massraider
Footballguy
Geez, his upside is one of the best fantasy TEs ever? I ain't ready to go there yet.
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Tyler Eifert, TE (JAC) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
And the other options available at his draft spot are? In our rookie draft I project Bell, Ball, Bernard, Austin, Lacy - in some order as the first 4 picks. One of them will be available at 5. Add in potential picks Hopkins, Patterson - what is their upside? It is pretty rare - especially in this draft to identify who the best player will be. Personally my money is on Micheal but he is going to be at least a year if not two away.
The point is - Eifort is as safe of a pick as any and I do believe his upside THIS YEAR is top 10 TE. I can't say that about any of the players that will be available at the #5 spot in a rookie draft. I think one could argue Eifort as the #1 pick in a rookie draft. While many owners still don't seem to care about the TE position - happy to grab guys like Cook, Gates,etc late in drafts - having a game changing TE is probably the most valuable piece in fantasy football.
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massraider
Footballguy
That has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. Saying his upside is maybe the greatest red zone TE ever makes me laugh.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
silentcoach
Footballguy
Yes and No. At some point SOMEONE will be the best fantasy TE ever. If someone had said that about Gronk, you probably would have laughed too. In the end, all we can do is hear arguments as to why someone thinks so and not just "laugh" it off because the probability is against it
.Obviously, remarks that are just conclusions do not advance the argument, but if someone can come up with a worthy argument as to why Eifert is next great hope at TE....then I see no problem with thinking that someone thinks Eifert is a stud, etc.
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massraider
Footballguy
You know, when a mid round TE (Gronk) and an undrafted TE (Gates) can become the among the greatest fantasy TEs ever, then, yes, it is possible. It is possible Eifert becomes the greatest pass-catching TE ever.
But that kind of opens up an entirely new, unhelpful thing. Hey, anything is possible! Jordan Cameron doesn't take a backseat to Eifert from an athletic standpoint, is his ceiling Antonio Gates?
Gronk/Graham created a new ceiling, that didn't exist beforehand. A TE that has that for an upside better must have a lot going for him.
massraider
Footballguy
I like Eifert, by the way. I like him a lot.
But Sabertooth......come on. His upside is Gronk, but you may have to settle for Witten (probable Hall of Famer)?
But Sabertooth......come on. His upside is Gronk, but you may have to settle for Witten (probable Hall of Famer)?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I've heard nothing but positives for Eifert. Maybe Gronk is a bit of hyperbole but with rules changes, who knows? His upside is very high, let's just say that. Arguing all this other crap is kind of silly. Of course the chances of that happening are >0.
I'll revise and say Eifert has a good chance of being a top 5 fantasy TE.
I'll revise and say Eifert has a good chance of being a top 5 fantasy TE.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Top 5 next year for sure when Gresham is gone
.This year, I'd be happy for "startable" because a lot of the TEs are just plain disgusting this year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do think Eifert has the potential to become a top TE and even possibly a top 5 or elite level TE above the good but deep tier of TE players who are all pretty close to each other in expected performance. I do not disagree with those taking the stance that he might be the most valuable rookie in the long run.
The small problem I have with taking Eifert in the top 6 is that there are many other quality TE in the rookie draft who could be drafted later on such as Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Ertz, Reed.
I do think Eifert has the most upside of these players, so the best chance to become that elite top 5 type TE. But I like Kelce and McDonald a lot too, so getting the most out of 2 or 3 picks may mean passing Eifert for another position because of the nice TE fall back options.
The small problem I have with taking Eifert in the top 6 is that there are many other quality TE in the rookie draft who could be drafted later on such as Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Ertz, Reed.
I do think Eifert has the most upside of these players, so the best chance to become that elite top 5 type TE. But I like Kelce and McDonald a lot too, so getting the most out of 2 or 3 picks may mean passing Eifert for another position because of the nice TE fall back options.
EBF
Footballguy
That logic only applies if the players are similar in quality though.
To use an extreme example, in one league last year I took Kendall Wright at #5 ahead of RGIII. :X
My reasoning was much the same. RGIII was the better prospect, but WR was the much more valuable position in that league.
This is not quite a parallel case because Hopkins and Patterson were drafted within 10 spots of Eifert whereas Wright was picked 15+ spots lower than RGIII. I don't think there's anyone who would have said that Wright was a better NFL prospect than Griffin, whereas there are probably quite a few who would take Patterson and/or Hopkins over Eifert. The point I'm trying to illustrate is that drafting based on need and positional value can have disastrous consequences if you pass up the best player at a non-premium position in order to take an inferior option at a glamor position.
I wouldn't say that Eifert is a tier above Hopkins and Patterson from a talent standpoint, but he doesn't have any question marks, whereas those guys each have some glaring things that you can point to as cause for doubt. From a combine numbers standpoint, Hopkins is well below average for a prospective WR1. His numbers point towards more of a NFL WR2 trajectory. Patterson has almost everything you want in a #1 WR from that standpoint, but he's relatively untested as a pass catcher. Only one season in NCAA. Only one 100+ yard receiving game. Lauded as much for his return skills and open field ability as his route running and receiving skills. I like him more than Hopkins for FF purposes because, if everything clicks, he can be a top 10 dynasty WR. I would say he clearly has more risk than Eifert though.
After getting burned by the RGIII/Wright move and similar mistakes in the past, I'm leaning more towards a "draft the best player available regardless of position" strategy than playing the RB/WR lotto with inferior talents. Why did Hernandez, Gronk, and Graham fall so low in rookie drafts? Because everyone was rolling the dice on junk at premium positions under the belief that TEs have no upside. This Eifert/Hopkins/Patterson dilemma isn't so clear cut, as all of these guys were picked in approximately the same range. I'm just pointing out that what ultimately matters most is how good the player is, not what position he plays. A Pro Bowler at TE will be worth more to most FF teams than a journeyman or a bust at WR.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm not worried about Gresham. He's good but Eifert was brought in to change this offense. He won't be used in a traditional TE role. He'll be split out, in the slot, off the line, on the line...you name it. Gresham is a road grater....he put Geno Atkins on his back on Hard Knocks...Top 5 next year for sure when Gresham is gone
This year, I'd be happy for "startable" because a lot of the TEs are just plain disgusting this year.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Elite QB? Nope
1st string TE? Nope
Odds of a rookie TE making a fantasy impact: Rare
If Eifert landed with the Giants, I would be interested. He didn't and Gresham will still pull plenty of targets. Prepare to hold Eifert until 2015 to make an impact.
1st string TE? Nope
Odds of a rookie TE making a fantasy impact: Rare
If Eifert landed with the Giants, I would be interested. He didn't and Gresham will still pull plenty of targets. Prepare to hold Eifert until 2015 to make an impact.
SWC
Bromigo
hes ok but i just see owen daniels and not much more which means pretty good and flashes of real good but at the end of the day just maybe an upper otwenty five percent guy and hey one thing own daniels has going for him is that he has a wisconsin tie which is awesomne take that to teh bank brohans
John Paul
Footballguy
I'm all in for dynasty purposes. He is not as physically imposing as a Gronk or Graham, but his QB is younger. He is in a great situation with several young offensive weapons around him. I don't expect a lot in 2013 because rookie TEs don't typically make a huge impact. However, from 2014 on I think we will see the next young TE that will fill the void of Gonzo leaving the game, Gates' declining ability and so on.
Think Dennis Pitta in a better offense though; they are similar in how natural they are in catching the ball and running routes. I really like the kid and was very happy to get him at 1.07 in a rookie draft this year. I had Gates and Gresham last year and the position needed an overhaul. Replaced them with Eifert, Julius Thomas and Vance McDonald hoping one or two emerges for long-term production.
Think Dennis Pitta in a better offense though; they are similar in how natural they are in catching the ball and running routes. I really like the kid and was very happy to get him at 1.07 in a rookie draft this year. I had Gates and Gresham last year and the position needed an overhaul. Replaced them with Eifert, Julius Thomas and Vance McDonald hoping one or two emerges for long-term production.
As evidenced by the head-to-head matchup in last year's playoff game?
Schaub - 29/38/262 83.4 QB rating (vs. #7 pass def)
Dalton - 14/30/127 44.7 QB rating (vs. #16 pass def)
Or maybe proven by their respective career QB rating? MS = 91.9 vs. AD 83.9
Or maybe number of 4K passing season?
It will be interesting how you show your work on this one.
ETA: pass def rankings
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SWC
Bromigo
hey that is nice man i think arodgers the awesome is better than both of them but you know what i still think earfert is just like daniels so bam score one more for arodgers take that to the bank brohans
EBF
Footballguy
Schaub looks like he might be slipping a bit, but even so his career YPA is a full yard higher than Dalton's.
Dalton threw a lot of TD passes last year and I think that kind of covered up the fact that he had a pretty average year otherwise. Solid accuracy. Fairly good at avoiding turnovers. Not much of a playmaker though. Out of all the NFL QBs with 400+ pass attempts last season, these are the only guys who had a worse YPA:
Sam Bradford
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Brandon Weeden
Mark Sanchez
Christian Ponder
Not exactly good company. Dalton will need to improve a lot in future seasons to become a great NFL QB.
Dalton threw a lot of TD passes last year and I think that kind of covered up the fact that he had a pretty average year otherwise. Solid accuracy. Fairly good at avoiding turnovers. Not much of a playmaker though. Out of all the NFL QBs with 400+ pass attempts last season, these are the only guys who had a worse YPA:
Sam Bradford
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Brandon Weeden
Mark Sanchez
Christian Ponder
Not exactly good company. Dalton will need to improve a lot in future seasons to become a great NFL QB.
johnadams
Footballguy
From what I've seen, Eifert is legit and has a chance to be a very special player. Will he this year? I highly doubt it. As has been mentioned, rookie TEs making a splash are very rare (can't think of a single one). Gresham is a nice player, but the trend in the NFL is moving towards two viable pass catching TEs, so the presence of Gresham isn't going to dampen my enthusiasm. I'm looking for a healthy season to include 50-60 catches and 600 to 800 yards. Year two is when I expect the breakout. In dynasty, he's my second ranked rookie, but that's because he has a better chance of significant separation from the others at his position (joining Graham and Gronk as the top three) than the rookie RBs, which I'm not real thrilled with this year. In redraft, I'll pass entirely this year, but dynasty, I'm a huge fan.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
It's not that TEs are valuable, it's that Gronk and Graham are extremely valuable. Gronkowski and Graham are both several standard deviations ahead of what any tight end has ever done in the history of the league- even Tony Gonzalez. You can't draft Eifert based in any part on what Gronk or Graham might have done.
I think it's wildly optimstic at this point to expect Eifert to even be the next Jason Witten, let alone the next Gronkowski. Jason Witten has been a stud TE his entire career, but he's never been that kind of difference maker. If you ignore Witten's rookie year, he's averaged just 38 VBD a season for his career in non-PPR. That kind of consistent production and longevity is valuable, but it's still just 38 VBD a season. For comparison, that's about what you'd expect from WR18 in most seasons. So if things break right for Eifert, he might be as valuable as a solid WR2 every year for the next decade.
I'm pleased as punch that I absolutely stole Eifert in the 6th round of a very TE-heavy startup, but when I did so, I did it counting more on something between Kellen Winslow Jr. and Jason Witten, not counting on him ever making the leap to the Gronkowski/Graham level (or even the Gonzalez/Gates level). I've got Eifert as a top-5 dynasty TE, but there's a huuuuuuuuuuuge drop from Gronk/Graham down to the mere mortals.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
In all honesty, in PPR after Hopkins and Patterson, Eifert would be my next pick. He looks to be one of the best TE prospects in yrs, cinny has done a 180 and looks like a good team. Yeah Dalton is ok but there are far worse QBs out there and AJG will be sucking up all the coverage.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I hesitate to say that Eifert looks like the best TE prospect in years. I wonder how much of that is just hindsight bias now that we know how the other TE prospects turned out. Jermaine Gresham, for instance, was drafted in the exact same spot three years ago, had much better college numbers, and his measurables simply blew Eifert's out of the water. Brandon Pettigrew was taken a pick earlier at 20th overall. I was a huge fan of Dustin Keller's coming into the league- I thought he was such a natural receiver, and that he was a sure-fire top-6 player at the position. I have a hard time telling if Eifert is genuinely a better prospect than the last dozen first-round TEs, or if it just seems that way because I know now how those last dozen prospects all turned out.
SWC
Bromigo
powers you and me are on the same planet my brohan that is a good nickname i started a thread once about great nicknames you should have been in there you couldhave been great take that to the bank brohnana
cheese
Footballguy
I think this is a case where you also have to distinguish between fantasy and real football. Some of those other guys are complete players and were good prospects as a result. Eifert is a WR (in terms of skill set and usage) that is eligible at TE. He could be the best TE prospect in yrs if we're just talking fantasy.Adam Harstad said:
EBF
Footballguy
There's some truth in this. I think more was expected of guys like Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller when they were drafted. Both of those guys were combine freaks and high picks. If you want to look at negatives, they're both on the short side for a TE and neither of them has great jump ball/contested catch skills. Eifert with his long arms and huge catch radius really excels in that department.Adam Harstad said:
As for Eifert vs. Gresham, Eifert actually has better or equal combine numbers in every drill. Faster 40. Faster three cone time. Faster shuttle. Longer broad jump. More reps on the bench press. Same vertical leap. Gresham is a bit heavier and that's his only major advantage. I thought Gresham out of Oklahoma was more of a catch-and-rumble type of player. A bit like Gronk in terms of playing style. Eifert is a lot more precise in his movements and routes. He runs routes like a WR. I think he's more comparable to Graham, albeit not quite as monstrous.
Off the top of my head, I think Winslow and Davis are probably the only two from the last decade who I would've rated higher at draft time. Winslow was the best and would've had the best career if not for the injuries. Davis, in hindsight, is more athlete than receiver. I never quite had the same optimism for the likes of Olsen and Miller that I do for Eifert. Pettigrew is a 4.8 guy. No explosiveness.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is an excellent point. The problem is the bar is so high for a TE prospect to really set themselves apart from the pack. There is really only a handful of players who have achieved that. As EBF points out Winslow and Davis were even more highly thought of as prospects, they have had good numbers at times but did not really reach the expectations that many had for them as prospects.Adam Harstad said:
The most likely outcome is that Eifert is a good TE but does not really distance himself from the pack. If that is the case then you may as well not invest as much and see if Kelce or McDonald can break out of that pack instead.
I do like his chances to become an elite TE more than the other prospects. But this is still playing the lottery. Vernon Davis has had the ability to become that player, but they still prefer to use him as a blocker more often than not anyways.
EBF
Footballguy
That might be so, but the flipside is that the other candidates like Hopkins, Patterson, Lacy, and Ball aren't guaranteed super careers either. Those guys could very easily fall on the ugly side of the spectrum that ranges from Buster Davis ---> Michael Jenkins ---> Roy Williams ---> Larry Fitzgerald. Whose career would you rather have for your FF team? Greg Olsen or Roy Williams? Todd Heap or Koren Robinson? Remember that the "he isn't guaranteed to be great" reasoning also extends to the WR prospects.
In general, I'd take a random first round WR over a random first round TE in FF any time. These aren't random players though. Eifert really has no flaws as a prospect. Every draft class has 1-2 guys like this. A player who checks off every box in terms of: college performance, combine numbers, draft position, and eyeball test. That's exactly what you're looking for in a prospect and I think Eifert fits the bill. I thought he was the most impressive TE in this class in highlights and game clips. I thought he looked the best in the receiving drills at the combine. If you look at his NFL.com combine profile, you'll see that he was a "top performer" in every single drill. That means he ranked in the top 5 players at his position in the 40, bench press, vertical leap, broad jump, three cone, short shuttle, and long shuttle. The guy literally has no weaknesses as an athlete or receiver. The same can't be said of any RB or WR in this draft class. Name a player and I can point to something missing.
When I add it all up, I think Eifert is quite a bit better than the average first round TE prospect. He doesn't have any one single jaw-dropping quality, but the overall package is totally clean. First round TEs have a pretty high success rate in general. Even with that being the case, I'm willing to look at Eifert as a safer bet than the typical first round TE for reasons that I've already stated. On the flipside, I'd say that Hopkins and Patterson are merely average or below average compared to a typical first round WR prospect. That's just my opinion and many won't agree, but I don't see either of those guys as an obvious star or lock for perennial NFL WR1 status. So for me it's kind of like...
Eifert: 10% chance of busting, 20% chance of serviceable, 35% chance of good, 35% chance of excellent
Hopkins: 25% chance of busting, 40% chance of serviceable, 20% chance of good, 15% chance of excellent
Patterson: 40% chance of busting, 10% chance of serviceable, 25% chance of good, 25% chance of excellent
These numbers are arbitrary, but they reflect my thought process on these players and my rough impression of their outlook. If you treat these guys as "Random TE" and "Random WR" then you should favor the WR every time. That's not how I look at them though. I think that by evaluating a player's qualities and making a careful assessment, you can reach better odds than just random luck alone. I might be totally off the mark on these players, but based on what I think I know of them, Eifert is the best quality prospect of the group. Hopkins is highly likely to be decent, but highly unlikely to be a star. Patterson is a volatile boom-or-bust pick.
If Eifert is a near lock to fall somewhere in the range between Todd Heap and Jason Witten, he might be a better gamble than either of those two. That's my reasoning for ranking him ahead of them. It's close and there's potential for it to break the other way, but I feel he's the best player in the group by a wide enough margin to overcome to lower positional value.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with what you are saying EBF and I think Eifert is one of the best TE prospects coming into the league in some time (there have been very good ones almost every year for the past decade or so and the changes in the league have made the TE pie a bigger part of their passing offenses in recent years as well) but still I do not think he was as valued as a TE prospect Kellen Winslow or Vernon Davis. The hype on these players was enormous, and deservedly so. Winslow may have lived up to that if he hadn't had so many injuries. Davis if he was used differently.
Right before the draft, yourself, Bloom and others were ready to put Eifert in a tier ahead of all the quality TE prospects besides the 2 G's and I think most of you likely still feel the same way about that. I can see why you would as well. I still think that is being overly optimistic and if he does not perform like gangbusters right away a lot of the fans of Eifert will be looking at him as JADTE the same way they do Rudolph and every other flavor of the year TE.
At least I know you will stick to your guns on this guy regardless of how he fairs.
I do like his chances to eventually separate himself from the pack. There isn't any 2013 rookie prospect that I consider a more sure thing than Eifert.
It is no sure thing that even the best TE prospects separate themselves enough from the pack though. Gronk and Graham have Brady and Brees to work with. I like Dalton a lot but I don't know if he will ever be able to push his players to the same level that those 2 QB have. Brees is part of what helped Gates be so good as well. There is something special about Brees and the TE combination.
Right before the draft, yourself, Bloom and others were ready to put Eifert in a tier ahead of all the quality TE prospects besides the 2 G's and I think most of you likely still feel the same way about that. I can see why you would as well. I still think that is being overly optimistic and if he does not perform like gangbusters right away a lot of the fans of Eifert will be looking at him as JADTE the same way they do Rudolph and every other flavor of the year TE.
At least I know you will stick to your guns on this guy regardless of how he fairs.
I do like his chances to eventually separate himself from the pack. There isn't any 2013 rookie prospect that I consider a more sure thing than Eifert.
It is no sure thing that even the best TE prospects separate themselves enough from the pack though. Gronk and Graham have Brady and Brees to work with. I like Dalton a lot but I don't know if he will ever be able to push his players to the same level that those 2 QB have. Brees is part of what helped Gates be so good as well. There is something special about Brees and the TE combination.
Jared Cook hasn't amounted to too much and it took Davis a while. There is a lot of similar athleticism commentary between Cook and Eifert.Adam Harstad said:
IMO The best TE prospect and rookie was Jeremy Shockey. Keep in mind the Gmen went to a lot of effort to change his style of play.
A TE wanting to take on defenders in the manner rookie Shockey did was one of the most arrogant yet entertaining styles of play I've ever seen a receiver or TE play. There was something very classic, sort of mano y mano toughness about it that seemed so original and so exciting. Jim Brown looked for defenders to steam roll, it wasn't original, but it sure seemed it. His first catch most defenders were like oh he's not going to try that on me and by his second (you could about tell)they were like fired up thinking oh bring it rook. Fans would be excited anticipating his next catch and the eventual collision.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Me too. Kelce went undrafted in our 10 team, 24 man roster league. Eifert went at 3.06. So TEs are not highly valued but still. I finally had enough of it and scooped up Kelce. So now my TEs are Gronk, Eifert, and Kelce. I think I'm going to forget about that position for the next few drafts.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Limp through. I am not going to blow up my team for a middling player. I plan to trot Eifert out week 1. Then I will just see what he and Kelce do and adjust then. The last player on my roster is Vick Ballard so I could always release him for a Bennett or similar middling talent.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I'm in a similar boat. I have Eifert and Heath Miller and a whole slew of other TE's that I can sign to a contract (Salary cap league). I could sign Winslow or add a second rookie TE like Ertz, but am thinking of just limping along with Eiffert for the first few weeks until Miller is back. The rest of my team is pretty stacked, so I don't want to waste a roster spot for a huge question mark like an aging soldiah or another rook TE.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, the irony of the discussion about who's the best TE prospect is that neither of the two guys at the top of most dynasty TE lists right now (Graham and Gronk) was considered a slam dunk prospect. So while it's interesting to try to rank Eifert among guys like Davis, Winslow, and Gresham, that's not ultimately the point. What we're trying to determine is how good he'll be in the NFL, not how highly rated he is entering the league. I don't know that he's ever going to hit the super elite level, but with his skill set and the way TEs are being utilized these days, I think he's a near lock to be at least "good" with a real chance to be even more than that (I think a 1000 yard season is doable for him).
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I agree, part of the reason why they don't seem inclined to rush Hawkins back (they may start him on recallable IR this year) is because 3-WR sets are going to be much less common than last year I bet. Looking at last night's Hard Knocks has me thinking that Gresham's numbers might end up about the same (perhaps tail off later if Eifert improves) but Gresham has the look of the trusted veteran - he was the one getting the first looks in the preseason game. It's off the main topic, but Gresham could very much be a fantasy value play in redraft this year. I was happy to see that Eifert did a lot in the way of blocking - that's the area of his game that he needs to improve and that he did so well in the preseason game in blocking tells me that he's a coachable kid that will get it. May not seem great for fantasy prospects but the ability to block will keep him on the field more and that will give him more opportunities.cheese said:
Funny feeling that his redraft numbers end up looking average. Dynasty is where it's at for him.
-QG
shader
Footballguy
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
True. My focus of course on the value of a top TE being the criteria for Eifert to be considered the top rookie pick of 2013. As we know most will not put up numbers that REALLY separates them from the rest of the pack. That is a really high bar to set when you consider there have only been like 10 guys who have been able to score like this for more than 1 season.
At the same time I do think Eifert could end up performing that well. There is little downside. He should at least be a top 12 type TE at worst when healthy. Or in that trough of TE 3-18 that have seen their numbers coming up incrementally as passing offenses have featured them more. Very good prospect.
I do not like the odds of Kelce or McDonald to become a elite TE more than I like Eifert. But they have a chance to become these types of players also, Vernon Davis is getting older and SF looks committed to CK. They like to run a lot of multiple TE sets and run the ball. I can see these 2 players being in a good situation coupled with outstanding talent and from what I have been reading good progress during training camps to be a factor in 2013 and gain valuable experience. There are a few other good prospects as well such as Reed in Washington. I have not heard as much about him in preseason as I have Kelce and McDonald.
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
He's going to suck till the offense changes. They have two new weapons that they are completely wasting while they keep playing Gresham and BJGE.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Gresham is an awesome tackle-breaking first down maker. Just b/c Eifert will have to share things from a fantasy-perspective doesn't make it the wrong thing from an NFL perspective.
-QG
