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Week 1 Overreactions / Underreactions (1 Viewer)

Overreaction: Tight ends are overrated as a position as they all vastly underperformed their draft positions.

Overreaction: rookie rb like chase brown, corum, and wright doing nothing. It is the general rule that it will take a long time for rookies to get the trust needed to pass protect and obtain more playing time. And honestly, a lot of starting rbs get injured over course of season so stack up now.

Underreaction: rbs who dominated carries and didn’t pop off. Cook, Harris, Kyren, pollard,pacheco, Brian Robinson. Lot of these guys had worries of people coming up behind them but they dominated carries. And carries are what matters. There are also rbs who have bigger splits than anticipated which would also have me concerned.
 
MHJ first target was well wide & uncatchable....dropped his first on target pass, a short dig route....came right back to next play for a 4 yard slant

Kyler never targeted him again.

:shrug:

It'll get better. Kid has all the tools, no way does he bust.

Haven't seen the game and won't get All 22 until midweek, but just looking at the game log:
  • Behind LOS or 0-9 yards: 16/19 131 TD
    (Lg 22 & 24 to RBs, all YAC)
Every first half pass attempt was under 10 yards downfield, most were within 5 yards of the LOS or behind LOS.

Cards were up 17-3 with 2:40 left in the half, Bills went 7 plays 70 yards TD

2nd half possessions:

3rd Q​
  • Bills 10 plays 60 yards TD
    (back to back long drives to tie game)
  • Cards 3 n out, sack
  • Bills 3 n out
  • 1/1 3 yards, strip sack lost fumble
  • Bills short TD drive
    (21 unanswered)

    4th Q

  • Cards long drive FG
    (only 1 Pass Att)
  • Bills long TD drive
  • Cards Kickoff Return TD
  • Bills 1 FD punt
  • Cards 3 n out 28 yard punt
  • Bills short drive FG
  • Cards 9 plays 31 yards turnover on downs
Murray went 5/12 for 31 yards in the second half, lost fumble, 3 sacks (the first 3 possessions he went 1/6 for 3 yards)
  • Behind LOS or 0-9 yards: 5/9 31 yards
  • Deep 20+: 0/3 - 3rd Q throw behind McBride, on the first play of their last drive - dropped by Wilson - and then on 4th down, the last offensive play of the game for the Cards, incomplete to Dortch

This one just got away from them....have to see the tape but that sounds like a Junior Varsity offensive scheme. Seemed to be no intermediate routes but have to see what the passing depth charts say (Tuesday.)
 
Bigsby nearly matching Etienne's usage and outplaying him.
You think this keeps up all year?
I don’t think it needs to necessarily keep up. The primary reason why Etienne was drafted early was because he was expected to have a GIANT share of the running game. The fact that Bigsby might even get 30-40% of that is concerning.
My players that moved the needle either way

Feel Awesome:
KW3
A. Jones
Godwin
Kamara
Shaheed

Some hope:
Fields
QJ

Concerned:
Diontae
Ridley

Glad I moved them:
Swift
Pittman- he will be ok but value was probably at it's highest
Ford

I almost went after and glad I didn't:
Watson
Dimes
I agree with a lot of your takes—but I am a bit baffled by being concerned about Calvin Ridley. Deandre Hopkins is basically unstartable at this point. Levis had as bad of a week as one could hope—and Ridley still had 7 targets (ended up with 3 for 50 yards). I guess it just depends on the role that Ridley plays on your team. On my team—he’s my WR3/flex. With Deandre not being able to do pretty much anything today—I’m extremely comfortable with the outlook for Ridley as an upside WR3/flex. I’m not concerned at all. I think that if I played in a league where I didn’t own Ridley—and the Ridley owner seemed concerned—he would absolutely be a guy that I would put some lowball offers on.
 
Titans and Bears are two of the top defenses

The Titans lied about practicing special teams this summer.

The Bucs are required to add Marquise Goodwin if one more person spells Godwin wrong.

Yoshi is a Greek word that means "fooled ya"

Dalvin is actually the Cowboys cook. It was misreported.

There's a secret club of underperforming people named Jones that was started when Adam Duritz said Mr Jones was stumbling thru the barrio. They're looking for a new president. After Jerry Jones held out to pay CeeDee and Dak the most money, Velus wanted attention. When Daniel Jones saw Velus fumble right to the Titans, he said "no, no, I got this."

Marvin Harrison Jr's contract did not stipulate that he have many catches.

A lot of people that insulted Malik Willis will lose bets next week when he performs better than their QB did in week one.

A former Saginaw Valley State and indoor football League QB may take some snaps in Green Bay next week.

That's really a hologram of Tom Brady and he's live streaming from home. Someone needs to smack the side of the mechanism like an old TV, then he won't pause so often.

"Love thy Nabers" will be trademarked by Jagger tomorrow

Deshaun's settlement stipulated that he only play six games per year. This year it'll be due to benching.

That was the Bengals JV team
 
I'm over-reacting to the Bengals game.
They had a nice Gesicki TD overturned and a fumble near the goal line, but even if they get that TD, and managed to pull out the game, why were the Pats even in this game? Bengals have two WRs worth a darn, a JAG at TE, and now JAGs in the backfield. They have no underneath YAC guys to help Burrow. Their defense has no special playmakers, and the AFC just has a bunch of teams I think can beat them. Burrow injured his wrist in Week 11 last year, and there still seems to be a question about if that wrist is 100%. And they lose Higgins after this season, and he and Chase aren't happy with their money. Looked like just another team.

I don't know if I am under-reacting or over-reacting to the Panthers. I think they are a useless mess, and feel bad for every guy on the roster. Whatever you classify that as, that's what I am. Perhaps the next team that drafts a 5'9, 170 pound QB, will go and get him a good RB.

I am under-reacting to Bo Nix's first game. I thought he looked good, going to SEA for your first game is no joke. I expected them to lose, and for him to have a bad time of it, but he showed that his game in college, he can do that in the pros. Underneath, game manager stuff. Which he will need to do, because this WR group is not much better than the Patriots'. No idea if he can develop beyond that kind of game, but we won't know that for a while.
 
I'm worried about Kincaid and all the Bills pass catchers. Long gone is the Daboll 4-wide high flying offense. McDermott is going to turn this into a ball control, run heavy team if it kills him. I think Allen will be fine for fantasy due to his rushing upside but this offense overall is going to be hard to watch if you don't have James Cook on your roster.
I think the Bills may have a coaching problem.

I think they had it last year when they sacrificed the OC to save their jobs.
This might be like Staley in SD, where the talent hid the fact that he was doing a bad job. For a while.
 
Overreaction: the belief most QBs and mid to late round WRs you drafted at value suck. Only 2 QBs threw over 300 yards, and only another 6 broke 250 yards. As much as I'd like to say "THE YEAR OF THE RB!!! RBs are back baby!!" it's much more realistic to say this is the result of an 18 game season and extremely limited preseason touches for starting QBs (and even a lot of starting WRs). It's cliche, but yeah week 1 is pretty much now a preseason game for a lot of these teams. They mostly all looked rusty out there to me, except maybe Baker. If you were super high on a guy for the past 4 months, I'd trust your gut and hold onto them for at least another week. Very few competitive leagues are going to have much of anything on waivers this week, as most of the pop-off guys were still later round picks (at least in all my leagues).

Underreaction: Not much IMO, except maybe MHJ and Nabers. Both obviously fine in dynasty. But before the season even started, taking those guys in the 2nd/3rd round of redraft felt like ceiling picks at best. After a week, it's hard not to worry they won't come close to returning that value. Long season though, and at this point drafters are pot committed so just have to hope for the best.
 
People will overreact to MHJ 100% - it’s up to you to decide if you want to pony up value to obtain him at 90-95 cents. Feels too soon to take on that risk but if you have the right roster.

People should panic on the Bengals. @massraider is correct that this is just a loser franchise with negative and sour attitudes and a cloud of just a ****storm over them. Zac Taylor looks like he’s ready for the next chapter of life and Burrow is just smiling that he’s generationally wealthy. They had a nice little run for the Super Bowl but that defense was stacked and I don’t think they should’ve beat the Chiefs.

How do you lose to Brissett at home with that much preparation? The Patriots are a winners type culture and franchise…unlike the Bungles.

Also think Cousins may not make it the whole year. Writing was on the wall when Atlanta when the GB approach and drafted his replacement in the first round. They had money to spend and made the correct choice in filling in a gap. Atlanta is a winning-ish franchise and I think they are OK with moving on from things that don’t work out.
 
Really the only thing that I feel is a big deal from 1 week is when we get proof we were wrong about a role. This is especially true for RBs because WR/TE is usually so game script dependent. Etienne has a problem for FF. DHenry has a problem for FF. Kyren might smash again. Mixon might smash.
 
People will overreact to MHJ 100% - it’s up to you to decide if you want to pony up value to obtain him at 90-95 cents. Feels too soon to take on that risk but if you have the right roster.
My take on him would be he's not a great fit for Murray's play style. MHJr. is a route technician that's going to play on time. Murray is a school yard QB that doesn't.
 
Kenneth Walker is a lot closer to the Hall/Bijan/Taylor level of talent than he was drafted as. Might be the steal of the fantasy draft. Had another TD called back today, on a pretty iffy call.
I have said this going back to last year. I was laughed at when for saying he is one of the best RB's in football. He is.
 
Players I am worried about

Olave

Kincaid

Harrison

JT (not even a look in the passing game. Barkley seems like the better pick at ADP)


The Giants and Panthers are absolute garbage.
 
What horrendous outings from Olave & Cooper. Carr went off yet Olave had like 2.5 points? Cooper dropped a long ball TD but also has to deal with how bad Watson is.
 
Bigsby nearly matching Etienne's usage and outplaying him.
You think this keeps up all year?
Duuu-val homer here, and the answer is yes, as long as the Jags remain competitive in games

Tank worked hard offseason to regain the trust of the staff. He was drafted to churn out the short and tough yards, something the Jags have been abysmal at for years

They also want to use Etienne more in the passing game

Going into the season, I expected Bigsby to get 150 carries; the fact that he was the better rusher yesterday now leads me to believe that 150 could be his floor
 
Going team by team

1. TN: I think Pollard is the guy, and Spears is a glorified handcuff. Better days ahead for Ridley. Hopkins is cooked
2. Chicago: Caleb looked bad at home, and I'm worried about all that pass catchers in the short term. He probably improves throughout the year.
3. STL: I'm still not convinced Kupp is a world beater or that he stays healthy. Unholy volume, only 7.9 YPC. Corum is back to zero concern.
4. Detroit: ARSB is fine, La Porta is fine, Jameson doesn't do thi severy week.
5. Dallas: Zeke won the day but only out touched Dowdle 12 to 9. Not giving up on Dowdle yet. Better days ahead for Lamb. Cooks remains TD dependent.
6. Cleveland: Watson will never be the Houston Watson, but he won't play Dallas pass rush every week. Cooper and Ford will all be better. According to sleeper, Njoku is questionable.
 
7. Washington: Daniels is the truth. Ugly game, wound up as QB3 with Monday night pending. Think the passing will be up and down. McLaurin won't be this bad every week. Don't rely on any other pass catchers. Brian Robinson is the guy at RB.

8. TB: They won't cook this hard every week. White's continued inefficiency is opening the door for Bucky to steal a lot of touches. Godwin is going to be a lot better than last year, Evans is Evans.

9. Oakland: I think better days are ahead for White, but Mattison is going to take enough touches including the passing touches, to be a pain. Adams isn't a zero, but he isn't a WR1 anymore. Jakobi will be what we expected. Bowers is ready to help your FF team now and the TE position is a wasteland.

10. LAC: The Ghost of JK Dobbin's ligaments and tendons is just fine. He's better than Gus. I got that one so wrong. Herbert is going to struggle be useful week to week. McConkey is the pass catcher to own

11. Denver: Backfield looks closer to a split. Sutton will struggle week to week with Nix under center.

12. Seattle: KWIII is the man. Better days ahead for Metcalf. JSN still waiting for father time to stop Lockett.
 
13. Steelers: As meh as Fields was, I think he's better for the other offensive pieces. I *think* Warren sees more work as he continues to improve from the hamstring. Patterson will see enough touches all year to be annoying to Najee/Warren owners. Pickens is good with Fields. Russ really didn't throw it to WR's a ton in Denver, and I would be more worried about Pickens with Russ.

14. Atlanta: THIS IS THE BIGGEST ONE. Kirk Cousins isn't anywhere near 100% from the Achilles. Can't push off all the way on the back foot. Going to hamper the pass catchers all season.

15. Arizona: I expect bigger days from the entire offense. Conner was fine, but I think better days are ahead. MHJ will be just fine.

16. Buffalo Josh Allen is a TD machine, it's just life. James Cook will be really solid, but his upside is capped. Allen taking 2 TD's, Ray Davis taking carries and catches. Still had 13.3 PPR points. Better days ahead for Kincaid. Coleman already better than what I expected. Shakir still feels boom/bust. Maybe just a weird 1st week.

17. New England: Offense runs through Rhamondre. I wouldn't consider anyone else. Rhamondre is going to see ridiculous volume all season though.

18. Cincy: Better days ahead for all involved. No Higgins, limited Chase, New England managed to muddy things up. If Chase is playing a full compliment of snaps next week, I think they're fine for fantasy.
 
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19: Houston: Nico is the man. Diggs was pedestrian, but saved by the TD's. 6 for 33 and 2 TD's. He probably doesn't have a 2 touchdown game the rest of the season. I think he's still 3rd in the pecking order. Better days ahead for Dell, especially having had 7 targets. Mixon is still very good. RB1 szn.

20. Indianapolis: I'm skeptical on Richardson. He's top 5 week 1 despite going 9/19. As teams adjust and take away the over the top stuff, can he hit the short and medium stuff? The rushing upside will keep him in QB1 territory, I just see the 9/19 and think worse days ahead. Pittman isn't going to be fed as heavily with Richarson. Better days ahead for Taylor. Don't think you can trust Pierce, Dulin, Mitchell week to week.

21. Jags: Brian Thomas Jr. is the guy. Kirk is better than 1 for 30, but BTJ is the guy. I'm still not buying Gabe Davis. Lawrence back end QB1. Engram should bounce back. ETN still their most talented back, but Bigsby will bring the volume down. I don't know that I'll ever feel confident starting Bigsby.

22. Dolphins: Achane is him. Hill and Waddle are what we thought they were. I'm honestly not sure better days ARE ahead for Mostert. He's like 32 and got 8 touches to 17 for Achane.

23. Carolina is awful. Young is awful. I think the RB's will have better days, but Sanders took way more work than I expected and feel way less confident about Chuba. Diontae should have better days not facing Lattimore.

24. MN: Jefferson is still really good. Stats would have been better if not a total blow out. Aaron Jones still electric. Not sure he stays healthy. Addison feels like he's just headed towards a messy season.
 
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Some week 1 thoughts:

- Concerned about the Falcons offense, particularly London who was drafted at projected levels he's never achieved
- concerned about Amon Ra and his target share due to the number of weapons in Detroit and the fact they can just throw to Jameson/LaPorta if they are doubling Amon Ra
- I was excited about Javonte before seeing how he looked...it's one game but a pedestrian start
- Kupp / Rice may be the steals of the draft
- Bucky Irving has a nice burst and wiggle and could carve out a nice role while it sounds like Corum has to work on pass pro before he's gonna see the field
- I thought the Giants were going to be bad and they are going to be worse than I thought....I thought the Panthers may start to improve but they showed nothing week 1.
- I'm really bummed I didn't get Kenneth Walker on any of my teams. Loved him but didn't end up with him and he looks like he can be a top 5 back if he's the bell cow
- Looks like I may have overestimated Caleb Williams ability to step from college into the pros...
- I didn't see the Bengals struggling like they did. I understand Higgins was out and Chase was limited but I assumed Burrow being Burrow he would figure it out and keep them competitive and clearly missed that
 
14. Atlanta: THIS IS THE BIGGEST ONE. Kirk Cousins isn't anywhere near 100% from the Achilles. Can't push off all the way on the back foot. Going to hamper the pass catchers all season.
I have no idea if it will last all year, but he looks un-good.

And Atlanta's defense isn't anything to be afraid of. They just lost to a RB playing QB.
 
25. NYG: Better days in store for Nabers, Daniel Jones is doo doo water. The offense is so bad, Singeltary isn't going to have many big fantasy days. W Robinson may be a sneaky PPR guy (12 targets, 6 receptions).

26. Packers: Reed is him. Watson is still really good. Jacobs was going to have a great season. Downgrade everyone quite a bit until Love is back. Willis is bad.

27. Eagles: Saquon career year. Hurts may indeed lose some push tush TD's. AJ Brown and D Smith are who we thought they are. Goedert continues to be hard to rely on but TE is a dumpster fire as a whole.

28. Saints: Kamara still that dude. Better days ahead for Olave, they just got up on Carolina so early and were dominating elsewhere. Taysom Hill had 5 carries for 35 yards, probably gets considerably more usage in a non-blowout. Shaheed is what we thought.

29. Baltimore: Andrews will be fine. Top 5 TE still. Upside capped. Likely probably had his best game of the season. Henry will have better volume most games. Hill still takes most of the passing work. Flowers may catch 100 balls for 500 yards. Interesting dude. Lamar is going to run for his life all season and may lap the field on his way to QB1.

30. KC: Rice is for real. Kelce will bounce back. Pacheco is who we thought he was. Perine will take enough of the receiving volume to cap his upside.
 
Burrows is cooked. That hand injury last season looks like it will be a chronic problem.
I didn't see any of the game. Followed the box score. Does he look bad throwing the ball? Or were the backup receivers just not able to get open consistently?
 
Derek Carr has no chemistry with Chris Olave.....and honestly, never has.
thought new offense was going to help, looking like had my rose colored glasses on...

What horrendous outings from Olave & Cooper. Carr went off yet Olave had like 2.5 points? Cooper dropped a long ball TD but also has to deal with how bad Watson is.
Overreaction:
The Saints threw the ball 23 times, only 7 times after halftime. I don't think this game is a fair representation of the New Orleans offense or pecking order in the passing game.
 

What horrendous outings from Olave & Cooper. Carr went off yet Olave had like 2.5 points? Cooper dropped a long ball TD but also has to deal with how bad Watson is.
Overreaction:
The Saints threw the ball 23 times, only 7 times after halftime. I don't think this game is a fair representation of the New Orleans offense or pecking order in the passing game.
This. Saints won elsewhere. Game script didn't require them to keep throwing.
 
Looks like Javonte Williams may not be the back to have in Denver.

:kicksrock:
Watched more of that game than intended because there were only 4 afternoon games on red zone. Hard to tell anything about the Denver RBs because the overall offense was so bad. McLauglin has 5 catches for 5 yards, but every pass I saw go to him was telegraphed and easy to defend. Same with the one target Williams got. Seahawks had everyone close to the LOS. Going to be tough sledding for Denver if they can't hit even intermediate passes.
 
Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
I'm going to say yes to Watson & no to Williams. Feels objectively unfair to compare a rookies first game to Watson's seventh year in the league and third year in Cleveland.
agreed.

Lots of rookies take a few weeks to get up to speed. it is rare that a rookie lights it up in week 1. but if you drafted yourself a rookie to be a starter, you may want to get yourself a good backup to play until hes ready (or if you have one ready, play him)
 
📉Discouraging Week 1 snap rates📉

67% - George Pickens
65% - Tank Dell
49% - Derrick Henry
47% - Cole Kmet
44% - Tyjae Spears
43% - Raheem Mostert
39% - Zamir White
33% - Chase Brown
26% - Luke Musgrave
17% - Marvin Mims
11% - Khalil Herbert

That seems INSANE on Pickens. He's by far the best guy they have. Why bring him off the field?

RIP Mims fantasy value.

I don't know what I expected from Herbert, but it was bette than 11%. 35 at least? Maybe as the season goes on, he gets more chances. But surprised he was so uninvolved week 1.
 

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