Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers? (2 Viewers)

[FF Ninja]

Obviously I've never played QB in the NFL, college, (or even high school), but it's been said that Shanny's playbook is complex to the point that players need a year. Seems to have been true with Ryan. 

They weren't getting Jimmy before the season at this price. 

Honestly if it were my decision I'd draft one of the 5 in 18. But I don't think trading for Jimmy is a mistake if the coach wanted him. 

Matt Ryan's OL got a lot better in the 2nd year (I think they added 3 starters, including Alex Mack, possibly the best center in the NFL). I think that played a huge role last year. Schaub picked up Kubiak's playbook as a free agent and Shanny's is very similar.

I didn't mean to imply that they could've gotten him for a 2nd, but just saying that IF they were going to trade for him, they should've done it when he had time to learn the system. If this system is so complex that guys need a year, then this evaluation period is not going to yield any useful information.

I don't think it is being discussed enough that this trade could easily move them out of the hunt for 1.01. That's huge. They really should have continued to tank - it worked great for Indy (well, until Luck's injury). 

 

[Interseptopus]

Obviously I've never played QB in the NFL, college, (or even high school), but it's been said that Shanny's playbook is complex to the point that players need a year. Seems to have been true with Ryan. 

They weren't getting Jimmy before the season at this price. 

Honestly if it were my decision I'd draft one of the 5 in 18. But I don't think trading for Jimmy is a mistake if the coach wanted him. 

yeah this where I'm at. 

In order for this trade to be good, there has to be commitment beyond 17, obviously.

I'd like to think SF has every intention if locking him up long term if they gave up a 2nd. 

He's likely better than any rookie the eyd throw out there in 18, and he has a full 10 months to learn with zero pressure

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I like it.

1) If you go back to 2015, Matt Ryan struggled his first year in Shanny's system.  In 2016, he took off.  It's not the same with JG, but he gets in-season experience he can build from for this upcoming off-season.

2) It buys them time.  Chances are - they will have to at the very least franchise him.  It may not be ideal, but I think SF from a cap perspective is way under.  So this move really takes QB off the table for 2018.  The draft looks much more sketchy in terms of finding a franchise guy this year (Darnold, Rosen and Allen have all underperformed).  So grabbing a QB in FA would have necessitated a bloated long term deal.

 

[thecatch]

Things you're missing (or just choosing to ignore):

• Niners will get a high compensatory pick if JG walks in the offseason and someone else signs him. 
  
• Niners pay next to nothing to get JG on the field as opposed to a huge signing bonus to JG or Cousins as FAs or a rookie QB to get them on the field.  
  

Basically the ability to get a high return (potential franchise QB) by paying a premium (2nd round pick) and limiting downside (no upfront money, no long term commitment, and worst case scenario they get a comp pick back) means this is the football equivalent of a call option. Maybe you just think JG isn't a good QB and it doesn't add up for you, but the business aspects of the move look sound.

Doesnt the comp picks formula factor in total FAs lost versus signed?  Even if the Niners lose JG, given their cap space situation they are likely to be spending a lot more on acquiring free agents than losing major FA. 

 

[thecatch]

Honestly if it were my decision I'd draft one of the 5 in 18. But I don't think trading for Jimmy is a mistake if the coach wanted him. 

I half agree with this - if they don’t trust Shanahan to evaluate QBs, he was a worthless hire in the first place. 

But I think the pressure of being 0-8 may have forced Lynch/Shanahan to make a move for the sake of doing something. An already low interest in the team is withering and I suspect starting their rookie campaigns 0-16 is something they want to avoid at all costs, even if they have long term deals. 

 

[humpback]

Doesnt the comp picks formula factor in total FAs lost versus signed?  Even if the Niners lose JG, given their cap space situation they are likely to be spending a lot more on acquiring free agents than losing major FA. 

Correct. Damn those facts!

 

[Bronco Billy]

Um, they're going to have to pay market price one way or another. He's an unrestricted FA. So they could pay market price for a guy with almost no experience or they pay market price for a guy with whatever experience they give him this year. So they could possibly have gotten him cheaper if they had not traded a high 2nd for him. Then again, if he bombs, maybe they get him cheaper than if he'd stayed as a total unknown, but do they really want him then?

If you were looking to buy a used car and you chose to literally kick the tires instead of giving it a test drive and a real inspection, I suppose that is akin to throwing a guy into the fire after an 0-9 start and zero time to learn the playbook or gain chemistry. (Get it? Because that's borderline useless just like kicking tires ).

You do understand that there is a lot more to evaluating a player than game time, right?  How many hours a week do you think starting QBs spend at the team center as opposed to the amount of weekly hours playing in a game?

And if you intend to let a QB get to the open market and then you are going to get into a bidding war, you will absolutely pay beyond market price if you intend to guarantee he signs with you.  Basic econ 101.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Can someone explain why January-March wouldn't matter? Presuming both sides know Jimmy is coming back in 18 and the system remains the same. Is Jimmy not allowed to prepare for the next season during that time? 

I get the lack of official team activities but I thought players could study the playbook and workout with teammates.

Player organized activities occur frequently during this time frame

 

[FF Ninja]

You do understand that there is a lot more to evaluating a player than game time, right?  How many hours a week do you think starting QBs spend at the team center as opposed to the amount of weekly hours playing in a game?

And if you intend to let a QB get to the open market and then you are going to get into a bidding war, you will absolutely pay beyond market price if you intend to guarantee he signs with you.  Basic econ 101.

That's why they have interviews and private workouts. I don't mean to imply that this extra time to evaluate him has a value of absolutely zero, but it is being way overstated and is very possibly very close to "negligible." A GM worth his money should be able to do that kind of research about a player that's been in the league for four years without trading a high second round pick for him mid-season. I'm sure Lynch could get in touch with Jimmy's old college coach, his old teammates, maybe even some of his coaches or trainers at New England to find out about his character or work habits. That's the GM's job. You don't trade high draft picks to make your job easier! People are acting like they either trade for him now or that information will be a total mystery. It's simply not true.

He's hitting the market either way. UFA. The other option is to franchise him which would cost more than signing him. Look at recent free agent signings. The franchise tag would be an extreme overpay. So he's hitting the free agent market. They just rented him for 8 games. Now of course they could give him an extension in the meantime, but what do you want to bet that, if they do, it'll be in line or more than those recent free agent signings? This 2nd round pick is not going to save them money. But why are we acting like money is an issue for this team in the first place? They got 99 problems, but cap space ain't one. So even if this 2nd round pick saved them one to two million per year on this contract, was that really worth it? 

 

[JaxBill]

Dude, for the last time I didn't brag. I specifically said I wasn't trying to be pompous, simply that it was a strange assertion you made that I wasn't smarter than these "analysts" (aka journalism majors). 

Dismissive, not pompous. Got it.

 

[Bronco Billy]

personally, I don't understand this trade. 

you're giving up one of the top 3 2nd round picks for a guy you can't guarantee will be on your roster in 6 months. that makes sense for a team like MIN maybe who is looking at the playoffs with questionmarls at qb.  not 49ers. 

If sf can extend him then this trade turns out to be worth it I think, but at what price? if hes good, he costs a ton (best FA qb). of he's not good do you even resign him? does he have a shot to be good over the next 8 weeks? Many people in here would say "well it's only been 2 months."

Why do the straight now? Why not do this trade 6 months ago? San Francisco does not need to make this trade now, so it's confusing

NE wasn’t taking a 2nd rounder for Garappolo at the beginning of the year, I believe.  There were rumors of them rejecting that level of trade if memory serves.

Having Garappolo on the roster now gives the team a huge leg up in signing him long term, and leverage with the possibility of tagging him as well.  If they think Garappolo is THE guy, and/or they consider him a better/less risky prospect than next year’s rookie crop, then this was a very good gamble for SF.  It may not end up like they want, but the mindset behind it seems right.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lost in all of this is the possibility that maybe Shanahan knows what he is doing. From what I have seen, the Niners have been pursuing JG since he took over. So it’s been 6-8 months that he’s been after him. 

Shanahan made Matt Schaub a decent fantasy QB, insisted the Skins draft Cousins even though they forced RGIII in him, and took Ryan’s game to another level. 

I don’t think the Niners care that much about the draft pick or the money it will take to extend JG. It’s the cost of doing business in today’s NFL. 

This is where the Niners and Boriwns differ. Cleveland’s new regime has tried to build a team and then make a push to get their guy (granted they have made attempts to get a QB that haven’t worked out). 

SF looks like they went after their guy and will then look to build off of that. Maybe they still will draft a QB early, but I’m guessing they think Jimmy G. Is their man. 

San Fran has a lot of holes to fill and doesn’t have the best of O lines. If they are patient and can be happy will making steps in the right direction things could work out. 

 

[Anarchy99]

NE wasn’t taking a 2nd rounder for Garappolo at the beginning of the year, I believe.  There were rumors of them rejecting that level of trade if memory serves.

BB explained a lot this week. They didn’t want to part with JG but the clock had run out. He said they have been trying to negotiate an extension for months but JG wasn’t interested in a back up deal and didn’t want to keep sitting behind Brady. 

NE didn’t want to tag him (they wanted the ability to tag someone else). They couldn’t allocate almost $40 million on the QB position. So they traded JG for the best they could get. 

All the talk about crazy offers and what they wanted back was all hype but no substance. Apparently the best offer they got was a 2nd and a mid to late round pick. 

Theu got half a year of Brady insurance and reached the point where keeping him would hurt the team more than getting rid of him. 

I thought they would take the pick and roll it over in a trade for an actual player to bolster the defense or the O line. Or maybe another receiver. But B.B. doesn’t usually go all in and always has a vision across multiple seasons. That’s part of the reason why they stay competitive year over year. 

 

[msudaisy26]

This is simple. 

A high 2nd is a low cost to see if you have a franchise qb. Here is why. 

Signing a guy like Cousins is going to cost you about 30 million a year and 80 million + of guaranteed money. 

Signing a backup is going to cost you a lot. Probably 15 to 20 million a year and a lot of guaranteed money. See Glennon, Osweiler, etc. 

Drafting a franchise qb usually happens with higher draft picks, yes it can happen in the 2nd round or later, but more times than not that fails. 

Look at the story that the Browns were about to pay a 2nd and 3rd for McCarron. 

If JG is there guy he didn't cost them any draft choices, they are going to make up that 2nd and then some when they trade back this coming draft. 

Finding a franchise qb is always a gamble, whether it is the draft, trade or free agency. The 49ers gave themselves the easiest outs if it doesn't work, while giving themselves the most flexibility if it does work. The only way you don't think this is a good move is if you think JG is a bust and the qb in this draft class is going to be an absolute stud. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Lost in all of this is the possibility that maybe Shanahan knows what he is doing. From what I have seen, the Niners have been pursuing JG since he took over. So it’s been 6-8 months that he’s been after him. 

Shanahan made Matt Schaub a decent fantasy QB, insisted the Skins draft Cousins even though they forced RGIII in him, and took Ryan’s game to another level. 

I don’t think the Niners care that much about the draft pick or the money it will take to extend JG. It’s the cost of doing business in today’s NFL. 

This is where the Niners and Boriwns differ. Cleveland’s new regime has tried to build a team and then make a push to get their guy (granted they have made attempts to get a QB that haven’t worked out). 

SF looks like they went after their guy and will then look to build off of that. Maybe they still will draft a QB early, but I’m guessing they think Jimmy G. Is their man. 

San Fran has a lot of holes to fill and doesn’t have the best of O lines. If they are patient and can be happy will making steps in the right direction things could work out. 

Well, let's not get carried away with giving Kyle credit for all of that. Kubiak took Kyle under his wing just like Kyle's dad took Kubiak under his wing. Kubiak brought Schaub to Houston and made him what he was. Kyle was mostly along for the ride, starting out with Kubiak as like a 27 yo WR coach. And wasn't it Kyle's dad that drafted Cousins? Mike was the HC at the time but maybe you know more about that story. And if we're being fair, let's not forget that it's been less than a year since Kyle lost the super bowl with straight up bone headed play calling. I don't mean to make too much out of it since in-game strategy is different than talent evaluation, but that was really, really bad so he's going to have to earn a reputation of "knowing what he's doing" rather than me just assuming he does based on nothing more than grace.

Back to the trade, I don't get why you say they had to spend a 2nd as "cost of doing business" to acquire him. They've got the cap space to sign him as a free agent in a few months and this trade isn't even likely to net them a noteworthy discount. So it really wasn't cost of doing business. It was a self imposed cost to get him 5 months early.

I don't have a strong opinion on Jimmy. I don't doubt he could be a legitimate franchise QB. It's certainly within the realm of possibilities. I just don't see the point in trading away a high 2nd for him now. It definitely costs you the high second and could easily cost you valuable draft capital if you win a few meaningless games with this mid-season QB upgrade to move you out of contention for 1.01. We've seen the bounty teams have traded to move up just 1-3 spots at the top of the draft. This could be a very costly move, but no one seems to be factoring that in. If Jimmy's your guy, keep losing/tanking, sign him in 5 months with all that cap room, and trade back from 1.01 or 1.02 and build a team around him.

 

[Scooby1974]

I expected the poll to go this way, but I wasn't sure which was the purpose for starting the poll. I'm perfectly fine with the group think buying into this trade. Having a bunch of people be wrong with you won't end up making you right. This trade was about as dumb as the Chicago trade for Trubisky. Both teams could've had the player they wanted - without giving up draft picks - if they just waited.

Agreed, they could have had the same player without the draft pick. The only difference is this way they will still have the same chance on paper (IF THEY WANT IT), BUT it comes with a WEALTH of knowledge procured from on site conversations, practice time, personal interactions, game play (albeit in the midst of less than ideal circumstances) that they wouldn't otherwise have had with JG on the East coast.

You may turn out right Ninja...it may be a blown pick giveaway and NE may use it to draft their next Tom Brady at #34 and dominate the league for another 10 years. But it also may turn into SF drafting at top QB at #1 or #2 (assuming they keep doing poorly) because JG stinks or doesn't fit and they STILL have 50 mill saved in cap space, a rookie QB to develop, and down that #34 pick. In my mind, the security that comes with a good "test drive" is still worth the chance of over paying with Osweiller money ($72 mill with $37 guaranteed for two years on a 4 year deal).

It's a risk either way...and frankly...I think SF is in a better spot either way IF they do their due diligence with JG in the next 2+ months (which is benefited with the tremendous investment already made in JG from the NE franchise).

 

[Scooby1974]

I didn't vote. There needs to be a choice for "too early to tell".

Your turn....

TRUTH

 

[ghostguy123]

Question for those who think signing JG will be a problem.

Would you rather take around 20 million guaranteed for one year playing for a rebuilding team and risk injury or poor play, or sign something like a 5 year deal for around 100 million where maybe 40 million is guaranteed?

My numbers are just approximates but I will assume you get the idea.  

JG is not going to want to get franchised.  I firmly believe he will end up signing for less than if he was an open market FA.  

 

[Warhogs]

I like the trade. I don't think we know enough about Garappolo to know if he warrants the pick but they now have a guy locked in as the guy they think they want to build this team around. I think the big win for them is they filled this need and they still are holding what will be a very early first round pick next year. They can grab a blue chip prospect at another position or just as likely they can trade down and accumulate a lot of valuable picks by doing so. If you believe in Garappolo you addressed that position without having to burn that valuable round 1 pick next year.

 

[Scooby1974]

If this system is as complicated as Deamon claims, then how useful can it be? The guy is just now learning the playbook. How much would you expect of a rookie who missed OTAs, training camp, and preseason? If he's lights out, you just drove up the bidding price for him in free agency exponentially. If he sucks, is it because of the already mentioned awful circumstances or because he's not good? Shanahan could have him in for a personal workout as a free agent if he just wants to witness what kind of throws he can make, but as far as evaluating his abilities in games, it's going to be really hard to tell how much is his fault at this point if he struggles. He's got no experience and no chemistry and he'll be playing against NFL teams that are in mid-season form.

Like someone mentioned on the 1st page, if he had 1 more year on his contract, great trade. As is, bad trade. And I've said if they made this trade before training camp, I'd have been totally fine with it. But it's too late now for a fair evaluation. This is the kind of move a rookie GM and rookie HC make when in the midst of an 0-8 season. 

• Obviously useful enough for a Head Coach to want to take the risk of doing it.
  
• JG isn't a rookie, he has been practicing/playing NFL football with a storied franchise QB/Coach Combo
  
• Exponentially? Doubtful TOM BRADY himself could do that with the players SF has on their team right now. Could it go up a bit, sure, but if it does SF will now feel CONFIDENT PAYING it.
  
• If he sucks, they will have firsthand experience in seeing it and getting to the bottom of WHY. Do you think they are UNAWARE of the holes in their roster?
  
• Shanahan can have him for a personal visit, sure...but not GAME experience in the midst of real pressure, real game prep, real film prep, real throwing under real pass rush in games that count and when everyone is in a groove....not on vacation and whiped out after a season. I think all this is VERY valuable, and apparently the SF organization (not armchair GM's) seem to think so too. It's their jobs that are on the line here.
  
• It is likely MUCH LESS difficult for REAL Coaches/GM's to assess things, over a 2-3 MONTH Stretch than it is in a 1-2 day visit.
  
• He's got no experience? How long has he been playing NFL football? How many meetins/film study sessions/coaching session with Tom Brady and Bellichek and the QB coaches?
  
• Mid season form...you do know that he just went through offseason, pre-season, and half the season with the Pats, right? Granted there is no chemistry, but it's doubtful he has chemistry with Gronk/Eddleman/Ammendola/etc. now and it wouldn't have it with Garcon/etc. in April either.
  
• There are MANY advantages to doing this trade for SF. The worse it does is they lose the pic and confidently sign him to a long term deal and he doesn't work out.---but there will be a LOT of evidence/knowledge to help prevent this due to the trade.
  
• The Best it does is it gives SF a start right now, invested in Quality NFL QB and allows them to either take ANOTHER STUD at the top of the draft RATHER than a QB they HOPE turns out basically site unseen/only college experience....that does NOT play the QB position. OR they trade the top pick and move down a few spots and gather up a bunch more pics from a team DESPERATE for a QB.
  

I just don't think this could EVER turn into a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING bad trade...but signing him after a measly 2 day test drive, winning the INEVITABLE bidding war that will come (Basically Cousins and Him available) whether he was traded for or not, signing him to a big long term contract, basically site unseen COULD be FAR MORE Franchise Crippling. This move GREATLY REDUCES the chances of another Osweiller/Glennon signing...could it STILL happen, sure, but the odds are NOT the same.....Osweiller and Glennon didn't have the mentoring/coaching that JG did either. This trade makes these scenarios more Apples to Oranges to me.

 

[Scooby1974]

Let's not forget the Kings ransom of picks and players they are gonna get from some QB needy team looking to move up for their first rounder.

Yes, if they WANT and CAN SIGN sign JG or Cousins.....they've got $$ and cap room for days.

 

[thecatch]

I just don't think this could EVER turn into a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING bad trade...

It could - they could spin their wheels trying to figure out if JG is a franchise QB for 1.5-2.5 years, passing on other opportunities (like a QB at the top of this draft). We’ll see. For the proponents of the trade to be right, Lynch and Shanahan are going to have to really get a feel for what kind of QB JG can be over the next couple of months. 

 

[chinawildman]

• This evaluation period has two problems:
  
  If he does well, you just drove his free agency price way up
  
• If he does poorly, do you attribute that to him being bad or these facts:
  
  he had ZERO prep time, much less a full set of OTAs, training camp, and preseason
  
• his offensive line was already struggling and now Staley may be out
  
• he has no chemistry with his teammates
  
• other teams are in mid-season from and he's not even in preseason form
  

[*]So you either drove the price up for this guy or you just made your own decision more complicated. Lose-lose. Or Lose-lose-lose if you consider the high 2nd round pick they threw away for this ridiculous exercise. 

Answering that question is why GMs and coaches get paid the big bucks no? You're treating this like FF, which is probably the most common mistake I see on this board when armchair GMs criticize real football decisions. For instance Kaepernick had an all-star finish to his inaugural half season as a starter, but the niners didn't give him a monster contract. WHY? Because they knew what kind of QB he was. The numbers and success aren't going to tell the whole story, and in that case they made a good call not tying their future to him.

Look at it this way, if signing Cousins to a rich contract in the offseason were the baseline benchmark, then suppose JG goes in and plays lights out. You'll have a guy who you know excels in your system with a subpar supporting case that will be cheaper than Cousins. That sounds like a win to me. If JG just has a mediocre ROS (most likely scenario), they will still get an up close evaluation of him and have a lot more "knowns" before negotiating begins. That is still better than trying to outbid other teams for the services of someone you have no firsthand experience with. If he completely flops or has a career ending injury, they call it a wash and let him go hoping for a compensatory pick. The worst case scenario here is also better than the worst case scenario where they sign JG to a long term contract, pay him a huge bonus, THEN find out he's a flop.

You assume that the value of "JG - the guy you have in your system for half a season" and "JG the unknown FA" are not any different because his on-field performance will dictate the price of his contract. While the latter portion of that argument is true, the 2 situations are dissimilar in value because one is a known quantity while the other is not. You also continue to ignore the mitigation of downside risk from committing huge amounts of $ to a FA or rookie QB sight unseen. In any market, there is a price that comes with certainty and the elimination of risks and unknowns. Think of where Cam Newton was drafted in FF in his rookie season compared to how much he was worth after a month of action. Same principles apply here. Acquiring Cam the more "known quantity" isn't prima facie a bad move purely because "you coulda had him cheaper in the draft a month ago". 

 

[Scooby1974]

The compensatory pick is a good point. Let's be realistic here, what are we talking about? The last pick of the 3rd or 4th round? Hardly offsets one of the first picks of the 2nd round.

The point(s) I keep making that you and Deamon seem to be missing (or choosing to ignore):

• This evaluation period has two problems:
  
  If he does well, you just drove his free agency price way up
  
• If he does poorly, do you attribute that to him being bad or these facts:
  
  he had ZERO prep time, much less a full set of OTAs, training camp, and preseason
  
• his offensive line was already struggling and now Staley may be out
  
• he has no chemistry with his teammates
  
• other teams are in mid-season from and he's not even in preseason form
  

[*]So you either drove the price up for this guy or you just made your own decision more complicated. Lose-lose. Or Lose-lose-lose if you consider the high 2nd round pick they threw away for this ridiculous exercise. 

So how do they "have the ability to get a potential franchise QB" from this trade? Does the acronym UFA mean nothing to you people? They have two options after this year. Either they bid on him like they would have anyway without trading for him or they franchise him which would cost more than bidding on him. And obviously by bidding I mean throwing free agent contracts at him until he accepts.

• Agreed, the compensatory pick is a good point. It's something.
  
• I don't think paying more money is an issue for SF, coupon or no coupon, they are going to spend A LOT of money on a QB so I toss the $$$ savings out. If they want him, they HAVE to pay more than anyone else.
  
• If he does play poorly, they will have the major advantage of talking to him, listening, watching practice, watching how he handles the failure or perceived failure, watching how he rallies or doesn't rally his teammates, etc. Again, SF KNOWS they have weak spots that they need to consider. No doubt they consider the same things with Beathard too, but perhaps JG comes in and overcomes SOME of those things and they see him turn some of the tide in 2 months regardless of wins/losses.
  
• SF has no issue with money.
  
• How in the world does gaining TONS MORE KNOWLEDGE make investing money in him MORE Complicated than taking a near blind guess like like the Texans and Bears did?
  
• Agreed that EVERYONE has the same ability to get a potential franchise QB in JG...what this does is it gives the 9ers TONS of KNOWLEDGE and MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE to know if they SHOULD go after him...rather than a blind stab as I mentioned above.
  
• Without this trade, they don't have any advantage in Knowledge for the front office to make further personnel moves.
  
• Again, $$$ is no issue in SF...so I don't think any argument for or against money plays into this JG scenerio at all.
  

 

[chinawildman]

Doesnt the comp picks formula factor in total FAs lost versus signed?  Even if the Niners lose JG, given their cap space situation they are likely to be spending a lot more on acquiring free agents than losing major FA. 

I'm not familiar with the timeframe, but won't JG count towards the total tally of FAs lost/acquired for THIS SEASON? 

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm not familiar with the timeframe, but won't JG count towards the total tally of FAs lost/acquired for THIS SEASON? 

Yes. If JG ends up signing with another team, his loss would be applied to the loss side of the equation for this year in the compensatory pick formula. But if the Niners go on a shopping spree with their $100 million in cap room, they may not get anything for losing Jimmy G., and any compensatory picks would be doled out for the 2019 draft.

The earliest any compensatory pick could ever be would be pick number 97 (after 3 rounds). The earliest the pick they traded to NE could be would be pick 33 (if they end up with the worst record this season). So even if they got awarded the best possible compensatory pick, it could be two full rounds later and a year later than the pick they just traded.

 

[Phenomena]

It could - they could spin their wheels trying to figure out if JG is a franchise QB for 1.5-2.5 years, passing on other opportunities (like a QB at the top of this draft). We’ll see. For the proponents of the trade to be right, Lynch and Shanahan are going to have to really get a feel for what kind of QB JG can be over the next couple of months. 

Agreed - it absolutely could turn franchise crippling.

Normally teams will draft low for years then hit on a QB and go on a run. Seahawks are one example, 49ers for a year, Ravens after they got Flacco and had a good defense, Denver drafted really well then signed Manning in free agency (was not a trade)... these are the teams that win Super Bowls. Draft high, accumulate talent, then get a QB.  Or if you already have a QB - draft and develop, per Packers/Patriots/Giants/etc.  You don't win Super Bowls by giving out massive contracts AND draft picks to single players.

That's not what the 49ers are doing.  They are taking a bottom-tier team and trying to inject a mediocre (maybe slightly above-average) QB.  That's not how you win Super Bowls. In addition to trading away a very valuable 2nd round pick, they have to immediately give Garrapolo a gigantic contract. These deals do not work out nearly as often as people think.  And even if Jimmy G is a solid QB, the team is going to be hamstrung with less top picks and less cap space than other bottom-tier teams - so they're going to be fighting an uphill battle.

It sucks to be irrelevant for 4-5 years but the right way to build a team is to draft and develop, then wait to hit on a QB.  That's how the Packers, Patriots, Seahawks, Steelers, and many other elite teams were built.  You rarely, if ever, win Super Bowls by making trades. Denver isn't even an example of that - Manning was cut and was a free agent. They didn't give up a pick to get him - just the big contract.

 

[Scooby1974]

Matt Ryan's OL got a lot better in the 2nd year (I think they added 3 starters, including Alex Mack, possibly the best center in the NFL). I think that played a huge role last year. Schaub picked up Kubiak's playbook as a free agent and Shanny's is very similar.

I didn't mean to imply that they could've gotten him for a 2nd, but just saying that IF they were going to trade for him, they should've done it when he had time to learn the system. If this system is so complex that guys need a year, then this evaluation period is not going to yield any useful information.

I don't think it is being discussed enough that this trade could easily move them out of the hunt for 1.01. That's huge. They really should have continued to tank - it worked great for Indy (well, until Luck's injury). 

• NE has to be willing to trade JG...it's doubtful they were until now.
  
• I HIGHLY DOUBT JG is going to turn this mess around to the point of losing a top pick EVEN IF HE's AMAZING. There is also NOTHING saying they don't keep JG on ice and "suck for Luck" like the Colts did (ironically may be doing all over again) for a few weeks and toss him in when he's further along. Get all you can out of film study, practice time, conversations, etc.
  

 

[chinawildman]

Yes. If JG ends up signing with another team, his loss would be applied to the loss side of the equation for this year in the compensatory pick formula. But if the Niners go on a shopping spree with their $100 million in cap room, they may not get anything for losing Jimmy G., and any compensatory picks would be doled out for the 2019 draft.

The earliest any compensatory pick could ever be would be pick number 97 (after 3 rounds). The earliest the pick they traded to NE could be would be pick 33 (if they end up with the worst record this season). So even if they got awarded the best possible compensatory pick, it could be two full rounds later and a year later than the pick they just traded.

Do you know when the FA loss period begin and does it include players that were released for salary reasons like Brooks or Bowman?

 

[FF Ninja]

Agreed, they could have had the same player without the draft pick. The only difference is this way they will still have the same chance on paper (IF THEY WANT IT), BUT it comes with a WEALTH of knowledge procured from on site conversations, practice time, personal interactions, game play (albeit in the midst of less than ideal circumstances) that they wouldn't otherwise have had with JG on the East coast.

You may turn out right Ninja...it may be a blown pick giveaway and NE may use it to draft their next Tom Brady at #34 and dominate the league for another 10 years. But it also may turn into SF drafting at top QB at #1 or #2 (assuming they keep doing poorly) because JG stinks or doesn't fit and they STILL have 50 mill saved in cap space, a rookie QB to develop, and down that #34 pick. In my mind, the security that comes with a good "test drive" is still worth the chance of over paying with Osweiller money ($72 mill with $37 guaranteed for two years on a 4 year deal).

It's a risk either way...and frankly...I think SF is in a better spot either way IF they do their due diligence with JG in the next 2+ months (which is benefited with the tremendous investment already made in JG from the NE franchise).

Like I mentioned to someone else, a good GM should be able to find most of that information without trading for a guy mid-season. He's been in the league for four years. Do some due diligence, Lynch! Earn your GM money!

You are correct that there are a lot of "ifs" and it could go either way, but my point is just that right now this boils down to an 0-8 team trading a 2nd round pick to rent an unrestricted free agent. Due to a lack of prep time, the evaluation won't be very useful and they could play themselves out of the 1.01, so they are spending a high second and risking a lot of draft capital here. I don't mean to imply this evaluation period has no value, but I just don't think it is worth what they're paying. This is a rebuilding team. They need the 1.01 or 1.02 and they could really use the 2.01. Just be patient and sign him in free agency and build around him with those picks.

• Obviously useful enough for a Head Coach to want to take the risk of doing it.
  
• JG isn't a rookie, he has been practicing/playing NFL football with a storied franchise QB/Coach Combo
  
• Exponentially? Doubtful TOM BRADY himself could do that with the players SF has on their team right now. Could it go up a bit, sure, but if it does SF will now feel CONFIDENT PAYING it.
  
• If he sucks, they will have firsthand experience in seeing it and getting to the bottom of WHY. Do you think they are UNAWARE of the holes in their roster?
  
• Shanahan can have him for a personal visit, sure...but not GAME experience in the midst of real pressure, real game prep, real film prep, real throwing under real pass rush in games that count and when everyone is in a groove....not on vacation and whiped out after a season. I think all this is VERY valuable, and apparently the SF organization (not armchair GM's) seem to think so too. It's their jobs that are on the line here.
  
• It is likely MUCH LESS difficult for REAL Coaches/GM's to assess things, over a 2-3 MONTH Stretch than it is in a 1-2 day visit.
  
• He's got no experience? How long has he been playing NFL football? How many meetins/film study sessions/coaching session with Tom Brady and Bellichek and the QB coaches?
  
• Mid season form...you do know that he just went through offseason, pre-season, and half the season with the Pats, right? Granted there is no chemistry, but it's doubtful he has chemistry with Gronk/Eddleman/Ammendola/etc. now and it wouldn't have it with Garcon/etc. in April either.
  
• There are MANY advantages to doing this trade for SF. The worse it does is they lose the pic and confidently sign him to a long term deal and he doesn't work out.---but there will be a LOT of evidence/knowledge to help prevent this due to the trade.
  
• The Best it does is it gives SF a start right now, invested in Quality NFL QB and allows them to either take ANOTHER STUD at the top of the draft RATHER than a QB they HOPE turns out basically site unseen/only college experience....that does NOT play the QB position. OR they trade the top pick and move down a few spots and gather up a bunch more pics from a team DESPERATE for a QB.
  

I just don't think this could EVER turn into a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING bad trade...but signing him after a measly 2 day test drive, winning the INEVITABLE bidding war that will come (Basically Cousins and Him available) whether he was traded for or not, signing him to a big long term contract, basically site unseen COULD be FAR MORE Franchise Crippling. This move GREATLY REDUCES the chances of another Osweiller/Glennon signing...could it STILL happen, sure, but the odds are NOT the same.....Osweiller and Glennon didn't have the mentoring/coaching that JG did either. This trade makes these scenarios more Apples to Oranges to me.

Going point by point:

• Well, just because they did it doesn't mean it'll actually be useful enough to justify the cost. Maybe they think it will. Maybe it's just two rookies (HC & GM) grasping at straws after starting their respective tenures 0-8.
  
• Sorry, shouldn't have said rookie. I guess it would be like trading for a QB due to an injury right after week 4 of the preseason. I don't think we'd judge that QB too hard for a bad performance during the first half of the season since they didn't get any prep time. To make it worse, JG is not a rookie but he's not exactly a game tested veteran, either, so he's really being thrown into the fire.
  
• You caught me. "Exponentially" was clearly hyperbole. But if JG does do well somehow then his free agency price is no doubt going to increase over what it would've been if they'd left him on New England's bench. I don't think that's debatable. Like you said, it's a bad situation so if he prevails, expect a contract bigger than Brock's. 
  
• I do think they are aware of the holes. But I'm just saying there are a lot of moving parts here. If he struggles, I really don't think they'll be able to pinpoint why. Too many problems in SF. 
  
• This 5th point of yours ties into the above. Sure, they'll get GAME experience, but people are claiming this is a complex offense that takes a long time to learn. He's got no time to gain chemistry with his teammates. So this is quite possibly the LEAST useful game experience possible, you know? This is an 0-8 team. Everybody he plays will be in mid-season form and he'll basically be in OTA form. So technically, yes, it's game experience, but it's not really the same as game experience if he had an offseason to prepare.
  
• Hey, I agree with this, but like I said in another post, that's their job. Don't waste draft picks just to make your job easier.
  
• Sorry I wasn't clearer - I meant no experience in this system.
  
• Yeah, mid-season form comes from going through the offseason, preseason, and then getting 8 games of regular season action. He's had none of that in this system and certainly hasn't had any regular season action.
  
• Again, people are missing the possibility that they win a few games and take themselves out of contention for 1.01. That is huge.
  
• Don't mean to repeat my last point, but you mention trading the top pick - if JG helps them win a couple games, then they won't have the top pick. 
  

I certainly never said nor meant to imply this was a "franchise crippling" trade. I just think the value gained does not outweigh the cost of an early second and the greatly increased odds of lowering their draft position. Wait 5 months, continue tanking in the meantime, sign him with that cap space, trade down from 1.01 or 1.02 (both SF and CLE have no wins), and profit! OR sign Jimmy AND draft a QB with their 1st. Not an exact parallel, but could be a little Brees/Rivers-esque situation. And I think I've mentioned this several times, but he's an unrestricted FA. This trade does NOT prevent a bidding war for him!

 

[Anarchy99]

Do you know when the FA loss period begin and does it include players that were released for salary reasons like Brooks or Bowman?

Players that are released don't count. They weren't "losses," as a team willingly cut them.

Only players that were on a team's roster and then signed somewhere else count. There is a specific sate in free agency when players signed after that don't count in the formula, but I forget when that date is. I think it is something like May 12.

 

[Scooby1974]

That's why they have interviews and private workouts. I don't mean to imply that this extra time to evaluate him has a value of absolutely zero, but it is being way overstated and is very possibly very close to "negligible." A GM worth his money should be able to do that kind of research about a player that's been in the league for four years without trading a high second round pick for him mid-season. I'm sure Lynch could get in touch with Jimmy's old college coach, his old teammates, maybe even some of his coaches or trainers at New England to find out about his character or work habits. That's the GM's job. You don't trade high draft picks to make your job easier! People are acting like they either trade for him now or that information will be a total mystery. It's simply not true.

He's hitting the market either way. UFA. The other option is to franchise him which would cost more than signing him. Look at recent free agent signings. The franchise tag would be an extreme overpay. So he's hitting the free agent market. They just rented him for 8 games. Now of course they could give him an extension in the meantime, but what do you want to bet that, if they do, it'll be in line or more than those recent free agent signings? This 2nd round pick is not going to save them money. But why are we acting like money is an issue for this team in the first place? They got 99 problems, but cap space ain't one. So even if this 2nd round pick saved them one to two million per year on this contract, was that really worth it? 

• Can JG come in for a two month private workout with the team? No. This isn't a black and white issue that you seem to make it, it is gray. Two months of a holistic view of JG -vs- a few days with a smiley face and no pressure on is NOT CLOSE TO THE SAME type of evaluation that would lead to the same confidence that the guy can help lead a franchise.
  
• Right, so "call his buddies" and ask them what they think -vs- SEE FOR YOURSELF. Apples and Oranges.
  
• You certainly do trade one pick if it allows you a better shot at passing on a QB at #1 or #2 and turning that into either a handful of MORE VALUABLE pics OR the Best OL or DL in the draft.
  
• Again, $$$ is not issue here....it's increasing the odds of SUCCESS an MORE KNOWLEDGE will leverage MORE chance for SUCCESS.
  
• They rent him, get to know him and gain EVERY ADVANTAGE we've been talking about (not an advantage in signing him, but advantage in knowing if they WANT TO)
  
• We AREN'T saying it will save them money. At least I'm not
  

Sorry to pounce on your posts, Ninja....don't take it personally...I'm just trying to clarify some things on the other side.

 

[FF Ninja]

• Agreed, the compensatory pick is a good point. It's something.
  
• I don't think paying more money is an issue for SF, coupon or no coupon, they are going to spend A LOT of money on a QB so I toss the $$$ savings out. If they want him, they HAVE to pay more than anyone else.
  
• If he does play poorly, they will have the major advantage of talking to him, listening, watching practice, watching how he handles the failure or perceived failure, watching how he rallies or doesn't rally his teammates, etc. Again, SF KNOWS they have weak spots that they need to consider. No doubt they consider the same things with Beathard too, but perhaps JG comes in and overcomes SOME of those things and they see him turn some of the tide in 2 months regardless of wins/losses.
  
• SF has no issue with money.
  
• How in the world does gaining TONS MORE KNOWLEDGE make investing money in him MORE Complicated than taking a near blind guess like like the Texans and Bears did?
  
• Agreed that EVERYONE has the same ability to get a potential franchise QB in JG...what this does is it gives the 9ers TONS of KNOWLEDGE and MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE to know if they SHOULD go after him...rather than a blind stab as I mentioned above.
  
• Without this trade, they don't have any advantage in Knowledge for the front office to make further personnel moves.
  
• Again, $$$ is no issue in SF...so I don't think any argument for or against money plays into this JG scenerio at all.
  

• As someone else later mentioned, SF has a ton of cap space and will be signing other players. In the scenario that JG is signed by another team, it is actually likely to be offset by SF's spending, resulting in no compensatory pick for SF. So I take it back, the compensatory pick mention is actually likely irrelevant. 
  
• Yes, this is why I don't get why people are citing a possible (although unlikely) discount as some sort of plus for this trade. It probably won't result in a discount and even if it did, cap space isn't SF's problem.
  
• These things you list here, they could be true, but we're dealing with a lot of "maybes" and some pretty subjective matter.
  
• Agreed
  
• Again, how much useful knowledge will they gain by throwing a guy into the fire who hasn't had time to learn the playbook? Assuming this evaluation period is all that useful is quite an assumption. So I don't think they'll gains "tons more knowledge". I also don't know that I ever said it would be more complicated than the Texans or Bears situation. I only brought those two teams up to say those contracts give us a feel for what JG will likely fetch on the open market.
  
• Again, they're throwing him into a mess with no time to learn the playbook. Not likely to yield "tons more knowledge" or "much more confidence".
  
• But without this trade they do have a really good shot at 1.01 or 1.02 and they've also got a very early 2nd. These things are more useful, IMO, than possibly blowing a chunk of their massive cap space on JG without as much knowledge.
  
• Then why waste a 2nd to try him out? Just spend that money on him and give him a try out next year while a rookie gets to sit and learn.
  

• NE has to be willing to trade JG...it's doubtful they were until now.
  
• I HIGHLY DOUBT JG is going to turn this mess around to the point of losing a top pick EVEN IF HE's AMAZING. There is also NOTHING saying they don't keep JG on ice and "suck for Luck" like the Colts did (ironically may be doing all over again) for a few weeks and toss him in when he's further along. Get all you can out of film study, practice time, conversations, etc.
  

• I realize this. I'm just saying, either do the trade in the offseason when he can learn the system and you can get a good evaluation OR if New England won't do the trade at that time, just wait it out and sign him in the offseason. Throwing him into the fire is not a good evaluation tool. It's a weird thing, though, when teams don't know what to expect. Remember when Carson Palmer got traded mid-season to the Raiders? His stats were in some ways better that season than the next. So I really cannot state enough just how tricky this evaluation is going to be. And they paid a high price to do it!
  
• I am obviously not as confident as you are. It will be tough for Jimmy to succeed under these circumstances, but if he does then they just paid a 2nd round pick to waste a LOT of draft capital. 
  

 

[Scooby1974]

Well, let's not get carried away with giving Kyle credit for all of that. Kubiak took Kyle under his wing just like Kyle's dad took Kubiak under his wing. Kubiak brought Schaub to Houston and made him what he was. Kyle was mostly along for the ride, starting out with Kubiak as like a 27 yo WR coach. And wasn't it Kyle's dad that drafted Cousins? Mike was the HC at the time but maybe you know more about that story. And if we're being fair, let's not forget that it's been less than a year since Kyle lost the super bowl with straight up bone headed play calling. I don't mean to make too much out of it since in-game strategy is different than talent evaluation, but that was really, really bad so he's going to have to earn a reputation of "knowing what he's doing" rather than me just assuming he does based on nothing more than grace.

Back to the trade, I don't get why you say they had to spend a 2nd as "cost of doing business" to acquire him. They've got the cap space to sign him as a free agent in a few months and this trade isn't even likely to net them a noteworthy discount. So it really wasn't cost of doing business. It was a self imposed cost to get him 5 months early.

I don't have a strong opinion on Jimmy. I don't doubt he could be a legitimate franchise QB. It's certainly within the realm of possibilities. I just don't see the point in trading away a high 2nd for him now. It definitely costs you the high second and could easily cost you valuable draft capital if you win a few meaningless games with this mid-season QB upgrade to move you out of contention for 1.01. We've seen the bounty teams have traded to move up just 1-3 spots at the top of the draft. This could be a very costly move, but no one seems to be factoring that in. If Jimmy's your guy, keep losing/tanking, sign him in 5 months with all that cap room, and trade back from 1.01 or 1.02 and build a team around him.

What is the BEST WAY to figure out IF Jimmy is your guy?

Option 1: Wait, pay for him, bring him in and find out.

Option 2: Trade for him, interrogate/watch/torture/ask/listen/practice/watch him play/have him break down 2 months plus of film alongside you/etc......THEN, take ALL THAT INFO and make a VERY informed (although not exactly ideal due to circumstances) decision based on INFO and RELATIONSHIP with JG to EITHER Sign him OR pass and lose out on the decent crapshoot of a #33 pick.

If my job and the franchise is on the line...I take the chance of losing 1 pick for the good of all involved.

 

[FF Ninja]

• Can JG come in for a two month private workout with the team? No. This isn't a black and white issue that you seem to make it, it is gray. Two months of a holistic view of JG -vs- a few days with a smiley face and no pressure on is NOT CLOSE TO THE SAME type of evaluation that would lead to the same confidence that the guy can help lead a franchise.
  
• Right, so "call his buddies" and ask them what they think -vs- SEE FOR YOURSELF. Apples and Oranges.
  
• You certainly do trade one pick if it allows you a better shot at passing on a QB at #1 or #2 and turning that into either a handful of MORE VALUABLE pics OR the Best OL or DL in the draft.
  
• Again, $$$ is not issue here....it's increasing the odds of SUCCESS an MORE KNOWLEDGE will leverage MORE chance for SUCCESS.
  
• They rent him, get to know him and gain EVERY ADVANTAGE we've been talking about (not an advantage in signing him, but advantage in knowing if they WANT TO)
  
• We AREN'T saying it will save them money. At least I'm not
  

Sorry to pounce on your posts, Ninja....don't take it personally...I'm just trying to clarify some things on the other side.

No worries. 

• I don't mean to paint it as black and white. I think I keep saying some of these things have value, but their value is a bit dubious. This will be one of the most unreliable evaluation periods possible. 
  
• No, not "call his buddies". Do proper due diligence that GM's are paid to do.
  
• I felt like SF was always going to make a run at a FA, so it's very possible they were already going to pass at QB in the draft, so this trade didn't really impact that.
  
• Like you said, it's a grey area. I don't feel like this will increase the odds of success a significant amount due to the terrible circumstances. In fact, it is entirely possible this investment skews them to favor JG (makes them feel "pot committed") when they should be seeking another QB (draft or FA). 
  
• See answer #4 (grey area, questionable advantage)
  
• Some people have. That's all I meant. Not trying to put words in your mouth.
  

 

[chinawildman]

Players that are released don't count. They weren't "losses," as a team willingly cut them.

Only players that were on a team's roster and then signed somewhere else count. There is a specific sate in free agency when players signed after that don't count in the formula, but I forget when that date is. I think it is something like May 12.

Thanks for the info. As an aside, what is your perspective of Garoppolo the player (forget the transactional stuff) as a Pats fan?

 

[Scooby1974]

It could - they could spin their wheels trying to figure out if JG is a franchise QB for 1.5-2.5 years, passing on other opportunities (like a QB at the top of this draft). We’ll see. For the proponents of the trade to be right, Lynch and Shanahan are going to have to really get a feel for what kind of QB JG can be over the next couple of months. 

SF could spin their wheels trying to figure that out whether it is JG or not...the same thing would happen if they draft a top QB (none of which am I impressed with so far, but maybe a Wentz comes out of the blue?).

Agreed on the two month plus eval....but rather have that than two days of interviews and NE coaches blowing smoke about how great he is.

 

[FF Ninja]

What is the BEST WAY to figure out IF Jimmy is your guy?

Option 1: Wait, pay for him, bring him in and find out.

Option 2: Trade for him, interrogate/watch/torture/ask/listen/practice/watch him play/have him break down 2 months plus of film alongside you/etc......THEN, take ALL THAT INFO and make a VERY informed (although not exactly ideal due to circumstances) decision based on INFO and RELATIONSHIP with JG to EITHER Sign him OR pass and lose out on the decent crapshoot of a #33 pick.

If my job and the franchise is on the line...I take the chance of losing 1 pick for the good of all involved.

If you've got the cash to burn, why not go with option #1? They aren't hard up for cap space. They're a rebuilding team. Nobody expects them to win the super bowl in 2018. Take a risk on JG as a FA and invest in QBs in the draft when they are BPA. That way you don't feel obligated to reach for a QB in 2018 if you're already planning on giving JG a try. This trade would make more sense if this was a good team without a QB. This team is not a QB away from a 2018 championship. Time is on their side, yet this trade reeked of desperation.

But one more time I'd like to point out that if they play themselves out of the running for 1.01 they've lost much more than the 2.01. It may or may not happen, but they just increased the odds.

 

[efactor]

What is the BEST WAY to figure out IF Jimmy is your guy?

Option 1: Wait, pay for him, bring him in and find out.

Option 2: Trade for him, interrogate/watch/torture/ask/listen/practice/watch him play/have him break down 2 months plus of film alongside you/etc......THEN, take ALL THAT INFO and make a VERY informed (although not exactly ideal due to circumstances) decision based on INFO and RELATIONSHIP with JG to EITHER Sign him OR pass and lose out on the decent crapshoot of a #33 pick.

If my job and the franchise is on the line...I take the chance of losing 1 pick for the good of all involved.

Excellent view of situation

Obviously, a high 2nd is a valuable pick but it’s probably not a make or break for the franchise. Getting the QB can be and I agree that the time spent in the 2nd half of the season will go a long way towards determining if he can be your franchise QB. 

As far as waiting to sign him after the season, no guarantees that either somebody made a financial offer he couldn’t refuse or he just made a decision to go to another franchise. This way, you not only get to examine him, but you get the opportunity to show him what you have to offer towards his growth as a QB, which is pivotal when deciding if you want to go to a team that finished 1-15 the year before. If you can show him that the team is moving in a positive direction, that will change his perception of the franchise as something other than a train wreck. 

Some risk for sure, but seems like a good one to find if this is truly your guy before you make a large, long term investment. 

 

[Buckna]

Eh, seems to me the crux of the matter is a big disagreement over the value of cap space vs the value of a single early 2nd round pick. I would argue that the BEST WAY to see if he is your guy you want to take a chance on in the 49ers case is to save that pick and sign him in the offseason even if there is a "bidding war." The 49ers are projected to have over 115M cap space next year, more than any other team, NO ONE can outbid them. You can do all those evaluation things after you pay him and bring him in and if he doesn't work out, cut his ### and you move on. The 49ers aren't the Texans or Bronco's who can't survive a crippling bad QB contract because of what they are already paying their other stud players, the 49ers literally have money to burn because they have to spend that cap space eventually or they will have to pay it out as a tax.

Now one thing I am interested in which we may never find out, is was there other bidders for JG before the trade deadline? Was Cleveland interested? Hard to believe Cleveland would reportedly pay a 2nd & 3rd for McCarron and not pony up a 2nd for JG?

 

[Anarchy99]

Thanks for the info. As an aside, what is your perspective of Garoppolo the player (forget the transactional stuff) as a Pats fan?

Would have been a Top 10 QB out of the gate if he stayed in NE with McDaniels and BB. Good fit for their system. Possibly a Top 5 QB (depends when that was and who the other 31 QB's would be at that time). The age old argument will be is it the QB or the NE system that has been successful.

Really hard to tell going to another franchise with less talent and a less proven coaching staff. I personally don't think he is a quick fix, trans-formative player like some folks do. There were media people suggesting he would have made the Browns a .500 team THIS YEAR if he had gone there in the off season. There was also talk that he could have taken an average team and gotten them a playoff win. I don't really see that as being realistic.

He did look really good in his limited time last year when Brady was suspended, but he was playing with what turned out to be a Super Bowl winning team and coaching staff around him. That being said, I think he will be below average this year, average the year after, and should be in line to be a plus starter in 2019. The question is, will Shanahan and Jimmy G. get that long to develop and sort things out.

We don't really have much of a feel for how well he will do under pressure, if he can do well in the post season, and how durable he will be. I literally never get a chance to watch SF. Do they have many play makers offensively? It's hard to be a difference maker if you don't have anyone to throw to.

 

[Buckna]

 or he just made a decision to go to another franchise. This way, you not only get to examine him, but you get the opportunity to show him what you have to offer towards his growth as a QB, which is pivotal when deciding if you want to go to a team that finished 1-15 the year before. If you can show him that the team is moving in a positive direction, that will change his perception of the franchise as something other than a train wreck. 

This is one argument I can buy. That Shanahan and Lynch were scared they couldn't sign him in the offseason even though they can outbid anyone. There are plenty of times in the past where players have passed up a little bit more money to go play for a particular team.

 

[mike9289]

Haven't read the whole thread so this may be covered. What if JG refuses to sign with the 49ers? They can franchise tag him, what 2 years like the Redskins are doing with Cousins. If that's the rule, 2 years max with the franchise tag, doesn't that time frame look awfully convenient for the hooded guy? At the end of 2019 Brady retires and the Pats with all the extra cap space, sign JG away for the 49ers assuming he's played well. This trade actually gives the Pats two seasons to see if Jimmy can cut it as the replacement.

 

[Scooby1974]

If you've got the cash to burn, why not go with option #1? They aren't hard up for cap space. They're a rebuilding team. Nobody expects them to win the super bowl in 2018. Take a risk on JG as a FA and invest in QBs in the draft when they are BPA. That way you don't feel obligated to reach for a QB in 2018 if you're already planning on giving JG a try. This trade would make more sense if this was a good team without a QB. This team is not a QB away from a 2018 championship. Time is on their side, yet this trade reeked of desperation.

But one more time I'd like to point out that if they play themselves out of the running for 1.01 they've lost much more than the 2.01. It may or may not happen, but they just increased the odds.

• YES, totally agree! In lieu of continuing to suck badly and trying to turn it around via the draft ONLY, they appear to be trying to do BOTH get a franchise QB AND a top Player at the top of the draft or secure more pics.
  

IF they can get JG and FEEL CONFIDENT about him (using the pic to buy the chance of really getting to know him in all facets of the game) then they sign him and use the top pic/multiple pics to keep rebuilding.

• Agreed again, I truly hope they are able to find out what they need in this short time with JG WHILE CONTINUING to lose. Let's start the next "Suck for ___" campaign and be sure to increased the odds of the ideal. (JG working out great AND the top pick)
  

Good stuff, Ninja.

 

[Scooby1974]

Eh, seems to me the crux of the matter is a big disagreement over the value of cap space vs the value of a single early 2nd round pick. I would argue that the BEST WAY to see if he is your guy you want to take a chance on in the 49ers case is to save that pick and sign him in the offseason even if there is a "bidding war." The 49ers are projected to have over 115M cap space next year, more than any other team, NO ONE can outbid them. You can do all those evaluation things after you pay him and bring him in and if he doesn't work out, cut his ### and you move on. The 49ers aren't the Texans or Bronco's who can't survive a crippling bad QB contract because of what they are already paying their other stud players, the 49ers literally have money to burn because they have to spend that cap space eventually or they will have to pay it out as a tax.

Now one thing I am interested in which we may never find out, is was there other bidders for JG before the trade deadline? Was Cleveland interested? Hard to believe Cleveland would reportedly pay a 2nd & 3rd for McCarron and not pony up a 2nd for JG?

Option 1: sign him to a 80 mill. for 4 years contract in the off-season having very little info on him and be stuck with him after you find out two months in he's a career backup in his brain + use the #33 pick and have a better chance at the #1 but not being too sure he can be your franchise guy.

Option 2: trade the #33-#36, evaluate him holistically (skills, leadership, brains, temperament,etc.) and either cut bait (take a top QB in the draft) or CONFIDENTLY lock him up for 80 mill/4 yrs. and get either A. Stud at the 1-3 pick or B. Trade down for more pics.

That's how I am seeing it...and I still take Option 2 with a plan to make sure my team screws up enough to not win any games for the best shot at #1.

 

[JaxBill]

For everybody balking at the price that the 49ers gave up for Garropolo, consider that another bottom dwelling team just spent a high 2nd round pick on a QB in the draft, yanked him in and out of the lineup multiple times and also tried to complete a deal for a promising  yet unproven backup (for a higher price-tag than the Niners gave up) that was squashed at the last minute for a clerical error.

It may be a very low bar, but the absurd theater of Cleveland's handling of the QB situation, makes the Niners front office look not only reasonable but prescient.

 

[FF Ninja]

Eh, seems to me the crux of the matter is a big disagreement over the value of cap space vs the value of a single early 2nd round pick. I would argue that the BEST WAY to see if he is your guy you want to take a chance on in the 49ers case is to save that pick and sign him in the offseason even if there is a "bidding war." The 49ers are projected to have over 115M cap space next year, more than any other team, NO ONE can outbid them. You can do all those evaluation things after you pay him and bring him in and if he doesn't work out, cut his ### and you move on. The 49ers aren't the Texans or Bronco's who can't survive a crippling bad QB contract because of what they are already paying their other stud players, the 49ers literally have money to burn because they have to spend that cap space eventually or they will have to pay it out as a tax.

Now one thing I am interested in which we may never find out, is was there other bidders for JG before the trade deadline? Was Cleveland interested? Hard to believe Cleveland would reportedly pay a 2nd & 3rd for McCarron and not pony up a 2nd for JG?

There is a major difference between JG and AJ McCarron:

• JG = UFA
  
• McCarron = RFA
  

The Browns could put a 1st round tender on McCarron and keep him for $4M next year. The 49ers would have to use the franchise tag.

 

[ghostguy123]

If both the Browns and 49ers were to go winless who gets the #1?  Is is way to early to be able to come close to predicting that?

 

[FF Ninja]

For everybody balking at the price that the 49ers gave up for Garropolo, consider that another bottom dwelling team just spent a high 2nd round pick on a QB in the draft, yanked him in and out of the lineup multiple times and also tried to complete a deal for a promising  yet unproven backup (for a higher price-tag than the Niners gave up) that was squashed at the last minute for a clerical error.

It may be a very low bar, but the absurd theater of Cleveland's handling of the QB situation, makes the Niners front office look not only reasonable but prescient.

Is Cleveland really a measuring stick? We're basically talking about Dumb & Dumber here. Do we want to argue that Lloyd is smarter than Harry? Like I mentioned above, the contract situation difference makes McCarron and JG quite different acquisitions, but really we don't need to compare SF to one of the most poorly operated franchises in the past decade. Even if McCarron was an unrestricted FA, pointing out that a dumber trade happened won't make this trade less dumb.

 

[FF Ninja]

If both the Browns and 49ers were to go winless who gets the #1?  Is is way to early to be able to come close to predicting that?

The team with the lower strength of schedule (i.e. their opponents compiled fewer wins) is granted the earlier pick in round one