Wes Welker to Walk? (1 Viewer)

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Has Vollmer been mentioned yet?

you mean mentioned as in signing rumors?I haven't heard any, but I don't really pay much attention until someone actually signs somewhere -- there are 100 bs rumors for every legit one.

I think he's similar to the welker situation where he might price himself out of their plans.

probably tests market, then we'll have to see what he's worth.

btw, just to #### around -- I am welker's agent.

200/3300/26 - wallace

326/3800/22 - welker

I would like to post my client's numbers (some rounding) over the last 3 years, one of which was coming off major surgery, in comparison to wallace's last 3 years.

If I was to skip over that single anomalous recovery year, to use his last 3 healthy years, his numbers would be

363/4250/19

in addition, if I may point out, wallace's yardage has steadily declined in each of these 3 years (1257 to 1193 to 836), while my client has reached 1165+ in 5 of his last 6 seasons -- the only exception being the year he came off major surgery, with his most recent 2 seasons being career best, averaging 1461 yards, 200 yards more than wallace's single best year which he put up 3 years ago.

my client holds the nfl record for most 100 catch seasons -- not only is he the first receiver in nfl history to record five 100 catch seasons, but he actually has five 110 catch seasons.

at a mark of 18 games, he is currently tied with $63m receiver, andre johnson, for most 10+ reception games, but shares the 12+ reception/game record with nobody (9 games).

he also belongs to an elite club of 15 nfl receivers to post a 100/1500 season.

joining names such as - calvin johnson, marvin harrison, reggie wayne, isaac bruce, torry holt, andre johnson, randy moss, herman moore, michael irvin, steve smith, brandon marshall, and jerry rice.

most, if not all, of these receivers were paid top tier money -- why should my client expect less?

while it's true he'll be 32 this year, he's coming off his 2 best career years, and many of his peers, in terms of production, have produced at a high level well into their 30s.

It's not about the last 3 years, it's about the next 3 years.

I'm pretty sure on every athlete in every sport you use the last 3 years to help gauge the next 3 years.unless you have a crystal ball.

 

[Anarchy99]

while it's true he'll be 32 this year, he's coming off his 2 best career years, and many of his peers, in terms of production, have produced at a high level well into their 30s.

This one is very debatable. There have only been 8 times that a 32 yr old or older WR has hit 100 catches in a season, and Rice had 3 of them and Wayne had 2.100 catches in a season has been accomplished:32: 4 times33: 2 times34: 2 times1200 receiving yards in a season has been accomplished:32: 11 times33: 4 times34: 7 timesWelker should be considered more likely to hit those marks than the average receiver, but the numbers still show that it is more rare than it is common.

 

[GregR]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter

Filed to ESPN: Broncos in serious talks, trying to hammer out an agreement with Patriots WR Wes Welker. Decision expected today.

 

[Anarchy99]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefterFiled to ESPN: Broncos in serious talks, trying to hammer out an agreement with Patriots WR Wes Welker. Decision expected today.

I wonder what the Broncos financial situation is. I believe they just had to guarantee $40 million to Peyton yesterday.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

wow. What would be the impact on D THomas, Decker and Welker's value?!?!?

 

[squistion]

wow. What would be the impact on D THomas, Decker and Welker's value?!?!?

Thomas unchanged but the value of Decker and Welker would both take a hit.

 

[B-Deep]

Please let him be a bronco!!!!

 

[Bamac]

Please let him be a bronco!!!!

I bet Manning has been in his ear. He's probably quite the salesman. Aloysius.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

do the broncos need him. Huge hit for any rb on denver too imo..

 

[humpback]

do the broncos need him. Huge hit for any rb on denver too imo..

It would certainly improve their chances of beating the Pats.

 

[B-Deep]

do the broncos need him. Huge hit for any rb on denver too imo..

NEED is a strange wordabsolutely need him, nowill he help them, for sure

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

do the broncos need him. Huge hit for any rb on denver too imo..

It would certainly improve their chances of beating the Pats.

yeah, i dont disagree. I guess my question though is- is that really where they need to upgrade. Welker is going to get a big contract, they could use that money in the defensive backfield or elsewhere.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

while it's true he'll be 32 this year, he's coming off his 2 best career years, and many of his peers, in terms of production, have produced at a high level well into their 30s.

This one is very debatable. There have only been 8 times that a 32 yr old or older WR has hit 100 catches in a season, and Rice had 3 of them and Wayne had 2.100 catches in a season has been accomplished:32: 4 times33: 2 times34: 2 times1200 receiving yards in a season has been accomplished:32: 11 times33: 4 times34: 7 timesWelker should be considered more likely to hit those marks than the average receiver, but the numbers still show that it is more rare than it is common.

jerry rice @ age 40 - 92/1211/7reggie wayne - still goin' strong last year @34 106/1355/5defense rests

 

[cstu]

wow. What would be the impact on D THomas, Decker and Welker's value?!?!?

Thomas unchanged but the value of Decker and Welker would both take a hit.

I think they all take a hit. Just not enough balls to go around to support how they all produced last year. Agree that DT is the least affected though.

 

[cstu]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

 

[Concept Coop]

wow. What would be the impact on D THomas, Decker and Welker's value?!?!?

Thomas unchanged but the value of Decker and Welker would both take a hit.

I think they all take a hit. Just not enough balls to go around to support how they all produced last year. Agree that DT is the least affected though.

I agree. The 80-100 receptions would cut in to everyone. I'd guess Decker hurt the most.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefterFiled to ESPN: Broncos in serious talks, trying to hammer out an agreement with Patriots WR Wes Welker. Decision expected today.

this is like when babe ruth went to the yankeesor when luis tiant went to the yankeesor when wade boggs went to the yankeesor when clemens went to the yankees

 

[Bamac]

...except the Patriots *are* the Yankees.

 

[Anarchy99]

while it's true he'll be 32 this year, he's coming off his 2 best career years, and many of his peers, in terms of production, have produced at a high level well into their 30s.

This one is very debatable. There have only been 8 times that a 32 yr old or older WR has hit 100 catches in a season, and Rice had 3 of them and Wayne had 2.100 catches in a season has been accomplished:32: 4 times33: 2 times34: 2 times1200 receiving yards in a season has been accomplished:32: 11 times33: 4 times34: 7 timesWelker should be considered more likely to hit those marks than the average receiver, but the numbers still show that it is more rare than it is common.

jerry rice @ age 40 - 92/1211/7reggie wayne - still goin' strong last year @34 106/1355/5defense rests

Two = many? I would disagree at that. I'm not really picking a fight here, but there have been way more WRs in their 30s that have declined and/or disappeared than there have been guys that have stayed uber productive. Shelling out big money to receivers past age 32 should be considered a risky proposition. Not saying they can't be productive . . . but teams rightly have to wonder how many years those guys will be able to produce at a top tier level.Put another way, if Welker somehow gets a 5 year / $50 million / half guaranteed contract, would he be earning his keep if he starts putting up 75-800-2 type seasons for that amount of money?

 

[DexterDew]

Denver is not going to pay him unless they plan on using him (not necessarily featuring him). Couple that with my suspicion that Brady has more years left in him than Peyton, then Welker takes a FF hit from mid WR1 in PPR down to high WR2

 

[Ghost Rider]

If this happens, are Boston fans gonna cry that Welker is traitor for going to the enemy, like they did with Ray Allen, Johnny Damon, etc.?

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

cant really argue that Welker is an excellent fit for Denver. he will be great with peyton. Any chance Denver tries to move Decker?

 

[Bamac]

If this happens, are Boston fans gonna cry that Welker is traitor for going to the enemy, like they did with Ray Allen, Johnny Damon, etc.?

Yes. Boston fans are fickle and vengeful (when it comes to sports).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

cant really argue that Welker is an excellent fit for Denver. he will be great with peyton. Any chance Denver tries to move Decker?

Why would they? He's still on his rookie contract and it would defeat the purpose of signing Welker. I think they're loading up Peyton for a Super Bowl run to justify what they are paying him.

 

[flapgreen]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

If the Pats really don't re-sign him, they tried to outsmart themselves this time. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

...except the Patriots *are* the Yankees.

they wish

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

If the Pats really don't re-sign him, they tried to outsmart themselves this time. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

NFL Network was just saying if they lose Welker to Denver, the Pat's backup plan will be to sign Danny Amendola

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If this happens, are Boston fans gonna cry that Welker is traitor for going to the enemy, like they did with Ray Allen, Johnny Damon, etc.?

I can't speak for everybody, but I will.only I'll be cryin' he's a traitah.

 

[Boston]

If this happens, are Boston fans gonna cry that Welker is traitor for going to the enemy, like they did with Ray Allen, Johnny Damon, etc.?

Don't see this happening at all...it really doesn't seem like the Pats are making legit attempts to bring him back...Welker is well respected and if he leaves because the Pats are low-balling him I think all but the dopes will thank him for an unbelievable run with the team...on the flipside if Welker walks and the Pats have an offseason where they don't make legit attempts to upgrade (i.e. to get over the championship hump) than I can really see some animosity being aimed at management...if the result of Brady re-doing his contract and having a ton of cap-space is an offseason full of Steven Gregorys or Joseph Addais that just isn't acceptable...

 

[Boston]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

If the Pats really don't re-sign him, they tried to outsmart themselves this time. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

NFL Network was just saying if they lose Welker to Denver, the Pat's backup plan will be to sign Danny Amendola

I get the feeling this may have been their plan all along should Welker not sign a very team-friendly contract...

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

cant really argue that Welker is an excellent fit for Denver. he will be great with peyton. Any chance Denver tries to move Decker?

why move decker??roll him out there with d-train, and welker replaces stokley.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

If the Pats really don't re-sign him, they tried to outsmart themselves this time. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

NFL Network was just saying if they lose Welker to Denver, the Pat's backup plan will be to sign Danny Amendola

I get the feeling this may have been their plan all along should Welker not sign a very team-friendly contract...

I know everyone likes to call Amendola a Welker clone, but I think he's a distant clone at best. He's not nearly as qucik, strong or fast as Welker.It would obviously make a bad situation a little better but it would be a downgrade imo. Personally I think Welker is the most under-rated WR in the league - dude is not a "system" WR.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I know everyone likes to call Amendola a Welker clone, but I think he's a distant clone at best. He's not nearly as qucik, strong or fast as Welker.

Or as durable. But maybe they figure if they keep Edelman and sign Amendola, that doubles their chances of having a guy who can stay healthy and fill Welker's role.

 

[Anarchy99]

I know everyone likes to call Amendola a Welker clone, but I think he's a distant clone at best. He's not nearly as qucik, strong or fast as Welker.

Or as durable. But maybe they figure if they keep Edelman and sign Amendola, that doubles their chances of having a guy who can stay healthy and fill Welker's role.

In theory, if they had one or two of Amendola, Edelman, or Hernandez healthy each week, they MIGHT not miss Welker that much, but who knows if they could stay on the field enough to make things work.I've said it a million times about the Pats. Ask my opinion of moves on opening day, as that's the team we need to be evaluating, not the one a day into free agency.If Welker gets a Wallace or Bowe like contract, I think the Pats were smart in letting him go. A lot will depend what he gets for a contract (and who the Pats have as a Plan B) as to whether they were smart or insane.

 

[Boston]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheetPer sources: Talks between Wes Welker and #Patriots are over at this point. Welker exploring free agency #Intrigue #FreeAgency

I'm not buying it. It's bs. They're not that dumb.

NFL: Free agent Wes Welker said to be insulted by Patriots' offerWes Welker seems to be the sensitive type.Last week, we heard that the free-agent receiver was still holding a grudge for being underused by the New England Patriots in Game 1 of the 2012 season, during which he went on to be the team's top receiver for the fifth straight year.Now NFL.com is reporting that Welker is unhappy with the Patriots' contract offer, which was "substantially lower" than what he expected.So now it seems Welker might actually be a legitimate possibility for teams in the market for a wide receiver, joining the likes of Greg Jennings and Danny Amendola as one of the top names still out there.Of course, all this alleged unhappiness could just be a ploy to drive his price tag up. Or maybe the five-time Pro Bowl selection truly is insulted by the way he is being treated by the Patriots.Either way, all will be cured once Welker signs his name on the dotted line and starts cashing those sure-to-be-large-enough paychecks from one team or another.

If the Pats really don't re-sign him, they tried to outsmart themselves this time. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

NFL Network was just saying if they lose Welker to Denver, the Pat's backup plan will be to sign Danny Amendola

I get the feeling this may have been their plan all along should Welker not sign a very team-friendly contract...

I know everyone likes to call Amendola a Welker clone, but I think he's a distant clone at best. He's not nearly as qucik, strong or fast as Welker.It would obviously make a bad situation a little better but it would be a downgrade imo. Personally I think Welker is the most under-rated WR in the league - dude is not a "system" WR.

Could not agree more with you about Welker...I think he gets under-rated for many reasons including his size and skin color...the guy is as tough as they come and if he goes to Denver he will put up the exact type of numbers he has with the Pats...I don't think Amendola is Welker but if he can stay on the field (a big issue) he can be very productive...you can't really look at this as a straight-up swap should it happen...if the Pats use the money saved on a big time defender or also adding someone like Jennings than I'm fine with it...yet, if they use the money on bargain-basement shopping that will be BS...

 

[Bamac]

Welker back to Boston to see if Pats will match. Per Mike Giardi

 

[B-Deep]

Welker back to Boston to see if Pats will match. Per Mike Giardi

nooooooooooooooooooooooo!screw them they had their chancePeyton wants you, he'll fight for you!!Brady let you walk away, don't go crawling back!!!!listen to Taylor Swift!!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA4iX5D9Z64you and the pats are never ever ever getting back together!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I've said it a million times about the Pats. Ask my opinion of moves on opening day, as that's the team we need to be evaluating, not the one a day into free agency.If Welker gets a Wallace or Bowe like contract, I think the Pats were smart in letting him go. A lot will depend what he gets for a contract (and who the Pats have as a Plan B) as to whether they were smart or insane.

agree on your points about evaluation and spending.I wonder how low the Pats offer was....7.5 per year and wes wanted at least 9?if denver wants to give 10 a year to a 32 year old wide receiver i cant imagine BB will sweat it.

 

[Boston]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

 

[B-Deep]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

or he likes the pats and wants to give them a last chancethe numbers will telli fear they are going to match

 

[Anarchy99]

I've said it a million times about the Pats. Ask my opinion of moves on opening day, as that's the team we need to be evaluating, not the one a day into free agency.If Welker gets a Wallace or Bowe like contract, I think the Pats were smart in letting him go. A lot will depend what he gets for a contract (and who the Pats have as a Plan B) as to whether they were smart or insane.

agree on your points about evaluation and spending.I wonder how low the Pats offer was....7.5 per year and wes wanted at least 9?if denver wants to give 10 a year to a 32 year old wide receiver i cant imagine BB will sweat it.

I had heard rumors of $4 years / $40 million, but that would really work out to 3 years for $25-$27 million with the extra year mostly for cap relief.

 

[Anarchy99]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

I believe Welker had already tested the market prior to reaching actual free agency . . . so there was not a lot left to the imagination.I also think that this was the Pats plan all along and that they didn't want to risk overpaying. Theoretically, if they offered $10M a year and no one else would pay $6, they could have saved themselves money. Of course, if someone was willing to pay more, they could have made a major tactical error (assuming they really wanted him back at all costs).

 

[Boston]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

I believe Welker had already tested the market prior to reaching actual free agency . . . so there was not a lot left to the imagination.I also think that this was the Pats plan all along and that they didn't want to risk overpaying. Theoretically, if they offered $10M a year and no one else would pay $6, they could have saved themselves money. Of course, if someone was willing to pay more, they could have made a major tactical error (assuming they really wanted him back at all costs).

You're probably right about testing the market and I do think this was their plan all along...always get nervous about letting good players test the market...that's how Curtis Martin ended up a Jet...

 

[Anarchy99]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

I believe Welker had already tested the market prior to reaching actual free agency . . . so there was not a lot left to the imagination.I also think that this was the Pats plan all along and that they didn't want to risk overpaying. Theoretically, if they offered $10M a year and no one else would pay $6, they could have saved themselves money. Of course, if someone was willing to pay more, they could have made a major tactical error (assuming they really wanted him back at all costs).

You're probably right about testing the market and I do think this was their plan all along...always get nervous about letting good players test the market...that's how Curtis Martin ended up a Jet...

It also makess me think that Welker was not blown away by the Broncos offer . . . or else he would have just signed and never looked back.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

while it's true he'll be 32 this year, he's coming off his 2 best career years, and many of his peers, in terms of production, have produced at a high level well into their 30s.

This one is very debatable. There have only been 8 times that a 32 yr old or older WR has hit 100 catches in a season, and Rice had 3 of them and Wayne had 2.100 catches in a season has been accomplished:

32: 4 times

33: 2 times

34: 2 times

1200 receiving yards in a season has been accomplished:

32: 11 times

33: 4 times

34: 7 times

Welker should be considered more likely to hit those marks than the average receiver, but the numbers still show that it is more rare than it is common.

jerry rice @ age 40 - 92/1211/7reggie wayne - still goin' strong last year @34 106/1355/5

defense rests

Two = many? I would disagree at that. I'm not really picking a fight here, but there have been way more WRs in their 30s that have declined and/or disappeared than there have been guys that have stayed uber productive. Shelling out big money to receivers past age 32 should be considered a risky proposition. Not saying they can't be productive . . . but teams rightly have to wonder how many years those guys will be able to produce at a top tier level.Put another way, if Welker somehow gets a 5 year / $50 million / half guaranteed contract, would he be earning his keep if he starts putting up 75-800-2 type seasons for that amount of money?

those are the 2 he mentioned by name.if you're referring to the 'many' in my post, I think I mentioned a list of guys who had also hit the elite 100/1500 mark in a season, of which rice and wayne were 2.

if I really have to do it.....others were:

marvin harrison @34 95/1366/12

andre johnson still going strong @ same age

jimmy smith - didn't get a mention despite 116/1636 season because I didn't think he belonged, but his production remained steady through age 36

rod smith - see jimmy smith 85/1105/6 @35

isaac bruce 74/1098/3 @34

also....

terrell owens 81/1355/15 @34, 72/983/9 @37

irving fryar 86/1316/6 @35

joey galloway 83/1287/10 @34

cris carter 96/1274/9 @35

charlie joiner 70/1188/7 @34

tim brown 91/1165/9 @35

bobby engram 94/1147/6 @34

drew hill 90/1109/4 @35

donald driver 70/1061/6 @34

art monk 71/1049/8 @34

derrick mason 73/1028/7 @35

keenan mccardell 70/917/9 @35

you can place welker anywhere you want in the pantheon of receivers, but these are all guys who maintained their level of production pretty well into their 30s.

not many guys could produce welker numbers @35, but that's mainly because not many guys could produce welker numbers at any age.

if you give welker a 3 year deal you get him at age 32,, 33, 34, and I've just shown that many of his 'peers' in terms o production were still producing at, or past, 34.

if you want to tell me about the % of guys who produced or didn't produce @34, don't show me a population of all nfl receivers -- show me the list populated by those who put up 100+/1300+/6+ @31 and we'll see how they fared @34.

edit: I'll do it myself

jerry rice - on my list

rod smith - on my list

jimmy smith - on my list

reggie wayne - on my list

ed mccaffrey - X

welker - ?

that's an 80% success rate

 

[DepthCharts]

Really must be a slow-market for Welker if he's letting the Pats match the first offer he has received (assuming that's the case)...

I believe Welker had already tested the market prior to reaching actual free agency . . . so there was not a lot left to the imagination.I also think that this was the Pats plan all along and that they didn't want to risk overpaying. Theoretically, if they offered $10M a year and no one else would pay $6, they could have saved themselves money. Of course, if someone was willing to pay more, they could have made a major tactical error (assuming they really wanted him back at all costs).

You're probably right about testing the market and I do think this was their plan all along...always get nervous about letting good players test the market...that's how Curtis Martin ended up a Jet...

It also makess me think that Welker was not blown away by the Broncos offer . . . or else he would have just signed and never looked back.

Didnt Peyton leave Denver and go on to Arizona? (with what appears to be 20Mil guaranteed on the table). I would think leaving is all for negotiations, simply.

 

[devouredbychaos]

lol @ Broncos fans thinking Welker makes you better. Forehead can't win in the cold in January, Welker drops balls when it counts the most in the playoffs. A weaker D and a need for an RB and you spend all your money on an aging slot guy? No thanks.

 

[Bamac]

Welker to Broncos: done. Per Schefter.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter Wes Welker has agreed to terms with Denver Broncos.

 

[Novice2]

You mad bro?

Bwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahauaha