FairWarning
Footballguy
NO, but Pitt is viable also
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Week 03 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
FairWarning
Footballguy
Diontae is getting looks, just need one in the EZ. Start him.
-jb-
Footballguy
Gage I guess
Hollywood
Kamara/Chase/Wilson
Den
NO
DJM
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
PPR league: Hunt tonight vs Pitt or GWilson vs Cinci? I'm leaning Hunt, but as an underdog, I'm wondering if I should go with Wilson's higher ceiling
greedygoat
Footballguy
Currently 0-2 and need a win real badly. Lost Trey Lance last week and now debating benching Brady as he hasn't done much of anything and is without his top 2 WR's. I would have to drop either Josh Palmer or KJ Osborn for one of the following QB's:
Flacco vs. Cincy
Mayfield vs. NO
Jones vs. Chicago
Mariota @ Seattle
Fields vs. Houston
Mills @ Chicago
*Note - play in a distance scoring league which gives an extra point for every 10 yards of the TD. Ex. a 50 yard TD pass is worth 8 points (4 for the TD and 5 for the 50 yards). I know, strange scoring system but it's been the same for 27 years.
Thanks in advance!
Flacco vs. Cincy
Mayfield vs. NO
Jones vs. Chicago
Mariota @ Seattle
Fields vs. Houston
Mills @ Chicago
*Note - play in a distance scoring league which gives an extra point for every 10 yards of the TD. Ex. a 50 yard TD pass is worth 8 points (4 for the TD and 5 for the 50 yards). I know, strange scoring system but it's been the same for 27 years.
Thanks in advance!
-jb-
Footballguy
I may be in the minority here, but I think I would go Mariota. Close second would be Flacco, I guess.
Mayfield will get dominated by NO D
Jones will Jones
Houston may actually be better on D than we give them credit for, and CHI looks horrendous
Mills has a pretty wide variance of what could happen
Drop KJO.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
if Allen is out that answers your Q.
If Allen plays it’s Allen/Cooks, just like ya drafted em in the first 4 rounds.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, tough calls here.
If Julio and Godwin are out (both missed practice Wed & Thu) I think Gage probably makes the most sense so monitor that situation. Good news on the Bucs front is Donovan Smith is back at practice so I expect Brady to be a little cleaner in the pocket.
Predicting DJ & Robby Anderson this season is probably going to be a whack-a-mole situation. You'll probably be right 50% of the time. They are virtually identical in snaps, targets and receptions but Anderson has that big play under his belt in week one. But Anderson is definitely the high ceiling guy on this list and there really are only two non-McCaffrey receiving options in Carolina. Out of all your options Anderson is probably the best mix of ceiling/floor.
Outside of Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones is on the field more than any other Jaguar pass catcher. Unfortunately he is fourth in targets and fourth in receptions. Personally I think we saw peek Marvin Jones a couple years ago. His MO has always been explosive games followed by loooooong fallow periods, I personally think he is a roster churn player at this point. But he will have a big game or three still this season but good luck guessing when that will happen.
Jamaal Williams is certainly getting a good amount of touches. But he's actually not on the field a ton and he isn't doing much with his opportunities. Banking on him is hoping for a short yardage TD. The question is if 32 yards and a score is worth your risk?
Melvin saw a lot less snaps and opportunities last week, falling closer to the 40% share a lot of people envisioned coming into this season. I was not one of those people and still see a 45% share as a legitimate expectation. But, last week in a close game Javonte was the clear favored option and I don't see this game against San Francisco being anything other than close. Add in what appears to be a deeply inept coaching staff and I have to be bearish on Melvin's prospects.
Hines is a fine low ceiling, highish floor guy. He's good for maybe 5-6 targets per game and about 4-5 receptions for 40-60 yards. Expecting any more from him is a bit of magical thinking. He is going to need a big play or a Taylor injury to become anything resembling a relevant fantasy option. Maybe this week against KC they will be passing more, but I wouldn't bank on that increasing Hines's share. It hasn't happened yet either in a close game week one or a blowout week 2 so I don't see how we could reasonably expect it to happen now. If you want floor, he's your guy.
Anderson>Gage>>>everyone else
I could see flip flopping Gage & Anderson if Julio and Godwin are out but it's still very close.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Even though the wind will be howling in CLE, I would still go with Diontae. DJ Moore is not getting a lot of targets right now and Lattimore will be covering him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oof
Tempted to say Henderson, but Akers was a lot more involved.
I think AJD is in a bad spot this week, but given the two RBBC, go with the big back who gets GL touches in AJD.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like Moore here.
fightingillini
Footballguy
PPR, at TE
Kittle at DEN or Higbee at AZ?
Kittle at DEN or Higbee at AZ?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The best defense listed is NOS. Roll with them. Best chance to get sacks, Ints, etc.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If Kittle starts you’re starting him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hollywood seems like the easy call.
But if Allen is out, I like Palmer.
Kamara
wilson
ETN
Assuming it’s PPR & chargers are 7th against the run. Robinson’s getting like 2 YPC, and I expect Jags to have to open tbh gs up to compete.
Neither of these are good options. I’d drop Baltimore for a streamer with a good matchup.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I love Hines in what should be a favorable game script playing from behind.
Neal Cassady
Footballguy
I admittedly don’t have Kittle anywhere and have no idea of his health, but assuming he’s good to go, I’d play him. Denver gave up 100 and 2 TD’s to TE’s in week 1, but played better week 2 against the Texans. Arizona hasn’t faired any better through 2 weeks, but they did go against Kelce and Waller. Still, I’d lean Kittle, if he’s full strength. Just think he’s a bigger part of their passing game. Plus, Alex Singleton can’t cover anyone.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think you can really make a decision on Palmer until we know both Keenan and Herbert's status. If both are playing I fade Palmer a little bit. Even if Keenan doesn't sit, I worry about the nature of Herbert's injury although we definitely should not overthink that because he is simply too talented and with a pain killer he should be okay-ish.
The Rams are only average against the pass and I think they will put up enough points to keep the ball in Kyler's hands. That bodes well for Brown who, despite outcomes that are justifiably considered mediocre so far this season has had 6 & 11 targets this season with a score. Realistically I think he is the smart play and the safe play. Decent floor and high ceiling.
Marquise>Palmer
If he plays Kamara is an auto-start but you know that.
I think you have to go with Wilson too because he will get the guaranteed volume. That is how Shanahan has always operated and that is how Shanahan will continue to operate.
Those two are the easy ones. For the third options I actually think Etienne is the clear choice.
I don't know how anyone can rely on Edmonds when no one is sure where he and Mostert are going to fit into the game plan any given week. And, while I don't know it for a fact but I know it's true, the Dolphins are not going to win by running against the Bills. No goal line love either IMO so you hope for a lot of receptions and him breaking off a longer TD. Pass.
Herbert seems to be talented but I don't know that he has a defined role in Chicago. Lots of people suggest Montgomery is pedestrian and Herbert will take over but that just isn't what the coaching staff is seeing, judging by snap counts and usage stats. This is Monty's team by a wide margin. Herbert hasn't become the receiving back yet and he is barely spelling Montgomery. It's tough to tell because it's only week 3 so we can't bank on the lack of usage. In addition the Texans represent an opportunity for the Bears to grab a win they should be able to handle. So maybe Herbert gets some love, but I'm not confident in that yet.
ETN is the #2 back in Jacksonville and I think that has a lot of people scratching their heads. Personally the bigger surprise is Robinson's recovery from his Achilles last season. But there is little question that the Jags see Robinson as back and healthy enough to carry the load. The good news, relatively speaking, is he has had 8 & 12 opportunities his first two games and has been on the field 44% of the time. I think better days are ahead for him, not sure they start this week but it's possible. He's a start in your lineup not because he's great but because your other options seem worse.
Kamara>Wilson>ETN>Herbert>>Edmonds
For your defense...honestly it's a coin flip. I think I go with Denver but Baltimore also makes a ton of sense.
Den<>Bal
Chaka
Footballguy
Unless it is a truly elite defense (and I think the Bills are the only one that qualifies ATM) I am very hesitant on picking defenses, they are just so unpredictable.
Now it looks like there will be sustained 20mph winds going in Cleveland tonight so that means more errant passes that guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick can house. But that's a tough gamble and you are very unlikely to get any rushing bonuses against the Browns.
I like the New Orleans defense better than any of your others. Good talent, good scheme in a winnable game. But Carolina may not be a great offense but they are a good enough offense to take away any yardage and scoring bonuses.
KC is the big play option. The Colts will have to play frantic football to even hope to pace the Chiefs and Ryan is looking more than a little lost so this may be your best option.
I'm not playing the Houston defense even with free money.
Wild ### guess but
KC>NO>PIT
Chaka
Footballguy
Seeing reports of 20mph sustained winds in Cleveland tonight. Not sure how that translates down on the field but I wouldn't risk it.
DJ>Dionte
Chaka
Footballguy
Wind in Cleveland may (MAY) shift the offense a little more to the running game.
Hunt is a big time player and getting 15 opportunities per game behind a very good offensive line. The defense will likely be stacked against him but even so he is a fine option.
Wilson is also a fine option, at least as long as Flacco is slinging it 50 times per game. I have no reason to believe the Jets are going to change their offensive philosophy this week so:
Wilson>Hunt
Chaka
Footballguy
@zeke2222 @Weebs210
Looks like sustained 20mph winds in Cleveland tonight. If I recommended Cooper, you may want to check who I put just behind him and start that guy.
zeke I think your options was DJ and I definitely would roll that way in light of the wind.
Weebs I think you had Singletary and Dotson as other options. I don't love those but I could see either as a sub for Cooper.
Looks like sustained 20mph winds in Cleveland tonight. If I recommended Cooper, you may want to check who I put just behind him and start that guy.
zeke I think your options was DJ and I definitely would roll that way in light of the wind.
Weebs I think you had Singletary and Dotson as other options. I don't love those but I could see either as a sub for Cooper.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think my man love for Dillon is justified. I play in only one league (12 team, redraft, super flex, PPR) and have Henderson but not Dillon. I would love Henderson to be the guy in Los Angeles but the reality is he appears to be in a full blown time share. Henderson dominated snaps and touches in week one and I was ecstatic because I thought it was because Akers was worse off from the Achilles than the Rams let on. But it appears to have been an issue with practice habits because in week 2 Akers was in on 43% of the snaps to 56% for Henderson. What's worse is Akers dominated the opportunities 18-10. Henderson didn't even get a target. Now, he salvaged his day with a TD but that is tough to bank on. I think Arizona is vulnerable to the run and I think the Rams will be in scoring position plenty, the question is how much usage is Henderson going to get this week and ATM his floor is low and I cannot ignore it.
Dillon has a brutal matchup. Personally I think defenses are going to key on the Packer backfield as much as they are able until the Packer receiving corps figures things out. However with Aaron Rodgers under center there is only so much resource you can dedicate to stopping the run. Dillon is on the field 54% of the time (Jones 60%) and has received 16 & 21 opportunities over the first two weeks. I know Tampa Bay represents a huge challenge and this looks like it could be a low scoring game similar to last week against the Saints, but Dillon will get used and opportunity is King.
Personally because of locked in opportunity I go with:
Dillon>Henderson
But I can completely see pulling the trigger on the game that will probably yield more yardage, plays and scores overall. No fault in making that choice.
Chaka
Footballguy
For one week drop either, probably KJ, and grab..
Do you mean Mac Jones v Baltimore?
Either way I think you have to go with Flacco. None of the options are great and the Jets have thrown the ball 59 & 44 times per game. Flacco is the #9 scoring QB in my league and I don't see the Jets changing up their offense while he is under center.
Mac Jones looked good last week and may be worth a shot but I'm not sold that is any kind of norm. To be fair Baltimore has been terrible against the pass the first two weeks this season, so who knows?
Mayfield is the safest option but I am not certain what his ceiling is and it is a tough matchup.
Flacco>Mayfield>Jones>the rest
Chaka
Footballguy
Higbee and it isn't close ATM. Who knows how injured Kittle still is and Higbee is getting mad looks in a game that should yield a lot of scoring opportunities for the Rams. Ride the wave while it's cresting.
Higbee>Kittle
greedygoat
Footballguy
Awesome, thanks for the detailed response @Chaka . I was leaning Mariota at first but went with Flacco for the simple reason you mentioned. He is leading the league in attempts (14 more than the 2nd place QB) after two weeks. Also, he has 3 WR's who could take it to the house at any given time and that's what I'm looking for in this scoring system.
-jb-
Footballguy
I think my man love for Dillon is justified. I play in only one league (12 team, redraft, super flex, PPR) and have Henderson but not Dillon. I would love Henderson to be the guy in Los Angeles but the reality is he appears to be in a full blown time share. Henderson dominated snaps and touches in week one and I was ecstatic because I thought it was because Akers was worse off from the Achilles than the Rams let on. But it appears to have been an issue with practice habits because in week 2 Akers was in on 43% of the snaps to 56% for Henderson. What's worse is Akers dominated the opportunities 18-10. Henderson didn't even get a target. Now, he salvaged his day with a TD but that is tough to bank on. I think Arizona is vulnerable to the run and I think the Rams will be in scoring position plenty, the question is how much usage is Henderson going to get this week and ATM his floor is low and I cannot ignore it.
Dillon has a brutal matchup. Personally I think defenses are going to key on the Packer backfield as much as they are able until the Packer receiving corps figures things out. However with Aaron Rodgers under center there is only so much resource you can dedicate to stopping the run. Dillon is on the field 54% of the time (Jones 60%) and has received 16 & 21 opportunities over the first two weeks. I know Tampa Bay represents a huge challenge and this looks like it could be a low scoring game similar to last week against the Saints, but Dillon will get used and opportunity is King.
Personally because of locked in opportunity I go with:
Dillon>Henderson
Understood. Counterpoint - read the following on the interwebs:
"Cam Akers did see more work week 2, but Henderson still saw 56% of the snaps. There’s more good news: Henderson saw 100% of the 3rd down snaps, and 80% of the goal-line touches. Translation: he’s earning the high-value touches. Plus, the game environment is fantastic. The Rams have a 27-point team total, and the Cardinals are bottom-10 vs. the run. Henderson has real TD upside this week."
edit: after reading your post more thoroughly I think we're on the same page.
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
I have a stable of WR3/Flex/Bench caliber WRs
Pick 2, ppr:
B Aiyuk @Den
S Shepard @Dal
H Renfrow @Ten
JuJu @KC
Olave @Car
I have Aiyuk and Shepard in the lineup currently, giving Aiyuk the benefit of the doubt with the week 1 monsoon and week 2 QB change. Shepard is getting the targets to provide a nice floor.
Renfrow had a decent ppr game last week but fumbled twice including the game losing strip six plus the concussion concerns.
JuJu is my least favorite of the bunch.
Olave is progressing nicely but concerns about Jameis' back and ability to sling the rock for 4 quarters.
Pick 2, ppr:
B Aiyuk @Den
S Shepard @Dal
H Renfrow @Ten
JuJu @KC
Olave @Car
I have Aiyuk and Shepard in the lineup currently, giving Aiyuk the benefit of the doubt with the week 1 monsoon and week 2 QB change. Shepard is getting the targets to provide a nice floor.
Renfrow had a decent ppr game last week but fumbled twice including the game losing strip six plus the concussion concerns.
JuJu is my least favorite of the bunch.
Olave is progressing nicely but concerns about Jameis' back and ability to sling the rock for 4 quarters.
I agree with your reasoning but JuJu can't be playing @KC as a visitor
JuJu and Sheppard might be closer to a tossup but you should go with your gut which obviously says Shepard. I wouldn't trust Renfrow or Winston throwing to Olave this week.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah and I'll throw in another complicating factor. I just read that Alan Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb all missed practice today. How much can the Packers withstand before we start wondering if the Bucs D might pitch a shutout.I think my man love for Dillon is justified. I play in only one league (12 team, redraft, super flex, PPR) and have Henderson but not Dillon. I would love Henderson to be the guy in Los Angeles but the reality is he appears to be in a full blown time share. Henderson dominated snaps and touches in week one and I was ecstatic because I thought it was because Akers was worse off from the Achilles than the Rams let on. But it appears to have been an issue with practice habits because in week 2 Akers was in on 43% of the snaps to 56% for Henderson. What's worse is Akers dominated the opportunities 18-10. Henderson didn't even get a target. Now, he salvaged his day with a TD but that is tough to bank on. I think Arizona is vulnerable to the run and I think the Rams will be in scoring position plenty, the question is how much usage is Henderson going to get this week and ATM his floor is low and I cannot ignore it.
Dillon has a brutal matchup. Personally I think defenses are going to key on the Packer backfield as much as they are able until the Packer receiving corps figures things out. However with Aaron Rodgers under center there is only so much resource you can dedicate to stopping the run. Dillon is on the field 54% of the time (Jones 60%) and has received 16 & 21 opportunities over the first two weeks. I know Tampa Bay represents a huge challenge and this looks like it could be a low scoring game similar to last week against the Saints, but Dillon will get used and opportunity is King.
Personally because of locked in opportunity I go with:
Dillon>Henderson
Understood. Counterpoint - read the following on the interwebs:
"Cam Akers did see more work week 2, but Henderson still saw 56% of the snaps. There’s more good news: Henderson saw 100% of the 3rd down snaps, and 80% of the goal-line touches. Translation: he’s earning the high-value touches. Plus, the game environment is fantastic. The Rams have a 27-point team total, and the Cardinals are bottom-10 vs. the run. Henderson has real TD upside this week."
edit: after reading your post more thoroughly I think we're on the same page.
It is a surprisingly more difficult call than I imagined. I absolutely see a path for Henderson to outperform Dillon. The Rams have an opportunity to put up a lot of points and Henderson should get a few opportunities. I love that he gets red zone and inside the 10 snaps but I would have felt better if any of those carries were inside the 5 or at the stripe. In the fourth quarter Rams had 1st & goal from the 7 and gave it to Henderson who ran for 6 (he ran in his TD on 1st & goal from the 8). For some reason they passed on 2md & 3rd down both incomplete. I love that he was in on all 3rd downs, but he didn't generate a target. You're not much use as an outlet if the first and second reads are open (or the QB radar locks on a single target to the detriment of the team).
Yeah, tough call. I might flip-flop if the Pack is down so many receivers. The backs should see more opportunities but they would be a lot easier to defend IMO.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So with wind is Cooper still a good play or DJ Moore? Standard league
titusbramble
Footballguy
For sure, just wanted to give a bit of context as to why I'm asking about such an awful spot in the first placeI was kidding. I hope you know that.You play in too many leagues, you also need to draft better if you need three of these guys in your lineup.
12 team SF league, starting 2RB, 3WR as well as the 2 flex, and had Mitchell go to IR, so...
Chaka
Footballguy
It's a tough call because I find the weather reports are not always indicative of how it feels on the field. I would check multiple sources and see if you can get a shot of what the field conditions look like, maybe something in the pregame show will tip it off.
But, yes at 20 mph I am much more hesitant to start QBs and pass catchers. DJ hasn't gotten on track, really yet but you have to figure he is getting enough volume to start producing more.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Moore/Thielen
But you definitely could regret it. Often when it’s “OMG IT’S A TORNADO OUT THERE!!!”
It ends up a little breezy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Update: looks windy as hell. LolMoore/Thielen
But you definitely could regret it. Often when it’s “OMG IT’S A TORNADO OUT THERE!!!”
It ends up a little breezy.
Chaka
Footballguy
Just saw the Browns run out of the tunnel with smoke machines blowing vertically and it was immediately being swept away by the wind. Definitely bench your kickers.Update: looks windy as hell. LolMoore/Thielen
But you definitely could regret it. Often when it’s “OMG IT’S A TORNADO OUT THERE!!!”
It ends up a little breezy.
@zeke2222 @Weebs210
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So glad changed out. Ty again for the early weather report.Just saw the Browns run out of the tunnel with smoke machines blowing vertically and it was immediately being swept away by the wind. Definitely bench your kickers.Update: looks windy as hell. LolMoore/Thielen
But you definitely could regret it. Often when it’s “OMG IT’S A TORNADO OUT THERE!!!”
It ends up a little breezy.
@zeke2222 @Weebs210
Chaka
Footballguy
It's highly speculative but I wouldn't blame you if you did. If you think about it, the Rams lost Robert Woods and OBJ (although the shadow of his potential return looks large) and may not have adequately replaced them with Allen Robinson. Someone needs to step in and fill the void, why not Higbee?
The only concern I have (other than OBJ) is Van Jefferson hasn't been in the lineup. I am not sure his status for this week but if he's out, Higbee is absolutely worth at least anyone week rental.
I have to believe Hock will become more involved as the season progresses. The interior of Detroit's offensive line has been beset by injury over the first two weeks so maybe Hock is being kept in line more often. I think Ragnow is back at practice but I am not sure. Same for Jonah Jackson. If both play maybe Hock gets more routes.
need2know
Footballguy
Thanks as always. I could keep both. Need another te at some point anyway. Would you drop any of the following to keep 2 tes on the roster? I am deep at wr with chase, aj brown, and waddle.
Renfroe
Theilen
Walker
Mattison
Chaka
Footballguy
Kenneth Walker?
I cut bait on Renfrow after last week for Curtis Samuel. No one has picked him up yet. I watched both Raider games start to finish and IMO they have a lot to figure out before I can be confident they can support three pass catching options.
I would absolutely drop Renfrow for Higbee ATM. Higbee might outperform him overall let alone relative to his position.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I didn't listen to you and started Hunt. Not terrible, but exactly the kind of floor play I was anticipating. (I realized it was also helpful to start him as a hedge against CMC sitting this weekend, although it now appears that won't be an issue.)
I hope Wilson makes me regret my decision on Sunday, because that will make me more confident that I have this year's Justin Jefferson moving forward
Chaka
Footballguy
The tough thing about doing this thread every week is the possibility of being wrong. That's why I track the data as best I can.
I feel terrible when I take a strong stand on a player and their output runs counter to my stance (e.g. Pollard last week, or even Amari last night, that one wasn't a strong stance but I made a late change in opinion based on wind. That sucked).
I truly hope that, like you, everyone who asks a question in here merely uses it as another, minor, resource in the difficult process of making a decision based on incomplete information. I hate to think that people might simply run with my recommendations no matter how frustrating or difficult it can be to choose between players.
At any rate, I hope it works out for you this week...sort of, I imagine Garrett Wilson will be a fixture in this thread this week.
Last edited:
efactor
Footballguy
Picked up Goff to start over Brady this week. Would play him over Wilson this week too. Since Philly will put up a lot of points, Wentz may get some nice garbage time, but hate to rely on that happening. I like Goff over both of them if he is an option
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I think JWilly and Pierce, although I'm not super confident on the second one. Definitely more of a ceiling play.
I'm facing the same QB dilemma and am going with Goff. I may end up regretting it, but I've decided Russ needs to earn my trust back before I can start him again. Similar to what I said in my earlier post about Garrett Wilson, there's a part of me that hopes he makes me regret my decision, because that will mean I now have the QB1 that I drafted
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