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Two Hours of Live Audible Tonight 7/29 10 pm Eastern (1 Viewer)

What's up dudes, I've got my first draft of the year this Sunday and I'm pumped up and ready to go! :yes:

It's a 12-team redraft (3rd rd reversal) 1QB-2RB-3WR-1flex-1TE with IDP. Also all TDs are worth 6 pts and it is PPR. Unfortunately I drew the 10th slot selection so I ended up with 1.08. Right now I'm thinking I should take Steven Jackson or Michael Turner at 1.08 assuming Gore and Andre Johnson is off the board and then get stud WRs the next few rounds. I was then going to target RB values like Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Barber, Caddy, Michael Bush, etc. I was planning on going QBBC around rds 8-10 also. Whatcha think??

 
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Hey guys, LOVE the work you do and appreciate (and am a bit jealous of) all the time you put into this great game.

My question concerns kickers and the value they provide in fantasy. They're obviously an afterthought most in leagues and I'm beginning to wonder why we don't just eliminate the position altogether. It seems that no one is really able to predict kicker performance year-over-year, much less week-to-week. Because of this, kicker performance is really more a function of luck than skill. As much as possible, I'd like to eliminate luck from the equation, and thus I'm considering suggesting we abandon kickers in my league.

However, I haven't really heard much about leagues that are eliminating the kicker position. Is there any movement to do this in any of the leagues you are playing in? Do either of you feel that there's a compelling reason that I'm overlooking to preserve the kicker roster spot.

Looking forward to your thoughtful responses.

P.S. Let's get Waldman on the podcast soon...as much as I appreciate your opinions, I really like Matt's takes (particularly the Crank scores)

 
Hey Guys,

So I'm sure you've already got the TO to Cincinnati issue teed up in the queue. But what I would love to hear you discuss is the danger of selection bias. We see it all the time (and we're guilty of it ourselves some times), but it's all too easy for someone to build a case around their predetermined viewpoint on a player than to let their analysis lead them to a conclusion. It's ### backwards, pardon my french. And it's not beholden to only "stat heads" but equally so people who may see a player "with their eyes" either at a college game or at a camp or on YouTube.

So walk me through your thoughts on the dangers of selection bias and perhaps one or two players that you think most commonly fit that bill this year in terms of the consensus expectations.

:angry:

 
Which 6 WRs do you see making the Bengals roster? (your chance to play the Dr. Rockso... if you don't think he makes the team, what do you see in store for his future?)

What do you think of Kelley Washington's prospects in a PPR with the Vikings if Sidney Rice's injury continues to drag out?

IDP Question - WLB Zach Diles vs SLB Stephen Nicholas vs SS Darrell Stuckey ... which would you rather have in a deep roster dynasty with balanced scoring that starts 3 LB, 2 S and a flex?

For return leagues, do you feel that Trindon Holliday has the potential to be one of those special/elite dual returners? If not, which rookie may fit this bill?

 
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Oh, and I have an IDP question :lmao:

Norton mentioned the "rookie corner" rule in his column this week and, as an IDP newbie who was foolish enough to join one of the most competitive IDP leagues in the world :bag: I'm interested in your perspective on that one.

If I understand it correctly, he's saying CBs like Kareem Jackson are worth drafting because opposing defenses will test them, thus providing them with ample opportunity to rack up tackles, defenses and INTs. Do I have that right? And if so...can you talk about some of the CBs who fit that bill, and where you would slot them in a full IDP draft?

Thanks home dizzles :cry:

 
... what I would love to hear you discuss is the danger of selection bias. We see it all the time (and we're guilty of it ourselves some times), but it's all too easy for someone to build a case around their predetermined viewpoint on a player than to let their analysis lead them to a conclusion. It's ### backwards, pardon my french. And it's not beholden to only "stat heads" but equally so people who may see a player "with their eyes" either at a college game or at a camp or on YouTube. So walk me through your thoughts on the dangers of selection bias and perhaps one or two players that you think most commonly fit that bill this year in terms of the consensus expectations. :bag:
:cry:This is a good topic. I think that NFL Network's Mike Lombardi says it well -- he makes that point that when scouting players that you should "never begin with the end in mind".
 
Do you see any of the bottom 10 or so offenses from last season really making a move upwards this year?

For example, the Jets 20th in total offense in 2009. Maybe with Sanchez in his second year, they open it up a little and move into the top 10 or so offenses. If not the Jets, who? Raiders? Chiefs? Bengals? 9ers? Panthers? Other? Or no one?

 
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Hey guys,

1. Hypothetically speaking, if there was a dynasty leagues "sale" on where you could buy players now before their value dramatically increases or vice versa, which players would you be targeting and/or trying to sell?

2. In leagues that assign contracts to all of the players on the roster, what general advice can you suggest? I've already thought about giving RBs shorter contracts, while giving WRs like Michael Crabtree more lengthy ones.

Thanks for the great work you do as always, fellas!

Dave

 
Guys, 12 team Dynasty, 42-man rosters, IDP.Salary Cap/Contract.

PPR scoring with 6 pts per TD. IDP is tackle heavy just like the IDP Survivor.

Start: qb, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) PK, 3DL, 2LB, 3DB, 2 IDP Flex

I have the 1.06, 2.03, 3.07 Rookie picks this yr and all my picks next yr besides the 1st rd.

I've been one of the top scoring teams in the league for the last 3 yrs. I just traded my 1.01 rookie pick + 5.12 + my 2011 1st pick for Ray Rice to improve my ok RB stable.

I m looking at winning it all next yr. I will make the playoff this yr, but next yr we have an accumulated prize of $3K. My current WRs are:

R White, Boldin, Ward, MSW, A. Bryant, C. Schilens. I am looking for a substitute for Ward in 2011 in case he retires..

QBs: Schaub, Favre, Campbell

RBs: R Rice, Turner, Moreno, Caddy, Norwood.Definitely starting 3RBs, with 2RBs as flex.

TEs: Finley, Gonzo, Owen Daniels. Can always use a 2nd TE as a Flex option.

DL: J Allen, Tuck, J Smith, Shaunessy

LBs: D Ryans, B Ruud, Ray Rice, S Cooper. I'd like to tart 4LBs.

DBs: Who cares...

questions:

1) what would be a fair offer for VJax if I'm only offering picks. VJax owner offered him +4.03 for 2.03 +3.07.

2) who should I target with 1.06 and 2.03 for maximum impacct in 2011? I'm thin at LB, and McLain will be gone by 1.06. If I don't trade 1.06 who would you go for assuming the first 5 picks go: Matthews, Dez, Best, Spiller, McLain.

available for Blind Bid Offers: M Floyd, Sidney Rice (contract expired), RB J Harrison, McFadden, LB Tulloch, Fletcher

 
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AUCTION DRAFT STRATEGY

Hey guys when do we get Auction 101? What is your take on the following strategies?

1. Begin the draft by throwing players I want for the league minimum salary (i.e. WR4, TE2, LB3, etc) hoping that owners will be too focused on TOP 10 players

2. If I begin the draft with a low-end QB1 (say Eli Manning) would I end-up paying more ore less than list price?

3. Is OVERPAY the most common trend in the first 12 picks of an auction? Should I throw high-priced players, I do not want, so owners spend more than list price?

General Questions:

1. What is your take on MIA defensive line woes, will the veterans they are signing make an impact? Where do you rank MIA D?

2. Is Keith Bullock NYG MLB? Should I draft him as an LB2?

3. STOP THE INSANITY: Do you think Carlson Palmer is OVER-VALUED after T.O. signing? I think he is in every ones radar (ala Justin Forsett)

 
Just for something different to talk about: In leagues that you have the option to start an extra QB in the flex position, I almost think you HAVE to take a QB in round 1 or 2, but how soon is too soon to grab your second QB?

 
What is the best strategy to use while drafting RBBC type of players. Do you want to try to grab both of the top RB's on a team or is it better to take a risk and grab 2 or 3 all from different teams? Say I roll with A. Foster and M. Bush would that be a better combo to have then Bush and McFadden?

Examples

Bush/McFadden

Jackson/Spiller/Lynch

Foster/Slaton/Tate

Jacobs/Bradshaw

Jones/Barber/Choice

Maroney/Taylor/Faulk

I actually like taking WR's and a stud QB early in PPR and trying to land 5 or 6 of the guys I listed in the examples in rounds 5-10. Hoping that half of them turn out to be stud RB's. I think Matt Waldman did an article on this and I loved the idea.

 
16 team, redraft, PPR, return yardage league

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 R/W/T, 1 Q/R/W/T

Wanted to know if you would pull the trigger on the following deal:

Give: G.Jennings, P.Thomas

Get: B.Marshall, J.Best

Here is my current roster:

QB Eli Manning

WR Greg Jennings

WR Jabar Gaffney

WR Johnny Knox

RB Ryan Grant

RB Pierre Thomas

TE Kevin Boss

W/R/T Joseph Addai

Q/W/R/T Carson Palmer

K --empty--

DEF Philadelphia

D Jerod Mayo

D Gary Brackett

DB Roman Harper

BN Toby Gerhart

BN Arellious Benn

BN Jerricho Cotchery

BN Chris Chambers

Appreciate the reponse!

 
I am torn on Knowshon Moreno. I agree that Moreno is going to be getting every opportunity to succeed in Denver. However, as a Skins fan, I know what a lack of a vertical passing game can do to your running game (see last year with Zorn). Teams can stack the box at will. In addition, another glaring similarity between Zorn and McDaniels is that they both started hot but ended their rookie season poorly. I believe that it's because teams realized that both offenses rely on the run and short passing game almost exclusively. Is season 2 of McDaniels going to be the same trainwreck as Zorn was last year, effectively killing Moreno's 2010-2011 fantasy season? In addition, McDaniels loses Marshall who is dominant on those short routes. Gaffney is a solid fantasy value, but does he and Noodle-Arm Orton really keep opposing defenses honest and prevent them from stacking 8+ in the box? Plus, Clady could miss some time this season.

Also, The Audible seems to think that the Jets will have a dominant running game and will get 500+ carries. However, both of you think Greene is going to get dinged up and are down on LT and McKnight. Is there somebody fantasy owners are overlooking or will those 3 be the benefits of the Jet's rushing attack? How do you see those 500-ish carries being split?

Finally, what type of numbers do you see Gates getting this year? Will the contract he received be indicative of his usage? Is it ridiculous that I think he will lead the NFL in receptions if Jackson holds out, especially if Welker starts out limited/slow?

 
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Gang,

Thanks for everything you guys have done over the years.

I'm drafting at the 1.11 this year and I'm waffling on what to do. Normal scoring non-ppr except passing TDs are 6pts and fumbles and INTs are -3. I'm thinking I have 3 options:

1. WR, QB

2. WR, RB

3. WR, WR

What would you do in my situation?

Jonathon

 
Is Larry Fitzgerald still a top 5 WR? It seems a lot of folks have him in their top 5, some even have him as their #1 WR. I find that really hard to swallow since Fitz has Leinart throwing him the ball and he's going to see more coverage now that Boldin is gone. Is this ranking based on his sheer talent? I don't buy it.

The reason why I ask is because I am picking #9 in a 12 team PPR and I get the feeling that I will be staring at Fitz at that #9 spot. I am exploring the idea of going WR/WR in my first two picks and I feel that someone else (ie. Moss) would be the safer choice there (assuming Andre Johnson will be gone). What are you're thoughts?

 
Hey guys,

Considering the incredibly positive things being said about Dez Bryant in training camp do you see Austin's value taking a significant hit?

 
I just started a thread on this same question...but it would be awesome to hear you guys weigh in on it:

I had been pretty fortunate in the past with targeting guys like Michael Turner, Lamont Jordan, Chester Taylor who were in the last year of a contract and about to be free agents... For the past 2 years I have not been as successful, as guys like Darren Sproles/Chester Taylor/Leon Washington didn't pan out...

Who are you targeting as potential players who might be back-ups this year that could have a starting job next year, based on the fact they will be a free agent, or the starter in front of them might move on/retire, etc....

(Here is the thread if you would prefer to respond there... I have included a list of the UFA RBs for 2011)

 
Hi guys !! Digging u fellas as always, keep up the HOF work. --- Looking back to the year when Brady went down for the season and we were then introduced to Cassell...Should that scenario play out again with any of the projected stud QB's this year - which backup has that "Matt Cassell" ora about them?

Who can come in and still be a viable fantasy QB from the backup role??

In the words of the infamous Joe Dirt...."Keep On Keeping On Brutha's"!!!!

 
Excellent work on the show guys. I have to drive to Chicago tomorrow and I'll need something to listen to. Question, what do you see in Santonio Holmes' future? He's on a one-year deal right now but what value does he have this season and beyond. Is he the best receiver on the Jets right now?

 
Just like to say wonderful show guys, but this is a question about the rookies. Is there a first round pick that is hurting thier team for by not signing with them yet?

 
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For people picking on the turn and want to wait on RB (say I get Chris Johnson in Round1) what RB pairings (viable RB#2) would you gamble on and which round?

Ie

Take Bradshaw and Jacobs in round 8/9

 
Who are the handcuffs to Michael Turner and Steven Jackson, if anyone. Snelling did well in spot duty last season but reports are that Norwood is healthy again.

 
For each position listed, which "stud" is most likely to disappoint people (versus consensus expectations) in 2010?

QB: Rodgers, Brees, Manning

RB: Chris Johnson, MJD, ADP

WR: Andre Johnson, Fitz, Moss

TE: Clark, Witten, Gates

Again for each position, which guy is most likely to break (back) into top-tier status or at least jump up a tier?

QB: Kolb, Palmer, VY, Matt Ryan

RB: Ryan Grant, Ryan Matthews, Ahmad Bradshaw

WR: MSW, Jabar Gaffney, Lee Evans

TE: Carlson, Cooley, Daniels, Z. Miller, Winslow

 
I just started a thread on this same question...but it would be awesome to hear you guys weigh in on it:

I had been pretty fortunate in the past with targeting guys like Michael Turner, Lamont Jordan, Chester Taylor who were in the last year of a contract and about to be free agents... For the past 2 years I have not been as successful, as guys like Darren Sproles/Chester Taylor/Leon Washington didn't pan out...

Who are you targeting as potential players who might be back-ups this year that could have a starting job next year, based on the fact they will be a free agent, or the starter in front of them might move on/retire, etc....

(Here is the thread if you would prefer to respond there... I have included a list of the UFA RBs for 2011)
:loco:
 
We all know that Sigmund keeps his throat moist and his voice fresh during these 2 hour podcasts by enjoying the real Coca Cola taste of Coke Zero... but what does Cecil like to drink to help keep his radio voice sounding so silky smooth?

As for football, can you guys talk a little bit about the redraft and dynasty potential of Shawn Nelson? He's currently buried deep in the TE rankings, but with good size and speed and limited competition for playing time, would it surprise you if he produced John Carlson or Dustin Keller-like numbers as early as this year? How much upside is there and what might we expect from the TE position in a Chan Gailey offense?

 
Hey Guys,

Love the show!

Easy Question:

In a super flex system (1-4 Rb's, 2-5 Wr, 1-4 TE) in which TE's get 1.5 PPR, I just finished a draft with only Tony Scheffler and Aaron Hernandez as my TE's.

I was offered Kellen Winslow for Ahmad Bradshaw. My other running backs are: MJD, Jamaal Charles, Jahvid Best, and Charles Scott.

I could start 4 Rb's with Bradshaw my RB4, but are my Te's strong enough to go in with? Remember, last year in this scoring system, Winslow outscored Bradshaw by 65 fantasy points!

What are your thoughts?

 
Aah yeah Audible time again :cry:

Been musing about an idea for an mini-article or something and interested in your take.

How important a strong D is for fantasy rushing production? What would the correlation be?

The premise being of course that strong fantasy RB production is more likely to come from teams with great Ds. I can think of several types of anecdotes to support this

1) Teams like Jets, Ravens, Steelers (historically) fitting the bill

2) How the Bengals got good RB numbers in the same year there D got a lot better

3) Players production dipping when the D dips , eg LT 2006/2007 vs 2008

Of course there will be exceptions too (e.g. Charles last year)

It's probably just another tiebreaker for players in a similar tier but worth considering??

 
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Hey guys,

If you had to pick 5 freakish athletes who are currently in the nfl who would you take?

Mine would be Calvin Johnson, Chris Johnson, Mario Williams, Vernon Davis, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie

 
I've been hearing a lot of talk about a potential lock out next year. I have two questions regarding this...

1) As a commissioner in a Dynasty League, are there some rules or anything I should consider putting in there for next year?

and...

2) As an owner, should I prepare my team any differently for next year?

Thanks for the great shows. Been listening forever .. I don't know what I'd do without you guys.

 
Sigmund,

We all know how you feel about taking QBs late in the draft. But what about when its a 6 Point per touchdown league? How much does that effect you philosophy?

Thanks,

Brian

 
Fantastic show. I honestly think you guys are on par with the best duos in radio.

One question for this show: I am in a weird keeper where you can only keep 1 player for one year and he has to be taken after the sixth round to be eligible. The only two guys on my roster that fit that description are Jermichael Finley and Ricky Williams.

We can start 2QBs and 3RBs to go with two WR and a TE, so the draft is real heavy at QB and RB. Who would you keep, Ricky as a high-end RB3, or Fiinley hoping he can break into the top 4 TEs.

 
Can we get a little 2 QB league talk in? I am in a 10 team 2 QB PPR league and am usually one to wait a little on QB's and try to mix two mid tier guys together. Do you like this strategy? If so, what kind of pairs would you target?

Also, debating whether to make my last keeper Vjax in round 14 or Josh Freeman in round 20. Care to opine?

 
Cecil, Bloom, love the show, great work.

I am interested in the "under the radar" last minute camp cuts and opening day training camp twitter or tweets.

Any info that may be breaking news that perhaps a rookie is being penciled in as a surprise starter with the first team over an entrenched vet.

I know it is mostly stuff that falls through the cracks, but this kind of info leads to speculation about camp battles, and gives us an updated scoresheet of the changing depth charts.

TIA

 
Hi Guys

Dynasty League question Start 2 RBs

I am looking at some RBs with an eye solely on next year and the future. I am not concerned with how they may do this year, and I am swinging for the fences so I am not looking at just acquiring depth. I am willing to carry them all season on my roster as an investment in the future.

I am looking at Tennessee (Ringer, L Blount), Jax (Jennings, Karim), and GB (Starks). I personally think Starks has the best chance to become a starter out of this group, but I am not sure he would be able to do much if he got the chance.. I was leaning towards Ringer until CJ signed, and still like him due to the # of touches CJ had last year and I expect will have this coming year.. I like Jennings best but I am concerned there could be a different coach next year who may want to bring in his own guys as back ups to MJD.

If you were going to stash one of these 5 on your roster for a year, who would it be? Would 1/2 per reception change your mind?

 
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Gentlemen, I am in a 12-team redraft league, receptions are worth .5 pts and it's 6 pts per TD for RB/WR/QB.

Roster Positions: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF

The League is pretty standard EXCEPT for WR, where it's 1pt per 20 yards receiving instead of 10.

My question is: How does this affect the value of those top-tier WR? Are they more valuable or less valuable as a result?

How would this affect your Snake-style Draft if you were drafting in spots 1-4, 5-8 and 9-12?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts! Keep up the awesome work!

 
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Hi all. I discovered the Audible podcast in May and haven't missed one since. I just joined this site and am looking forward to some great football discussions.

My question for the podcast:

I am in a long-time dynasty league (19th annual draft coming up soon). My league is 12-team, non PPR, and uses IDP. Each team is required to keep a minimum of 5 players (with at least one being a defensive player). You are allowed to keep more than 5 if you wish but the more you keep the more draft picks you lose. So if you keep 6 players you lose your "1st pick", if you keep 7 you lose your 1st and 2nd pick...etc. Looking at the rosters of the other teams it seems that most of them will keep the minmum. I also want to keep the minimum and my 5 will be Adrian Peterson, L. McCoy, D. Hester, and Steve Smith (NYG) and 1 defensive player. I also have Steve Smith from Carolina. And my decision comes down to keeping S. Smith from Carolina and losing my 1st pick or drop him and pick what looks like will be ether M. Hardesty or Dez Bryant. I am picking in the 5th slot and the top 3 picks are sure to be Best, Mathews, and Spiller.

So would you rather have S. Smith (CAR) or Hardesty? Or S. Smith (CAR) or Dez Bryant?

Keep up the good work and go Spartans!

 
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2 Simple Non PPR Dynasty League ranking questions...

Rank the following WR's 1,2,3...

Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn, Golden Tate

Rank the following RB's 1,2,3...

Jahvid Best, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

Please and thank you... :popcorn:

 
What is the best strategy to use while drafting RBBC type of players. Do you want to try to grab both of the top RB's on a team or is it better to take a risk and grab 2 or 3 all from different teams? Say I roll with A. Foster and M. Bush would that be a better combo to have then Bush and McFadden?

Examples

Bush/McFadden

Jackson/Spiller/Lynch

Foster/Slaton/Tate

Jacobs/Bradshaw

Jones/Barber/Choice

Maroney/Taylor/Faulk

I actually like taking WR's and a stud QB early in PPR and trying to land 5 or 6 of the guys I listed in the examples in rounds 5-10. Hoping that half of them turn out to be stud RB's. I think Matt Waldman did an article on this and I loved the idea.
+1There are several RBBC-1's who are ranked outside the Top 20 RB's. Given current ADP's, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to lock up TWO RBBC backfields (e.g. MIA and CLE, IND and OAK) if you dedicated picks 4-7 or 5-8. Is this a viable strategy or just wasting picks since the odds of any one buy emerging is fairly low?

Thanks. Great show.

 
That was exactly the kind of smackdown I needed. :goodposting:
It's all good, and a very valid question, it's just that Ive seen it so often and wondered, why doesnt anyone ask if Bryant can actually help Austin - there is more than one way to read how Bryant's presence will affect him - so I wanted to address it emphatically - glad you didn't take it personally!
 
Thanks for answering my question about the RBBC. I think that is the way to go if you are in it to win it. Just grabbing the best guy out of the 2 in your opinion.

Also thanks for the Rock, Flag and Eagle shout out. Love It's Always Sunny in Philly best show in the world. Well Breaking Bad is pretty good but IASIP is by far the funniest.

Thanks Guys

 

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