Earlier in the thread, I probed the OP's position on why he thought Odell was overvalued--and he mentioned that he'd rather take Julio there because "Odell was td dependent". I followed up that statement with stats that showed that over the course of both of their careers that they both average virtually the same number of recpts, and yards per game--but that Odell's td rate is like 70% higher.Nonsense? Post just one factual claim and back it up.
Odell is still hurt, false.
Odell is injury prone over the other WR’s, false.
Odell is a problem child over Julio, false.
Odell’s targets will tank more than the others, false.
Odell is TD dependent, false.
With that said--I would not blame anybody for drafting Julio over Beckham this season. I wouldn't do it if Odell looks good in camp--but I certainly think that Julio is a beast too. I think it comes down to the whole "are stats descriptive or predictive" dynamic. Stats generally play a big part in why certain players have certain ADP's. Changes in coaching, rosters, schemes can cause players to outperform or underperform their stats--and in turn their ADP. I think the OP makes some good points in his original post to why he could see a possible regression from Odell. I might not agree with some of those takes--but that certainly doesn't mean that they couldn't be right. I just think the OP did a poor job trying to use stats to back up his claims. I think it's the "predictive" portion of analysis that really plays a part on if a player is fantasy gold or a fantasy bust at their drafting position. The OP's predictive analysis is what he based his argument on--and he's entitled to that. His mistake was trying to back that analysis up with statsistcs--and I think maybe you took exception to that. Either way--whether one agrees or disagrees with particular takes or analysis--I do think that threads like this are good because they invite discussion. I think keeping a positive tone even when having differing points of view is important in these forums.
Last edited by a moderator: