PPR league. Two part question -- 1) First need to decide on a TE, then 2) Determine one flex where the TE I don't choose in 1) is an option.
1) TE
* K. Pitts vs CHI -- Here we go again. He's getting tons of air yards. His "first read %" among ALL receivers is off the charts. This is who they target IF they pass. That said, Mariota hasn't been hitting the broad side of a barn. CHI D is terrible. Pitts should again have opportunities. They just have to connect. You'd think the laws of probability would be in Pitts favor here.
or
G. Dulcich vs LV -- Wilson had his only good game against LV earlier this year. Jeudy AND Hamler are out. It looks to be the Sutton and Dulcich show. The LV pass defense is possibly the worst in the league (although they can get after the QB decently). Hackett could prove moronic and instead of attacking this weakness continue to try and execute a "balanced" attack with that horrible crew of RBs.
Which TE?
2) Flex
* Either Pitts or Dulcich above -- I'd note that looking across various rankings sites, Dulcich is surprisingly high vs. the options below.
* K. Drake vs CAR -- Gus has been limited all week so it's not even a sure thing he's active. If not, Drake should be the lead dog. I'd think Drake still gets apprx. 40% of the touches even if Gus is active. There could be plenty of touches to go around against CAR. I don't see CAR moving the ball against BALT too well. They looked damn good with newly acquired R. Smith. Could be a blowout. Hell, even J. Hill could get some run.
* G. Edwards vs CAR -- See above. Was thinking he was a better option until he got a limited practice on Friday.
My gut: If Gus in active, go Drake in the flex. If not, go with each TE -- one in flex, one in TE.
Note: My opponent has "green" matchups across the board. I think I need ceiling this week. Already played C. Watson and that paid off. Need a win or I'm possibly eliminated.
Which TE? Which Flex?
Thanks!
Dulcich has only played the last four games.
snaps: 39-45-49-65
routes run: 25-33-29-39
He’s led the DEN TEs in both every week he played.
Alignment:
boundary WR: 4
Slot: 86
Tight: 117
The other 3 DEN TEs have 101 snaps in the slot over 9 games.
ADOT: 12.9
For comparison:
Kelce 7.3, Andrews 10.7, Likely 7.6, Ertz 7.3, Goedert 5.0, Kittle 6.1, Hockenson 5.2, Schultz 5.9, Pitts 13.6
Greg Dulcich has the most receiving yards (193) by a Broncos tight end in his first four games in team history.
ETA: he’s 8th in the NFL for TE receiving yards over the last 5 games. On a per game basis, 5th (despite last week’s clunker - which could have easily looked quite different if they connected on a long pass when he was wide open.)
Dulcich leads all TEs in YPC.
Last week Wilson missed him on a 50 yarder. His ability to get open on seam routes is amazing.
The Week 10 dud:
Incredible usage was there again for Greg Dulcich yesterday.
* 71-of-80 snaps
* 40 inline, 25 slot, 6 wide
* 40 routes on 49 Russ Wilson dropbacks
* Just 4 targets for a 9.5% share
* 1-11-0 result
The system is blinking red.
Obvious caveats. Lousy offense, QB is washed. But this kid is legit. I expect him to be a Top 6-8 TE ROS. Great schedule. They revamped their offense to get him involved. They will continue to make him a focal point.
I kind of view your other choices as a coin flip. Pitts has similar QB/Offense/HC issues. I never understand how to predict BAL RB usage (like Edwards but who knows.)
But Dulcich should be your weekly TE.