Chaka
Footballguy
Missed this one.
Definitely Wentz.
We all believe Wilson will get things figured out but I am not banking on that happening this week. And he's not even a better runner than Lawrence at this point.
Lawrence>Wilson
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Week 03 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Definitely Wentz.
We all believe Wilson will get things figured out but I am not banking on that happening this week. And he's not even a better runner than Lawrence at this point.
Lawrence>Wilson
Chaka
Footballguy
Defenses are the most random position to project, so let's do it anyway.
Dallas is simply the better defense ATM and Arizona should be a more difficult offense to defend.
Dallas>Rams and it really isn't that close for me.
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
You still going this way HSG?I’m benching Hock for Logan Thomas.
Thomas > Hockenson?
Apologies if this has been answered and I missed it.... I'm leaning this way as well. Hock hasn't looked good so far when I've seen him. Thomas seems like he may be ascending still in his return from the torn ACL...
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Trying to decide this week's QB starter. 6 point Passing TD, otherwise standard QB scoring.
Tua Tagovailoa - home vs Bills (Bills played Monday night)
Derek Carr - at Titans (Titans played Monday night)
Normally the Bills D would make Tua a sit, even after last week's blowup. BUT, the Bills D is mangled this week. The Bills will be starting 2 rookie corners against Hill and Waddle.
Players that are OUT
CB Tre White - still out on PUP
CB Dane Jackson - Out due to horrific neck injury last week, (although he is up and walking around and Bills have not placed him on IR, so he should return this season)
S Micah Hyde - on IR due to his own neck injury, expected to be season ending - huge loss to the D
DT Ed Oliver - Out due to Ankle
DT Jordan Phillips - Out due to Hamstring
Players that are Questionable
S Jordan Poyer - Questionable due to foot injury. LP on Wed, DNP on Thu, LP on Friday - probably a game time decision
DT Tim Settle - Questionable due to Calf, LP all 3 days this week
BUT, the Dolphins put their starting RT on IR last week, and their LT Terron Armstead has a Toe injury and DNP all week, will be a game time decision. He played with the same injury last week so I expect him to play.
So I think for Tua, it comes down to can he get the ball out quick enough before the Bills pass rush gets there. Both Hill and Waddle have the speed to score on short slants due to YAC, but I don't expect deep shots to work against Bills Cover 2 zone, especially if they never blitz (they didn't blitz once against Stafford and got a bunch of sacks).
Titans secondary got roasted by Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams should be able to do the same thing. Hunter Renfrow is out due to concussion, so one less weapon for Carr (although the Bills didn't seem to mind missing Gabe Davis against the same Titans secondary). RB Josh Jacobs is also highly questionable with an illness, and did not travel with the team to Tennessee.
Weather report - both games are 1 PM start
Miami - 88F, Humid and Partly Cloudy - visiting team sits on the sunny side of the field
Nashville - 78F Partly Cloudy
Tua Tagovailoa - home vs Bills (Bills played Monday night)
Derek Carr - at Titans (Titans played Monday night)
Normally the Bills D would make Tua a sit, even after last week's blowup. BUT, the Bills D is mangled this week. The Bills will be starting 2 rookie corners against Hill and Waddle.
Players that are OUT
CB Tre White - still out on PUP
CB Dane Jackson - Out due to horrific neck injury last week, (although he is up and walking around and Bills have not placed him on IR, so he should return this season)
S Micah Hyde - on IR due to his own neck injury, expected to be season ending - huge loss to the D
DT Ed Oliver - Out due to Ankle
DT Jordan Phillips - Out due to Hamstring
Players that are Questionable
S Jordan Poyer - Questionable due to foot injury. LP on Wed, DNP on Thu, LP on Friday - probably a game time decision
DT Tim Settle - Questionable due to Calf, LP all 3 days this week
BUT, the Dolphins put their starting RT on IR last week, and their LT Terron Armstead has a Toe injury and DNP all week, will be a game time decision. He played with the same injury last week so I expect him to play.
So I think for Tua, it comes down to can he get the ball out quick enough before the Bills pass rush gets there. Both Hill and Waddle have the speed to score on short slants due to YAC, but I don't expect deep shots to work against Bills Cover 2 zone, especially if they never blitz (they didn't blitz once against Stafford and got a bunch of sacks).
Titans secondary got roasted by Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams should be able to do the same thing. Hunter Renfrow is out due to concussion, so one less weapon for Carr (although the Bills didn't seem to mind missing Gabe Davis against the same Titans secondary). RB Josh Jacobs is also highly questionable with an illness, and did not travel with the team to Tennessee.
Weather report - both games are 1 PM start
Miami - 88F, Humid and Partly Cloudy - visiting team sits on the sunny side of the field
Nashville - 78F Partly Cloudy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am. Hock is getting the targets, but nothing deep, and not much in the RZ.You still going this way HSG?I’m benching Hock for Logan Thomas.
Thomas > Hockenson?
Apologies if this has been answered and I missed it.... I'm leaning this way as well. Hock hasn't looked good so far when I've seen him. Thomas seems like he may be ascending still in his return from the torn ACL...
It’s early, and I’m not panicked, but PHI is also a bit of a funnel to the TE due to their exceptional secondary, and clearly Wentz looks for Thomas in all situations.
And bonus, Hock is dealing with an injury.
Feels like a safer floor.
Chaka
Footballguy
This feels like a clear dart throw.
Thomas is on the field 68% of the time and with 11 targets is within one target of four other Commadore receivers. Who knows which guy will see the ball in Washington week-in-week out.
Hock is on the field 90% of the time and has 14 targets, which is second on the team (Chark 12). I think @BobbyLayne would have a better handle on this but I believe Hock's utilization may be tied to the health of the offensive line but he had 7 targets in each game (61 snaps week 1, 54 snaps week 2) so that may not hold water.
Either way I like for opportunity upside.
Hock>Thomas
Chaka
Footballguy
Tua>Carr and I'm not even thinking about it. I am a Raider fan and truly crestfallen after last week's epic collapse. They need to prove something, anything on the field before I will trust anyone outside of Adams & Waller.
One thing missing from your weather report in Miami is that the humidity is so high that it feels like 104 degrees. If that holds I think it could be an equalizer and give the Dolphins a fighting chance to pull out the win.
Tua has similar downside to Carr and, clearly far more upside. Personally I ride the wave until it crashes.
Tua>Carr
18to44
Footballguy
Full PPR - Waddle and Sutton are my starting wideouts and I'm looking for two flex WRs:
Hollywood Brown ARI vs LAR
Christian Kirk JAX @ LAC
Curtis Samuel WAS vs PHI
Brown is facing a Rams secondary that looks to have 3 CB and a S out this week. He hasn't quite lived up to my expections (drafted in the 5th round) but my WR bench has picked up the slack. Is this his week to shine?
Kirk is going up against a great secondary and if Lawrence's OL can't protect him, Kirk may end up being a non-factor. On the flip side, he has been the go-to guy in this offense.
Difficult to bench Samuel as he's averaging 10 targets and a TD so far. The coaching staff is getting him involved in creative ways. I can't see them going away from what's been working so don't anticipate his targets to significantly drop off.
While writing this up, I may have just talked myself into Brown and Samuel.
Thoughts?
Hollywood Brown ARI vs LAR
Christian Kirk JAX @ LAC
Curtis Samuel WAS vs PHI
Brown is facing a Rams secondary that looks to have 3 CB and a S out this week. He hasn't quite lived up to my expections (drafted in the 5th round) but my WR bench has picked up the slack. Is this his week to shine?
Kirk is going up against a great secondary and if Lawrence's OL can't protect him, Kirk may end up being a non-factor. On the flip side, he has been the go-to guy in this offense.
Difficult to bench Samuel as he's averaging 10 targets and a TD so far. The coaching staff is getting him involved in creative ways. I can't see them going away from what's been working so don't anticipate his targets to significantly drop off.
While writing this up, I may have just talked myself into Brown and Samuel.
Thoughts?
Full PPR
If Herbert doesn't play what do people think of Mike Williams? I am thinking of benching him for one of my RBs in the flex spot. Originally I had Kirk in as a flex but I moved him into the starting lineup in case Herbert doesn't play
If I don't start Mike Williams I can play:
Aiyuk @ Den
Pollard @ NYG
Wilson @ Den
Etienne @ LAC
If Herbert doesn't play what do people think of Mike Williams? I am thinking of benching him for one of my RBs in the flex spot. Originally I had Kirk in as a flex but I moved him into the starting lineup in case Herbert doesn't play
If I don't start Mike Williams I can play:
Aiyuk @ Den
Pollard @ NYG
Wilson @ Den
Etienne @ LAC
Wrigley
Footballguy
Tough call but I would have a hard time benching Kirk. You have 3 good options for flex. Maybe this is the week for Brown to "shine" so I might go with him and Kirk if it were my team but i understand not wanting to bench Samuel.
Chaka
Footballguy
You have better options than Brown ATM, why risk it?
Kirk looks legit and he's running all kinds of routes, he's the clear #1, has been incredibly efficient and clutch in both games. He seems like a great mix of high ceiling and high floor. Tough matchup for sure but you need to get the opportunities first, worry about the matchup second.
There is legitimate concern that Samuel is a mirage but I'm willing to roll the dice having seen the creative ways the Commodores are trying to get him the ball. It's been a very high volume passing offense and I think they are using the short passing game in lieu of trying to grind with Antonio Gibson. Things may change when Robinson gets back but that's not a tomorrow problem. Also a tough matchup but I don't imagine Slay will be on Samuel so there should be opportunities for him.
Kirk>Samuel>Brown
Chaka
Footballguy
Great options across the board. I eliminate Etienne because the other guys should have more locked in opportunities.
If any one player benefitted from the loss of Trey Lance it's Aiyuk. I don't think it's a surprise or a coincidence that Aiyuk got 8 targets last week after only 3 in week one. Garoppolo likes him and tries to find him. It's probably not as bad of a matchup as it may appear on paper. The Bronco D may statistically may have been helped by playing two average to below average offenses.
I had this to say about Pollard earlier in this thread
I definitely like Pollard but he does come with a relatively low floor.
If you have one player who is most locked into his opportunity this week it's Jeff Wilson. Shanahan will feed him and he is a good bet to get close to 20 opportunities. The Denver defense may or not be good but they definitely have not looked great at any point.
You can make a strong argument for going with any of these guys but IMO I like
Wilson>Pollard>Aiyuk
Chaka
Footballguy
Are you asking? I think in this scenario I roll the dice on the upside of Etienne over the uncertainty of Dobbins and the possibility that the Patriots turn pass happy against the Ravens like the Dolphins and Jets had to.
Etienne>Stevenson>Dobbins
The General
Footballguy
Dameon Pierce or Brandin Cooks .5 PPR
Wrigley
Footballguy
Nah, Tanner asked who else I had that was flex eligible.
pretty thin on the wire too
But, I appreciate your effort Chaka
I like Pierce although both might be great options. It looks like the Bears best linebacker (Roquan Smith) is going to be out as well as his replacement. There best CB is probably going to miss the game as well. They were already thin on D and bad against the run which is why I would go with Pierce.
OrganizedChaos
Footballguy
Somewhat similar to themeistersinger I have a Tua related question. Tua against the depleted Bills secondary or Burrow against the Jets. Even with the Bills injuries how much time will Tua have to throw against that front seven? Bills have only given up two TDs total so far. Miami will at least have to throw (or try) to stay in the game so should be a ton of passing attempts.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well @Tanner9919 is very high on Pierce this week citing the Packers big game on the ground last week against Chicago. It isn't a bad call either. Maybe this is Pierce's coming out party, I just wish I had more to go on before banking on that outcome. Still, no one would fault you for going with Pierce.
I am always pretty high on Cooks, dude always gets volume so he has a safe floor. I would like him more in a full PPR but even at 0.5 he is a nice play. I will say that Cooks's upside is probably a little lower than Pierce but I think his floor is a little higher as well. In 37 games with the Texans he has TDs in 9 and only 2 games with multiple TDs. He has seven games over 100 yards but 11 games with 7 or more receptions (4 more with 6 receptions).
Tough call but I would opt for stability in week 3 unless you are already desperate.
Cooks>Pierce
Chaka
Footballguy
I li
But, much as I like Tua I don't like him over Burrow with his weapons against that defense.
Burrow>Tua
I like Tua this week. I have recommended him over Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr & Tom Brady. He is probably my big swing that will help or hurt the most teams this week. Last week it was Pollard but I was down on him, it didn't turn out well.
But, much as I like Tua I don't like him over Burrow with his weapons against that defense.
Burrow>Tua
themeistersinger
Footballguy
I hear you about the heat. I'm a Bills fan an I have many (unahppy) memories of players sitting out most of the second half with the fans pointed straight at them and a blank look on their faces. But that also makes me feel icky about starting a fish against my Bills.
But also, this is business.
OrganizedChaos
Footballguy
Thanks. I have been kind of leaning that way myself but realize Tua might go off (as you say could be a big swing either way). 3 of the 4 FBG experts in League Dominator have Burrow over Tua as well.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I worry about Terry’s usage and Darius Slay. I would roll with Mr. Robinson personally.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
I don't know the extent of this ankle injury to Davis in Buffalo, so I'm trying to decide if he starts in standard flex, or I go with G. Wilson against the Bengals. My other options are DJ Moore and Jeudy, but they'll stay on the bench.
I'm thinking he will play, but not at full capacity, and might be more of a decoy that won't be able to stretch the field as he usually does.
I'm thinking he will play, but not at full capacity, and might be more of a decoy that won't be able to stretch the field as he usually does.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
.50 ppr
Need 2 of these 4:
Damien Pierce @CHI
Brandon Cooks @CHI
Garrett Wilson v CIN
Michael Carter v CIN
I’ve got Wilson and Pierce Slated to go right now .. but I’m wavering.
Need 2 of these 4:
Damien Pierce @CHI
Brandon Cooks @CHI
Garrett Wilson v CIN
Michael Carter v CIN
I’ve got Wilson and Pierce Slated to go right now .. but I’m wavering.
Chaka
Footballguy
I may be overthinking this one. McLaurin is on the field a ton but he's bunched up with Gibson, McKissik, Dotson & Thomas with between 10-12 targets each (Samuel has 20). I expect a correction but will it happen this week with Darius Slay covering him at least occasionally?
I also expect a correction in Jacksonville with Etienne leading the backfield at least a couple times this season. This week may be an opportunity with Herbert and Allen both more than a little banged up. If the Charger offense struggles the Jags could steal this game. But even if Etienne's role increases I still see nothing worse than a 50:50 split.
J.Robinson>McLaurin
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Now Poyer is also OUT
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh, I've been there on this one. What sucks the most is the lack of clarity. Maybe he's fine, maybe he's not, we'll never know. This is a major test of your risk tolerance.
I haven't been following Davis's injury status so I won't pretend to have inside scoop driving my thinking. But I think I may ride Wilson on this one. He clearly has a high ceiling, he's getting a ton of looks, no one throws more than the Jets (who have more than a puncher's chance of pulling out the W), the D looks terrible and they are facing a strong offense.
The weather in Miami is supposed to be incredibly humid, 84 degrees but feels like 104. The Bills are great but that's rough on anyone. And Gabe Davis may be awesome but, so far he hasn't been a high volume guy in his career, so you have to rely on continues efficiency. A decent gamble but another layer of risk for him this week, particularly if he isn't 100%
Wilson>G.Davis
Chaka
Footballguy
You're always going to waiver when you have a decision like this. I can make an argument in favor of and against each of these guys, I would then conclude my post by saying to go with your gut.
I like your choices and won't talk you out of them.
Chaka
Footballguy
Because it's full PPR I'm inclined to ride Higbee and hope it's not a mirage. He's getting mad looks and I am starting to think he is the real #2 target on this team. Maybe not but how can you turn down 10 targets/game?
I love the Bills offense and Singletary is definitely the lead back but it's such a low volume position it's always a coin toss if he'll have a good game (more like an 8 sided die roll).
Henderson is in a full blown timeshare AFAIK and very TD dependent.
Woods may eventually do something, I guess but why bank on him?
Higbee>Henderson>Singletary>>Woods
Chaka
Footballguy
themeistersinger
Footballguy
So you're saying you prefer Tua over Carr?
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm honestly not sure what a guillotine league is.Who do you like as the last flex starter in a PPR guillotine league?
Was in bottom third last week so need some points…
R Gage vs GB
R Doubs @ TB
B Perriman vs GB
R James vs DAL
M Hollins @ TEN (Renfrow out)
CAN ANYONE HELP WITH @Lehigh98 's question?
Last edited:
Chaka
Footballguy
No. I'm saying I prefer Carr less than Tua.
Skipdog77
Footballguy
12 team PPR. 0-2 after having 4th most pts in the league through 2 weeks, but giving up the most PA by far. Need a win to right the ship.
QB - Stafford or Tua against a depleted Bills D? Mind says Stafford, but...
WR2 - Curtis Samuel or Tee Higgins
Have J. Taylor as RB1, J. Williams as my Flex, and Kelce as TE.
QB - Stafford or Tua against a depleted Bills D? Mind says Stafford, but...
WR2 - Curtis Samuel or Tee Higgins
Have J. Taylor as RB1, J. Williams as my Flex, and Kelce as TE.
philly the last couple years tends not to give up big plays. This could just end up being a beat down by Philly and a Wentz come back down to Earth week.If Herbert is out this should be a closer game so the game script would be there for Robinson. I should probably play a little Terry in DFS so I don’t feel bad if he goes off.
I currently have Robinson in. He does need to score or it could be an empty stat line.
Probably the Bengals. They have a good match up. The Bills are beat up and don’t have the best match up.
Those are all close. I feel like Stafford and Samuel would be the floor plays and Tua and Higgins the potential ceiling plays. I just play my best players in spots like this so I’d go Stafford and Higgins. I feel like this is gonna be a get right game for Burrow. I suppose it depends on your match up It could go either way.
Chaka
Footballguy
Unless you are in a very unique league format, you can't control points. Get it out of your head and don't let it cloud your judgement.
Stafford over Tua is fine. He probably has a safer floor and a decent ceiling (3TDs & 350 yards or so). The Arizona D is probably not the team we saw in the second half last week and this may turn into a high scoring game.
Weather in Miami looks like 87 degrees ATM with 65-70% humidity. Feels like 101 on the field. Weather reports are highly speculative (anyone in Miami ATM @Ministry of Pain ?) as many of learned the hard way last Thurs but if those reports are correct it's going to be brutal. I still like Tua to perform but he has more stacked against him relative to Stafford.
Stafford>Tua
Samuel v Tee is also a coin flip. The Bengals look a mess ATM and the Jets give up points in bunches. They're surprisingly not terrible against the pass but that may be because they ayed Cleveland. The Bengals have been passing a ton but have also been terribly inefficient at it. But they have to right the ship, right?
OTOH I love what Samuel is doing and how much volume is coming out of Washington but it does feel like a touch matchup and we all wonder if Samuel may be a mirage.
Yeah, this is a real go with your gut situation.
My W.A.G. is
Samuel>Tee but it's very close
Chaka
Footballguy
Buffalo is in a tough situation for sure but that Jets offense, schizophrenic as it is, looks pretty darn good. One interception and 0 fumbles lost. They don't rush often (37 attempts, 30th) but they rush well, averaging 4.8 YPC (8th). If they can keep it a little close against the Bengals, who look very ugly so far this season it's going to be tough to hit your rush/pass bonuses.
The weather in Miami may (MAY) be brutal (link) but I'm not fading all Bills and Miami still needs to play in that heat/humidity too. No Hyde, no Poyer but it's still the Bills and Miami isn't really a running team.
The Bengals could absolutely outperform the Bills but this feels like overthinking a little.
Bills>Bengals
Chaka
Footballguy
No. Tua has as high of a ceiling as anyone. Heck, he may finish top 5 this season but Hurts is one of those guys who has a legit chance to finish as the #1 scoring QB in magic football. Plus the Washington defense has been a sieve so far this season (27th in yards overall, 21st in passing yards, 28th in rushing yards, 29th in scoring).
Hurts>Tua
Chaka
Footballguy
I think Etienne will lead the backfield in a few games, at least, but I still see this as Javonte/Melvin 2021 as a worst case for Robinson. He will get touches, have a few targets and put up some yardage so I don't think he's entirely TD dependent. McLaurin has been getting 6 targets/game so he's every bit as TD dependent IMO.
McLaurin still is a proven commodity so if you honestly feel you should flip-flop, I won't talk you out of it. He's a very good player.
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