see a possible regression from Odell. I might not agree with some of those takes--but that certainly doesn't mean that they couldn't be right.  I just think the OP did a poor job trying to use stats to back up his claims.  I think it's the "predictive" portion of analysis that really plays a part on if a player is fantasy gold or a fantasy bust at their drafting position.  The OP's predictive analysis is what he based his argument on--and he's entitled to that.   His mistake was trying to back that analysis up with statsistcs--and I think maybe you took exception to that.  Either way--whether one agrees or disagrees with particular takes or analysis--I do think that threads like this are good because they invite discussion.   I think keeping a positive tone even when having differing points of view is important in these forums. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Do you expect all three of Woods/Kupp/Cooks to provide value or just Cooks?  

I expect Kupp and Cooks. in order for that to happen STL needs to improve on its 24th ranked passing attempts from last year. I think a lot of that was trying to bring Goff along his learning curve. if I'm wrong and that's just their scheme, then Kupp will likely perform as the better wr and Cooks will drop to a flex play at best

LAR has more invested in Cooks than Kupp, so I'll bet they will be trying to get him the ball. If Watkins is so much better they could have resigned him, kept their 1st, and still had a million left over for 2018

 

[TripItUp]

Will Fuller (WR24 - FFC) - his value seems to stem from his huge TD rate with Watson as QB.  But even in that 4 game stretch, he averaged less than 6 targets/game.  Dicey.

Allen Robinson (WR19 - FFC) - Marvin Jones is going WR23.  It’s a big leap to think Trubisky will be able to weaponize Robinson better than Stafford has already done with Jones.

Fuller is really situation dependent for me, he has intriguing upside as evidenced by his insane TD rate with Watson.  If I can take on some risk and don't like the value around Fuller's ADP I find myself taking a stab at him, particularly in best ball formats.  In PPR redrafts, I'll be a lot more hesitant.

PPR totals with Watson(as a reference)

week 4:  19 points

week 5:  19 points

week 6:  14 points

week 7:  29 points

Needless to say, Fuller would have finished the #3 WR last year with that kind of production.  Obviously, you don't extrapolate small samples like that but it is one of the more intriguing statistical stretches of 2017.

A-Rob - I've been on the fence, a lot of new or young faces in Chicago with a new coaching regime.  It's tough to accurately project how it will play out for most of the Bears players.  I've been passing on him at his current ADP so I probably agree with you.

 

[TripItUp]

 That said, your avoidance of all Ram WR’s is interesting, particularly Woods/Kupp who are on the WR3/4 border.  There would seem to be value somewhere here.

Yeah, Woods may be the value here as I've been revisiting my projections for him since I started this thread.

Kupp's numbers pre-Woods injury don't justify his current ADP. 

With all three of the Rams WRs sharing targets and with a tremendous ground game and defense, I just don't see much of ceiling for any of the three Rams WRs.  

 

[TripItUp]

I expect Kupp and Cooks. in order for that to happen STL needs to improve on its 24th ranked passing attempts from last year. I think a lot of that was trying to bring Goff along his learning curve. if I'm wrong and that's just their scheme, then Kupp will likely perform as the better wr and Cooks will drop to a flex play at best

LAR has more invested in Cooks than Kupp, so I'll bet they will be trying to get him the ball. 

Kupp's numbers were pretty poor prior to the Woods injury and Woods' numbers were the best on the team...why do you expect that to flip this year?

 

[Interseptopus]

Kupp's numbers were pretty poor prior to the Woods injury and Woods were the best on the team...why do you expect that to flip this year?

level of investment 

 

[TripItUp]

Earlier in the thread, I probed the OP's position on why he thought Odell was overvalued--and he mentioned that he'd rather take Julio there because "Odell was td dependent". I followed up that statement with stats that showed that over the course of both of their careers that they both average virtually the same number of recpts, and yards per game--but that Odell's td rate is like 70% higher. 

With that said--I would not blame anybody for drafting Julio over Beckham this season.  I wouldn't do it if Odell looks good in camp--but I certainly think that Julio is a beast too.   I think it comes down to the whole "are stats descriptive or predictive" dynamic.   Stats generally play a big part in why certain players have certain ADP's.  Changes in coaching, rosters, schemes can cause players to outperform or underperform their stats--and in turn their ADP.   I think the OP makes some good points in his original post to why he could see a possible regression from Odell. I might not agree with some of those takes--but that certainly doesn't mean that they couldn't be right.  I just think the OP did a poor job trying to use stats to back up his claims.  I think it's the "predictive" portion of analysis that really plays a part on if a player is fantasy gold or a fantasy bust at their drafting position.  The OP's predictive analysis is what he based his argument on--and he's entitled to that.   His mistake was trying to back that analysis up with statsistcs--and I think maybe you took exception to that.  Either way--agree or disagree with particular takes or analysis--I do think that threads like this are good because they invite discussion.   I think keeping a positive tone even when having differing points of view is important in these forums. 

I thought I had laid out the reasons I have ODB ranked as the #6 WR(down from the #3 consensus) but perhaps I can more effectively summarize for this thread.

Risk factors include the following:

1) Coming off an ankle injury that cost him most of last season

2) Increased competition for targets from Engram/Barkley/Sharpe

3) A consistent decrease in yards per game

    2014 - 108.8

    2015 - 96.7

    2016 - 85.4

    2017 - 75.5

4) Beckham's camp is threatening a holdout

5) Emotional immaturity

6) New coaching regime, 150 targets guaranteed?  

7) Projecting double digit TDs for a 5'11 WR is a dicey proposition.

 

[Interseptopus]

I thought I had laid out the reasons I have ODB ranked as the #6 WR(down from the #3 consensus) but perhaps I can more effectively summarize for this thread.

Risk factors include the following:

1) Coming off an ankle injury that cost him most of last season

2) Increased competition for targets from Engram/Barkley/Sharpe

3) A consistent decrease in yards per game

    2014 - 108.8

    2015 - 96.7

    2016 - 85.4

    2017 - 75.5

4) Beckham's camp is threatening a holdout

5) Emotional immaturity

6) New coaching regime, 150 targets guaranteed?  

7) Projecting double digit TDs for a 5'11 WR is a dicey proposition.

This is an obvious unpopular view but one I share. this is why I sold OBJ prior to our draft. I think his value is at an all time high right now. can't really get higher.

I'd even add the uncertainty of where he's playing next year and who is throwing him footballs to the list of why I'm not a big fan in dynasty

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I thought I had laid out the reasons I have ODB ranked as the #6 WR(down from the #3 consensus) but perhaps I can more effectively summarize for this thread.

Risk factors include the following:

1) Coming off an ankle injury that cost him most of last season

2) Increased competition for targets from Engram/Barkley/Sharpe

3) A consistent decrease in yards per game

    2014 - 108.8

    2015 - 96.7

    2016 - 85.4

    2017 - 75.5

4) Beckham's camp is threatening a holdout

5) Emotional immaturity

6) New coaching regime, 150 targets guaranteed?  

7) Projecting double digit TDs for a 5'11 WR is a dicey proposition.

I think you just cemented the point I made. The vast majority of your reasoning is not stastically based- it’s predictive analysis— and there is nothing wrong with that. Sure- saquon/engram/sharpe could take targets away from him- but they also could lead to a more dynamic offense to where defenses can’t just focus solely on odell. That could open things up for him too. There have been many emotionally immature wr’s that have been fantasy beasts- chad johnson, randy moss, TO, dez, josh gordon...etc- so thats not a statistically based rationale. Again the injury and holdout are bulletpoints and solid predictive reasonings- but they are no statiscally based.  The same with the height thing.

Effectively- you are saying that odell will underperform his statistical norms through predictive analysis. It seemed to me like you were trying to earlier infer that odells stats were not as strong as Julios and I think thats where you raised some eyebrows.

 

[TripItUp]

I think you just cemented the point I made. The vast majority of your reasoning is not stastically based- it’s predictive analysis— and there is nothing wrong with that. Sure- saquon/engram/sharpe could take targets away from him- but they also could lead to a more dynamic offense to where defenses can’t just focus solely on odell. That could open things up for him too. There have been many emotionally immature wr’s that have been fantasy beasts- chad johnson, randy moss, TO, dez, josh gordon...etc- so thats not a statistically based rationale. Again the injury and holdout are bulletpoints and solid predictive reasonings- but they are no statiscally based.  The same with the height thing.

Effectively- you are saying that odell will underperform his statistical norms through predictive analysis. It seemed to me like you were trying to earlier infer that odells stats were not as strong as Julios and I think thats where you raised some eyebrows.

I refer to it as qualitative analysis(not predictive), but yes, there are a lot of factors that I mention that aren't statistical.  I'm educated in science so I often refer to qualitative and quantitative analysis, but in this case I think I've provided both.  If people are more hesitant to put faith in qualitative factors, I get that, they are less tangible and often times more difficult to digest base on one's own experiences.

Also, from a consistency perspective, Julio's number are absolutely more convincing than ODB's although some of his stats saw a modest decline last year with a new OC.

 

[monk]

Perhaps, I'll take Julio and let somebody else find out.

Julio is possibly the most overrated WR in the NFL - 1 double digit TD season in 7 years on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL

Odell had as many TDs (3) last year in (4 Games 2 starts) as Julio in 16 starts 

• Odell - TD totals, 12,13, 10, 3  (38)
  
• Julio  - TD Totals   6,  8 , 6,  3  (23)
  

Per 16 game average

• Tgt     Rec    Yds       TDs
  
• 170    107    1506       13    
  
• 169    108    1657        6
  

 

[TripItUp]

Julio is possibly the most overrated WR in the NFL - 1 double digit TD season in 7 years on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL

Odell had as many TDs (3) last year in (4 Games 2 starts) as Julio in 16 starts 

• Odell - TD totals, 12,13, 10, 3  (38)
  
• Julio  - TD Totals   6,  8 , 6,  3  (23)
  

Per 16 game average

• Tgt     Rec    Yds       TDs
  
• 170    107    1506       13    
  
• 169    108    1657        6
  

we all know the TD deltas...you can assume those making arguments in this thread know the stats.

 

[Interseptopus]

maybe it's the evidence based practitioner in me, but statistics and trends seem to be a much better method to predict performance than hopes, dreams, and "what ifs" or "could's"

At the end of the day the pie is only so big. and when you have big mouths to feed, chances are the biggest gets the largest cut as he has the most to lose. 

and FWIW I agree that Julio is very overrated. 

I honestly see a big change at the top of the QB and WR top lists

 

[Bojang0301]

If player A had three full seasons of scoring double digit TD’s and player B had 1 out of 7 full seasons with double digit TD’s, I’m not sure how you could possibly instill fear based solely on height. They both look like trends to me. One has a nose and is targeted in the end zone/red zone or finds a way and one does not have a strength in the end zone and I could care less if player A is 5’6 and player B is 6’9.

I do believe Julio is due for a regression to the norm for his target volume (i.e. more TD’s) but I have not done his projection yet. 

 

[Bojang0301]

maybe it's the evidence based practitioner in me, but statistics and trends seem to be a much better method to predict performance than hopes, dreams, and "what ifs" or "could's"

At the end of the day the pie is only so big. and when you have big mouths to feed, chances are the biggest gets the largest cut as he has the most to lose. 

and FWIW I agree that Julio is very overrated. 

I honestly see a big change at the top of the QB and WR top lists

I don’t agree with you on Odell though. Manning has been sub par (at best) during Odell’s entire career. He forced Engram to become a stud TE last year even though he looked terrible doing it. Looking at Shumers track record with RB’s I’m projecting Shepard and Engram to be hurt in the target category and not Odell. Shurmer’s offenses in Minnesota definitely supported multiple players having an active share. As far as NYG though, the targets will revolve around Odell and the rest will fall as they may. He’s healthy, he participated in OTA’s and has been shown cutting with ferocity. His track record is as stellar as anyone since Moss. 

Wondering who you see taking the mantle at WR? Cooper, Evans, Robinson?

 

[Interseptopus]

I don’t agree with you on Odell though. Manning has been sub par (at best) during Odell’s entire career. He forced Engram to become a stud TE last year even though he looked terrible doing it. Looking at Shumers track record with RB’s I’m projecting Shepard and Engram to be hurt in the target category and not Odell. Shurmer’s offenses in Minnesota definitely supported multiple players having an active share. As far as NYG though, the targets will revolve around Odell and the rest will fall as they may. He’s healthy, he participated in OTA’s and has been shown cutting with ferocity. His track record is as stellar as anyone since Moss. 

Wondering who you see taking the mantle at WR? Cooper, Evans, Robinson?

#1? Hopkins. I just see a lot of shuffling across the board. the top of the QBs and WRs has been fairly steady the last 2 or 3 years. its prime for some big moves. Hopkins is not a big move but I see a lot of younger guys moving up, especially at qb

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Digest this as you please.  I'm going to look at the football seasons from 2014-2015-2016 in regards to Odell.  I'm purposely leaving 2017 out as Beckham got hurt early enough in the season to where the sample size isn't large enough for accurate analysis.  What I am looking at is how the effectiveness of the Giants run game has factored into Odell's production.  I have looked up the number of running plays, the total rushing yards, and the average yards per rushing play the Giants have had for each of the seasons.   Look at how they compare to Odell's production. 

2014  giants ran 449 rushing plays with a 3.6 yard per play average. 

2015 giants ran 403 rushing plays with a 4.0 yard per play average

2016 giants ran 398 rushing plays with a 3.5 yard per play average. 

Odell's stats

2014- 91 recps, 1305 yards, 12tds, 14.3 yards per reception

2015-96recps, 1450 yards, 13 tds, 15.1 yards per reception

2016-101 recps 1367 yards, 10 tds, 13.5 yards per recption. 

If you look at the correlation between the effectiveness of the Giants rushing game and Odell's effectiveness--they is a direct relationship.  The more effective the running game--the more yards per catch and more effective Odell is.  If you look at 2015 Odells best season--it was also the most effective rushing season the giants had of the 3 in regards to rushing yards per play.   If Saquon can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the Giants running game--historically this would be a good thing for Odell--not a bad one. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

7) Projecting double digit TDs for a 5'11 WR is a dicey proposition.

Antonio Brown down?

 

[TripItUp]

Antonio Brown down?

exception, not the rule.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

You mean exceptional talent, just like OBJ.

 

[shadrap]

No you haven’t and this is another obvious dodge. You have no FACTUAL basis. Just skewed personal bias. Just say it so people know not to weigh this into their own rankings/drafting.

It's based on his opinion.   If we all had the same projections for players it would wreck FF.  I think too many mouths to feed in NY,  but probably 50-50 that I'm wrong.

 

[Ilov80s]

exception, not the rule.

After 47 career games, OBJ has a 16 game pace of 13 TDs. It seems very reasonable to count him as an exception as well. 

 

[Gally]

After 47 career games, OBJ has a 16 game pace of 13 TDs. It seems very reasonable to count him as an exception as well. 

Careful.....that will just lead to the argument that OBJ is TD dependent.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I thought I had laid out the reasons I have ODB ranked as the #6 WR(down from the #3 consensus) but perhaps I can more effectively summarize for this thread.

Risk factors include the following:

1) Coming off an ankle injury that cost him most of last season

2) Increased competition for targets from Engram/Barkley/Sharpe

3) A consistent decrease in yards per game

    2014 - 108.8

    2015 - 96.7

    2016 - 85.4

    2017 - 75.5

4) Beckham's camp is threatening a holdout

5) Emotional immaturity

6) New coaching regime, 150 targets guaranteed?  

7) Projecting double digit TDs for a 5'11 WR is a dicey proposition.

Trip, I applaud you for making the bold call, even though I don't necessarily agree with it. But I find it bizarre that you managed to go 7-deep on your list here without even touching on what is IMO the single biggest red flag for OBJ: Eli Manning.

Folks talk about how Eli has been "bad for Beckham's entire career", but that's simply inaccurate. Here are his ANY/A totals for the past four seasons:

• 2014 = 6.67 (12th among qualified QBs)
  
• 2015 = 6.74 (10th)
  
• 2016 = 5.95 (22nd)
  
• 2017 = 5.11 (25th, between Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky) - yes, this included 11 games without OBJ, but ... oof.
  

Eli has fallen off the table and, at 38 this season, how likely is he to turn this around?

So what, you say, plenty of stud WRs put up big numbers with poor QB play. Except that's not really accurate, either. In the past 10 seasons, there have been 113 total 250+ point PPR seasons put up by receivers. Know how many of those 113 came from a QB who averaged less than 5.9 ANY/A (last year's league average)?

Ten. 10 out of 113. Jarvis Landry's 2017 was the first such season in four years.

It's really hard to be a stud fantasy WR with bad QB play. Now, the names on that top-10 list include a bunch of HOF-level talents - Megatron, Green, Gonzalez, Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall - so if anyone could add their name to that list, it'd be someone like Beckham.

But OBJ at WR3 seems to me a high-stakes bet on an Eli turnaround. And that's not a gamble I feel like taking.

 

[TripItUp]

Trip, I applaud you for making the bold call, even though I don't necessarily agree with it. But I find it bizarre that you managed to go 7-deep on your list here without even touching on what is IMO the single biggest red flag for OBJ: Eli Manning.

Folks talk about how Eli has been "bad for Beckham's entire career", but that's simply inaccurate. Here are his ANY/A totals for the past four seasons:

• 2014 = 6.67 (12th among qualified QBs)
  
• 2015 = 6.74 (10th)
  
• 2016 = 5.95 (22nd)
  
• 2017 = 5.11 (25th, between Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky) - yes, this included 11 games without OBJ, but ... oof.
  

Eli has fallen off the table and, at 38 this season, how likely is he to turn this around?

So what, you say, plenty of stud WRs put up big numbers with poor QB play. Except that's not really accurate, either. In the past 10 seasons, there have been 113 total 250+ point PPR seasons put up by receivers. Know how many of those 113 came from a QB who averaged less than 5.9 ANY/A (last year's league average)?

Ten. 10 out of 113. Jarvis Landry's 2017 was the first such season in four years.

It's really hard to be a stud fantasy WR with bad QB play. Now, the names on that top-10 list include a bunch of HOF-level talents - Megatron, Green, Gonzalez, Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall - so if anyone could add their name to that list, it'd be someone like Beckham.

But OBJ at WR3 seems to me a high-stakes bet on an Eli turnaround. And that's not a gamble I feel like taking.

I agree.

 

[Tau837]

Trip, I applaud you for making the bold call, even though I don't necessarily agree with it. But I find it bizarre that you managed to go 7-deep on your list here without even touching on what is IMO the single biggest red flag for OBJ: Eli Manning.

Folks talk about how Eli has been "bad for Beckham's entire career", but that's simply inaccurate. Here are his ANY/A totals for the past four seasons:

• 2014 = 6.67 (12th among qualified QBs)
  
• 2015 = 6.74 (10th)
  
• 2016 = 5.95 (22nd)
  
• 2017 = 5.11 (25th, between Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky) - yes, this included 11 games without OBJ, but ... oof.
  

Eli has fallen off the table and, at 38 this season, how likely is he to turn this around?

So what, you say, plenty of stud WRs put up big numbers with poor QB play. Except that's not really accurate, either. In the past 10 seasons, there have been 113 total 250+ point PPR seasons put up by receivers. Know how many of those 113 came from a QB who averaged less than 5.9 ANY/A (last year's league average)?

Ten. 10 out of 113. Jarvis Landry's 2017 was the first such season in four years.

It's really hard to be a stud fantasy WR with bad QB play. Now, the names on that top-10 list include a bunch of HOF-level talents - Megatron, Green, Gonzalez, Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall - so if anyone could add their name to that list, it'd be someone like Beckham.

But OBJ at WR3 seems to me a high-stakes bet on an Eli turnaround. And that's not a gamble I feel like taking.

Great info here. As much as I appreciate Trip's take, I find this much more compelling than the reasons Trip gave for OBJ being overrated.

 

[TripItUp]

More on the Eli factor...

Here are the three WRs I have ranked over OBJ that most do not.

Julio - Matt Ryan is his QB

Keenan Allen - Phillip Rivers is his QB

Michael Thomas - Drew Brees

All 3 have significantly better QBs.

I may be talking myself into bumping Davante over OBJ too...Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Bojang0301]

Looking unhealthy here.

Also note he’s playing some out of the slot where Thielen excelled last year. I imagine Odell destroys out of the slot.

 

[Ilov80s]

Looking unhealthy here.

Also note he’s playing some out of the slot where Thielen excelled last year. I imagine Odell destroys out of the slot.

Wow that makes me very nervous to draft him- looks like his speed is gone. If he still had those jets -we remember from his younger days, he would have overran the ball and would have had to make a tough contested catch.

 

[Bojang0301]

Wow that makes me very nervous to draft him- looks like his speed is gone. If he still had those jets -we remember from his younger days, he would have overran the ball and would have had to make a tough contested catch.

Ankle is clearly nagging him.

 

[Ilov80s]

Ankle is clearly nagging him.

It was a good run.

 

[Milkman]

The Cooks/Goff connection has been great to start camp according to sources on the ground down there. Night and day difference between him and Watkins supposedly. Which doesn't surprise me. Cooks is a buy low right now because a lot of people are factoring in how he's been traded twice in two years. It's making people lower his value to much. 

Three 1000 yard seasons.

He's on what I would consider is the best offense in the league now.

He's not even 25 until a month into the season.

He signed a long term deal where he got paid nicely. He's in their long term plans.  

I'm a buyer right now. 

 

[TripItUp]

I'm still comfortable with the calls here...I have backed off my initial Amari Cooper lean.   He's a decent buy at his current ADP.  

 

[Milkman]

I'm still comfortable with the calls here...I have backed off my initial Amari Cooper lean.   He's a decent buy at his current ADP.  

Your thoughts on Cooks are not unique but that's why he's a buy for me. 

Talib has been gushing over Goff's deep ball accuracy in camp. I'm high on Goff which helps too. IMO he's a better deep ball thrower, at this point in their careers, than Brady. Brady missed Cooks a ton or Cooks drew a penalty on some deep balls too. I remember looking at his game tape a little closer after 4-5 games last year and I came away saying Cooks could easily be the #1 WR in FF right now if a couple plays broke a different way. I know that can be said about all the top WR so take that fwiw. Just my 2 cents.