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Week 1 Overreactions / Underreactions (2 Viewers)

Deamon

Deamon

Footballguy
Which are simply a bad game, and which are a sign of things to come?
 
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Here's a few underreactions:

Marvin Harrison- No he won't have many 1 catch days, and will improve throughout the season. But those taking him in Round 2, are going to be waiting a LONG time for him to live up to that draft capital. Kyler isn't even looking at him. He isn't even getting open often.

Mark Andrews- This offense no longer flows through him. It's Flowers/Likely and youth speed. This one is tough though because I don't think he will be a complete bust, and KC really did game plan for him, but I think his years of being a top 5 TE are over.

Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
 
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Deamon said:
Here's a few:

Marvin Harrison- No he won't have many 1 catch days, and will improve throughout the season. But those taking him in Round 2, are going to be waiting a LONG time for him to live up to that draft capital. Kyler isn't even looking at him. He isn't even getting open often.

Mark Andrews- This offense no longer flows through him. It's Flowers/Likely and youth speed. This one is tough though because I don't think he will be a complete bust, and KC really did game plan for him, but I think his years of being a top 5 TE are over.

Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
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I have a lot more confidence in the Bears overcoming their week 1 struggles and returning draft value than most other teams who struggled week 1. They have so much talent and Williams really does look the part. It will take a minute for him to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but at least he's on the way up and by all accounts is willing to put in the work.

The Browns on the other hand are in trouble. Watson is a problem. He reached his peak and doesn't seem to care anymore. Browns need to move on whatever the cost. He's dead weight and it's killing the rest of his team.

I agree with your other takes, but while I agree most fantasy drafters wildly overvalued Harrison in the draft (top 10-15 in most cases), I believe he will end up with a nice stat line. He's another rookie that's going to take a minute to get up to game speed but he as all the physical tools to do so. And they need him to do it to win.
 
eighsse2 said:
Bigsby nearly matching Etienne's usage and outplaying him.
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I don't put a lot of stock in anything I saw in that game. It was ugly with no real rhythm on both sides and if the Phins DB doesn't make an amazing play at the goal line Etienne's performance would be getting looked at much differently. He looks like he has burst but had little room to run. Bigsby looked good on a few runs, just like he did last year. I'm not convinced it's anything to see, but who knows? It's the Not For Long league and and Bigsby did look a little skinner/more spry than I remember him last year.
 
I’ll go out on a limb : Travis Kelce. He looked like just one of many weapons. Now that they have Pacheco, Rice, and Worthy, he seemed marginalized.

Noah Gray outpointed him this week. I think he’ll still have good weeks, but hunch is his TE1/2 days as the clear cheat code in drafts might finally be over.
 
Chaka said:
Deamon said:
Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
Click to expand...
I'm going to say yes to Watson & no to Williams. Feels objectively unfair to compare a rookies first game to Watson's seventh year in the league and third year in Cleveland.
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I'm not saying this as a hot take, or trying to be controversial. I legitimately think Watson is the 7th best QB in his own division, and that's ignoring his WORST IN NFL HISTORY contract.

I am saying I truly believe Watson would be the 3rd best QB on the Bengals or Steelers, and arguably the Ravens too, even if their backup is a guy the Browns cut.

I like Stefanski as a playcaller, and the Browns have a very good defense. They aren't a serious threat with Watson at QB.
 
Deamon said:
Here's a few underreactions:

Marvin Harrison- No he won't have many 1 catch days, and will improve throughout the season. But those taking him in Round 2, are going to be waiting a LONG time for him to live up to that draft capital. Kyler isn't even looking at him. He isn't even getting open often.

Mark Andrews- This offense no longer flows through him. It's Flowers/Likely and youth speed. This one is tough though because I don't think he will be a complete bust, and KC really did game plan for him, but I think his years of being a top 5 TE are over.

Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
Click to expand...
Overreactions:

Kincaid: Just wasn't involved, but think Allen will start looking his way more now.

Lamb: He's still getting looked at a lot. Big Dallas win so weren't throwing much at the end. He will still beast.

Mahomes: Looked amazing, but bad stats. Going to start putting up big numbers soon.
 
Jayded said:
I’ll go out on a limb : Travis Kelce. He looked like just one of many weapons. Now that they have Pacheco, Rice, and Worthy, he seemed marginalized.

Noah Gray outpointed him this week. I think he’ll still have good weeks, but hunch is his TE1/2 days as the clear cheat code in drafts might finally be over.
Click to expand...
Wait until Hollywood gets back.
 
travdogg said:
Chaka said:
Deamon said:
Browns/Bears Offensive Players.- Both offenses looked horrible. It wasn't just bad luck, or easily correctable mistakes... it feels like Watson/Williams are really struggling.
Click to expand...
I'm going to say yes to Watson & no to Williams. Feels objectively unfair to compare a rookies first game to Watson's seventh year in the league and third year in Cleveland.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying this as a hot take, or trying to be controversial. I legitimately think Watson is the 7th best QB in his own division, and that's ignoring his WORST IN NFL HISTORY contract.

I am saying I truly believe Watson would be the 3rd best QB on the Bengals or Steelers, and arguably the Ravens too, even if their backup is a guy the Browns cut.

I like Stefanski as a playcaller, and the Browns have a very good defense. They aren't a serious threat with Watson at QB.
Click to expand...
Y'know I don't entirely disagree. But I think it's a little more nuanced. I believe Watson could easily be the 3rd best QB in the division with 1st QB upside. But I also believe with his legal issues, lost time and quarter bil guaranteed he lost his drive to be great and seems to just be going through the motions.

When the dust settles, IMO this will go down as the worst trade in NFL history. Including Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams.
 
People shouldn’t react either way, whether over or under. I prefer to keep my wits about me and make informed decisions, which are informed reactions.
 
Bucky Irving>Rachaad White as a runner. The 2023 White workload is unlikely to be there again, might be a 50-50 split later in the season. White's too valuable as a pass catcher to lose the job entirely, but not a promising start, despite the solid PPR week.

Kenneth Walker is a lot closer to the Hall/Bijan/Taylor level of talent than he was drafted as. Might be the steal of the fantasy draft. Had another TD called back today, on a pretty iffy call.

De'Von Achane is a lot closer to what his supporters thought than his doubters. No reason he doesn't lead the team in carries and finish 3rd in catches. 10-13 carries, and 4-6 catches is a reasonable weekly expectation, and he's not pulled at the GL.

2 from earlier in the week:

Isiah Pacheco saw 18 of 22 RB touches. KC isn't gonna be trailing often, this is a modern NFL workhorse. YPC will be higher against worse defenses (which all of them might be compared to the Ravens)

DeVonta Smith is playing the Lamb/Allen role in Kellen Moore's offense. He's gonna be a PPR star. Brown is playing the Cooper/Williams role (though obviously he's a lot better than those guys ever were) I kinda feel the Eagles pass game is being undervalued in the wake of Barkley's game. He won't score 3 TDs most weeks.
 
travdogg said:
Bucky Irving>Rachaad White as a runner. The 2023 White workload is unlikely to be there again, might be a 50-50 split later in the season. White's too valuable as a pass catcher to lose the job entirely, but not a promising start, despite the solid PPR week.

Kenneth Walker is a lot closer to the Hall/Bijan/Taylor level of talent than he was drafted as. Might be the steal of the fantasy draft. Had another TD called back today, on a pretty iffy call.

De'Von Achane is a lot closer to what his supporters thought than his doubters. No reason he doesn't lead the team in carries and finish 3rd in catches. 10-13 carries, and 4-6 catches is a reasonable weekly expectation, and he's not pulled at the GL.

2 from earlier in the week:

Isiah Pacheco saw 18 of 22 RB touches. KC isn't gonna be trailing often, this is a modern NFL workhorse. YPC will be higher against worse defenses (which all of them might be compared to the Ravens)

DeVonta Smith is playing the Lamb/Allen role in Kellen Moore's offense. He's gonna be a PPR star. Brown is playing the Cooper/Williams role (though obviously he's a lot better than those guys ever were) I kinda feel the Eagles pass game is being undervalued in the wake of Barkley's game. He won't score 3 TDs most weeks.
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Overreaction: I think that Barkley WILL score 3 TDs each week!!
 
Going the other way here.

Given the adps, the career outlooks, and the left-for-dead attitude in just about every league, podcast discussion, and "expert" opinion, there are underreactions to the performances of Sam Darnold and JK Dobbins.

That said, I've also decided that nobody knows nothin' about nothin'.
 
Proteus said:
Going the other way here.

Given the adps, the career outlooks, and the left-for-dead attitude in just about every league, podcast discussion, and "expert" opinion, there are underreactions to the performances of Sam Darnold and JK Dobbins.

That said, I've also decided that nobody knows nothin' about nothin'.
Click to expand...

I was very high on Dobbins coming into the season. Drafted him in my league and have him on my subscriber contest roster. I think he’s a must-add if he’s available in your league.

I didn’t watch the Vikings game today but I’m assuming Sam Darnold is still Sam Darnold and the Giants are still the Giants. :shrug: Did he look good or did he just beat up on a terrible team?
 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Proteus said:
Going the other way here.

Given the adps, the career outlooks, and the left-for-dead attitude in just about every league, podcast discussion, and "expert" opinion, there are underreactions to the performances of Sam Darnold and JK Dobbins.

That said, I've also decided that nobody knows nothin' about nothin'.
Click to expand...

I was very high on Dobbins coming into the season. Drafted him in my league and have him on my subscriber contest roster. I think he’s a must-add if he’s available in your league.

I didn’t watch the Vikings game today but I’m assuming Sam Darnold is still Sam Darnold and the Giants are still the Giants. :shrug: Did he look good or did he just beat up on a terrible team?
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I thought he looked great, largely because he was given something he's seldom had in the NFL: Time. And one of the strong suits of the woeful Giants was supposed to be its pass rush.

And it also looks like he is very comfortable doing what the scheme needs him to do. It's more about the whole team than anything, and it also looks he and O'Connell are in lockstep and I doubt anyone is missing Cousins right about now.
 
I'm worried about Kincaid and all the Bills pass catchers. Long gone is the Daboll 4-wide high flying offense. McDermott is going to turn this into a ball control, run heavy team if it kills him. I think Allen will be fine for fantasy due to his rushing upside but this offense overall is going to be hard to watch if you don't have James Cook on your roster.
 
My players that moved the needle either way

Feel Awesome:
KW3
A. Jones
Godwin
Kamara
Shaheed

Some hope:
Fields
QJ

Concerned:
Diontae
Ridley

Glad I moved them:
Swift
Pittman- he will be ok but value was probably at it's highest
Ford

I almost went after and glad I didn't:
Watson
Dimes
 
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