You're kidding me, right? Wasn't even a bad decision?! It's basic Coaching 101. You give your team a chance to win. If the Lions elected to receive the kickoff, like they should have, they would have at least had a chance to win on offense. Sure, Chicago could have been stopped on offense, and Detroit given the chance, but Moronweig didn't even give them that opportunity.
Basic Coaching 102: You have a defense.Basic Coaching 103: Field Position is fluid.
Here's an example. Did you know that if Team A has the ball on their own 1 yardline, then Team B is more likely to make the next score? It's a statistical fact that Team B is far more likely to score next in that situation... even though their defense is on the field. So we've already established that there are certain instances where the defense is more likely to score than the offense. If a coach had a choice between starting overtime with the ball at the 1, or starting overtime on defense and letting the other team have the ball on the 1, he'll choose to defend every single time. Move it out to the 10 yard line, and they'll probably make the same decision.
More numbers. I'm sure we'll all agree that last season, Indy had a PHENOMINAL offense, right? Well, their average starting field position was the 31.24 yard line... and they scored, on average, on 46% of drives. That's with the best offense in the league and an average starting field position of the 33 yard line. Assuming Mornhinweg was convinced he could get a touchback (due to the wind), that would reduce their chances. But this is INDIANAPOLIS. Let's see what the 2002 Chicago Bears did in that regard.
In 2002, the Bears were *HORRIBLE* on offense. They only scored points on 26.8% of their drives (and that was with an average starting position of the 30.77 yard line). It's not at all unreasonable to surmise that, with a starting position at the 20 yard line, Chicago had only a 20% chance to score in ideal circumstances. With the wind, maybe Mornhinweg is calculating that they've only got a 15% chance to score. Suddenly the decision isn't looking quite as bad.
As for your "fun fact." You actually did the research for me. I was going to ask you how many coaches have every elected to kick rather than receive in overtime. You only strengthen my argument. Only three coaches have ever done it. 2-1 or not, it doesn't matter. If it's such a smart coaching decision, then why don't more coaches do so? Because it's ridiculous is why! If the wind is whipping around at 50 mph, then perhaps I can see it. But it wasn't that day. It was swirling around SW at about 4 MPH.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20021124_DET@CHI
How many coaches have ever taken an intentional safety? Does that mean it was a bad decision when Bellichick did it? First off, coaching is a relatively risk-adverse position. Second off, certain coaching moves require the right combination of events to be worthwhile. While only two other coaches have tried taking the wind, look at who they were- Hank Stram and Mike Shanahan. Both are two of the greatest football minds the game has seen. Both are widely respected as innovators, and incredibly successful. It's not like we're talking about Pete Carroll and Rich Kotite here.
Sure, the wind could have been gusting, as it does fairly often in Chicago. But it still doesn't matter. You give your team the chance to win on the first try. Besides, if going with the wind was such a "smart move," then I guess Paul Edinger's 40 yard field goal going AGAINST the wind was just lucky, right? A 40 yarder isn't exactly a chip shot, especially going AGAINST the wind......
Let's play a hypothetical game. Let's say I line up a kicker to make an attempt that he only has a 1-in-a-million shot at making. Let's say we're going to make a bet on whether he makes it or not. OBVIOUSLY you're going to bet that he misses it. If he then makes it, does that mean you were stupid for betting against him? Did that make it a bad decision?The outcome of an event does not change whether the decision was a good one or not. If Edinger missed that 40 yarder (which is actually a pretty short figgie, as far as figgies go), then we'd all be talking about how brilliant Morninwheg was, because the wind was totally responsible for Edinger missing, blah blah blah.
As for Shannahan... perhaps he got lucky with that move. Has he done it since? I hardly believe that this decision was a major reason for him being called a "Mastermind." Perhaps it was getting things together and putting together a championship-caliber team that won two straight Super Bowls? Perhaps setting up a running back factory in Denver for YEARS now...?
Maybe Shanny got lucky. Maybe Mornhinweg got unlucky. Maybe.Also, as a very avid Denver fan (obviously), I can tell you that this is ABSOLUTELY one of the primary reasons he earned the "Mastermind" nickname. It wasn't for his ability to evaluate talent or assemble good rosters. It wasn't for winning SBs (he earned the nickname before the SB wins). It certainly wasn't for setting up an RB factory (he earned the nickname back when Terrell Davis was the only RB he'd ever used). Mike Shanahan earned the mastermind nickname for making very unconventional choices (like taking the wind) and succeeding with them.
**EDIT** Meant to add that this very game was the death knell for Moronweig. He was already on thin ice in Detroit up to that point, but this game brought about a deep, deep hatred for Moronweig, where fans wanted his HEAD. Him, and Matt Millen, actually. Did Moronweig last past 2002? I think not, and this very game was a perfect example of what a s***** head coach he was.
I agree that this was the death knell for Mornhinweg. Doesn't mean it was a bad decision.Let's compare it to going for it on 4th down. If a coach goes for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with 30 seconds left when down by 3 and makes it, then he's a hero. If he doesn't make it, then he's fired. Whether he makes it or not doesn't change whether it was a good decision or a bad decision, though.