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US Men's National Team (2 Viewers)

There are power ratings that give each team a single number to measure their strength.

If the best team in the world is a 10.0, the US is like 7.5-8.0.
 
So the next tournament is the U20 World Cup which will be the end of May. There should be two camps between now and then – one in January and one in the FiFA window in March.

They have announced that rosters will be only 21 players this year (I actually think it has been 18 in the past) with 3 GKs per side. Given that, positional flexibility will be very important and some of everyone’s favorite players may well not make the side. I'm assuming for the purposes of this that everyone will be available which is pretty likely.

GKs (3)

Locks – Gabriel Slonina (04, Chelsea), Brady (04, Chicago)

Likely – Alex Borto (03, Fulham)

Outside looking in – Antonio Carrera (04, FC Dallas)

Long shots – none really

Assuming Gaga gets released, this group is the most obvious. I think Carrera would be the 3rd if Slonina doesn’t play. There actually may be a better chance Brady doesn't get released since the Fire will be in season and he looks to be their starter.


Defenders (6)

Locks – Brandan Craig (04, Philadelphia), Mauricio Cuevas (03, Brugge)

Likely – Che (03, Hoffenhem), Marcus Ferkranus (03, Galaxy), Jalen Neal (03, Galaxy), Jonathan Gomez (03, Real Sociedad)

Outside looking in – Caleb Wiley (04, Atlanta)

Long shots - Kobi Henry (04, Reims), Noah Alen (04, Miami), Michael Halliday (03, Orlando), Josh Wynder (05, Louisville)

Think this group is mostly set. I think a lot of the shine has worn off Che but his ability to play both right back and center back probably means he still has a spot. I think Gomez-Wiley could really go either way but with Paredes on the roster and spots at a premium, I assume we don’t take both.


Midfield (6)

Locks – none really

Likely – Alejandro Alvarado (03, Vizela), Daniel Edelman (03, NYRB), Rokas Pukstas (04, Hajduk Split), Jack McGlynn (03, Philadelphia), Caden Clark (03, Leipzig), Niko Tsakiris (05, San Jose)

Outside looking in – Diego Luna (03, Salt Lake), Obed Vargas (05, Seattle)

Long shots – Daniel Leyva (03, Seattle)

This is by far our deepest position which leaves everything up for grabs. Luna has had a rough start in MLS whereas Tsakiris is flying – probably the most growth by anyone in the last few months of the season. Vargas needs to show he’s injury free to bump someone. I think Caden Clark is most vulnerable from the likelys as he has all the tools but has never shown it for the U20s. Edelman is probably the 6 but Pukstas has played there for the US as well as for club (he has lined up at RB, at 8 and at 6).

Forwards (6)

Locks – Ricardo Pepi (03, Groningen), Paxten Aaronson (03, Frankfort), Kevin Paredes (03, Wolfsburg)

Likely – Quinn Sullivan (04, Philadelphia), Brian Gutierrez (03, Cincinnati), Cade Cowell (03, San Jose)

Outside looking in – Dante Sealy (03, PSV), Tyler Wolff (03, Beveren), Jackson Hopkins (04, DC)

Long shots – Luca Koleosho (04, Espanol), Rodrigo Neri (04, Atletico Madrid), Malick Sonogo (03, Union Berlin)

I think Hopkins gets the call if Pepi isn’t released but hard to say. I also don’t know what will happen if Koleosho accepts an U20 call for the World Cup. He hasn’t played with the group in over a year but based in what I’ve seen, he’d move into the lock category. Neri has been playing with the U19s where all he does is score. Sonogo has had big hype but it seems to have cooled.

Otherwise, I think the six here are likely the group as the Outside trio are pretty far outside. But I could see Clark pushed to this group (bumping Cowell) and another mid like Luna taken (especially since Luna can play wing too).
 
The General said:
So if Argentina and France are 9’s and 10’s on a 1-10 scale of team capabilities, where is the US team?

Maybe a 5 or 6?
Click to expand...

Dinsy Ejotuz said:
There are power ratings that give each team a single number to measure their strength.

If the best team in the world is a 10.0, the US is like 7.5-8.0.
Click to expand...

The Z Machine said:
If the USMNT is 8, then they must include The Federated States of Micronesia.
Click to expand...

There are 211 teams in FIFA.

If the top team is a 10, and the teams in the 200's are a 1, the US, currently and fairly ranked at 13, are far far closer to a 10 than a 1.
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
If the best team in the world is a 10.0, the US is like 7.5-8.
Click to expand...
World Football Elo is already updated to include the World Cup, and Argentina is #1 at 2143 points. The US is #23 at 1819 points (or 8.5 to Argentina's 10). That's pretty typical.

And if you want to say Argentina is a 9.0 or 9.5 (instead of 10, which I think is right) we'd be in the 7.5-8.0 range.
 
FWIW, I think almost every good ranking system is likely to have these 11 teams in, or very near, the top 11. It's a fairly clear tier IMO.

1 Argentina 2143
2 Brazil 2134
3 France 2082
4 Netherlands 2073
5 Portugal 1999
6 Spain 1996
7 Italy 1974
8 England 1967
9 Germany 1956
10 Croatia 1951
11 Belgium 1948
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
FWIW, I think almost every good ranking system is likely to have these 11 teams in, or very near, the top 11. It's a fairly clear tier IMO.

1 Argentina 2143
2 Brazil 2134
3 France 2082
4 Netherlands 2073
5 Portugal 1999
6 Spain 1996
7 Italy 1974
8 England 1967
9 Germany 1956
10 Croatia 1951
11 Belgium 1948
Click to expand...

The bottom two teams on this list will be very interesting to watch this coming cycle as they are both going to have massive amount of turn over.
 
NewlyRetired said:
The bottom two teams on this list will be very interesting to watch this coming cycle as they are both going to have massive amount of turn over.
Click to expand...
HA! I almost added a sentence about Belgium and Croatia not really belonging going forward.

And also that you could probably take the next-best teams in South America (Uruguay, Colombia(?), Ecuador(?) and slip them into the bottom of this list.

But it's probably a tier of 9 most of the time.
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
NewlyRetired said:
The bottom two teams on this list will be very interesting to watch this coming cycle as they are both going to have massive amount of turn over.
Click to expand...
HA! I almost added a sentence about Belgium and Croatia not really belonging going forward.

And also that you could probably take the next-best teams in South America (Uruguay, Colombia(?), Ecuador(?) and slip them into the bottom of this list.

But it's probably a tier of 9 most of the time.
Click to expand...

Rankings by nature are lagging indicators not leading indicators. They have no way to account for old age (or in the US's case, young age).
 
ChiefD said:
The General said:
So if Argentina and France are 9’s and 10’s on a 1-10 scale of team capabilities, where is the US team?

Maybe a 5 or 6?
Click to expand...
That sounds about right.
Click to expand...
I think it depends on if you are rating just the World Cup teams or all National teams across the world. 5 or 6 to me indicates we are mid pack, of the 32 teams in Qatar probably about right. If talking all 200+ teams world wide, we are well above mid-pack.
 
Talking with my 13yo daughter....

Her: well the World Cup is over, no more watching in school. Well not for another 4 years.
Me: The next one is back in summer, and in the US, so you won't get to watch in school.
Her: Darn. But at least we won't have to watch Pulisic take horrible corners. I can take better corners then he did.
Me: :lmao:
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I almost added a sentence about Belgium and Croatia not really belonging going forward.
Click to expand...
I think you guys are underrating the quality of the Croatian side. Sure, losing Modric will be massive, but they do have some mid-career talent (Livaković, Kovačić, Brozović) and some up and coming talent (Gvardiol in particular, even though he got roasted by the GOAT...). I think they'll fall out of the top 10, but will be stiff competition for anyone. I see them as being in the 14-17 range for the next cycle.
 
NewlyRetired said:
Every day that goes by with out any news makes me feel more like GGG is coming back. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...

Anyone else constantly hearing the final jeopardy theme in their heads? I wonder if they have stated internally no decision will be made until the new year?

It seems almost a guarentee now that either GGG or a caretaker is going to run the January camp.
 
The General said:
So if Argentina and France are 9’s and 10’s on a 1-10 scale of team capabilities, where is the US team?

Maybe a 5 or 6?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure there's an easy answer to this. If we are talking about current talent, that's one thing, but talent production is something else. For a litany of reasons, the US talent pool didn't really start to take off with legitimate top tier talent until the 1998s (birth year). That year produced Pulisic and McKennie.

Breaking the team into tranches of 4 years (21-24, 25-28, 29-32) replicates 4 year cycles. Those three generations are the core of every national team and good teams like France and Argentina age guys out and replace them with the next generation. This cycle the US is really missing 2 of those 3 tranches. If we say our starting XI includes Sargent at striker (the only legitimate question of who the starter is), our talent pool looks like

Young <25 -- Pulisic, Weah, Adams, Dest, Sargent, McKennie, Musah
Prime 25-28 --Robinson, Turner
Old <28 -- Ream, Zimmerman

Turner was quite good at the World Cup but leading up to it, even very late, he wasn't a shoe in starter. And Ream was a roll of dice. So really only Robinson and Zimmerman were locked in starters outside the "young" tranche. At the next World Cup, assuming we use these exact starters we would be 1 Young (Musah), 6 Prime, 4 Old.

Argentina 2022 - 4 Young, 1 Prime (Rodrigo De Paul), and 6 Old
France 2022 - 4 Young, 3 Prime, 4 Old

When the US fills out the generations, I'm not sure we're that far away. I called out De Paul above because De Paul, at 28 today, is a class player -- the kind of rough and tumble box to box mid we hope Yunus Musah develops into. But Argentina was rolling out Mascherano, Enzo Perez, and Benega at the last world cup -- all guys in the OLD tranche. De Paul didn't even make the roster (he actually wasn't even capped until AFTER the 2018 World Cup at 24 years old).

Our young group can probably hold their own against a standard Argentine tranche. We just need two more back to back tranches like it and we'll be there. And signs are pointing to that being what's coming. So in 2034 when we are rolling out a 32-year old Musah and Reyna with a 36 year old Pulisic, we'll look a lot like those sides (Argentina started a 35 year old and France started a 36 year old so not out of question).

And when we get there, we'll be a perennial challenger. But being a perennial contender may still mean a long wait for a title. Argentina who has been producing talent like this just won their first title in 36 years. Brazil is at least on a 24-year hiatus. England 60.
 
NewlyRetired said:
NewlyRetired said:
Every day that goes by with out any news makes me feel more like GGG is coming back. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...

Anyone else constantly hearing the final jeopardy theme in their heads? I wonder if they have stated internally no decision will be made until the new year?

It seems almost a guarentee now that either GGG or a caretaker is going to run the January camp.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that Berhalter's contract either has expired or expires as of 12/31. It would make no sense to give him a short term contract just to handle the January camp. I'm sure there are some things they want to get done but in reality that is just not an important event that should handcuff them on more important long-term decisions. I can't imagine Berhalter handling that if he's not going to be the guy for the next 4 years.

Given our historical experience with US Soccer decisionmakers, its very hard to assume they have a competent plan in place that they are carrying out behind the scenes now. It unfortunately seems much more likely they are flailing about without a succession process in place, as ridiculous as that sounds. The only sane options for me to explain the complete radio silence on the coaching succession issue is that they've decided to bring Berhalter back but are still negotiating the contract, or they have decided to move on and maybe have to wait until summer or otherwise hold off on interviews and/or an official announcement.

I'm shocked there hasn't been a leak (as far as I'm aware). Normally I would expect some minor drips of information from the usual sources but I've heard nothing of substance.
 
CletiusMaximus said:
NewlyRetired said:
NewlyRetired said:
Every day that goes by with out any news makes me feel more like GGG is coming back. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...

Anyone else constantly hearing the final jeopardy theme in their heads? I wonder if they have stated internally no decision will be made until the new year?

It seems almost a guarentee now that either GGG or a caretaker is going to run the January camp.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that Berhalter's contract either has expired or expires as of 12/31. It would make no sense to give him a short term contract just to handle the January camp. I'm sure there are some things they want to get done but in reality that is just not an important event that should handcuff them on more important long-term decisions. I can't imagine Berhalter handling that if he's not going to be the guy for the next 4 years..
Click to expand...

I was not saying GGG would be the caretaker. I was saying the Jan camp will be a caretaker or GGG(as the re-signed coach). I am assuming there will not be a new coach that can be hired in time so the only choice will be caretaker or a re-signed GGG:
 
Last edited:
NewlyRetired said:
Here is a good interview with Tab Ramos about the USMNT. He is asking similar questions of US Soccer as we are in terms of the coaching decision. Give it a read

bolavip.com

Tab Ramos on USMNT: 'There is still that distance when you watch the 8 or 10 best teams in the world'

The former USMNT midfielder spoke to Bolavip on the USMNT’s World Cup, his experience working on television, and his views on Lionel Messi and Argentina lifting their third trophy.
bolavip.com bolavip.com
Click to expand...

for the TL/DR crew

===================

TR: Well look, I could have a lot of opinions about this, but the bottom line is have you heard Cindy Parlow Cone say anything about this? She’s the president of the federation, am not sure I have heard her speak about the men’s national team. I don’t think she has said anything. I don’t think I even heard her name while I was at the World Cup in Qatar.

Where is Earnie Stewart, shouldn’t he be saying something? Shouldn’t he be answering some of these questions? What direction are we going? I don’t hear anything coming (from the federation). That was kind of the same thing that happened when Berhalter got hired. No one hears anything and then something happens. I want to hear the president of the federation say something and you don’t hear it, unless it’s about a lawsuit, you don’t really hear anything.
 
Tab Ramos: I think the number one takeaway is I feel the three players we have in the middle (Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah, and Weston McKennie) are able to compete with any other three midfielders in the world really.
Click to expand...
I've been thinking about this Q myself. There aren't many midfields in the world I'd take over these guys, especially once you get them all to 25/26 years old.
 
I wonder if they're thinking of bringing Berhalter back on a shorter-term contract? Even his haters recognize he was great at the non-game-day stuff. That way you keep him doing what he was really really good at, and you keep your options open for a big name that might be willing to come on in 18-24 months, but not willing today.
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
you keep your options open for a big name that might be willing to come on in 18-24 months, but not willing today.
Click to expand...
What big name will be available when GGG contract is up that isn't available now? Or are you saying GGG stays on as a caretaker until they find a new coach, be it in 12 mo, 18 mo, 24 mo, etc?
 
The Z Machine said:
What big name will be available when GGG contract is up that isn't available now? Or are you saying GGG stays on as a caretaker until they find a new coach, be it in 12 mo, 18 mo, 24 mo, etc?
Click to expand...
I hadn't read Tabare's idea on this when I posted that, but the idea is that there may be someone like Pep or whoever who'd be interested in the challenge, but isn't willing to leave his gig today. Especially given how few competitive games we'll play in the next couple years.

And Berhalter was great at recruitment and etc. So let him keep doing that in the meantime.
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
The Z Machine said:
What big name will be available when GGG contract is up that isn't available now? Or are you saying GGG stays on as a caretaker until they find a new coach, be it in 12 mo, 18 mo, 24 mo, etc?
Click to expand...
I hadn't read Tabare's idea on this when I posted that, but the idea is that there may be someone like Pep or whoever who'd be interested in the challenge, but isn't willing to leave his gig today. Especially given how few competitive games we'll play in the next couple years.

And Berhalter was great at recruitment and etc. So let him keep doing that in the meantime.
Click to expand...
But what do you tell the public? He's a caretaker while they search for a bigger name? Or that he's it for foreseeable future? Can GGG be an effective recruiter if he's publicly only a caretaker?
 
He is 15

========

[Fabrizio Romano] NYCFC talent Christian McFarlane has signed new long term contract, it’s now done after he rejected German clubs approaches to stay at City Group #NYCFC Bayern and Borussia Dortmund, among clubs monitoring McFarlane for the future.​

 
Still feel the pain for Chris Armas, who tore his ACL in the last friendly before the 1998 WC, and never got another shot.

Miles at least has the advantage of being a crazy good athlete in his prime -- and Achilles aren't a death sentence anymore if you have enough years left in your career to get all the way back. I expect he'll make the squad in 2026, especially with 2+ years to recover before then.
 
NewlyRetired said:
Here is a good interview with Tab Ramos about the USMNT. He is asking similar questions of US Soccer as we are in terms of the coaching decision. Give it a read

bolavip.com

Tab Ramos on USMNT: 'There is still that distance when you watch the 8 or 10 best teams in the world'

The former USMNT midfielder spoke to Bolavip on the USMNT’s World Cup, his experience working on television, and his views on Lionel Messi and Argentina lifting their third trophy.
bolavip.com bolavip.com
Click to expand...
Completely agree with the following from Tab:

"after three years of preparation and after barely qualifying for the World Cup...why didn’t we have our center back position and our number nine position pretty secure? That should be something with all that preparation time that should have been taken care of, I don’t feel that those positions should be up in the air."

"Lastly, the fact that there is a distance between us and the top nations."
 
Fulham cruised today 3-0. Ream even scored

streamin.me

Crystal Palace 0 - [2] Fulham - Tim Ream 71'

Video Crystal Palace 0 - [2] Fulham - Tim Ream 71' was uploaded to Streamin.me on Dec 26, 2022.
streamin.me streamin.me

This pretty much assures Fulham of easy survival now and they can start to have dreams of Europa. They are in 8th now (but have played more games than others around them so they are higher than they should be)
 
NewlyRetired said:
Fulham cruised today 3-0. Ream even scored

streamin.me

Crystal Palace 0 - [2] Fulham - Tim Ream 71'

Video Crystal Palace 0 - [2] Fulham - Tim Ream 71' was uploaded to Streamin.me on Dec 26, 2022.
streamin.me streamin.me

This pretty much assures Fulham of easy survival now and can start to have dreams of Europa. They are in 8th now (but have played more games than others around them so they are higher than they should be)
Click to expand...

Richards subbed in for his first appearance since the injury. Got a 30 minute run in.
 
oh oh, this would be an awful player to lose

==============================


Brian Sciaretta

@BrianSciaretta


Inter Miami homegrown midfielder Ben Cremaschi has made Argentina’s U-20 roster for CONMEBOL’s U-20 championships (U-20 WCQ). It’s a massive achievement as he’s is playing up a cycle and is the only 2005-born player on the team. He’s was last with the U.S U-20s in October.

Once he plays in the tournament, he will need to use a one time switch to ever return to the U.S set-up.

Inter Miami, meanwhile, is set to make a fortune. They’re going to see his value sky rocket as having the youngest player on Argentina’s U-20 team

For U.S Soccer, this would be a huge loss at the YNT level. Cremaschi is one of the top prospects in the country for his birth year.
https://twitter.com/BrianSciaretta/status/1607423096423694339/analytics
 
NewlyRetired said:
oh oh, this would be an awful player to lose

==============================

Brian Sciaretta
@BrianSciaretta


Inter Miami homegrown midfielder Ben Cremaschi has made Argentina’s U-20 roster for CONMEBOL’s U-20 championships (U-20 WCQ). It’s a massive achievement as he’s is playing up a cycle and is the only 2005-born player on the team. He’s was last with the U.S U-20s in October.

Once he plays in the tournament, he will need to use a one time switch to ever return to the U.S set-up.

Inter Miami, meanwhile, is set to make a fortune. They’re going to see his value sky rocket as having the youngest player on Argentina’s U-20 team

For U.S Soccer, this would be a huge loss at the YNT level. Cremaschi is one of the top prospects in the country for his birth year.
https://twitter.com/BrianSciaretta/status/1607423096423694339/analytics
Click to expand...



Brian Sciaretta

@BrianSciaretta

Ok.. point of clarification.. the list Argentina released is not final. A few cuts remain from this list of 28. So, Cremaschi might still not make their roster for the U-20 CONMEBOL championships.
 
NewlyRetired said:
oh oh, this would be an awful player to lose

==============================

Brian Sciaretta
@BrianSciaretta


Inter Miami homegrown midfielder Ben Cremaschi has made Argentina’s U-20 roster for CONMEBOL’s U-20 championships (U-20 WCQ). It’s a massive achievement as he’s is playing up a cycle and is the only 2005-born player on the team. He’s was last with the U.S U-20s in October.

Once he plays in the tournament, he will need to use a one time switch to ever return to the U.S set-up.

Inter Miami, meanwhile, is set to make a fortune. They’re going to see his value sky rocket as having the youngest player on Argentina’s U-20 team

For U.S Soccer, this would be a huge loss at the YNT level. Cremaschi is one of the top prospects in the country for his birth year.
https://twitter.com/BrianSciaretta/status/1607423096423694339/analytics
Click to expand...
He's never actually played for the U20s. He's been playing with the U19s, which is still a year up, but I don't remember him from the one game I watched.

He's getting some hype but I don't know enough about him to quantify the loss. Obviously anyone good enough to even be considered for Argentina two years up is a good prospect but until Argentina called him, no one was suggesting he should be playing with our U20s. To be fair, our central mids for the U20s is pretty crowded but I imagine Argentina is not lacking for prospects.
 
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