Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 14 was another solid week as I managed a nice 10-6 mark. Not quite 11-0-1 like Week 13, but hey, winning is winning, right? Now I'm up to 60% for the season (69-46-2) despite a weak start. Not bad - but always stay humble. None of that helps me this week - so what are my thoughts for Sunday?
Ugh - that's my first thought. These games stink. I don't like much of anything here as the lines are both set well and also the ones that I think are "off" involve some really weak teams (Seattle/St. Louis, this means you). Anyway, I will call some of these, but I don't see a lot of value, so maybe this might be the week to take some time away from this? We'll see.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (OVER 44) - (1 star)
This one could be a shootout. Don't think for a second that the Falcons didn't notice what Carolina did to the Bucs on Monday Night with 299 yards rushing (and should have been 300, but Jake Delhomme took a knee). The Bucs are on a short week and are reeling on defense, but don't think for a second that Monte Kiffin didn't lay into that defensive unit. Michael Turner would love to run all over them on Sunday. As for Tampa, Jeff Garcia is not 100% but he'll likely start (game time decision as of Sat. night). There's enough firepower on both sides of the ball to get to 21 points each, which means that the over is a reasonable pick here. It's a field goal game more than likely, something like 30-27 Bucs. Both teams need the game (Tampa has a good shot at the division despite Carolina's win, Atlanta has to win out to get to the playoffs) so expect the offenses to try every which way to score.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (Over 47.5) - (1 star)
Carolina might reach 40 on their own as the Broncos have struggled against the run all year. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should top 100 yards each and score. Denver? They have to throw at least twice as often as they run with the loss of Peyton Hillis (who predicted that a month ago??) but Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal should rise to the occasion. Look for big games for both offenses and 24+ per side. I'd think that Carolina wins just because they need it more (NYG and NO loom on the schedule) and Denver's hurting at tailback. 34-24 Carolina.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 36.5) - (1 star)
Did I mention that I don't love these games? I expect Portis and company to get back on track, but this is more about the Bengals. They should find the end zone at least once and possibly twice, which would be just enough to topple this low number. I like it but I don't love it. It could be a 24-7 game, but I'm thinking both teams can manage 17 points.
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Oakland Raiders - (1 star)
Randy Moss returns to The Black Hole, but it is the Raiders that should be sucked into oblivion and never see the light of day again. Moss should be returning here and, contrary to the popular believe that Nnamdi Asomugha will mirror Moss all day, word is that he'll favor one side and the Patriots will just put Gaffney in front of him. That frees up Moss on the other side and Welker in the slot. Anyone wonder now why the Raiders are bad? The Patriots defense is so old that ESPN Classic wants to show their games live, but any 11 warm bodies can stop the Raiders, with or without JaMarcus Russell. It's a good debate as to which version is better, kind of like deciding which poison tastes best. Even LaMont Jordan may see action against his old team - yes, it's that bad Oakland. The good news is that it is almost over - and then it is Al Davis signing season! Patriots 31-10.
New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
All the attention this week has been on Dallas with the controversy over MB3's toughness and TO's tirades over Romo-Witten-gate. Very quietly the news about Plaxico has faded and the real news about Brandon Jacobs being held out is not even making front page news. That's exactly how Tom Coughlin likes it. Derrick Ward is no slouch at RB2 for the Giants, and he will put up good numbers this week. Add in that the Cowboys secondary can barely find four starters coupled with Eli's good track record against Dallas and I think the Giants pull the upset. That's right, the #1 NFC team is pulling an upset - didn't expect that, did you? The Giants need to get back on track before the big Carolina game so expect them to play full throttle the next two weeks.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 38.5) - (1 star)
The Eagles will crank up their offense to show the rest of the league that they still are a playoff-caliber team. The Browns defense is not very good, but the key to this call is whether or not Cleveland can get some points. I think that they can as both Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards are capable of a score. Expect McNabb and Westbrook to push Philly close to that total on their own, but some help from Cleveland should make this an easy one. 38-17 Philadelphia.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Green Bay Packers (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (2 stars)
Green Bay has a slim chance to make the postseason so they must win out. Jacksonville loses Fred Taylor and Matt Jones, yet the line has held steady. I don't get that. Jacksonville should not win this game and I feel pretty comfy laying two points as they should do just that. The Pack are putting up decent points of late (27-37-29-31-21 in the last five) which Jacksonville's only topped 20 points once since Week 6 - against Detroit. Green Bay will be susceptible to the run and MJD, but the secondary is strong enough to play 7 or 8 in the box and try and contain him. Green Bay should win this one by at least a touchdown, something like 31-20.
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)
How can a one loss team be this underrated? The Texans are definitely doing much better with Matt Schaub back under center, but the Titans are 12-1 for a reason. They don't blow out many teams that don't play in Detroit, or do they? Looking back over their schedule, they've won 8 of their 12 victories by 10 or more points, including a 31-12 win over Houston in Week 3. The Titans are also motivated, as if they lose and the Steelers win this week the race for the #1 seed tightens up quite a bit before those two square off in Week 16. Tennessee needs to continue to roll on and get amped up for a good offense and a tough back in Steve Slaton to contain. Tennessee should be ready for the challenge and win this one 27-20.
***THREE STAR GAMES***None.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 14 was another solid week as I managed a nice 10-6 mark. Not quite 11-0-1 like Week 13, but hey, winning is winning, right? Now I'm up to 60% for the season (69-46-2) despite a weak start. Not bad - but always stay humble. None of that helps me this week - so what are my thoughts for Sunday?
Ugh - that's my first thought. These games stink. I don't like much of anything here as the lines are both set well and also the ones that I think are "off" involve some really weak teams (Seattle/St. Louis, this means you). Anyway, I will call some of these, but I don't see a lot of value, so maybe this might be the week to take some time away from this? We'll see.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (OVER 44) - (1 star)
This one could be a shootout. Don't think for a second that the Falcons didn't notice what Carolina did to the Bucs on Monday Night with 299 yards rushing (and should have been 300, but Jake Delhomme took a knee). The Bucs are on a short week and are reeling on defense, but don't think for a second that Monte Kiffin didn't lay into that defensive unit. Michael Turner would love to run all over them on Sunday. As for Tampa, Jeff Garcia is not 100% but he'll likely start (game time decision as of Sat. night). There's enough firepower on both sides of the ball to get to 21 points each, which means that the over is a reasonable pick here. It's a field goal game more than likely, something like 30-27 Bucs. Both teams need the game (Tampa has a good shot at the division despite Carolina's win, Atlanta has to win out to get to the playoffs) so expect the offenses to try every which way to score.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (Over 47.5) - (1 star)
Carolina might reach 40 on their own as the Broncos have struggled against the run all year. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should top 100 yards each and score. Denver? They have to throw at least twice as often as they run with the loss of Peyton Hillis (who predicted that a month ago??) but Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal should rise to the occasion. Look for big games for both offenses and 24+ per side. I'd think that Carolina wins just because they need it more (NYG and NO loom on the schedule) and Denver's hurting at tailback. 34-24 Carolina.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 36.5) - (1 star)
Did I mention that I don't love these games? I expect Portis and company to get back on track, but this is more about the Bengals. They should find the end zone at least once and possibly twice, which would be just enough to topple this low number. I like it but I don't love it. It could be a 24-7 game, but I'm thinking both teams can manage 17 points.
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Oakland Raiders - (1 star)
Randy Moss returns to The Black Hole, but it is the Raiders that should be sucked into oblivion and never see the light of day again. Moss should be returning here and, contrary to the popular believe that Nnamdi Asomugha will mirror Moss all day, word is that he'll favor one side and the Patriots will just put Gaffney in front of him. That frees up Moss on the other side and Welker in the slot. Anyone wonder now why the Raiders are bad? The Patriots defense is so old that ESPN Classic wants to show their games live, but any 11 warm bodies can stop the Raiders, with or without JaMarcus Russell. It's a good debate as to which version is better, kind of like deciding which poison tastes best. Even LaMont Jordan may see action against his old team - yes, it's that bad Oakland. The good news is that it is almost over - and then it is Al Davis signing season! Patriots 31-10.
New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
All the attention this week has been on Dallas with the controversy over MB3's toughness and TO's tirades over Romo-Witten-gate. Very quietly the news about Plaxico has faded and the real news about Brandon Jacobs being held out is not even making front page news. That's exactly how Tom Coughlin likes it. Derrick Ward is no slouch at RB2 for the Giants, and he will put up good numbers this week. Add in that the Cowboys secondary can barely find four starters coupled with Eli's good track record against Dallas and I think the Giants pull the upset. That's right, the #1 NFC team is pulling an upset - didn't expect that, did you? The Giants need to get back on track before the big Carolina game so expect them to play full throttle the next two weeks.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 38.5) - (1 star)
The Eagles will crank up their offense to show the rest of the league that they still are a playoff-caliber team. The Browns defense is not very good, but the key to this call is whether or not Cleveland can get some points. I think that they can as both Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards are capable of a score. Expect McNabb and Westbrook to push Philly close to that total on their own, but some help from Cleveland should make this an easy one. 38-17 Philadelphia.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Green Bay Packers (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (2 stars)
Green Bay has a slim chance to make the postseason so they must win out. Jacksonville loses Fred Taylor and Matt Jones, yet the line has held steady. I don't get that. Jacksonville should not win this game and I feel pretty comfy laying two points as they should do just that. The Pack are putting up decent points of late (27-37-29-31-21 in the last five) which Jacksonville's only topped 20 points once since Week 6 - against Detroit. Green Bay will be susceptible to the run and MJD, but the secondary is strong enough to play 7 or 8 in the box and try and contain him. Green Bay should win this one by at least a touchdown, something like 31-20.
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)
How can a one loss team be this underrated? The Texans are definitely doing much better with Matt Schaub back under center, but the Titans are 12-1 for a reason. They don't blow out many teams that don't play in Detroit, or do they? Looking back over their schedule, they've won 8 of their 12 victories by 10 or more points, including a 31-12 win over Houston in Week 3. The Titans are also motivated, as if they lose and the Steelers win this week the race for the #1 seed tightens up quite a bit before those two square off in Week 16. Tennessee needs to continue to roll on and get amped up for a good offense and a tough back in Steve Slaton to contain. Tennessee should be ready for the challenge and win this one 27-20.
***THREE STAR GAMES***None.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Week 1 - Didn't post a thread.
Week 2 - Record:4-3-1. (A tad charitable on the push, but the line moved from 3.5 to 3 on CAR/CHI).
Week 3 - Record: 1-2.
Week 4 - Record: 4-3.
Week 5 - Record: 4-2.
Week 6 - Record: 2-3.
Week 7 - Record: 5-8.
Week 8 - Record: 4-5.
Week 9 - Record: 7-3.
Week 10 - Record: 7-3.
Week 11 - Record: 6-4.
Week 12 - Record: 4-4.
Week 13 - Part 1 - Record: 1-0.
Week 13 - Part 2 - Record: 10-0-1.
Week 14 - Record: 10-6.
Overall: 69-46-2.
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I'm not so sure I agree on NYG/DAL. Sure the spotlight has been on DAL, but they're still in contention for the playoffs, at home, and are playing a team without their #1 WR and #1 RB. DAL also played really well (defense at least) @ PIT last week, while NYG didn't look hot at all. No offense, not great defense. Should be a good game, and I guess I'm going to still root for NYG, but just don't have much faith.What are your thoughts on:KCC +6, and straight up win (would have liked them more if SD didn't have last thurs game)STL +2.5These are bugging the heck out of me.
I missed the KC game. That's an error. That game was 4 or 5 earlier this week and I was leaning KC at that number.I think KC wins outright. That's a 2-star that I missed, easily. I'll add that one, thanks.I like STL but I don't even have a 1-star level of confidence in the Rams, plus Seattle scares me right now with Seneca Wallace and Deion Branch. On paper, STL should win - but do you really feel good about going with the Rams for anything?If I don't mention a game there is usually a reason - I can see a good case for either side to pull it out. I had left the KC/SD game, BUF/NYJ and MIN/AZ game as "check back later" games. The 7.5 scares me for the Jets, I'd prefer laying under 7. Buffalo's a mess but they can be competitive at times, and the Jets are underwhelming of late. MIN/AZ should push the total (47 or 48) but the lack of Gus Frerotte is a question for the Vikings. The rest are too close to call one way or another. I think Baltimore wins, for example, but that game is really anyone's guess (PIT @ BAL).
