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Week 1 Overreactions / Underreactions (1 Viewer)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to the Super Bowl
They have a really nice opening schedule for sure.

I've gotten really into Guillotine leagues the last few years where the lowest score gets cut each week. Rather than drafting for the best playoff schedule, you draft for the best schedule over the 1st 4 or 5 weeks. Tampa is favorable across the board early on. If Baker's on waivers in shallow leagues, he's a nice streamer the next few weeks.

I have Love and Baker. So hopefully Baker can hold it down and keep the team alive until Love gets back.
 
What horrendous outings from Olave & Cooper. Carr went off yet Olave had like 2.5 points? Cooper dropped a long ball TD but also has to deal with how bad Watson is.
I’m concerned with Olave’s lack of consistency, but hoping it was just a game plan to avoid a tough matchup vs Jaycee Horn. Still - great receivers overcome that and earn targets. Carr only threw 23 times. That won’t be the norm. He’ll get his as long as he’s healthy but they won’t force it to him even if us owners want that
 
Falcons were the biggest disappointment, in my opinion. All that fire power on offense and wow.....time to go to Penix.

Deshaun Watson belongs somewhere other than the NFL. Jail, but the world isn't just.

Fire these coaches in order:

1. Brian Dabol - It's over. This team sucks. He sucks. I've not seen a team be this ill-prepared to start a season in years. Bad. Nothing positive about this. He needs to go now.
2. Kevin Stefanski - Sorry man, not your fault you have to coach Watson. But this was unacceptable.
3. Zac Taylor - What was that? Good lord, what was that?
 
Going team by team

1. TN: I think Pollard is the guy, and Spears is a glorified handcuff. Better days ahead for Ridley. Hopkins is cooked
2. Chicago: Caleb looked bad at home, and I'm worried about all that pass catchers in the short term. He probably improves throughout the year.
3. STL: I'm still not convinced Kupp is a world beater or that he stays healthy. Unholy volume, only 7.9 YPC. Corum is back to zero concern.
4. Detroit: ARSB is fine, La Porta is fine, Jameson doesn't do thi severy week.
5. Dallas: Zeke won the day but only out touched Dowdle 12 to 9. Not giving up on Dowdle yet. Better days ahead for Lamb. Cooks remains TD dependent.
6. Cleveland: Watson will never be the Houston Watson, but he won't play Dallas pass rush every week. Cooper and Ford will all be better. According to sleeper, Njoku is questionable.
Just want to address these, as a differing/agreeing viewpoint. I greatly appreciate the idea of going through each team.

1. I'm not fully ready to go that far with Pollard/Spears, but its clear its not a 50-50 split. The Titans did lead for basically the entire game, so maybe that threw it off a bit, but I think 60-40 is most likely.

2. Bears offense looked very out of sync. Not sure its all on Caleb, but he did very little well. The 1 thing he did at least was not hold the ball forever which is a welcome change for Chicago. But yeah, I think my fading DJ Moore in all drafts feels pretty ok right now.

3. I'm with you on Kupp. This doesn't feel sustainable. He's probably a decent sell-high if Puka is out for a while.

4. Total agreement. Jameson might actually open up higher YPC numbers for ARSB and LaPorta.

5. Dallas did this last year too, where they started hot with Defense scores every week. I do think Cooks is slightly undervalued.

6. I'm on the other side here. I think Watson is trash. I think he might be the worst starting QB in the NFL, and its clear he either doesn't care, or is playing scared. He just does nothing. I 100% believe if you gave Daniel Jones that supporting cast, he'd be better than Watson. Browns are gonna be rough, maybe Chubb saves them (longshot) at some point?

7. Washington: Daniels is the truth. Ugly game, wound up as QB3 with Monday night pending. Think the passing will be up and down. McLaurin won't be this bad every week. Don't rely on any other pass catchers. Brian Robinson is the guy at RB.

8. TB: They won't cook this hard every week. White's continued inefficiency is opening the door for Bucky to steal a lot of touches. Godwin is going to be a lot better than last year, Evans is Evans.

9. Oakland: I think better days are ahead for White, but Mattison is going to take enough touches including the passing touches, to be a pain. Adams isn't a zero, but he isn't a WR1 anymore. Jakobi will be what we expected. Bowers is ready to help your FF team now and the TE position is a wasteland.

10. LAC: The Ghost of JK Dobbin's ligaments and tendons is just fine. He's better than Gus. I got that one so wrong. Herbert is going to struggle be useful week to week. McConkey is the pass catcher to own

11. Denver: Backfield looks closer to a split. Sutton will struggle week to week with Nix under center.

12. Seattle: KWIII is the man. Better days ahead for Metcalf. JSN still waiting for father time to stop Lockett.
7. Kinda think Daniels is a bit of a sell high too. Thought the WRs looked awful (even Terry) and Daniels showed no accuracy on anything that wasn't a screen or checkdown. His rushing will be great, but I think 2022 Fields is probably a best-case scenario.

8. Fully agree with all of this, would throw in the caveat that Washington might have the NFL's worst secondary (its them or NYG, which will be fun for Philly/Dallas) so maybe we tap the brakes slightly, at least on Baker, who I've seen talked about as a low-end QB1, and that feels premature.

9. Agree with almost all of this, other than I think Meyers role is probably only gonna get smaller as Bowers emerges. I think he's a waiver wire guy.

10. Dobbins had a nice game, but its a long season. I'm not ready to jump on board yet. Agree on Herbert/McConkey.

11. I think this offense is gonna be even worse than last year. I think you need to be in a 16-team league to be starting any Bronco.

12. It feels like its been 5 straight years of "Lockett's not the guy anymore, get out while you can" and yet here he is still being the most trusted option. He's not going away. He's closer to the #1 than the #3. Thought Seattle's OL played better than they have in a long time, other than inside their own 3 where they forgot not to hold in the endzone.

13. Steelers: As meh as Fields was, I think he's better for the other offensive pieces. I *think* Warren sees more work as he continues to improve from the hamstring. Patterson will see enough touches all year to be annoying to Najee/Warren owners. Pickens is good with Fields. Russ really didn't throw it to WR's a ton in Denver, and I would be more worried about Pickens with Russ.

14. Atlanta: THIS IS THE BIGGEST ONE. Kirk Cousins isn't anywhere near 100% from the Achilles. Can't push off all the way on the back foot. Going to hamper the pass catchers all season.

15. Arizona: I expect bigger days from the entire offense. Conner was fine, but I think better days are ahead. MHJ will be just fine.

16. Buffalo Josh Allen is a TD machine, it's just life. James Cook will be really solid, but his upside is capped. Allen taking 2 TD's, Ray Davis taking carries and catches. Still had 13.3 PPR points. Better days ahead for Kincaid. Coleman already better than what I expected. Shakir still feels boom/bust. Maybe just a weird 1st week.

17. New England: Offense runs through Rhamondre. I wouldn't consider anyone else. Rhamondre is going to see ridiculous volume all season though.

18. Cincy: Better days ahead for all involved. No Higgins, limited Chase, New England managed to muddy things up. If Chase is playing a full compliment of snaps next week, I think they're fine for fantasy.
13. I thought Fields played well. No bad decisions, some clutch throws, and good accuracy. Still holds the ball way too long, but he should keep the job. Agree on everything else.

14. It wasn't even the physical stuff, Cousins made awful decisions too. Could have easily thrown 2 more INTs. I don't think his leash is all that long. He doesn't rebound quick, Penix will get a shot. Not to let Pitts/London off the hook, as other than 1 busted coverage TD for Pitts, neither seemed to ever be open.

15. Not as high on this offense as most have been all offseason. Harrison was always overpriced, but I still think he'll be a WR2. I'm a little worried about Kyler, I was the low guy on him (QB10 going into the season) and nothing made me feel better about him. Notable that Benson was the #3 behind Demercado. Not sure that's a one-off.

16. Mildly worried about Kincaid. Just because volume was so much of his appeal, we don't know that he's all that good yet. Agree with Allen/Cook takes.

17. My only pushback on Stevenson (who I've also been high on) is that how often is NE gonna spend an entire game leading this season?

18. There will be better days, but I think the 2021-2022 offense might be gone. Burrow looks skittish, and that's carried over from last season to me. I want to believe, but I'd be nervous if he were my starter right now. Not worried about Chase though. For now at least, Moss seems to be firmly ahead of Brown.
 
Looks like Javonte Williams may not be the back to have in Denver.

:kicksrock:
You think that Jaleel separated himself with his 2.7 ypc and his 5 receptions for a total of 1 yard, and a lost fumble? I think that it’s just week 1 in regard to Javonte and the Broncos. I’d hope that he and Nix both improve. I actually think that both Javonte and Jaleel will be fantasy relevant at some point in this season—but it’s hard to extract that any of them gained or lost share in that system based on yesterday.
 
Underreaction: Deshaun should be benched
Let Winston throw for 5K and accept his 30+ INTs.

….Amari owner who is worried.
It’s nuts to think that the Browns had Baker in 2022 and acted like he was some sort of cancer and paid Deshaun stupid money. Flacco was a better qb than Deshaun and Baker is showing that he’s a solid NFL QB.
 
Underreaction: Deshaun should be benched
Let Winston throw for 5K and accept his 30+ INTs.

….Amari owner who is worried.
It’s nuts to think that the Browns had Baker in 2022 and acted like he was some sort of cancer and paid Deshaun stupid money. Flacco was a better qb than Deshaun and Baker is showing that he’s a solid NFL QB.
Don't forget about the 3 1st rounders along with the 3rd, 4th and 5th. It would have been bad enough to sign him to that contract as a FA :popcorn:
 
Underreaction: Deshaun should be benched
Let Winston throw for 5K and accept his 30+ INTs.

….Amari owner who is worried.
It’s nuts to think that the Browns had Baker in 2022 and acted like he was some sort of cancer and paid Deshaun stupid money. Flacco was a better qb than Deshaun and Baker is showing that he’s a solid NFL QB.
That's just the Browns doing Browns things... Some things never change.
 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to the Super Bowl
They have a really nice opening schedule for sure.

I've gotten really into Guillotine leagues the last few years where the lowest score gets cut each week. Rather than drafting for the best playoff schedule, you draft for the best schedule over the 1st 4 or 5 weeks. Tampa is favorable across the board early on. If Baker's on waivers in shallow leagues, he's a nice streamer the next few weeks.

I have Love and Baker. So hopefully Baker can hold it down and keep the team alive until Love gets back.
Their early schedule is brutal. At least in terms of strength of schedule. Don't know if you mean for fantasy purposes.

They looked great yesterday, but that Washington D stinks. Still put up a 37 burger and it felt like they left ten points out there.
 
19: Houston: Nico is the man. Diggs was pedestrian, but saved by the TD's. 6 for 33 and 2 TD's. He probably doesn't have a 2 touchdown game the rest of the season. I think he's still 3rd in the pecking order. Better days ahead for Dell, especially having had 7 targets. Mixon is still very good. RB1 szn.

20. Indianapolis: I'm skeptical on Richardson. He's top 5 week 1 despite going 9/19. As teams adjust and take away the over the top stuff, can he hit the short and medium stuff? The rushing upside will keep him in QB1 territory, I just see the 9/19 and think worse days ahead. Pittman isn't going to be fed as heavily with Richarson. Better days ahead for Taylor. Don't think you can trust Pierce, Dulin, Mitchell week to week.

21. Jags: Brian Thomas Jr. is the guy. Kirk is better than 1 for 30, but BTJ is the guy. I'm still not buying Gabe Davis. Lawrence back end QB1. Engram should bounce back. ETN still their most talented back, but Bigsby will bring the volume down. I don't know that I'll ever feel confident starting Bigsby.

22. Dolphins: Achane is him. Hill and Waddle are what we thought they were. I'm honestly not sure better days ARE ahead for Mostert. He's like 32 and got 8 touches to 17 for Achane.

23. Carolina is awful. Young is awful. I think the RB's will have better days, but Sanders took way more work than I expected and feel way less confident about Chuba. Diontae should have better days not facing Lattimore.

24. MN: Jefferson is still really good. Stats would have been better if not a total blow out. Aaron Jones still electric. Not sure he stays healthy. Addison feels like he's just headed towards a messy season.
19. I think Diggs>Dell, but agree overall. Stroud kinda sucked in this one (by his standards anyway) so its likely they all see better days, at least yardage wise. I spent all offseason trying to tell people how much better a fit Mixon would be in the Texans scheme. This is probably an aberration (30 carries always is) but he's here to stay as a top-10 guy.

20. Pretty much agree. I will say despite his low stat line, Mitchell spent most of the game pretty open. I think he's the WR to own after Pittman, despite the others getting the TDs. As a guy who had Taylor RB2 overall, I'm a little concerned. Might be more top-10 than top-3.

21. 100% agree on Thomas. He looked outstanding, and should have had another TD. He's the #1 already. The Jags told us all offseason that they wanted to be a more downfield passing team and lighten Etienne's workload. Score one for coachspeak I guess, because they did both of those things in week 1.

22. Agree 100%. Would add, I'm not surprised at all by Jonnu Smith not being a big part of the offense. I have a lot of Achane/Waddle shares. I wish I had more than 1 Hill share.

23. The really scary thing is, I thought the new look OL played really well. I think they have to seriously consider starting Dalton if Young keeps this up. Maybe he should have sat a year? He's clearly pressing, and I don't think its an easy fix. Brooks is gonna be a workhorse whenever he's back, offense might be hard to start guy from until then.

24. A lot of teams are gonna wish they'd signed Aaron Jones instead of what they actually did at RB (looking at you Chicago, and probably GB too) he still looks elite. Giants pass D is pathetic, so I don't wanna overreact, but Darnold looked good. Maybe they knew what they were doing after all?

25. NYG: Better days in store for Nabers, Daniel Jones is doo doo water. The offense is so bad, Singeltary isn't going to have many big fantasy days. W Robinson may be a sneaky PPR guy (12 targets, 6 receptions).

26. Packers: Reed is him. Watson is still really good. Jacobs was going to have a great season. Downgrade everyone quite a bit until Love is back. Willis is bad.

27. Eagles: Saquon career year. Hurts may indeed lose some push tush TD's. AJ Brown and D Smith are who we thought they are. Goedert continues to be hard to rely on but TE is a dumpster fire as a whole.

28. Saints: Kamara still that dude. Better days ahead for Olave, they just got up on Carolina so early and were dominating elsewhere. Taysom Hill had 5 carries for 35 yards, probably gets considerably more usage in a non-blowout. Shaheed is what we thought.

29. Baltimore: Andrews will be fine. Top 5 TE still. Upside capped. Likely probably had his best game of the season. Henry will have better volume most games. Hill still takes most of the passing work. Flowers may catch 100 balls for 500 yards. Interesting dude. Lamar is going to run for his life all season and may lap the field on his way to QB1.

30. KC: Rice is for real. Kelce will bounce back. Pacheco is who we thought he was. Perine will take enough of the receiving volume to cap his upside.
25. Nabers will be a WR2, anyone hoping for more in this offense was delusional. I kinda feel bad for Daniel Jones. Like I don't think he's an NFL starter, but I think he's better than doo-doo water. He's better than a few other team's starters, he just has so little help. Pressure up the gut on almost every play, Giants OL is still a huge problem other than LT. I doubt Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito would do better.

26. The Love injury sucks. That said, I wasn't impressed by Jacobs. Still think they downgraded by quite a bit going from Jones to Jacobs. He's a middling RB2 without Love. WR still looked like a whack-a-mole to me. It was just Reed's week. He's probably the best overall bet.

27. I don't wanna say sell-high, because it'd have to be REALLY high (like 2 high-end starters+) but I think Barkley probably just had his best game of the season. Hurts played maybe his worst game as a starter, and should have had 2-3 more turnovers. I'm confident that gets ironed out, and I think the tush push will still be fine. Agree on the WR/TE, but would add, I think Brown's ceiling is WR1 overall, if Hurts plays better. He easily could have had another 50 yards and a TD. Smith could sneak into the low-end WR1 range in the Lamb/Allen role.

28. No real disagreement. Not worried about Olave. OL played a lot better than expected, could just be Carolina, but this was a projected potential bottom of the NFL group without Ramczyk. Fuaga especially looked good in his debut.

29. I think its very possible Likely>Andrews, but we don't have near enough to go on there. I am open to the possibility though. Room for both in 1 WR offense. Henry is as close to a buy-low as there is at RB I think. Ravens will be leading most weeks, and I doubt they really want Lamar at this level of rushing volume.

30. Important to keep in mind the Ravens might have the NFL's best defense. Not worried about Pacheco's YPC, or Mahomes 1 TD, or Kelce's down week (though it actually was pretty solid in retrospect given the week 1 TE landscape) I do think Noah Gray could be more involved than people want, especially Worthy/Brown owners, as a healthy amount of 2-TE sets are here to stay. I think there could be some whack-a-mole after Pacheco/Rice/Kelce.
 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to the Super Bowl
They have a really nice opening schedule for sure.

I've gotten really into Guillotine leagues the last few years where the lowest score gets cut each week. Rather than drafting for the best playoff schedule, you draft for the best schedule over the 1st 4 or 5 weeks. Tampa is favorable across the board early on. If Baker's on waivers in shallow leagues, he's a nice streamer the next few weeks.

I have Love and Baker. So hopefully Baker can hold it down and keep the team alive until Love gets back.
Their early schedule is brutal. At least in terms of strength of schedule. Don't know if you mean for fantasy purposes.

They looked great yesterday, but that Washington D stinks. Still put up a 37 burger and it felt like they left ten points out there.
Yeah. Strictly fantasy purposes.
 
Jags threw 21 passes and had 162 yards passing. That doesn’t scream “we want to be a more downfield passing team”
 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to the Super Bowl
They have a really nice opening schedule for sure.

I've gotten really into Guillotine leagues the last few years where the lowest score gets cut each week. Rather than drafting for the best playoff schedule, you draft for the best schedule over the 1st 4 or 5 weeks. Tampa is favorable across the board early on. If Baker's on waivers in shallow leagues, he's a nice streamer the next few weeks.

I have Love and Baker. So hopefully Baker can hold it down and keep the team alive until Love gets back.
Their early schedule is brutal. At least in terms of strength of schedule. Don't know if you mean for fantasy purposes.

They looked great yesterday, but that Washington D stinks. Still put up a 37 burger and it felt like they left ten points out there.
Yeah. Strictly fantasy purposes.
I think you're good. They're going to score.
 
Jags threw 21 passes and had 162 yards passing. That doesn’t scream “we want to be a more downfield passing team”
7.7 YPA is pretty high. That was Dak Prescott last season, who was 5th in the NFL. Its also a full yard per attempt higher than Lawrence's career average.
 
27. I don't wanna say sell-high, because it'd have to be REALLY high (like 2 high-end starters+) but I think Barkley probably just had his best game of the season.

In all my years of being an armchair draftnik, Saquon is probably the best talent I've ever seen at the RB position. An absolute Madden create-a-player. He had some bad luck with injuries and we became accustomed to watching him play for terrible offenses. He's not going to score 3 TDs very often, so in that sense I might agree that this could be his best week of the season. Yardage wise, I'll take the over.

Even at 27 with mileage and injuries, he's still good enough to be the best RB in the NFL. I think we need to adjust our expectations now that he's finally on an offense dangerous enough to generate a lot of TDs and dissuade defenses from focusing on him. When Marshawn Lynch moved from Buffalo to Seattle, he began to perform like a completely different player and produced at a level we hadn't seen from him before. Saquon has a chance to do something that like that, and if you're interested in winning your league, I don't think you want to shift him onto anybody else's roster.
 
Mark Andrews- This offense no longer flows through him. It's Flowers/Likely and youth speed. This one is tough though because I don't think he will be a complete bust, and KC really did game plan for him, but I think his years of being a top 5 TE are over.
I screwed up, he might be a total bust.
 
Amari Cooper. Everyone kept passing him and I though he was a bargain in the 6th. Everyone must have known something I didn’t.
 

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