SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
From a NE homer perspective, I SUSPECT that JG >>> Matt Cassell. I'm not sure if the SF O line is good enough to make an informed decision this year though.
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Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter FF Ninja
- Start date
I think it is a great trade. Rookie Qbs are the most boom or bust position in the draft. And they typically take a long time to develop. The 49ers are saving their 1st round pick next year and, instead, using their 2 to get a game-ready qb who still has plenty of development ahead of him. Plus studying under Brady and Belichek is pretty valuable.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
So you think that overpaying him in the offseason to be certain of acquiring him is preferable to kicking the tires this year and then having the ability to pay market price at their choosing?
Odd, IMO but opinions vary
chinawildman
Footballguy
My first reaction was ugh... they got Matt Cassel'd... but then there are details that makes this situation totally different.
1) JG was a Pats 2nd rd pick. They saw him as a long term solution in NE and he's done nothing w/ his limited playing time to make them think otherwise. It's his impending salary/franchise tag that the Pats couldn't handle. Cassel almost went undrafted when he came out. To me it feels like the Pats sold high on Cassel, but their hand was forced with the JG trade.
2) If the niners lose JG in FA to another team after this year they will receive a high compensatory pick, likely late 3rd rd. They would lose roughly 64 spots in the draft which I think is a decent price to pay for the rights to test drive / franchise tag / exclusively negotiate w/ a potential franchise QB.
3) The top 3 QB prospects in the 2018 draft have been underwhelming this year. Regardless teams will reach for these guys come draft day. By trading for JG and not being forced to go QB, the niners essentially "make back" the premium they'd otherwise have to pay to reach for a QB and can also potentially leverage that top pick into multiple high picks.
4) As FF fans we always talk about about draft picks but discount the value of real money. With either a rookie or signing a QB in the offseason, there's a significant signing bonus that's paid to even get that QB on the field. With JG, the niners pay next to nothing to get a close look at him for half a season, leaving that money liquid. If JG was a call option, the 2nd rd pick was the premium paid for it.
5) The niners have A LOT of holes on their roster.The front office doesn't want to commit huge $ to a QB for 2018 because they know they're likely not going to immediately contend. JG's a starting caliber QB who's young enough to grow with the roster without immediately committing to a long term agreement.
JG could be the next Tony Romo, or next Matt Cassell... I think he'll be closer to the former based on his instincts and talent alone. That said, the reason I like this trade are for the minimized risks and flexibility it gives the front office.
1) JG was a Pats 2nd rd pick. They saw him as a long term solution in NE and he's done nothing w/ his limited playing time to make them think otherwise. It's his impending salary/franchise tag that the Pats couldn't handle. Cassel almost went undrafted when he came out. To me it feels like the Pats sold high on Cassel, but their hand was forced with the JG trade.
2) If the niners lose JG in FA to another team after this year they will receive a high compensatory pick, likely late 3rd rd. They would lose roughly 64 spots in the draft which I think is a decent price to pay for the rights to test drive / franchise tag / exclusively negotiate w/ a potential franchise QB.
3) The top 3 QB prospects in the 2018 draft have been underwhelming this year. Regardless teams will reach for these guys come draft day. By trading for JG and not being forced to go QB, the niners essentially "make back" the premium they'd otherwise have to pay to reach for a QB and can also potentially leverage that top pick into multiple high picks.
4) As FF fans we always talk about about draft picks but discount the value of real money. With either a rookie or signing a QB in the offseason, there's a significant signing bonus that's paid to even get that QB on the field. With JG, the niners pay next to nothing to get a close look at him for half a season, leaving that money liquid. If JG was a call option, the 2nd rd pick was the premium paid for it.
5) The niners have A LOT of holes on their roster.The front office doesn't want to commit huge $ to a QB for 2018 because they know they're likely not going to immediately contend. JG's a starting caliber QB who's young enough to grow with the roster without immediately committing to a long term agreement.
JG could be the next Tony Romo, or next Matt Cassell... I think he'll be closer to the former based on his instincts and talent alone. That said, the reason I like this trade are for the minimized risks and flexibility it gives the front office.
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strong
Footballguy
i guess i should have articulated: a large portion of your cap to a so-so QB.
if garapolo is gangbusters, then great. he's worth every cent. if he's anything less than a top 10 QB but they pay him 18 + mill, they're gonna be a tough spot.
just look at the 10 highest paid QBs in the league. the W-L record on that list isn't good...
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't think the benchmark can be "top 10 qb". That is a little aggressive.... they're not even giving that much up for him and we still don't know how much he's going to get paid. 18 Mill/year doesn't even crack the top 50% of nfl qb salaries. If they pay him 18/year (16th highest paid qb next year), and get even top 15 production that is a big win considering their roster. I still speculate that they will trade back and really help out their roster with a bunch of picks, while still having their franchise QB. We will have to wait and see though, but love the aggressiveness and forward thinking of the team to not sit and wait for their guy to maybe get scooped up elsewhere. Very small price to pay.
Shutout
Footballguy
Last night I thought this was a clear win/win based mostly on the pats couldn't continue to keep him and the Niners were essentially getting a head start on their build and buying time is hard to predict (but having this year and off-season to evaluate if he is their guy is priceless).
Today, I'm pulling back just a bit. I still think it's a good trade for both but now I'm thinking if that Niners pick does end up being pick 1 in round 2, they may have given up more than I first thought just because when the draft comes up, there is always a few teams who want to grab that pick as they think a great talent was left out from the first night.
Today, I'm pulling back just a bit. I still think it's a good trade for both but now I'm thinking if that Niners pick does end up being pick 1 in round 2, they may have given up more than I first thought just because when the draft comes up, there is always a few teams who want to grab that pick as they think a great talent was left out from the first night.
Um, they're going to have to pay market price one way or another. He's an unrestricted FA. So they could pay market price for a guy with almost no experience or they pay market price for a guy with whatever experience they give him this year. So they could possibly have gotten him cheaper if they had not traded a high 2nd for him. Then again, if he bombs, maybe they get him cheaper than if he'd stayed as a total unknown, but do they really want him then?
If you were looking to buy a used car and you chose to literally kick the tires instead of giving it a test drive and a real inspection, I suppose that is akin to throwing a guy into the fire after an 0-9 start and zero time to learn the playbook or gain chemistry. (Get it? Because that's borderline useless just like kicking tires
).I expected the poll to go this way, but I wasn't sure which was the purpose for starting the poll. I'm perfectly fine with the group think buying into this trade. Having a bunch of people be wrong with you won't end up making you right. This trade was about as dumb as the Chicago trade for Trubisky. Both teams could've had the player they wanted - without giving up draft picks - if they just waited.
Deamon
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Um, they're going to have to pay market price one way or another. He's an unrestricted FA. So they could pay market price for a guy with almost no experience or they pay market price for a guy with whatever experience they give him this year. So they could possibly have gotten him cheaper if they had not traded a high 2nd for him. Then again, if he bombs, maybe they get him cheaper than if he'd stayed as a total unknown, but do they really want him then?
If you were looking to buy a used car and you chose to literally kick the tires instead of giving it a test drive and a real inspection, I suppose that is akin to throwing a guy into the fire after an 0-9 start and zero time to learn the playbook or gain chemistry. (Get it? Because that's borderline useless just like kicking tires
Keep refusing to acknowledge anything that doesn't support your agenda. How is that wrong? They definitely could've signed him as an UDFA and, guess what? They're going to have to do it anyway unless they agree on an extension now... which will probably be about as much as they'd have paid in free agency anyway. They've got plenty of recent deals to go off of with Brock and Glennon most recently.
Deamon
Footballguy
Yep its a good pick. But their return and all that comes with it is still worth it. They'll get even bigger picks back
Deamon
Footballguy
What is my agenda? And what am I refusing to acknowledge? I genuinely don't care about the 49ers - I don't follow them closely and I've got little to no investment in 49ers in dynasty leagues. I just think this is a stupid, stupid trade and I'm shocked so many people don't see it.
Will you point me to it?
yep its in the other thread.
So which way did you vote in this poll?
Deamon
Footballguy
You refuse to acknowledge the points everyone is making. Or the points analysts are making that you said you couldn't find. This agenda seems to be more about you being right than anything. There have been great posts in here about the value that this trade gives the niners but you are too locked into thinking your way is right when the counter point is stronger than yours that you keep going in circles.
Deamon
Footballguy
You're a big boy, you can find it.
Assuming you voted that this is a good trade for the niners?
Shutout
Footballguy
Definitely.Yep its a good pick. But their return and all that comes with it is still worth it. They'll get even bigger picks back
Um, I've heard the points and they're really not good. Tell me what I'm missing:
- They get 8 games to evaluate a player that is being throw into the fire, behind a bad OL, without experience with the system or his teammates
- They get extra time to court him before he becomes an unrestricted free agent
- They retain the right to franchise him which would be more than it would cost to sign an inexperienced backup
- They get an extra 2 months of time with him to teach him the system for next year?
This is the post you quoted, is this the one? If not, is there a reason why you won't post it?
Deamon
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
I did read. Those are all the points you've made and they do overlap with some that other people have made. If you've got any other bullet points, add them.
I didn't vote. There needs to be a choice for "too early to tell".
There a reason you won't answer?
Your turn....
Shutout
Footballguy
Not trying to get in the middle of your all's discussion here but I'm interested: don't you think there is an intangible but potentially very valuable "value" for shanahan to get a hands on look and work with him in this case?
Just one guys opinion but when I look at what people were saying the. Downs may or may not have been willing g to give to trade for him 5 months ago and I see the general vibe that people think (just think) is the value of a qb with league experience who has had the benefit of learning from maybe the best qb/coach combo you can have, and I look at what kind of money it would take to get cousins IF he is even available, I personally can see the merit of spending the pick now versus getting into a bidding war later because there will be suitors. There are just too many teams out there that would be interested. I'm not saying I know they made the best decision but I can see it being looked at and saying this is not careless or obviously a bad idea.
Deamon
Footballguy
They're all outlined above. And you keep saying 2 more months and that has been factually disproved. I'm not gonna go back and quote things that you refuse to read because they weaken your point. You mention you wanted analysts opinions saying it was a good move. You got it and ignored. New points came up about getting to evaluate him on off the field things, etc. You ignored. In another thread you said blount is a clear 20+ carry back even though he's barely ever done it. You ignored the stats on that. You then said he you're "not at all surprised by the poll results" and then a minute later you claimed how shocked you were at how many people thought it was a good trade". Again these don't line up and you have very selective hearing on the subject and have bragged about your high IQ in other threads saying you're smarter than most people on the subject. Discussing this with you is pointless because you're stuck in your ways. You made the wrong call on this one and the majority agrees. Hopefully you can learn to live with that and move on. Great trade by the niners.
Deamon
Footballguy
In the other thread you said " I think this is a good trade"
You've changed your tune because this has become a disagreement. Let's stick to the topic and not change your mind because of something personal? Can you handle that?
And I didn't repost it because if I waited a few minutes you would have.
Next.
If this system is as complicated as Deamon claims, then how useful can it be? The guy is just now learning the playbook. How much would you expect of a rookie who missed OTAs, training camp, and preseason? If he's lights out, you just drove up the bidding price for him in free agency exponentially. If he sucks, is it because of the already mentioned awful circumstances or because he's not good? Shanahan could have him in for a personal workout as a free agent if he just wants to witness what kind of throws he can make, but as far as evaluating his abilities in games, it's going to be really hard to tell how much is his fault at this point if he struggles. He's got no experience and no chemistry and he'll be playing against NFL teams that are in mid-season form.
Like someone mentioned on the 1st page, if he had 1 more year on his contract, great trade. As is, bad trade. And I've said if they made this trade before training camp, I'd have been totally fine with it. But it's too late now for a fair evaluation. This is the kind of move a rookie GM and rookie HC make when in the midst of an 0-8 season.
Put them in bullet form or stop wasting time.
There are no football activities for Jan-Mar, so those 3 months don't count. I've already told you that.
And I never said I wanted analysts opinions saying it was a good move. Not sure who said that, but it wasn't me.
As for Blount, I said he was built for 20+ carries a game. Very few players in this era actually get 320 carries in a season, but to say he's a 12-16 carry back and Ajayi is a 20+ back is just kind of silly. Blount could be a 20+ carry back if he was in a situation that would provide it. Not sure why you're bringing that into this thread.
As for being shocked, I was shocked at all the approval in the other thread... but that approval is what led me to expect these results, but I wasn't sure exactly how they'd pan out. Thus the poll gave the data.
Nothing here is not lining up. You've just having trouble with the facts.
I did not brag about IQ... you simply said I wasn't smarter than everyone saying it is a good trade. I said I probably was.
And again, being against the majority does not make me wrong. The fact that you think "majority = right" tells a lot about you.
I absolutely did not say "I think this is a good trade" in the other thread, I've been abundantly clear that I think it depends on whether Jimmy G is on the team in the future.
This is like the 5th time I've exposed you for completely fabricating what someone has said. Are you ever truthful?
simsarge
Footballguy
Can they do that?
I would think that they'd need NE's permission to talk to him and that doesnt seem like something that a team in the midst of trade negotiations would bless off on. 
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Seems like they could make the trade contingent on first being able to work a deal out.Can they do that?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Looks like a bargain to me based on what the Vikings paid for Bradford.
This doesn't preclude the 49ers from drafting a QB next year and franchising JG if they want to trade him in the future.
Like the fact that he gets 8 game head start over a rookie to learn the offence. Even if he amounts to just an interm QB.
I am not overly concerned about training camp reports on JG. I still remember early reports on Aaron Rodgers had him looking like hot garbage compared to Favre. Yet he has done alright since.
Deamon
Footballguy
Sorry you couldn't follow non-bullet form. Maybe your IQ isn't as high as you've bragged about in other threads.
Yes you did say that. But okay.
I mentioned Blount because once again, as soon as someone makes a valid point that goes against your argument, you run. It's cowardly, but hey that shows a lot about you I guess. At least you have a high IQ. But yes, historically Ajayi has been given more carries that Blount per game over his career. Ajayi has Blounts size, with speed. Ajayi has MUCH better pass protection. Ajayi is a true 3 down back built for 20+ carries/ game. Blount is not. I'm sorry it frustrates you to be wrong again and feel the need to puff your chest and claim you're smarter than everyone.
There's lots of good football minds in here. Majority isn't always right but a lot of smart minds have completely disagreed with you and you continue to boast arrogantly and with a closed mind. It has become more about this battle than the task at hand. You don't accept being wrong much in life do you?
Anyways you're clearly wrong here and most people see that. You keep harping on "he could have him next year" but you're failing to recognize and acknowledge the fact that very realistic and valid occurrences could happen to prevent that. You fail to talk about how having 6 months pre-draft with him could give them a lot of crucial information about his character, leadership, adaptability, intangibles, etc. This is important stuff that any coach or GM would tell you. But because it doesn't go along with your argument, you completely shut it out and won't even budge on it. You'll probably create a reason why those things don't matter or aren't relevant.... just for the purpose of supporting your narrow-minded and false belief.
Hopefully you'll be able to grow from this and be able to admit that this was a great move. Even if he does well and leads his team, you will likely say "well he never won a title so it was a bad move". Bottom line is they took a risk that is being praised by people that are MUCH smarter than you. Time for you to move on to a new topic to get arrogant over. Good thing you aren't an NFL GM.
worst case they lose a 2nd rounder in a draft they have 6 picks in the first 4 rounds. He looks just good enough that they pass on a Darnold/Rosen who turns out to be a franchise QB. Garapolo turns out to be Matt Cassel 2.0
upside is they find a franchise QB, a quicker path to relevancy not having to burn a year on a rookie QB developing
its a bigger risk that just saying it’s a 2nd rd pick because it likely forces them to make a call on the QB draft
upside is they find a franchise QB, a quicker path to relevancy not having to burn a year on a rookie QB developing
its a bigger risk that just saying it’s a 2nd rd pick because it likely forces them to make a call on the QB draft
Deamon
Footballguy
Right, but Free Agency starts before the draft. So if they go get him during FA like some have suggested, then they'd be passing on Darnold/Rosen without knowing a THING. I'm still convinced that they're gonna get a good on/off the field evaluation of the guy (not sure which is more valuable) and make the call if they see him as their future or not. If not, they can always go hard on Cousins or draft a QB. They know hold all the cards and have all the options... for the cost of ONE of their 2nd rounders (that they'll likely get back in a trade back).
chinawildman
Footballguy
Things you're missing (or just choosing to ignore):
- Niners will get a high compensatory pick if JG walks in the offseason and someone else signs him.
- Niners pay next to nothing to get JG on the field as opposed to a huge signing bonus to JG or Cousins as FAs or a rookie QB to get them on the field.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Can someone explain why January-March wouldn't matter? Presuming both sides know Jimmy is coming back in 18 and the system remains the same. Is Jimmy not allowed to prepare for the next season during that time?
I get the lack of official team activities but I thought players could study the playbook and workout with teammates.
I get the lack of official team activities but I thought players could study the playbook and workout with teammates.
The compensatory pick is a good point. Let's be realistic here, what are we talking about? The last pick of the 3rd or 4th round? Hardly offsets one of the first picks of the 2nd round.chinawildman said:
The point(s) I keep making that you and Deamon seem to be missing (or choosing to ignore):
- This evaluation period has two problems:
If he does well, you just drove his free agency price way up
- If he does poorly, do you attribute that to him being bad or these facts:
he had ZERO prep time, much less a full set of OTAs, training camp, and preseason
- his offensive line was already struggling and now Staley may be out
- he has no chemistry with his teammates
- other teams are in mid-season from and he's not even in preseason form
[*]So you either drove the price up for this guy or you just made your own decision more complicated. Lose-lose. Or Lose-lose-lose if you consider the high 2nd round pick they threw away for this ridiculous exercise.
So how do they "have the ability to get a potential franchise QB" from this trade? Does the acronym UFA mean nothing to you people? They have two options after this year. Either they bid on him like they would have anyway without trading for him or they franchise him which would cost more than bidding on him. And obviously by bidding I mean throwing free agent contracts at him until he accepts.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
the guy is on a roll being a tool. I tend to cut people a little slack in those instances because I know I can sometimes get fired up about a topic and come off a little harsh. or maybe he's just a jerk desperately trying to prove everyone a hypocrite
I absolutely did not say "I think this is a good trade" in the other thread, I've been abundantly clear that I think it depends on whether Jimmy G is on the team in the future.
This is like the 5th time I've exposed you for completely fabricating what someone has said. Are you ever truthful?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
personally, I don't understand this trade.
you're giving up one of the top 3 2nd round picks for a guy you can't guarantee will be on your roster in 6 months. that makes sense for a team like MIN maybe who is looking at the playoffs with questionmarls at qb. not 49ers.
If sf can extend him then this trade turns out to be worth it I think, but at what price? if hes good, he costs a ton (best FA qb). of he's not good do you even resign him? does he have a shot to be good over the next 8 weeks? Many people in here would say "well it's only been 2 months."
Why do the straight now? Why not do this trade 6 months ago? San Francisco does not need to make this trade now, so it's confusing
you're giving up one of the top 3 2nd round picks for a guy you can't guarantee will be on your roster in 6 months. that makes sense for a team like MIN maybe who is looking at the playoffs with questionmarls at qb. not 49ers.
If sf can extend him then this trade turns out to be worth it I think, but at what price? if hes good, he costs a ton (best FA qb). of he's not good do you even resign him? does he have a shot to be good over the next 8 weeks? Many people in here would say "well it's only been 2 months."
Why do the straight now? Why not do this trade 6 months ago? San Francisco does not need to make this trade now, so it's confusing
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Here's my thinking on it:-OZ- said:
- That's the offseason. Players do whatever they want with that time. So Deamon is making a huge assumption that he'll actually be studying the playbook during that time.
- More importantly: It doesn't even matter. How long does a QB really need to learn the playbook? When was the last time a QB was signed as a free agent and wasn't able to perform week 1 because he didn't have enough time to learn the playbook? Deamon is making it out like those 3 months are critical, but they probably don't matter at all. The important part is actually running through those plays in OTAs and training camp.
It's contradictory logic. In reality, it probably does take SOME time, but more than two weeks and less than eight months, so the evaluation period is going to be next to worthless and JG would've been just fine learning the playbook starting in March.They should've made this trade before the season or not at all. Paying a premium price mid-season is just a rookie move by a rookie GM and rookie HC.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Obviously I've never played QB in the NFL, college, (or even high school), but it's been said that Shanny's playbook is complex to the point that players need a year. Seems to have been true with Ryan.Here's my thinking on it:
The funniest part about it is that Deamon is acting like JG needs months and months to learn the playbook, yet somehow this evaluation period where he's only had a week or two to learn the playbook is somehow going to be soooooo useful and totally worth the 2nd round pick.
- That's the offseason. Players do whatever they want with that time. So Deamon is making a huge assumption that he'll actually be studying the playbook during that time.
- More importantly: It doesn't even matter. How long does a QB really need to learn the playbook? When was the last time a QB was signed as a free agent and wasn't able to perform week 1 because he didn't have enough time to learn the playbook? Deamon is making it out like those 3 months are critical, but they probably don't matter at all. The important part is actually running through those plays in OTAs and training camp.
They should've made this trade before the season or not at all. Paying a premium price mid-season is just a rookie move by a rookie GM and rookie HC.
They weren't getting Jimmy before the season at this price.
Honestly if it were my decision I'd draft one of the 5 in 18. But I don't think trading for Jimmy is a mistake if the coach wanted him.
Dude, for the last time I didn't brag. I specifically said I wasn't trying to be pompous, simply that it was a strange assertion you made that I wasn't smarter than these "analysts" (aka journalism majors).Deamon said:
Second, I definitely did not say I wanted links to analysts opinions. Why are you so insistent that I did? So weird. I keep telling you I don't care about them, so why would I request analysts opinions? So weird.
Third, I made the bullet form to force you to be concise and realize just how weak your points actually are. I know you think the more you write, the stronger your case, but if you actually put your points in a concise bullet point format, you might realize just how weak your case is. Probably not, but it was worth a shot. Not surprised you weaseled out of it (cowardly) and resorted to personal attacks
. I will talk about Blount in the Blount thread if you want. It is stupid to bring it in here. Reply to me there if you want to discuss it. Hilarious that you say I'm clearly wrong here as that's not possible. The only thing clear is that I'm wasting my time with you. I've changed my mind about the Blount thing. Don't reply to me there (or here). Simple concepts are way over your head so there's really no point in discussing them with you, much less anything more advanced.
-OZ-
Footballguy
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