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Week 2: I'm SITTING David Johnson for ___________._ (1 Viewer)

Phantom Knight

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
Phillip Lindsay.  :bag:

All the rankings I see show DJ as a top 10 pick for rbs.  So I must be nuts, but I just cannot think of last week's dismal offensive performance by Arizona without having a nightmare considering the possibilities considering what the Rams' D might do.

 
My options are DJ, Hyde, Cohen to start at RB. Then flex one of those 3, Godwin, Watkins or butt. 

DJ plays. 

 
These threads are getting out of hand. You know why you draft some of these players so highly? Because they're going to give you good to great weeks more often than any other option available. 

 
nobody is doing this, Rams still give up catches to rbs, you never bench DJ unless you are maybe like in a 4 team league

 
Starting Conner, AP, Thomas and Hill currently. Could flex in DJ over any of them, only replacing AP is a possibility and love his match-up a little too much this week. If i'm wrong, i'm wrong.

 
I would consider DJ a top 3 RB play this week. He's a great match up in the passing game vs their LB's. Not sure what OP is thinking here.

 
Phantom Knight said:
I'm stubborn enough that there are not many I'd let talk me off a cliff. One of the few for whom I'll make an exception is SSND. Against my better (ha!) judgement, I am duly put in my spot - and whimpering put DJ back in place.
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I think the only way this becomes debatable is if it's a standard league and you went something like DJ > Howard and drafted Conner and maybe Ajayi. But even then, I still think it's a non-starter because of the way DJ is utilized.

No RB touched the ball more than DJ within the 10 yard line last week (good for standard). Only two RBs saw higher share of their team's targets than DJ's 26% last week (good for PPR), and one of them is Richard who played against LAR. ARI ran the the fewest offensive snaps and had the lowest time of possession last week but because of the way DJ is utilized, he still managed 17.7 points in PPR.

Excluding his first game vs. LAR in which he didn't touch the ball and the game where he sprained his knee, he's put up stat lines up 22/99/0 (2/21/1 receiving) and 17/83/0 (4/41/0 receiving) vs. them. It's definitely not going to be a cakewalk and ARI will probably get blown out again but if you sit a guy like DJ who is super talented, dominates RZ touches and target share, you'll end up regretting it more times than not. 

 
menobrown said:
I would consider DJ a top 3 RB play this week. He's a great match up in the passing game vs their LB's. Not sure what OP is thinking here.
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Sure, but will they use him properly? I couldn't believe his usage last week, down 24-0, where were the screens and catches in the flats? He had 1 catch for 4 yards until late in the game he got a few and ended up 5/30.

 
SameSongNDance said:
I think the only way this becomes debatable is if it's a standard league and you went something like DJ > Howard and drafted Conner and maybe Ajayi. But even then, I still think it's a non-starter because of the way DJ is utilized.

No RB touched the ball more than DJ within the 10 yard line last week (good for standard). Only two RBs saw higher share of their team's targets than DJ's 26% last week (good for PPR), and one of them is Richard who played against LAR. ARI ran the the fewest offensive snaps and had the lowest time of possession last week but because of the way DJ is utilized, he still managed 17.7 points in PPR.

Excluding his first game vs. LAR in which he didn't touch the ball and the game where he sprained his knee, he's put up stat lines up 22/99/0 (2/21/1 receiving) and 17/83/0 (4/41/0 receiving) vs. them. It's definitely not going to be a cakewalk and ARI will probably get blown out again but if you sit a guy like DJ who is super talented, dominates RZ touches and target share, you'll end up regretting it more times than not. 
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Ok, can you please talk me out of starting AP over him. He's basically guaranteed 20+ carries against a soft Colts D at home. Ive considered flexing DJ in over Thomas given NO will probably ride Kamara all day but can't bench him for some reason.

 
I’m starting him. Him, Conner and Collins who went in my flex ahead of Hyde, Burkhead and theoretically whichever one out of Cooks and Adams that I don’t play at WR who could  also have started flex. 

The matchup isn’t great, but you’ll be slamming your head against a wall if he puts up a good week - all he needs is an average YPC with his touches and to run one in or catch a TD from close to the goal line 

 
LionOfGosforth said:
Sure, but will they use him properly? I couldn't believe his usage last week, down 24-0, where were the screens and catches in the flats? He had 1 catch for 4 yards until late in the game he got a few and ended up 5/30.
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I'm sorry but I can't worry about usage in passing game of David Johnson because he "only" got 9 targets.

 
Let’s not forget his back issue that kept him limited for practice most of the week. He could have gotten banged up in the game last week keeping his usage down. It’s week 2, let’s pump the brakes 

 
Tony97gtp said:
Let’s not forget his back issue that kept him limited for practice most of the week. He could have gotten banged up in the game last week keeping his usage down. It’s week 2, let’s pump the brakes 
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Voice of reason. I think there are some players that give genuine pause for thought, I am having a hard time picking between him and AP for instance. The OP is talking Lindsay which I wouldn't personally do but it's not like someone like Conner or AP is ridiculous. Both were catching passes last week as well and dominating carries on their respective teams, both of whom are more in-sync than the Cards.

 
LionOfGosforth said:
Sure, but will they use him properly? I couldn't believe his usage last week, down 24-0, where were the screens and catches in the flats? He had 1 catch for 4 yards until late in the game he got a few and ended up 5/30.
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I don't think this was the problem as most of his targets came in the flats. The problem is that McCoy isn't creative enough, he's not Arians. Arians had DJ running more vertical routes. But the thing is, on average, McCoy targets his RBs more than Arians. There's definitely going to be a target quality problem but in full PPR this difference will be marginal and iron itself out in the long-run.

LionOfGosforth said:
Ok, can you please talk me out of starting AP over him. He's basically guaranteed 20+ carries against a soft Colts D at home. Ive considered flexing DJ in over Thomas given NO will probably ride Kamara all day but can't bench him for some reason.
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I'm assuming you're in a standard league? I can't really talk you out of him because WAS's run blocking was fantastic last week and AP looked great. You're one of the people I could see having trouble with this decision because you drafted Conner. But at this stage in their careers DJ is the better player and is less dependent on game script. AP (53%) still split snaps with Thompson (42%) last week and you don't know what the touch breakdown will look like if the game script is neutral or negative. I know WAS is -6 at home but what if Luck lights it up and the game is a super close affair? What if instead of AP being utilized 29 times and Thompson 12 it's closer to 1:1? These aren't questions you need to ask with DJ. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
I don't think this was the problem as most of his targets came in the flats. The problem is that McCoy isn't creative enough, he's not Arians. Arians had DJ running more vertical routes. But the thing is, on average, McCoy targets his RBs more than Arians. There's definitely going to be a target quality problem but in full PPR this difference will be marginal and iron itself out in the long-run.

I'm assuming you're in a standard league? I can't really talk you out of him because WAS's run blocking was fantastic last week and AP looked great. You're one of the people I could see having trouble with this decision because you drafted Conner. But at this stage in their careers DJ is the better player and is less dependent on game script. AP (53%) still split snaps with Thompson (42%) last week and you don't know what the touch breakdown will look like if the game script is neutral or negative. I know WAS is -6 at home but what if Luck lights it up and the game is a super close affair? What if instead of AP being utilized 29 times and Thompson 12 it's closer to 1:1? These aren't questions you need to ask with DJ. 
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Thank you for the reply. Excellent and very nicely thought out and written. I appreciate very much and I hear you 100%. It's going to be one of those decisions that will be wrong no matter what, and I completely realize that AP's match-up is not at all foolproof. I kind of want to bench Thomas instead and start the 3 RBs (DJ, AP and Conner) as I can see the NO game being all Kamara. Food for thought indeed, thanks SSND, your insight is invaluable.

 
Tony97gtp said:
Let’s not forget his back issue that kept him limited for practice most of the week. He could have gotten banged up in the game last week keeping his usage down. It’s week 2, let’s pump the brakes
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I don't think he was banged up. He still got RZ touches late into the game.

Again it was the offensive snap count which lead to the low usage. ARI ran 51 offensive snaps last week, to put it into context, the teams who annually rank last in offensive snaps struggle to average less than 60 per game. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
Again it was the offensive snap count which lead to the low usage. ARI ran 51 offensive snaps last week, to put it into context, the teams who annually rank last in offensive snaps struggle to average less than 60 per game. 
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This is mostly where my fear comes from - lack of touches.  If I was LA, I would stop DJ at all costs and dare Bradford and the rest of the offense to beat me.  Of course, there is a reason I am not an NFL coach! But should it be borne out that Bradford really can no longer "cut it" especially if the Rams "bring it" (I know, my cake and eat it too if they are focused on shutting down DJ) as I expect they will, the 3 and outs would be most painful to see.  Perhaps Week 1 was an aberration, or perhaps just poor game planning, but it is easier for me to envision a low Arizona score (without tds) or even a shutout than to imagine Arizona scoring a couple of tds. 

 
You should never be drafting someone in the first round you could see yourself benching for any reason other than injury. 

 
Should we just put all future editions in this thread?

I am starting________________ over Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon...

 
Phantom Knight said:
This is mostly where my fear comes from - lack of touches. If I was LA, I would stop DJ at all costs and dare Bradford and the rest of the offense to beat me. Of course, there is a reason I am not an NFL coach! But should it be borne out that Bradford really can no longer "cut it" especially if the Rams "bring it" (I know, my cake and eat it too if they are focused on shutting down DJ) as I expect they will, the 3 and outs would be most painful to see. Perhaps Week 1 was an aberration, or perhaps just poor game planning, but it is easier for me to envision a low Arizona score (without tds) or even a shutout than to imagine Arizona scoring a couple of tds.
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The 0-16 Lions averaged 57 offensive snaps per game. The 0-16 Browns last year average 63 snaps per game. Over the past 20 years, I can't find a team that has averaged less than 54 snaps per game. 

McCoy was the OC of DEN last year and they averaged 67 snaps per game, good for second most. And that team was 5-11 and terrible. Bradford can't be much worse than Siemian or god forbid Lynch. When McCoy was in SD they averaged ~65 snaps per game.

I would bet my car on last week being an aberration as far as offensive snaps go. And since the offense runs through DJ, any increase in offensive snaps very likely means a direct increase in his utilization totals. I mean, think about it, DJ was utilized on 31% of ARI's offensive snaps last week. He is the team.

msudaisy26 said:
Should we just put all future editions in this thread?

I am starting________________ over Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon...
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I like how my Saturday has been reserved to making the case as to why you should start David Johnson. The guy who scored more points in 2016 than any RB since LT is 2006. He could see a 25% decrease in his 2016 totals and he'd still easily finish as a top 3 back.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Should we just put all future editions in this thread?

I am starting________________ over Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon...
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Do we need a separate thread when head coaches do this?

I am starting Tyrod Taylor over Baker Mayfield.   -Hue Jackson

I am starting Taylor Gabriel over Anthony Miller.  - Matt Nagy

etc.

 
SameSongNDance said:
The 0-16 Lions averaged 57 offensive snaps per game. The 0-16 Browns last year average 63 snaps per game. Over the past 20 years, I can't find a team that has averaged less than 54 snaps per game. 

McCoy was the OC of DEN last year and they averaged 67 snaps per game, good for second most. And that team was 5-11 and terrible. Bradford can't be much worse than Siemian or god forbid Lynch. When McCoy was in SD they averaged ~65 snaps per game.

I would bet my car on last week being an aberration as far as offensive snaps go. And since the offense runs through DJ, any increase in offensive snaps very likely means a direct increase in his utilization totals. I mean, think about it, DJ was utilized on 31% of ARI's offensive snaps last week. He is the team.

I like how my Saturday has been reserved to making the case as to why you should start David Johnson. The guy who scored more points in 2016 than any RB since LT is 2006. He could see a 25% decrease in his 2016 totals and he'd still easily finish as a top 3 back.
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I appreciate the gentle sarcasm in regards to your Saturday...and even more the effort you put into your response.  I like numbers.  So I truly appreciate what you have taken time to do here and what you do for the community at large. Thank you. What I actually find most interesting here is the difference between better offenses and worse offenses (67 to 54).  I would have guessed the disparity was much greater. 

 
Never never sit your studs, last week some told me to sit Mike Evens do to matchup, look what happened! Sometimes it doesn’t work out but you don’t  sit your 1st round pick, live and die by your studs. I will, I admit I’m a little concerned.

 
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Anyone who drafted DJ and then considers benching him because of a matchup, might as well trade him .  He IS a must start every week, no matter what, as long as he plays.  Simple as that.  You drafted him in the first few picks.  Don't overthink it.  Unless you can only start 2 RB's, and your other choices are guys like Gurley and Kamara.

 
Rams linebackers are young and experienced.    I don't thjjnk Johnson has a ton of success on the ground, but I won't be surprised with a 10 catch afternoon.     

 
While I can’t think of a circumstance I would personally bench DJ, the age old maxim “never bench your studs” is dogmatic and way too rigid.  

AP could easily out produce him this week.  I’m not throwing stones at anyone who decides to make that play.  

 
zoonation said:
While I can’t think of a circumstance I would personally bench DJ, the age old maxim “never bench your studs” is dogmatic and way too rigid.  

AP could easily out produce him this week.  I’m not throwing stones at anyone who decides to make that play.  
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Are you playing against a DJ owner and hoping he reads this?

 
TheWinz said:
Blows my mind that someone would bench their 1st rd pick over anyone.  Looking forward to the "I'm benching Rodgers, AB, and Gronk" threads.
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Never said I was benching him. Blows my mind that people can be so inelastic in their thinking.  How many first round picks bust every year?

 
Totally anecdotal but whenever I think of benching a stud I think back to Curtis Martin 2004. His magical year, and his second to last season overall, when I just kept waiting for the ride to stop but it didn't.

He had a pretty weak 67 yard performance against a good Buffalo defense and was about to face the vaunted Ravens. Man I struggled with that one. He must have been in and out of my lineup 7-8 times that week. Eventually I decided to roll with my stud (who wasn't even a first round pick for me) and he hung 124 yards and 2 TDs on them. It was awesome. He also put up virtually identical 105/6 yard performances on the #1 Steelers defense twice that season.

I know that has nothing to do with DJ. But in DJ I see a young, dynamic talent who, when he last played a full season performed at a higher level than I ever remember Curtis Martin performing (mostly due to his receiving ability). And all I can think of is how it is better to fail with the smart play than fail with a speculative play. And, while winning with that spec play is undoubtedly amazing it's a spec play for a reason and the odds are not in your favor.

In this particular instance DJ may not put up a great rushing yardage day, he easily could catch 7+ passes and is always a good bet for a goal line TD (or breaking a big one). 

It's week two, start the #4 overall pick.

 
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zoonation said:
Never said I was benching him. Blows my mind that people can be so inelastic in their thinking.  How many first round picks bust every year?
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inelastic is one thing; crazy is another.  The average league starts 2 RB's and a flex, so you'd be starting your RB4 over DJ.  Yes, the Cards looked like #### in week 1, but DJ was still able to put up 17.7 in PPR leagues.  Bench him at your own peril.

 
They’ve run around 20 plays. So bad. 

Edit:  pardon me. 17 plays. In an entire half.  

 
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 don’t evalute the situation...just bury your head in the sand and start the guy because, hey, you drafted him in the first round!

 
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Play calling is also stale. Yes, establish the run to start the second half. But 3 straight up the middle against Suh and Donald isn't going to get it done.

ETA:  I don't think they've tried a single screen to DJ either. Didn't Richard torch these guys last week?

 
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